10 College Basketball Teams That Need to Sound the Early-Season Alarm
Just because it's early doesn't mean you shouldn't worry.
If your college basketball team stumbled out of the gate, there's plenty of time to fix it. But these teams better commence to fixing, especially if they entered the season with high expectations. The slope is slippery, and the nonconference schedule doesn't come back for seconds.
By the same token, not every team who loses an early game or two is in dire straits. It's more common than ever for top squads to falter early; many are trying to incorporate young players this time of year, even as they play mid- and low-majors with experienced units. The abundance of fall tournaments only exacerbates the risks.
But we're not talking about aberrations. We're talking about teams that really appear to have something to worry about. They're beginning to announce themselves.
So save the incredulous comments about the North Carolinas and Virginias of the world and check out the 10 teams that really need to break the emergency glass right now.
10. Texas Longhorns
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Preseason rank: Unranked but received votes
Current rank: Unranked (no votes)
Record: 2-2
Losses: Washington (77-71), Texas A&M (84-73)
The entire Longhorn community is in some kind of athletic funk. Unfortunately for Austin, the hoops team hasn't been able to provide much relief from the football team.
The leaders, sophomore point guard Isaiah Taylor and junior center Cameron Ridley, have had good stretches but combine for almost six turnovers a game. Taylor is only managing 30 percent shooting from the field. Ridley is only managing 46 percent shooting from the line.
As a team, they've broken 80 points in a game exactly once thus far, and their 73.3 per-game average is 212th in the nation. It's clear they're missing Myles Turner's scoring pop.
On the positive side, on Thursday Texas avenged its season-opening loss to Washington in the consolation round of the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament. It did so with a more methodical approach than it showed early in the season. Perhaps that's the adjustment it needed.
Another bright spot is freshman Eric Davis, who for the second consecutive game led UT in scoring.
If the Longhorns want to break free of their malaise, they may need to continue to embrace the grind. Said junior guard Javan Felix after the win, per the Associated Press:
"We really pride ourselves on defense and yesterday we didn't really do a good job of that. Tonight we wanted to show ourselves that we were capable of coming out and getting stop after stop, and capitalizing on rebounding and getting the ball out.
"
9. San Diego State Aztecs
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Preseason rank: Unranked but received votes
Current rank: Unranked (no votes)
Record: 4-2
Losses: Utah (81-76), Arkansas-Little Rock (49-43)
It looks like San Diego State will live and die by the same sword all season long.
Outlets including Sports Illustrated predicted the Aztecs would rule the Mountain West. That could still happen—they're are a pretty solid group, well coached under Steve Fisher.
But a team ranked sixth in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom won't go too far if it can only muster 131st nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency.
Translation: Get ready for a season of low scoring.
The Utah loss wasn't terrible; that's a ranked team. Arkansas-Little Rock is another story. San Diego State scored 43 points in that game. That's very bad!
Some of this falls on Malik Pope, whose star-crossed amateur career to date, rife with injuries and underachievement, appears to be continuing apace, if not actively devolving. Thus far he's shooting 27 percent from the field on the season. He has made exactly three free throws. Not what you want from a guy who almost left for the NBA last summer but returned to school amid substantial fanfare.
On Friday, San Diego State took a big step in the right direction by handling No. 14 California, 72-58. It outrebounded the Bears 44-36 and held them to 38 percent shooting. It's a signature win, even if the Aztecs only shot 39 percent themselves and needed 34 points—nearly half their scoring—from bench players to get the job done. (Pope finished 1-7 from the field.)
The Aztecs have to find a way to get the ball in the basket, or else their season will be sprinkled with clunkers. Hopefully Arkansas-Little Rock served as a lesson instead of a harbinger.
8. Rhode Island Rams
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Preseason rank: Unranked but received votes
Current rank: Unranked (no votes)
Record: 3-2
Losses: Valparaiso (58-55), Maryland (86-63)
On the eve of the opening tip, Ram fans had visions of Tyson Wheeler and Cuttino Mobley dancing in their heads. Several sites tabbed Rhode Island to finally return to the Atlantic 10 winner's circle.
