Week 11 NFL Picks: Predictions for Vegas' Final Odds, Props on Sunday's Schedule

NFL teams that start the season by losing five of their first six games usually don't have a chance of getting back into the playoff race.

Don't tell that to head coach Andy Reid and the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs appeared to be down and out as a result of bad luck, poor play and a season-ending ACL injury to running back Jamaal Charles. They had the look of a team that was feeling sorry for itself and was about to throw in the towel.

But after a Week 6 road loss against the Minnesota Vikings, the Chiefs decided to turn their season around. They beat the Pittsburgh Steelers at home in Week 7, and that stopped the bleeding. Since then, they have recorded convincing victories over the Detroit Lions and the Denver Broncos.

If the Chiefs win Sunday against the slumping San Diego Chargers, they will climb to the .500 mark and be in position to fight for a playoff spot.

The Chiefs have been getting productive play from quarterback Alex Smith, who has completed 62.7 percent of his passes while throwing for 2,173 yards with a 10-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Charcandrick West has been adequate as a replacement for Charles, running for 357 yards and demonstrating that he can catch the ball as well.

But the biggest difference has been on defense. Earlier in the season, the Chiefs were allowing opposing receivers to run free in the secondary. However, they have improved in the last three games and now rank 13th in yards allowed. Not only have they done a better job in coverage, but outside linebacker Justin Houston also has 7.5 sacks and they have put more pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

While the Chiefs have hit their stride, the Chargers are reeling. They have one of the best and most competitive quarterbacks in Philip Rivers, but he does not have enough weapons to help him fight the battle.

The Chargers have gotten little from their running game, and top wide receiver Keenan Allen is out for the year after suffering a lacerated kidney. The defense lacks playmakers, and while the Chargers can play well in spurts, they can't sustain a 60-minute effort.

The Chiefs are three-point road favorites, according to Odds Shark. This game could be close for 30 minutes, but the Chiefs will establish their dominance in the third quarter and pull away in the fourth. Kansas City will earn a strong road cover.

Game	Line	Over/Under	Selection
Indianapolis at Atlanta	Atlanta -5	48	Indianapolis; Under
St. Louis at Baltimore	Baltimore -2.5	42.5	St. Louis; Over
Washington at Carolina	Carolina -8.5	44.5	Washington; Over
Denver at Chicago	Even	40.5	Chicago; Under
Oakland at Detroit	Even	50	Oakland; Over
N.Y. Jets at Houston	N.Y. Jets -3	40.5	N.Y. Jets; Under
Dallas at Miami	Even	48	Dallas; Over
Tampa Bay at Philadelphia	Philadelphia -7	44.5	Philadelphia
Kansas City at San Diego	Kansas City -3	45	Kansas City: Over
Green Bay at Minnesota	Even	44	Minnesota: Under
San Francisco at Seattle	Seattle -13.5	39.5	San Francisco; Under
Cincinnati at Arizona	Arizona -5	48	Arizona
Buffalo at New England	New England -7.5	48	New England

Patriots and Bills should put on offensive show

There's every reason to fear the weather for any late-November game in Foxborough, Massachusetts. Head coach Bill Belichick does not take poor weather into consideration when preparing his game plan, and he expects his Patriots to do their jobs.

When the Patriots host the Buffalo Bills on Monday night at Gillette Stadium, weather will not be a factor. There is no chance of precipitation, according to Weather.com.

That means this should be a high-scoring game. The Patriots and their opponents have been averaging 50 points per game in Foxborough this season. Additionally, when the Patriots and Bills got together in New York in Week 2, the two teams combined for 72 points in a 40-32 New England victory.

The Patriots have the second-ranked offense in the league, and quarterback Tom Brady has been on top of his game all year with a 24-3 TD-to-interception ratio.

On the other side, the Bills have explosive weapons in Sammy Watkins and LeSean McCoy. The Patriots have played well defensively this season, but containing that kind of talent will be a major challenge since New England has the 22nd-ranked pass defense in the league.

Both teams should be able to move the ball up and down the field and score regularly. The total has been set at 48 points, and these two teams should blow by that mark midway through the third period. 

Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Romo's return offers props bettors an opportunity to cash in

The Dallas Cowboys and their fans are done playing the "if only" game. When quarterback Tony Romo went down after suffering a collarbone injury in the second week of the season, it became a matter of survival for the Cowboys. 

If only the Cowboys could have won one, two or three games in Romo's absence, they could have remained in the NFC East race. Instead, they lost seven games in a row and are in last place in the division.

Romo will return Sunday against the Miami Dolphins, and he expects to upgrade the team's offense. The Cowboys scored just six points against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 10, and Romo's presence should infuse the Cowboys with a bolt of energy as well as significantly more talent.

Oddsmakers are offering several props bets on Romo. They have set the line at 1.5 TD passes and 265.5 yards, according to Odds Shark. Bettors who believe Romo will throw more than 1.5 touchdown passes against Miami can risk $150 to win $100. Those who think he will fail to reach that number of scoring passes can risk $100 to win $120.

Bettors who believe he will have a big day and throw for more than 265.5 yards can risk $120 to win $100. They will face the same risk and reward if they want to bet the under.

We are going to pass on the yardage prop, but Romo will find the end zone at least twice, so we will take the over for touchdown passes.