Way-Too-Early Predictions for the Cinderellas in the 2016 NCAA Tournament

Selection Sunday feels like it's a million miles away, but when it finally arrives, Valparaiso, Evansville and Belmont will be among the biggest potential Cinderella stories to watch.

I know what you're thinking: Cinderellas in November? Have you lost your bleeping mind?

That's fair. It's way too early to be thinking about potential March Madness matchups. Here's the thing, though: By the time January rolls around, it's going to be way too late to actually watch any of these teams on TV.

We have no earthly idea whether a team like North Florida will actually make the tournament or what seed it would get for winning the Atlantic Sun, but the Ospreys have already played Illinois and Louisville and will still play LSU, Dayton, VCU and Arkansas before the end of the calendar year.

After that, it's bye-bye birdies. (Yes, an osprey is a bird.) You can probably find them on ESPN3 more often than not, but can you honestly say with a straight face that you're going to watch North Florida vs. South Carolina Upstate when the docket is loaded with exponentially better options like regular Florida vs. regular South Carolina?

So, while it's certainly too early to be thinking about filling out a bracket, it's never too early to be thinking about the eventual bracket while watching games. You'll only have so many chances to watch these teams face the caliber of opponent they will eventually draw in the tournament, so you might want to start paying attention to these future bracket busters as soon as possible.

Later on in the season, I'll apply my Cinderella criteria to these types of rankings, which are rooted in veteran leadership, three-point shooting, assists, steals and strength of schedule. With less than two weeks of game data available, though, today's criteria is drastically more subjective: If I'm a fan of a projected No. 4 or No. 5 seed, which team would I be most terrified to draw on Selection Sunday?

With that in mind, here are your way-too-early Cinderella rankings.

Note: All teams from the ACC, Atlantic 10, American, Big Ten, Big East, Big 12, Mountain West, Pac-12 and SEC are ineligible for inclusion, as are BYU, Gonzaga and Wichita State.

Honorable Mentions

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UAB Blazers

With virtually everyone returning from last year's roster, I loved UAB's chances of pulling off another big upset this March. Unfortunately, what the Blazers are duplicating thus far is their very lackluster start to the 2014-15 season. They lost to Auburn and had to fight tooth and nail to escape with home wins over Alabama State and Jacksonville State.

They do face Illinois on Friday, which could lead to a rematch with Iowa State on Saturday, but for the time being the Blazers have slipped pretty far back on our radar.

Old Dominion Monarchs

If UAB isn't going to represent Conference USA in the tournament, Old Dominion is most likely to do so. However, the Monarchs were beaten quite soundly by Purdue over the weekend and have yet to show much of a propensity for actually scoring on a regular basis. There are quite a few noteworthy games remaining on their schedule, though, to potentially change our opinion of them.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

If UAB and Old Dominion both fail to win the C-USA title, how about Louisiana Tech? We weren't sure what to expect out of the Bulldogs after losing their head coach and four of last year's six leading scorers, but Tuesday night's win at Ohio State might say as much about where this team is as it says about where the Buckeyes aren't. Intriguing road games against Memphis and Ole Miss in the next few weeks will help further frame this LT picture.

Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks

The ax men have become notorious for slow starts. Over the previous two seasons, they were 4-5 before Thanksgiving and a combined 56-1 from turkey day forward (excluding the NCAA tournament). So far, it's been more of the same, as they were slaughtered by Baylor on opening night before a 10-point loss to Northern Iowa. They're certainly the team to beat in the putrid Southland Conference, but early returns are that the Jacks won't be all that tough to beat in the tournament.

Northern Iowa Panthers

There was some debate over whether Northern Iowa actually qualifies as a Cinderella, given the No. 5 seed that it earned in last year's tournament. The compromise is to give the Panthers an honorable mention, which they very much earned by upsetting No. 1 North Carolina over the weekend. Loaded with seniors like Wes Washpun, Paul Jesperson and Matt Bohannon, this is a team with veteran leadership and tournament experience that absolutely no one will want to face in March.

Whoever Wins the Sun Belt

Texas-Arlington already has shocking wins over Ohio State and Memphis. Arkansas-Little Rock scored an even bigger upset over San Diego State. Louisiana-Lafayette has one of the best mid-major players in the country in Shawn Long. And even without R.J. Hunter and Ryan Harrow, Georgia State has evolved into an annual threat to make some noise.