Those dreams were quickly doused with cold water. They dropped a close one to Valpo, then got boat-raced by Maryland in the final game of the Cancun Challenge.
To add insult to their own injury, Rams players and coach Dan Hurley drew unwanted headlines for apparently exchanging invectives with Terps players and coaches toward the end of and after the game.
Not the start anyone foresaw in Kingston.
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7. Murray State Racers
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Preseason rank: Unranked
Current rank: Unranked
Record: 4-2
Losses: Georgia (63-52), Weber State (75-59)
Picked by some to finish at or near the top of the Ohio Valley Conference, the Racers may have already submarined any chance of dancing outside of catching Belmont in conference play.
The loss to Weber State was a gut punch, but even their wins haven't been ultra-convincing. Two of their victories came by five points or fewer, and only one had a margin of more than 11, the 50-point blowout of NAIA school Harris Stowe in the season opener.
If you only count wins against, you know, NCAA teams, the Racers average an anemic 68 points per game. That's not what you want.
6. Michigan Wolverines
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Preseason rank: 25
Current rank: Unranked (but received votes)
Record: 3-2
Losses: Xavier (86-70), Connecticut (74-60)
Many, if not all, of the votes the Wolverines received in this week's poll may be about to float away in the wake of their loss to UConn.
Neither Michigan loss was close; those back-to-back defeats came by an average of 15 points. The UConn loss was arguably not even as close as the final score suggested.
The Wolverines took out their frustrations on hapless Charlotte Thursday with a 102-47 drubbing. As good as that bully job probably felt, it's not going to erase the fact that the Wolverines shot 36.2 percent against the only two power-conference teams they've played so far.
Still, Michigan faithful will probably take anything they can get after those two straight losses. Caris Levert's continued sparkling play and a breakout from German freshman Moritz Wagner are good signs for later in the season.
5. Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
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Preseason rank: Unranked
Current rank: Unranked
Record: 0-4
Losses: Dayton (84-53), Evansville (80-65), Alabama A&M (74-56), UT-Rio Grande Valley (83-74)
The Redhawks may not be on many national radars, but they were certainly expected to be a big blip in the Ohio Valley Conference's West division.
Uh, hasn't panned out that way thus far. You can pick the loss you think is most demoralizing. The 31-point crushing at Dayton? Perhaps it was losing to the 2-3 Vaqueros of UT-Rio Grande Valley in a game they were leading at the half.
After the most recent loss, head coach Rick Ray pointed to a lack of low-post scoring as a damning factor. Also, defensive breakdowns. And general offensive inconsistency. And distractions. Curse you, distractions! This is all your fault. At least credit Ray for keeping his eye on the prize.
"Our guys have got to understand that this is a process and don't get flustered with the fact of what our record is. Obviously we all want to do better, but at the end of the day us being a good Ohio Valley Conference team is the ultimate goal.
"
So, yeah. Things to work on. Sound the alarms and sound them good. It should help them to play a home game, which they'll do for the first time this season when they host Loyola Marymount Saturday.
4. LSU Tigers
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Preseason rank: 21
Current rank: 22
Record: 3-2
Losses: Marquette (81-80), NC State (83-72 OT)
With all the losses around the nation, there must have been a full moon this week, for the entire week. That would be unprecedented. Or maybe it was just the spate of early-season tournaments. I don't know, bro. I'm not a scientist.
LSU sustained some heavy damage this week in the form of two squeaker losses. As one might expect, attendant pressure immediately fell on the shoulders of national top super-frosh point-forward prototype alien-human hybrid Ben Simmons. Is he not assertive enough? Is he a bad shooter?
That's all well and good. It's also only part of the story. Against NC State, the Tigers were out-boarded 54-41, with Simmons leading the team with 14. Simmons dished more assists (10) in that game than the rest of the team combined (7).
Furthermore, it's a bit troubling that LSU has managed this record against a schedule that is, according to KenPom, the 311th strongest in the nation. Sure, the losses were close, but should they have been?
