
UNC Basketball: Early Concerns for Tar Heels in 2015-16
Despite coming into the 2015-16 season with high expectations, there are already concerns surrounding the North Carolina Tar Heels.
The preseason No. 1 team in the nation had three dominant wins over inferior opponents before dropping a road game to Northern Iowa. The neutral-court win over Northwestern also featured some sloppy play early before UNC finally pulled away in the second half.
Unlike college football, however, a few bad showings earlier in the year will not derail a season. There is also a whole lot to like from this group, including impressive frontcourt play, resilience without Marcus Paige and the recent emergence of Justin Jackson.
The Tar Heels are still a top contender for a national title and should remain in this conversation in March. They will be back in action Tuesday against Kansas State before preparing for a highly anticipated home battle against Maryland.
Still, there are certainly question marks about the team's play through the first five games of the season. Here is a look at the biggest concerns so far for the Tar Heels.
Perimeter Defense
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This is the primary issue for North Carolina in the early going, and it seems like something that will haunt the team throughout the year if it does not improve.
Northern Iowa went 11-of-28 (39.3 percent) from behind the arc against the Tar Heels, while Northwestern knocked down 45 percent of its attempts. All five opponents have hit at least nine three-pointers so far this season, and many of them have been way too open of looks.
Meanwhile, the perimeter defense has been bad even when opposing players are taking shots from deep. The guards have been beat off the dribble, while the help defense has been slow or nonexistent. This has nothing to do with a lack of skill but instead a lack of focus from the players on the court.
When guards Devin Coleman, Matt Bohannon, Wes Washpun and Tre Demps all score at least 19 points against this defense, there will be some serious problems once ACC play begins.
Outside Shooting
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One of the big problems for last year's team was the inability of anyone outside of Marcus Paige to shoot consistently from the perimeter. When Paige went down with a wrist injury, the question was whether anyone could step up from beyond the arc.
Despite some hot shooting by Nate Britt early (and to a lesser extent Joel Berry and Theo Pinson), this is still a group that doesn't provide much from the perimeter.
After the win over Northwestern, North Carolina is shooting just 32.6 percent from three-point range. This is not going to get it done against quality opponents.
Britt began the year 8-of-12 from three-point range but has come back to earth with a 2-of-8 mark in his last two games. Justin Jackson, who showed promise in this area at the end of last season, is just 4-of-19 on the season.
Paige will obviously provide a major boost, but with freshman Kenny Williams not doing enough to earn regular playing time, three-point shooting will be an issue all season.
Shot Selection
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Not only have the Tar Heels missed a high percentage of three-point shots, they are also forcing way too many of them and other long jump shots unnecessarily.
This team as currently constructed is built on inside scoring. Brice Johnson, Kennedy Meeks and Isaiah Hicks know how to finish near the basket, while perimeter players like Justin Jackson and Theo Pinson are also at their best when driving to the rim.
The offensive problems happen when the players fail to get to the paint.
Pinson has showcased his value as a passer in recent games, but eight of his last 10 shots have come from beyond the arc. With his athleticism and slashing ability, this is almost a crime. Joel Berry, Nate Britt and even Jackson at times have settled for bad shots from the outside when it would be better to either drive or pass the ball.
Although there won't always be an easy lane to the basket, there is nothing good about taking a bad shot.
Lack of Depth
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North Carolina has showcased a lot of balance this season, highlighted Monday with six players finishing in double figures. Of course, it is important not to confuse balance with depth.
Head coach Roy Williams has been relying on seven players this season, with a few more coming in for short bursts or in blowouts. Joel James has been limited to just seven minutes in the last two games, Kenny Williams has had nine and Luke Maye has barely been more active than the walk-ons.
To be fair, the five starters plus Nate Britt and Isaiah Hicks have been far ahead of the rest of the roster and don't necessarily deserve to be taken out of games. However, it is a long year, and North Carolina plays an extremely fast tempo. This could create some wear and tear.
There were a number of problems against Northern Iowa, but fatigue might have been an issue as the Tar Heels turned a 16-point second-half lead into a four-point loss.
Beyond fatigue, it seems clear North Carolina would be in rough shape if it sustained another key injury. Based on the team's luck in this area over the past couple of seasons, this is something that could become a major issue down the line unless someone else steps up.
What Happens When Marcus Paige Returns?
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Most fans aren't really "concerned" about adding an All-American-caliber player to the lineup. Marcus Paige has proven his ability as a scorer and a leader over his past three years in college, and his return represents a major upgrade.
With that said, the dynamic will be different on both ends of the court.
Will Justin Jackson continue the aggressiveness he has shown over the past couple of games, or will he fade back into a secondary role? How will Joel Berry or Theo Pinson react to going to the bench and seeing reduced playing time? Would smaller lineups alongside Berry or Nate Britt lead to more problems defensively?
These questions and more come along with the return of Paige to the lineup, not to mention the fact the senior might be rusty in his first few games and possibly beyond. While you certainly want him back, not everything will automatically be perfect.
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