Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Texas Longhorns Complete Game Preview
Clinging to their last hopes of reaching a bowl, the Texas Longhorns will try to pick up their fifth win of the season when they host Texas Tech on Thanksgiving.
Charlie Strong's team has dug itself quite the hole. The Horns dropped key road matchups to both Iowa State and West Virginia, falling to 4-6 with two games to play. Now the team's postseason hopes ride on beating both the Red Raiders and Baylor, the Big 12's two highest-scoring teams.
Meanwhile, having already clinched a bowl berth, Kliff Kingsbury's group is hoping to end its season with a splashy win on national television. Killing the Longhorns' postseason dreams would certainly qualify.
The Horns have been feisty at home, but they'll need to play a complete game to do so.
Date: Thursday, Nov. 26
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, Texas
TV: Fox Sports 1
Line: Texas -1.5, according to Odds Shark
Texas Tech Keys to Victory
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Run the Ball
Texas has been hemorrhaging yards on the ground as it's dropped two of its last three. Iowa State, West Virginia and even Kansas have carved the Longhorns up for at least 192 yards, wearing out Strong's defense as the offense struggles to stay on the field.
If DeAndre Washington can get going early, the Horns will have no answer for this offense.
Figure Out How to Get Pressure
Coming into this game, the Red Raiders have accrued just 15 sacks in 11 games. On both a per-game and aggregate basis, this is by far the worst team in the conference at getting to the quarterback, per CFBStats.com.
However, there's hope for Kingsbury's team in this one. West Virginia has also struggled to get to the quarterback but was able to get a strip-sack on Jerrod Heard that was returned for a touchdown. Texas' young quarterback will try to force plays when he's in trouble, and the Red Raiders have to figure out how to make him press.
Win on First Down
Running backs D'Onta Foreman and Johnathan Gray, along with right guard Patrick Vahe, are all expected to sit out Thursday. Those are three of the most important contributors to Texas' rushing attack, and at least two freshmen will try to fill the void they leave behind.
That'll mean the 'Horns will try to structure their game plan more around the quarterback run game with Heard and Tyrone Swoopes. Keeping Texas in 3rd-and-long situations will force Texas' quarterbacks to throw the ball, which they've shown they really can't do this season.
Texas Keys to Victory
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Get off the Field on Third Down
Per CFBStats.com, Texas and Texas Tech are the two worst third-down defenses in the Big 12. That's a little more problematic for the Longhorn defense, which will have to chase around Patrick Mahomes while the other side of the ball tries to deal with the absence of leading rusher Foreman. Keeping Mahomes contained will be key to getting this group off the field.
Avoid Dumb Mistakes
Five turnovers and seven untimely penalties ruined Texas' upset bid at West Virginia. Otherwise, the game plan was there, as the Mountaineers had no solution for the Longhorn run game. Texas was previously pretty careful with the ball, and everyone has to make a concerted effort to play a cleaner game in this must-win situation.
Feed John Burt
This dead horse cannot be beaten enough. Per CFBStats.com, freshman deep threat John Burt ranks fourth in the conference with 20.65 yards per catch. However, he's only averaging two catches per game, which is just insane.
Good things happen when Texas gets this kid involved. Don't make this complicated.
Texas Tech Players to Watch
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RB DeAndre Washington
Washington has a great chance to end his stellar regular season with a bang. Texas has been worked over by Iowa State's Mike Warren and West Virginia's Wendell Smallwood, both similar runners to Washingthon, in its last two losses. The senior has the potential to control this game.
QB Patrick Mahomes
Here comes another talented in-state quarterback that Texas paid no mind to. Per 247Sports, the 'Horns never even offered Mahomes, who trails only TCU's Trevone Boykin in terms of total offense in the conference. After being knocked out of last year's game, he should be plenty motivated to stick it to Texas on Thanksgiving.