Who represents this conference in the NCAA tournament? Your guess is probably better than mine. But as long as it's one of those four teams, watch out for an upset or two.

10. Stony Brook Seawolves

Joshua Lindsey-USA TODAY Sports

Noteworthy Upcoming Games: at Notre Dame (Dec. 8), vs. Hofstra (Dec. 20)

Case for Cinderella

There might not be a better minor conference player in the country than Stony Brook's Jameel Warney.

He led the nation in double-doubles last season with 24 of them, and it's business as usual thus far this year. He is averaging 16.8 points, 13.5 rebounds and 3.0 blocks per game.

Unfortunately, it has been just barely not enough on most nights. Warney manhandled future NBA draft pick Damian Jones in taking Vanderbilt to overtime last week, but the Commodores were able to pull away in the extra period. A few days later, Stony Brook lost at Western Kentucky by one point, despite another double-double from Warney.

That's the concern that keeps the Seawolves from knocking on the door of our top five.

Warney has been individually incredible for his entire collegiate career—he's on pace to graduate with roughly 2,100 points and 1,300 rebounds—but Stony Brook has yet to appear in the NCAA tournament. For whatever reason, Warney has been good enough to lead this team to at least 23 wins every year, but not good enough to get over the hump in the America East tournament.

What the Seawolves need is a more efficient Carson Puriefoy and a more assertive Ahmad Walker. Because if March rolls around and those guys are consistently producing at a high level alongside Warney, this is a team that is clearly capable of beating a Top 25 program like Vanderbilt.

Way back in 2005, the America East Conference had a dynamic duo in Vermont's Taylor Coppenrath and T.J. Sorrentine that earned a No. 13 seed and upset Syracuse in the opening round. Let's just say it wouldn't take much for Puriefoy to evolve into the Sorrentine to Warney's Coppenrath.

9. UC Irvine Anteaters

John Raoux/Associated Press

Noteworthy Upcoming Games: Wooden Legacy (Nov. 26-28), at Oregon (Dec. 15), at Kansas (Dec. 29)

Case for Cinderella

Everyone knows and loves 7'6" Mamadou Ndiaye, but the Anteaters are more than just one man who alters or blocks seemingly every shot when he's on the court.

In fact, this is one of those veteran, defensive-minded teams with an intentionally difficult strength of schedule that will score very well in the Cinderella rankings all season long.

UC Irvine's primary six-man rotation consists of three seniors and three juniors. Two of them—Luke Nelson and Alex Young—are every bit as crucial to this team's success as Ndiaye. The backcourt duo is currently averaging 24.0 points, 9.8 assists, 8.0 rebounds and 3.3 steals per game while shooting 38.9 percent from three-point range.

At this very early stage in the season, though, UC Irvine is No. 1 in the nation in defensive effective field-goal percentage, and you can largely thank the big man for that.

Opponents are having an absolute nightmare of a time trying to score in the paint, as Loyola Marymount and Santa Clara each shot below 29 percent from inside the arc against UC Irvine. And with the security of Ndiaye to erase any mistakes made on the perimeter, UC Irvine's guards are able to really step out to contest the three without fear of a drive that results in an easy bucket.

Health has been an issue throughout Ndiaye's college career, though, and between conditioning and foul trouble, it's pretty rare to see him log more than 25 minutes in a game. Thus, it's tough to put a lot of faith in him making a very significant impact come tournament time.

Even if we exclude Ndiaye, the Anteaters have enough talent to do some damage. So if he's out there at full strength in March, it's hardly crazy to think UC Irvine could make the Sweet 16 as a No. 12 or No. 13 seed.

8. Columbia Lions

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Noteworthy Upcoming Games: at Bucknell (Dec. 2), vs. Saint Joseph's (Dec. 4), at Stony Brook (Jan. 2)

Case for Cinderella

The Lions do already have two losses, but they're what we like to refer to as acceptable accidents. They played well in true road games against major conference opponents, falling by a 10-point margin to (surprisingly respectable) Kansas State and pushing Northwestern to overtime before coming up just short.

What's particularly impressive is that Columbia is already playing at a high level, even though two of its most important players didn't appear in a single game last season.

Alex Rosenberg might be the Ivy League Player of the Year this season, but he missed all of 2014-15 with a broken foot, withdrawing from the school to retain his final year of eligibility. Similarly, Grant Mullins missed all of last season and the end of the 2013-14 season due to a serious concussion.

