Moore Hoops: Why No Blue-Chippers Is No Problem for Michigan State's Tom Izzo

Tom Izzo already has one of the best 2016 classes signed on, and that class could line up with Kentucky's and Duke's if he is able to land 5-star Josh Jackson.

With Jackson and Miles Bridges, the Spartans could have two one-and-done guys and their own variation of the Fab Five next season.

But if you pay close attention to recruiting, the 2016 class is an outlier for Izzo—as in, it's way better than usual—and it's kind of hard to figure out why this isn't closer to the norm.

The Spartans are fantastic at developing talent, right? Umm, yeah, have you seen Draymond Green play recently? And they win consistently—a national title and seven Final Fours under Izzo in the last 17 seasons, more Final Fours than any program in the country during that span.

So it's kind of a head-scratcher why Izzo doesn't hit more often in recruiting, and he's had some high-profile swing-and-misses the last few years—Caleb Swanigan, Jahlil Okafor, Tyler Ulis and Jabari Parker, to name a few.

But let's forget about all that for a moment and appreciate the coaching genius of Izzo.  

Just consider these numbers in context of the Champions Classic...

On Tuesday night, Michigan State tied Duke and Kentucky for the best record (3-2) during the five years of the event.

That's impressive, but look at it from a recruiting perspective.

Dating back to 2009 when John Calipari took over at Kentucky, Izzo's recruiting classes have looked nothing like that of Kentucky, Kansas or Duke:

	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	Avg.
UK	2	1	1	2	1	2	1	1.4
Duke	19	9	2	23	3	1	2	8.3
KU	6	31	18	13	2	4	5	11.3
MSU	28	12	23	12	74	50	18	31

Here is the number of 5-star, 4-star and 3-star players for each school during that stretch: 

	5-stars	4-stars	3-stars
UK	24	9	6
Duke	12	10	3
KU	9	10	8
MSU	3	10	10

And yet Izzo has the same record in Champions Classic games as the guy who has never had a recruiting class worst than second in the country.

That's no slight on Calipari. It's just damn impressive when it comes to Izzo.

Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

It also speaks to his ability to evaluate talent that fits what he wants. He finds guys who may not be NBA talents but have enough ability and intangibles to turn into great college players. Denzel Valentine is a great example. He's a borderline pro, but he was the best player on the floor Tuesday at the Champions Classic.

The second-best? Ulis. Another guy who Izzo identified early and who everyone thought would be a Spartan.

"Kentucky just swooped in and took him," Bleacher Report recruiting insider Scott Phillips said. "Izzo was one of the first head coaches of any high-major to take a vested interest in him. That one stung."

The team Izzo has this season probably doesn't have quite enough talent to win a national title, but if you could throw Ulis into the mix, that tune would change. Imagine dealing with Valentine and Ulis. They'd be doing calculus on the floor while everyone else was trying to master addition. 

That's part of the secret to Izzo's success: He finds high IQ guys such as Valentine and Green. Those players turn out to be just as valuable, if not more, than the 5-star studs who everyone can see are blessed with talent.

It'll be interesting to see what Izzo can do when he gets his hands on a recruiting class that resembles UK's next year. Phillips said he believes the success of Green with the Warriors has helped Izzo compete for 5-star prospects, so the caliber of talent could change at Michigan State. Dealing with the turnover that creates is a different kind of challenge—one that Calipari has mastered better than anyone.  

But for now, let's throw some props Izzo's way for the way he's won recently. It's clear he is really good at this whole coaching thing. Perhaps even underrated.

Gimme Five

Five NBA draft early-entry guys who (somewhat) surprisingly left early and set back their programs

1. Tyus Jones, Duke

If you polled the Duke coaches before last season, I bet they would have told you they thought Tyus Jones would be around for at least a few years. It's hard to blame Jones for leaving early because his stock was never going to be higher than after the title run, but if his 14 minutes played so far for the Timberwolves is any indication, he's not ready for the league. And Duke wasn't ready to replace him.

It was clear watching the Blue Devils lose to Kentucky that the missing piece on this roster is a point guard. Freshman Derryck Thornton doesn't appear ready, and an NBA scout who had been to Duke several weeks ago told me Thornton's handle is shaky. That could be part of the reason coach Mike Krzyzewski doesn't trust him yet, and it has left Duke scrambling to figure out less-than-ideal alternatives. Grayson Allen is better off the ball, and it's asking a lot of Brandon Ingram to have him initiate the offense.

How quickly Thornton develops could be the key to this season for the Blue Devils. 

Jeff Roberson/Associated Press

2. Joel Embiid, Kansas

The Jayhawks have some problems on the offensive end that showed up in the loss to the Spartans, and at the top of the list is an inability to find a consistent scorer on the blocks. Bill Self's offense is designed to attack through his bigs, and his best teams have had back-to-the-basket scorers. This was an issue last year—the Jayhawks shot below 50 percent (46.4) for the first time under Self—and it appears it could be an issue this year too. 

It's not that Self has let his recruiting slip. He signed two high-profile prospects in Cliff Alexander and Cheick Diallo. But Alexander was a bad fit, and if Diallo is ever allowed to play, he's not exactly the ideal big man for the offense. Neither is Perry Ellis, who is better operating in space.

Embiid was the perfect fit, and his short stay in Lawrence was a bit of a surprise and stunted KU's potential. Since his injury near the end of the 2013-14 season, KU's offense hasn't been the well-oiled machine we're used to seeing from Self's teams. It's too early to freak out about this team, but Self might have to tinker with his offense to get the best out of this group. 