LB Micah Awe
The Red Raiders still don't have much of a defense, but they do have Micah Awe. The senior linebacker currently leads the Big 12 in tackles and, as noted by Bleacher Report's Brandon Chatmon, has recorded at least seven tackles in nine of 11 games this season. He and Pete Robertson quietly form a pretty fearsome duo at that linebacker spot.
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Texas Players to Watch
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RB Chris Warren/RB Kirk Johnson
With Gray and Foreman ailing, the freshmen will carry the load in Texas' backfield. At over 230 pounds, Warren is the favorite for early-down work, but don't be surprised to see Johnson pile up the touches. A SPARQ freak, he has the hands and explosiveness to be a weapon in this one.
LB Malik Jefferson
Plagued by a stomach virus, Jefferson hasn't been the same since his dominant performance against Oklahoma. At his best, he's a do-it-all linebacker with the ability to limit Mahomes' opportunities outside of the pocket. If he's finally feeling right, expect a strong showing.
WR John Burt
We're going all freshmen this week because, well, that's all Texas has. Burt has absolutely earned more chances, and his ability to bust loose on play action should come in handy given Tech's struggles in that department. Allowing 5.68 yards per carry and over eight yards per pass, the Red Raiders are absolutely vulnerable to a game-breaker from Burt.
What They're Saying
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Texas Tech
Kliff Kingsbury during his Monday press conference on Texas' ability to step up and play with anybody in the country:
"They're one of those teams that's talented enough to beat anybody in the country on a given day. You've seen that with some of the games they've had, and I think they struggle with the consistency similar to what we have with some of their younger players, but all very talented. You know you're going to get their best shot Senior Day. A big game for them trying to stay bowl eligible. So we know it will be a tough task.
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Kingsbury, later in the same presser, on the Red Raiders' defensive improvement against Kansas State carrying over:
"I thought they did a good job. We committed to taking away the run, and you saw that. They hit some pass plays that they probably haven't been hitting previously. But I thought they did a good job of taking advantage of some things that we were willing to give up to try to take away the run. I'm sure it will be similar this week. We're going to have to sell out in some areas to try to stop their running attack with their quarterback and with their running backs. But I thought we tackled better, and I thought we played more physical. We didn't back down like we did against West Virginia.
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Texas
Charlie Strong on the team's sense of urgency during his Monday press conference:
"Oh, they understand that. I mean, there's two games left, and they know how important these two games are, and there's no reason for them not to understand that. But they do understand how important these next two games are. But we've got to take this one first, and then we'll worry about the next one.
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Strong addressing the Miami rumors during the same press conference (h/t San Antonio Express-News Mike Finger)
"I don’t run from anything. When you work so hard to get in this position, nothing’s ever (too) tough. You grind it out.
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Prediction
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Even without their most explosive offensive player, the Longhorns will ride a healthy defense to a narrow home victory on Thanksgiving.
The absences of Foreman, Gray and Vahe will get a ton of attention this week, especially because Foreman has been so good. The sophomore, who had hand surgery last week, has carried this offense at times with three runs of 65 yards or more this season.
But while the offense is a little banged up, the Horns are getting healthy on the other side of the ball. Versatile linebacker Edwin Freeman will finally return from his shoulder injury, and a slew of other banged-up players should be feeling much more spry after almost two weeks of rest.
Most of all, Jefferson should finally be back to normal after a month-long stomach issue. The coaches are still playing this close to the chest, but it'd be surprising to see his ailment plague him for what's now been almost a month and a half. He and Freeman each bring speed that'll be necessary to slowing down Mahomes.
Then there's the Red Raiders' 121st-ranked defense, per Football Outsiders S&P+ statistic. That's worse than California and barely better than Kansas, two teams that combined to give up 103 points to the 'Horns.
This is the kind of game where one or two stops will determine the outcome. At home, the 'Horns are far more likely to get that done.
Texas 44, Texas Tech 35
Unless otherwise noted, all stats and information courtesy of TexasSports.com and TexasTech.com.
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