Through five games in 2015-16, though, that duo is leading the team in points and each averaging at least 28 minutes per game.

The Lions also have a quality stretch 4 in Luke Petrasek, as well as an outstanding guard in Maodo Lo, who admirably led this team last season with 18.4 points per game. Lo is already defending extremely well (13 steals in five games), but once he starts really heating up on offense, Columbia is going to be an impossibly difficult team to beat.

7. South Dakota State Jackrabbits

Rick Bowmer/Associated Press

Noteworthy Upcoming Games: at Minnesota (Dec. 8), at Texas Tech (Dec. 16)

Case for Cinderella

If you're looking for a minor conference team that just might mess around and enter the NCAA tournament with an undefeated record, you're probably not going to find a better option than South Dakota State.

Yes, the "strength" of schedule has a lot to do with that. The Jackrabbits do still have two true road games remaining against (bottom tier) major conference programs, but they also already have road wins over Illinois State and TCU. If they can eke out two more wins over Minnesota and Texas Tech, they should be favored in every remaining game.

But it should go without saying that they'll be favored in all those games because they are pretty good. Between Wisconsin transfer George Marshall, former JUCO transfers Deondre Parks and Keaton Moffitt and four-year Jackrabbit Jake Bittle, South Dakota State is one of those experienced minor conference teams we always love.

It's a freshman, though, who might be most important to this team's cause.

All those aforementioned guys are guards 6'5" or shorter, so the graduation of Cody Larson could have left this team without much of a post presence. Fortunately, Mike Daum has been great in the frontcourt, averaging 12.0 points and 6.8 rebounds in just 18.2 minutes per game.

In what could otherwise be a bit of a down year in the Summit League, Daum could be the missing link that propels South Dakota State to its third tournament appearance in five years. The Jackrabbits might not have Nate Wolters anymore, but with better defense and a more well-rounded offense, they could be an even tougher out in March.

6. Yale Bulldogs

Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press

Noteworthy Upcoming Games: at Duke (Nov. 25), at USC (Dec. 13)

Case for Cinderella

Yale was already pretty comfortably on our radar, but the Bulldogs really caught our attention by nearly winning at SMU on Sunday night.

This team is loaded with veterans. Of the eight players who logged at least four minutes against SMU, five were seniors and two were juniors.

However, sophomore guard Makai Mason might be the best of the bunch. Yale big man Justin Sears is the reigning Ivy League Player of the Year, but he's playing second fiddle to Mason so far. The combo guard is averaging 20.0 points and 4.3 assists per game, including 24.0 and 7.0 against the Mustangs.

The Bulldogs also have one of the best three-point shooters in the country in Jack Montague. The senior came into this season shooting 45.6 percent from beyond the arc in his career, but he has already made 16-of-27 (59.3 percent) this year.

And not that they miss all that often, but the Bulldogs have been dominant on the offensive glass, ranking fifth in the nation with a 45.6 percent offensive rebound rate.

The only real question when it comes to the tournament is whether Yale can handle the spotlight if it gets there. This is James Jones' 17th season as the head coach at Yale, but this program hasn't been to the NCAA tournament since two years before he was born.

Too much is often made of the historical component of a game involving athletes who were born in the 1990s, but you have to think the guys at Yale are smart enough to know and appreciate how significant it would be for them to go dancing. We just hope they don't become content with just making the tournament, because the Bulldogs have the talent to be every bit the Ivy League menace that Harvard has been in recent years.

5. North Florida Ospreys

Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports

Noteworthy Upcoming Games: at LSU (Dec. 2), at Dayton (Dec. 5), at Arkansas (Dec. 22), at VCU (Dec. 30)

Case for Cinderella

More often than not, to do anything in the NCAA tournament as a minor conference team, you need to have "that guy." I'm not saying you need Stephen Curry 2.0 to make a deep run, but you need a guy who everyone in the world knows you're going through when a big play is simply non-negotiable.

North Florida has perhaps the best "that guy" in the country in Dallas Moore.

It might not be a name you know yet, but you should learn it. Through five games, Moore is averaging 22.0 points, 6.6 assists and 1.4 turnovers while shooting 48.4 percent from three-point range. In each of his first four games, he scored at least 21 points and shot at least 50 percent from beyond the arc—and two of those games were against Illinois and Louisville, so it's not like I'm trying to sell you on some dude who absolutely blew up against a D-II school.

