2016 NFL Draft: Updated Prospect Radar Post-Week 11

The college football regular season is basically over. It's dusk for the FBS and its prospects. In the NFL, 15 teams have already lost six games. If you aren't a double-digit-win team, it's hard to make it to the playoffs, and about half of the league is already disqualified for that prerequisite or is right on the edge.

What's all this mean? Draft season is approaching. We're now in our 11th edition of this weekly piece covering the draft stock watch.

This week, we have two sliding senior prospects who haven't been able to meet their hype due to performance and injury recovery. On a lighter note, we also feature four senior rising prospects, just in time to catch them at least one more time in the 2015 season. 

Stock Up: Cyrus Jones, CB, Alabama

Butch Dill/Associated Press

At certain schools and with certain coaches, players at specific positions get a label. For example, before Aaron Rodgers, there was a "Jeff Tedford quarterback" narrative. Tedford coached Akili Smith and Joey Harrington at Oregon, David Carr at Fresno State and Kyler Boller at California, the same school Rodgers went to. All four of those quarterbacks were looked at as players who had either "busted" or were on pace to bust before the 2005 NFL draft.

Many had thought Rodgers was worthy of the first overall pick, but he slipped to the 24th overall pick, which was held by the Green Bay Packers. Was it because Tedford was his head coach? If it wasn't the main factor, the media still discussed it.

Right now, the cornerback position for Nick Saban is similar to the Tedford quarterback dilemma. There isn't a better defensive backs coach than Saban, but his track record of pumping in talent at the position with his current program isn't great.

The first Alabama cornerback drafted in the Saban era was Javier Arenas, who was taken 50th overall in 2010 and is now out of the league. Then there was Dre Kirkpatrick, a fourth-year player who was taken 17th overall and is just now a full-time starter. DeQuan Menzie was a fifth-round pick in 2012 and also is out of the NFL. The final corner on the list is Dee Milliner, who was the ninth overall pick in 2013 and has started in two games over the last two years.

With that being said, Cyrus Jones might break the Saban mold. He has started full time for two seasons and also started at times in 2013 as a true sophomore. If nothing else, he's a cornerback who is a fluid mover and can make things happen with the ball in his hand. He only has 28 yards on six interceptions in his career, but he took back two punt returns for scores against Charleston Southern in his final home game for the Crimson Tide Saturday.

He now leads the FBS in that category and looks like a legitimate draft prospect on two sides of the ball. If he doesn't stick as an outside corner, which is questionable due to his 5'10" height, than his fallback can be as a return specialist. A high floor will make it hard for an NFL squad to overlook him on draft day.

Current draft projection: Fourth round

Stock Down: Dadi Nicolas, EDGE, Virginia Tech

Darron Cummings/Associated Press

One of my favorite pass-rushers heading into 2015 was Dadi Nicolas. He was known to be undersized (6'3", 223 lbs) from an NFL prospect perspective, but we've seen some edge defenders go high despite their height and weight in recent years. Two that stick out are Vic Beasley, who was drafted in the first round by the Atlanta Falcons this past draft, and Melvin Ingram, who was drafted in the first round by the San Diego Chargers in 2012.

Ingram was actually my comparison for the Virginia Tech defensive end, but Nicolas just hasn't lived up to the hype. At times, the Hokies play him out of position as an interior defensive lineman, but the fact that he's only been able to post one sack as a senior is disheartening. Over and over, he's washed in the run game, as his size limits him in the trenches.

It's gotten to the point where Nicolas might only be a pass-rushing specialist only at the next level. Beasley and Ingram are full-time players, which is why they went in the top 20. In my opinion, Nicolas is going to stick around in the third or fourth round as a 3-4 outside linebacker. He can't play anything else with his length and strength issues.

If he's able to add 15 or 20 pounds, he can be a Jacquies Smith type, but that's his peak. He's taken a far tumble from the borderline first-round pick we thought he was going to be. Nicolas, even on the field, looks frustrated. Last weekend in a game versus North Carolina that eventually went into overtime, he slapped down a referee's arm during the declaration of a penalty, which led to even more castigation.

Current draft projection: Fourth round

Stock Up: Vernon Adams, QB, Oregon

Ryan Kang/Associated Press

At the beginning of the season, I didn't believe in Vernon Adams. His tape from Eastern Washington, while prolific, didn't translate much to the NFL, as he was throwing to wide-open men more often than not. After switching schools to Oregon as a graduate transfer, some in the media had high hopes for him.

We've seen Johnny Manziel go high in the draft recently, and Russell Wilson went to the last two Super Bowls. There has never been a better time to be an undersized scrambler. Even a player such as Tyrod Taylor, who was brought off the street, won a starting gig in Buffalo this year.