3. Wichita State Shockers
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Preseason rank: 10
Current rank: 20
Record: 2-3
Losses: Tulsa (77-67), USC (72-69), Alabama (64-60)
First and foremost, Shocker fans have to hope that forward Anton Grady is OK after he was hospitalized Friday following a scary collision during the Alabama game.
As the Wichita State community hopes for good news on that front, they should probably expect to fall out of the top 25 next week, thanks to those losses to Southern California and Alabama.
No question it has been a bad start, but fans can take heart knowing the Shockers have been inordinately affected by bad luck, at least according to KenPom. Only four D-1 teams fare worse than Wichita State in luck rating, which compares a team's offensive and defensive output rates with actual game outcomes.
Speaking of bad luck, point guard and team leader Fred VanVleet has missed the last three contests with a hamstring injury, and it looks like he may not return until the team's tilt with St. Louis on Dec. 5, at the earliest. Now Grady, the team's second-leading scorer, is presumably out of action for a while as well (and again, everyone should hope that missing PT is the worst thing that happens).
Wichita State still has Ron Baker and company. But they need to hope their luck changes fast. Playing in the weak Missouri Valley Conference, the team can't afford a bad nonconference slate if they want a good seed come March.
2. Indiana Hoosiers
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Preseason rank: 15
Current rank: 13
Record: 4-2
Losses: Wake Forest (82-78), UNLV (72-69)
Indiana might take the biggest poll plunge next week, given that both its losses came since the time when voters ID'd them as the nation's 13th-best team.
The Hoosiers probably want to go back and live in that time. Sometimes these losses come in merciless bunches, and that's what befell IU. One opponent starts the bleeding, and the next thing you know they're picking scraps off your bones. Not pretty.
Maui may never have been uglier for a visitor than it was this week for the Hoosiers. Familiar demons (defense, where they are currently 82nd nationally in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency) combined with a new specter (their 17.5 turnovers per game, good for 335th nationally per NCAA statistics) to haunt IU against Wake Forest and UNLV.
These problems, particularly the defense, are troubling because they appear intractable. Wrote Zach Osterman Wednesday in the Indianapolis Star:
"The critical question [head coach Tom] Crean faces, with Indiana confronting a potentially serious gut check before Thanksgiving, is which problems are fixable, and which are not. ...A trip that could have announced Indiana as a serious national player instead ended in frustration. It’s too early to declare this season in peril, but whatever momentum and good feeling IU brought to Hawaii has washed away, replaced by fresh doubts about Indiana’s program, top to bottom.
"
Yikes.
1. Wisconsin
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Preseason rank: 17
Current rank: Unranked
Record: 4-2
Losses: Western Illinois (69-67), Georgetown (71-61)
It's been ugly so far in Madison.
Even the high points are unattractive. See the Badgers' Wednesday win over Prairie View A&M, in which the teams combined for 45 personal fouls and 31 turnovers. Only a big second-half run put the game away, and Wisconsin managed that despite team leader Nigel Hayes finishing with an uninspiring 10 points on 3-of-11 shooting.
It wasn't much better earlier in the week, when the Badgers survived 17 turnovers and a paltry contribution from their bench (a combined 14 points in 42 minutes) to edge VCU by a single point.
As we all know, Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker are not walking through that door. No one expected the kind of season that got the Badgers to the national title game in 2014-15. But no one expected this, either.
According to Jim Polzin of the Wisconsin State Journal, this is only the third time in coach Bo Ryan's 15 seasons in which the Badgers have lost twice in November. Uneven performance is dragging UW down on both ends of the floor.
Wisconsin "is still searching for an identity as a young roster tries to figure out roles and form some chemistry," Polzin wrote.
With eight freshman and only one senior on the entire roster, that position is understandable. Equally understandable is the notion that "pass the ball to Nigel Hayes" will not buoy the team through these growing pains. And it's not like anyone's going to give them a free pass because they're learning on the proverbial job.
No, Wisconsin will have to right the ship mid-voyage, with nothing but deep, deep waters beneath them in the form of the looming Big Ten schedule. It's a tall task. We'll see what a great coach in Ryan can do with a reeling and diminished band.
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