Just as important as the "that guy" are the "those guys," and the Ospreys have plenty of them, too. 

Moore is one of just four players on the roster shooting at least 46 percent from three-point range. In fact, prior to the disappointing loss at Saint Louis on Tuesday, the Ospreys were shooting 48.0 percent from downtown as a team and averaging 14.8 made triples per contest. If they keep that up for the entire season, they would set the all-time record for made three-pointers in a season (currently 442) before the NCAA tournament even begins.

Along with Moore, Trent Mackey is 20-of-32 (62.5 percent!), Chris Davenport is 6-of-13 (46.2 percent) and Beau Beech—the team's best three-point weapon in each of the past two seasons—is 13-of-27 (48.1 percent).

There's really no other way to put it: If you love the long ball, you should love North Florida. Come hell or high water, the Ospreys are going to shoot the blood out of the ball, which, if nothing else, will make for a wildly entertaining No. 2 vs No. 15 type of tournament game.

4. Hofstra Pride

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Noteworthy Upcoming Games: at Stony Brook (Dec. 20)

Case for Cinderella

In February 2014, I had the privilege of speaking with Villanova head coach Jay Wright, during which time we briefly discussed the then-current state of Hofstra—the school that gave him his first head coaching job. Though the Pride were nearing the end of their third consecutive season with at least 22 losses, Wright could see the light.

"I'm always a Hofstra fan," Wright said. "I'll tell you what, Hofstra's gonna be good. They've got some good transfers sitting out and a great coach in Joe Mihalich. The league has changed where I think they can win that league. I promise you, those guys are going to be really good in the next couple of years."

Based on Hofstra's 20-14 record last season and its very impressive early win over Florida State this year, I'm going to go ahead and let Wright do all of my preseason predictions from now on.

Those transfers he was talking about are very much the reason for the Pride's success.

Juan'ya Green and Ameen Tanksley were with Mihalich at Niagara and chose to follow him to Hofstra. The duo currently leads the team in scoring with 19.2 points and 14.8 points, respectively.

Not far behind them is a cold-blooded assassin in Brian Bernardi—a transfer from SMU who also sat out the 2013-14 season. He's been good for 14.6 points per game this season and is shooting 56.3 percent from beyond the arc. Fourth-leading scorer Denton Koon is also a transfer. He spent his first two-plus seasons at Princeton, but is now scoring better than 12 per game with the Pride.

Unfortunately, if you haven't already seen Hofstra play this season, you might not get the chance to. Not only is the rest of its schedule pretty lackluster, but according to ESPN, the Dec. 9 game against Siena is the only one we'll even have the option of catching on ESPN3.

If you can't take in a Pride game in person, at least keep an eye on their box scores. They aren't quite as hopelessly reliant on the three ball as North Florida, but this is one of the better shooting teams in the country.

3. Belmont Bruins

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Noteworthy Upcoming Games: at BYU (Nov. 28), at Valparaiso (Dec. 3), vs. Valparaiso (Dec. 28)

Case for Cinderella

Rick Byrd is still the head coach, so, yes, Belmont is one of the top Cinderella candidates in the country for at least an 11th consecutive season.

Perhaps this will be the year the Bruins actually win a tournament game.

A very "lite" version of the championship-caliber Boston Celtics and Miami Heat that we've seen in the past decade, Belmont has a great Big Three.

Austin Luke is the primary ball-handler and the biggest positive difference over last season. He had 22 points and 21 assists in his entire freshman season, but the sophomore point guard has already more than doubled both of those totals with 46 points and 48 assists in just six games. Replacing the graduating Reece Chamberlain (six assists per game last year) was going to be Belmont's biggest challenge in 2015-16, but the Bruins might have actually upgraded.

Craig Bradshaw is their best three-point weapon for a second straight season, as well as their best defender and a complementary passer and rebounder. Coupled with the fact that it feels like he has been playing for Belmont for close to a decade, the manner in which he checks so many boxes for this team makes him a minor conference version of Wichita State's Ron Baker.

But the star of the show so far has been junior forward Evan Bradds.

He is shooting a mind-boggling 75.7 percent from the field in averaging 21.0 points and 8.0 rebounds per game. Of course, this is nothing new for him. He shot 76.6 percent from two-point range in conference play last season and ranked second in the nation in both effective field-goal percentage and true-shooting percentage, according to KenPom.com.

