UFC Fight Night 78: Main Card Staff Predictions
The UFC returns to Mexico for a six-fight main card Saturday. Monterrey will be the host city, and welterweights headline the action.
This event will also play host to the finale of The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America 2.
Kelvin Gastelum, the No. 15-ranked welterweight contender, was originally slated to fight Matt Brown in the main event, but an injury sidelined the No. 5-ranked contender. In steps No. 13-ranked Neil Magny. This will be Magny's 10th fight since 2014.
Featherweights Ricardo Lamas and Diego Sanchez should provide the biggest fireworks of the night in the co-main event. Sanchez is looking for a big win at 145 pounds, and Lamas is trying to prove his stock as the No. 4-ranked contender in the division.
Here is the main card for UFC Fight Night 78:
- Neil Magny vs. Kelvin Gastelum
- Ricardo Lamas vs. Diego Sanchez
- Jussier Formiga vs. Henry Cejudo
- Erick Montano vs. Enrique Marin
- Enrique Barzola vs. Horacio Gutierrez
- Efrain Escudero vs. Leandro Silva
The Bleacher Report prediction team is here to pick the right winners. Or, at least, some of us are. Craig Amos, Scott Harris, Steven Rondina, Jonathan Snowden and Nathan McCarter are on the call.
2015 Standings
1 of 7
I am in the cellar, but there's an upside: That's where they keep all the booze.
Rondina has pulled into the lead but is only up two fights on Amos and Harris. It looks to be a three-horse race heading into December, but it is still close enough to where anyone could catch up with a couple of perfect cards.
Unlikely given our recent success.
Standings:
- Steven Rondina (29-7)
- Craig Amos (27-9)
- Scott Harris (27-9)
- Jonathan Snowden (21-15)
- Nathan McCarter (20-16)
Efrain Escudero vs. Leandro Silva
2 of 7
Craig Amos
This, for me, is the toughest pick on the card. It isn't the most interesting fight or the most meaningful, but I digress. I'll take Silva in a close one.
Silva, unanimous decision
Scott Harris
Not a whole lot on the line in this one. Both of these guys have grinder-type bases, and while Escudero is the bigger name and the hometown favorite, I give the nod to "Buscape." He's boring but effective.
Silva, unanimous decision
Steven Rondina
Silva may not be great, but he's shown occasional flashes of being a decent fighter once or twice in his career. He'll be able to outwork Escudero en route to a heavily booed decision.
Silva, unanimous decision
Jonathan Snowden
Both men are solid professionals, which is kind of a damning statement here. The fighting will be competent, sure. But this fight isn't likely to thrill anyone. Escudero has the wrestling to keep this standing, which will be key. In top position, Silva is a beast. But on his feet he's all too human. That's where the former TUF star can take advantage and outpoint Silva on his way to victory.
Escudero, unanimous decision
Nathan McCarter
I have never believed in Escudero, but this is a winnable fight for him. I just don't think he'll get it done. I'll take Silva by decision here in a largely uneventful fight.
Silva, unanimous decision
Enrique Barzola vs. Horacio Gutierrez
3 of 7
Craig Amos
Both guys punched their ticket to this fight by taking out their respective semifinal opponents in the opening round. But of course, there can only be one ultimate fight. On Season 50 or wherever we are now. Of which there will be two ultimate fighters. This ultimate fighter, though, will be Gutierrez.
Gutierrez, TKO, Rd. 1
Scott Harris
I have a confession to make. I hope you're sitting down. I did not watch The Ultimate Fighter Latin America 2. Gutierrez is only 2-1 as a pro, and video footage illustrates him as a bit of a young berserker. Will his aggression be like a truck? I think so, against a ticking clock like Barzola. Toss this one up and let the chips fall.
Gutierrez, TKO, Rd. 1
Steven Rondina
I'm glad we're just coming out and admitting that we're not watching international versions of TUF anymore. I actually watched a few episodes of TUF: China. I've paid my dues. I'll just go ahead and take the guy with a bit more pop in his limbs.
Gutierrez, TKO, Rd. 2
Jonathan Snowden
Gutierrez is bigger, more athletic and, from what little I've seen, also more technical. Those are all good reasons to suspect he'll walk away with that weird transparent plaque and the UFC contract. Or whatever they give TUF winners these days.
Gutierrez, TKO, Rd. 1
Nathan McCarter
I was more impressed with Gutierrez's picture.
Gutierrez, TKO, Rd. 1
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Erick Montano vs. Enrique Marin
4 of 7
Craig Amos
It is impressive when a guy takes out his opponents early like Montano has. But it can also be a red flag. If Marin is able to drag out the fight, he'll take Montano to a place he's never been before. And my forecast is that Marin will do exactly that.
Marin, submission, Rd. 3
Scott Harris
Neither one of these fighters has made much of a mark outside the show, though Marin is a small favorite. You know what, though? I like that Montano has never gone the distance in a pro fight. Sound the mild upset alarms for the Mexican with the puncher's chance.