The problem for Adams early on was injury. He was hurt in the season-opener for the Ducks against Eastern Washington, his former school. Against Michigan State, he clearly wasn't healthy, which led to a two-interception game in a three-point loss to the Spartans. He then sat a week before a 2-of-7 performance against Utah. After the matchup with the Utes, he missed the next two games.

Oregon started 3-3, with a 2-3 record when Adams wasn't healthy. Since he has returned a second time, though, the team has rattled off five wins with 18 touchdowns to six interceptions from the FCS transfer. Against Stanford and USC, the Ducks' last two opponents, Adams completed more than 80 percent of his passes. 

Playing Power Five football, he's being asked to do a lot more than he ever did at Eastern Washington. He now has to buy time for himself, and his playmaking ability is shining through as of late. He's able to throw off any platform, which was really Tajh Boyd's only positive when he was drafted out of Clemson in the sixth round in 2014. If Boyd could go that high, Adams should too.

A team with a mobile quarterback should welcome him in with open arms. Teams such as Tennessee, Seattle and whoever is picking Paxton Lynch of Memphis would be the first places I'd look for as landing spots.

Current draft projection: Sixth round

Stock Up: Aaron Green, RB, TCU

Charlie Neibergall/Associated Press

Who? Aaron Green? If you've heard studio shows talk about the College Football Playoff, rarely did his name come up when discussing the Horned Frogs' potent offense. It was all about Trevone Boykin, their quarterback who is now hurt, or Josh Doctson, their receiver who is also injured. Last Saturday, against Oklahoma, the Frogs were able to keep it within a point of the Sooners.

How? A lot of it had to do with the ground presence of Green, who cracked the 100-yard mark in back-to-back weeks and also scored on Oklahoma. He also managed to break every scholarship player's ankles on the same play.

He's old as a redshirt senior at a position that demands youth, but so long as you're only looking to invest one contract on a runner, Green is probably the second senior on your list behind Devontae Booker of Utah. He's quick and shifty, the perfect type of change-up back that an offense needs as a complement to a power runner.

Plus, the reason he's stayed in school as a redshirt senior wasn't a talent issue but a logistics one. He was a high school All-American who enrolled at Nebraska before transferring back to his native state after his true freshman season. By the time he could see the field at TCU, he was a redshirt sophomore, but the talent, as his accolades show, has always been there. He can be a great role player for a weak ground game.

Current draft projection: Third round

Stock Down: Tyler Johnstone, OT, Oregon

Ryan Kang/Associated Press

It's always a bummer to see a kid lose potential money due to injury, but that's exactly what seems to be going on at the University of Oregon. Tyler Johnstone won Freshman All-American honors after redshirting his first year in Eugene. Unfortunately, at the end of his redshirt sophomore season, in the Alamo Bowl against Texas, he suffered a knee injury. He then had to miss his entire junior season.

So, 2015 was the first time we had seen Johnstone since he was a promising sophomore. He seems to have lost a slight step, and he's still not where he was from a technique standpoint. Offensive tackle is very much a "feel" position, which needs lots of time invested in development.

Remember, the raw talent of Johnstone put Jake Fisher, a 2015 second-round pick, on the right side of the line when the two were healthy. That means the staff had more faith in Johnstone than a top-55 pick. Everett Benyard, a promising dancing bear who was thrust into the lineup last season, might be the better of the two starting Ducks tackles based on their 2015 campaigns alone.

Someone will take Johnstone based on his early career development. That's a huge predictor of NFL success. His injury recovery is taking longer than expected, though, and should be noted.

Current draft projection: Fourth round

Stock Up: Joshua Garnett, IOL, Stanford

Young Kwak/Associated Press

Everyone sees the machine Stanford has built. The Cardinal are taking the Pac-12 North and are the favorites to win the whole conference. If you were to pin down one reason for their success, I would bet that nine out of 10 people would bring up Christian McCaffrey, a true sophomore running back.

McCaffrey is shifty with home run speed and is built well at 6'1" and 201 pounds. What's overlooked in his 1,500-plus-yard season is his offensive line. He's not opening up those holes himself.

For my money's worth, the best offensive lineman on that team is Joshua Garnett, a recruit from the Northwest who chose to get an education at Stanford rather than stick around in his part of the country. It's paid off for the 6'5", 321-pound giant.

He's a road-grader. There's no other way to explain it. The offensive linemen who see early impactful reps in the NFL are always those who have above-average strength. It's one reason why La'el Collins was my top offensive tackle in last draft class. At guard, he's doing more than fine for a rookie.

Garnett wants to hurt front sevens and won't stop at one victim. In many ways, he's like Brandon Scherff, who was a left tackle for Iowa last year, the first-round pick who used to swallow blitzers and pancake both pass-rushers and run-pluggers. Garnett shows tremendous agility and power on power plays. If you need an interior offensive lineman, I'd watch No. 51 for the rest of the season.

Current draft projection: Second round