Toss in sophomore forward Amanze Egekeze averaging 12.0 points in 20.7 minutes per game and Taylor Barnette draining a few triples in most games and Belmont has one of the most balanced and potent offensive attacks in the country.

2. Evansville Purple Aces

Scott Sewell-USA TODAY Sports

Noteworthy Upcoming Games: Wooden Legacy (Nov. 26-28), at Arkansas (Dec. 8), at Fresno State (Dec. 20), at Wichita State (Jan. 6), vs. Wichita State (Jan. 31)

Case for Cinderella

Great as Belmont's balanced attack is, it wasn't enough to overcome Evansville's unstoppable duo on Saturday night.

The Bruins fell to the Purple Aces by a score of 93-88, thanks in large part to 53 points from D.J. Balentine and Egidijus Mockevicius.

If you've paid any attention whatsoever to Evansville over the past two years, though, this is far from shocking. Mockevicius is putting up more points than we're accustomed to seeing, but Balentine averaged 20.1 points per game last year and 22.8 the year before that. The only unusual aspect of his game thus far is that his three-point shooting isn't anywhere near as good as it was the past three years, but it's also only been three games. He'll come around.

Meanwhile, Mockevicius is once again a double-double monster. He had 20 of them last season and is batting 1.000 in the category this year, averaging 21.3 points, 13.0 rebounds and 3.0 blocks per game. Like Belmont's Evan Bradds, Mockevicius rarely misses, shooting 72.7 percent from the field.

His improvement from great numbers to absurd numbers certainly helps Evansville's case as a Cinderella candidate, but the bigger news is the development of the supporting cast.

Balentine and Mockevicius have been a great one-two punch, but they've been lacking a third leg to stand on, if you will. No other player averaged better than 7.5 points or 4.3 rebounds per game last season, but Mislav Brzoja and Jaylon Brown appear to be breaking out a bit as juniors. The former is averaging 12.7 points and 6.7 rebounds per game while the latter is very efficiently scoring 10.0 per game on 63.2 percent shooting.

We'll get a good look this week at how well the Purple Aces can hang with the big boys, as they'll face Providence on Thursday before a potential showdown with Arizona in the semifinals. Regardless of what we see in the Wooden Legacy, look for Evansville to be the biggest challenger to Wichita State in the Missouri Valley Conference this year, possibly resulting in an at-large bid.

1. Valparaiso Crusaders

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Noteworthy Upcoming Games: vs. Belmont (Dec. 3), at Belmont (Dec. 28)

Case for Cinderella

It's interesting how many of these Top 10 teams will end up playing one another this season. ESPN may have burned the BracketBusters event to the ground three years ago (Why?!), but it seems the best mid-major programs have taken it upon themselves to scatter the ashes throughout the year.

There are a lot of quality programs from likely one-bid leagues who could do some damage in the 2016 NCAA tournament, but none is even remotely as dangerous as Valparaiso.

The Crusaders were already a very good team last year. They went 28-5 to earn a No. 13 seed in the Big Dance where they came oh so close to upsetting Maryland.

Usually, that's the end of the line. A minor conference team gradually gets good enough and experienced enough to put up a real fight against a top-notch team before immediately going back to the drawing board after losing a ton of seniors.

But Valparaiso only had one noteworthy senior (Vashil Fernandez) on last year's roster, and he was granted an additional year of eligibility this summer. Literally every player who scored at least 30 points in 2014-15 is back for another year, and Valpo even added LSU transfer Shane Hammink to what might be the most intact roster in the country.

It's what led me to put Valparaiso at No. 6 on my offseason list of "under-the-radar" teams most likely to do serious damage this season, and thus far my only regret is not putting the Crusaders even higher. They already have true road wins over teams No. 4 (Oregon State) and No. 3 (Rhode Island) from that list, and their only loss came in a hard-fought road battle against team No. 1 (Oregon).

Led by Kyle Wiltjer clone Alec Peters, this team is frighteningly good, especially on defense. Unless they get hit by the injury bug or really stumble in Horizon League play, the Crusaders could be in a position to do what Wichita State did three years ago: Earn a No. 9 seed before advancing all the way to the Final Four.

All statistics are current through Nov. 24 games.

Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.