Montano, TKO, Rd. 1
Steven Rondina
When you look over Marin's record, three things stand out: He's not actually from Latin America, he once fought for a promotion named Hombres de Honor, and his strength of competition is terrible. I'll lean toward Montano here.
Montano, submission, Rd. 2
Jonathan Snowden
This is a wild guess. Fingers crossed!
Marin, submission, Rd. 3
Nathan McCarter
Marin is on a bit of a roll, and Montano seems more unpredictable. I'll take Marin in a narrow decision.
Marin, unanimous decision
Jussier Formiga vs. Henry Cejudo
5 of 7
Craig Amos
Formiga has rallied to remain a fringe contender, but that ends Saturday night. It'll be too difficult for the Brazilian to get Cejudo to the mat, and he won't be able to match up on the feet.
Cejudo, TKO, Rd. 3
Scott Harris
This is one gosh-darn heck of a good fight. Formiga is small (5'5") even for a flyweight, and for all his jiu-jitsu skills, he can be overpowered. Cejudo and his wrestling game are tailor-made to overpower other flyweights.
Cejudo, unanimous decision
Steven Rondina
This fight was designed to set up Cejudo with an opportunity to lose to Demetrious Johnson. I'm expecting him to pull through.
Cejudo, unanimous decision
Jonathan Snowden
This is a fight between a world-class wrestler and an adaptable, smart grappler. Of course you'll never be able to tell as the two spend 15 minutes pretending they are kickboxers.
Cejudo, unanimous decision
Nathan McCarter
This will be Cejudo's moment to prove himself as the top contender to Demetrious Johnson's crown. He will smother and pummel Formiga for three rounds. I don't expect the Brazilian to ever be a big threat in this fight.
Cejudo, unanimous decision
Ricardo Lamas vs. Diego Sanchez
6 of 7
Craig Amos
Lamas will look to bounce back after a disappointing loss to Chad Mendes, while Sanchez is coming off a "win" over Ross Pearson, which earns quotation marks for being one of the most dubious decisions in memory. Lamas is just the better fighter, and he'll exhibit just that by cruising to a decision win. Just like Pearson did(n't).
Lamas, unanimous decision
Scott Harris
I can't believe Lamas is minus-600 as I type this. I mean, I think he'll win, but Sanchez shouldn't be that big of an underdog against anyone. This should have some fun exchanges, with Sanchez perhaps rocking Lamas with a punch or two, before Lamas wraps this up with methodical, less-concussion-inducing ground control.
Lamas, unanimous decision
Steven Rondina
I agree with Scott on Sanchez. Mothers all over the world should be ashamed that they don't love their children as deeply as judges love ol' Nightmare. If this fight goes to a decision, there's a real chance he wins, no matter how the fight went. All that said, I'm still picking Lamas with the expectation of yelling "oh, come on" at my television.
Lamas, unanimous decision
Jonathan Snowden
Listen, if you think I'm picking against Diego Sanchez you're crazier than he is. I love Diego. The judges love Diego. The universe loves Diego. Diego or we riot.
Sanchez, unanimous decision
Nathan McCarter
This could be fun, but at the end of the day Sanchez is long in the tooth. Look for Lamas to gain control but not be able to finish.
Lamas, unanimous decision
Neil Magny vs. Kelvin Gastelum
7 of 7
Craig Amos
Magny is a legitimate upset threat, but the fight is Gastelum's to lose. The 24-year-old has an edge on the feet and could even work in some takedowns if things don't go his way in the stand-up. He'll survive what proves to be a tougher test than it appears.
Gastelum, submission, Rd. 3
Scott Harris
It always pains me to pick against Magny, yet here I go. Assuming Gastelum's weight cut is reasonably smooth, he should close the distance early and often against Magny, whose range striking won't save him against the tank-like Gastelum.
Gastelum, TKO, Rd. 2
Steven Rondina
Every time I pick against Magny, he goes out of his way to prove me wrong...but I'm going to do it again. Magny has his skills, but as I see it, the grappling and wrestling are a push here, while Gastelum has the edge in striking. I expect him to put up a ho-hum, but victorious, performance in his return to 170 pounds.
Gastelum, unanimous decision
Jonathan Snowden
The key to this fight will be territory. Whoever owns the cage will win. Magny wants to stay at range, using his longer limbs to pick Gastelum apart. To do that he has to survive endless pressure. I won't wager he can do it. Gastelum will back Magny into the cage and remind everyone why he's considered one of the UFC's top young fighters.
Gastelum, TKO, Rd 3
Nathan McCarter
Gastelum is the real deal. Magny has improved greatly, but he is not a top-level fighter. Demian Maia showed that when they fought. Gastelum will run through Magny.
Gastelum, submission, Rd. 2
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