3. Trevor Lacey, North Carolina State

Lacey went undrafted and is playing in Italy. We can't blame him too much for wanting to start making money. He would have been a fifth-year guy and is already 24. But with him, the Wolfpack probably would have been ranked in the 10-15 range in the preseason after last year's Sweet 16 run. Without him, they lost their opener to William and Mary by 17 points at home.

4. Kevon Looney, UCLA

The Bruins also had some March success to build on, and Looney was the centerpiece. He probably wasn't ready for the NBA, but he got drafted based on his upside with the last pick in the first round. Without Looney, the Bruins lost their opener to Monmouth and barely got by Cal Poly to get their first win. It could be a rough year for the Bruins. 

5. Michael Qualls, Arkansas

It was no surprise that Bobby Portis left after his sophomore season, but Arkansas couldn't have planned for losing Michael Qualls as well. Qualls ended up tearing his ACL in a workout before the draft and went undrafted. The Razorbacks are probably a bubble team with him still around. Without him, they lost a home game to Akron on Wednesday. 

Five teams that are better than expected

Jeff Swinger-USA TODAY Sports

1. Utah

I thought it would take some time for Utah to figure out how to play without former stud point guard Delon Wright. Well, against San Diego State, one of the best defenses in college basketball, the Utes scored 81 points. Their 1.17 points per possession in that game would have been the second-highest mark against the Aztecs' D last year, per Kenpom.com.

Without Wright, the Utes are using awesome ball movement to create scoring opportunities and spreading out the floor with shooters around future lottery pick Jakob Poeltl, who is more aggressive this season and has more moves in his post-game arsenal.

Wright was so good that the Utes would get caught standing and watching him create off the bounce last year. I hate writing this because he was one of the best guards in college basketball, but it's possible Utah is a better team this year. Bold prediction time: I like the Utes to win the Pac-12 over Arizona and Cal.

2. George Washington

The Colonials didn't get one vote in the preseason top 25. I'll have them in my top 25 this week and bet they'll stay there all season. Wake Forest transfer Tyler Cavanaugh, who scored 18 points in the upset win over sixth-ranked Virginia, is a good fit next to Kevin Larsen. He is one of the best passing big men in the country and exposed the Cavaliers when they doubled the post. GW also has solid guard play and good positional size throughout its lineup. This will be a scary team to face in the NCAA tournament.

3. Pittsburgh

The Panthers were picked by ACC media to finish 10th in the conference. The team that had Gonzaga up at halftime in Japan looked a lot better than that. (The game was canceled at halftime because of weather conditions.) If you're into computer rankings, Ken Pomeroy's data has Pitt as the eighth-best team in the ACC and No. 32 overall. It's also probably silly to assume that a Jamie Dixon team, especially one that returned four starters, would miss two straight NCAA tournaments.

4. Colorado State

It's probably a bit too soon to buy or sell the Rams, but Larry Eustachy's team got my attention with a win at Northern Iowa last Saturday. This was expected to be a bit of a down year after CSU graduated its three leading scorers from last year's team, which won 27 games and ended up on the wrong side of the bubble. Never count out Eustachy, who is one of the most underrated coaches in college basketball.

Joe Murphy/Getty Images

5. Memphis

I'm not sure if hanging with No. 8 Oklahoma on Tuesday night said more about OU or Memphis. The Sooners are really going to miss power forward TaShawn Thomas and could take a step back, but I'll go ahead and give the Tigers the benefit of the doubt.

Freshman Dedric Lawson is one of the most talented guys in this class and was a huge mismatch for the Sooners, putting up 22 points and grabbing 10 of his 15 rebounds on the offensive end. He looks like a better fit next to Shaq Goodwin than Austin Nichols was. The guard play, a weakness last year, also looks improved.

Best five teams in college basketball

1. Kentucky: The pieces on this team fit so well together, and the intelligent point guard play of Tyler Ulis has the 'Cats ahead of schedule. 

2. North Carolina: They haven't played anyone yet, and we can't really judge the Heels until Marcus Paige is in the lineup and healthy.

3. Maryland: Adding Rasheed Sulaimon as a second playmaker on the perimeter was a huge addition and takes some pressure off Melo Trimble. Sulaimon had seven assists to just one turnover in the win over Georgetown. 

4. Villanova: Starting point guards Jalen Brunson and Ryan Arcidiacono have a combined 18 assists and three turnovers in the first two games. The offense is going to hum this year with those two at the controls.

5. Kansas: The Jayhawks have their issues, but it's too soon to sell.

Games to Watch This Weekend

All game times are Eastern.

Wisconsin vs. Georgetown, Friday (5 p.m. on ESPN2): These are two programs that really need a good win. The Badgers aren't nearly as good as last year, but Bronson Koenig is so fun to watch that he'll always make it worth tuning in. Georgetown looked legit against Maryland, and it's safe to say it is the best 0-2 team in the country. 

Prediction: Georgetown 71, Wisconsin 65

No. 21 Purdue vs. Old Dominion, Saturday (Noon, ESPN3): The Monarchs could be an NCAA tournament team. They won 27 games last year and made it to the semifinals of the postseason NIT. Purdue coach Matt Painter has his best team in years. This should be a fun game and a good opportunity to check out Purdue freshman Caleb Swanigan, who is averaging a double-double.

Prediction: Purdue 75, Old Dominion 67

No. 1 North Carolina at Northern Iowa, Saturday (Noon, ESPN3): This is a scary game for the Tar Heels without injured star Marcus Paige, who is the reason Roy Williams scheduled a road game in November at Northern Iowa. (Paige is from Iowa.) The Panthers went undefeated at home last year. Granted, star Seth Tuttle is gone, but this is still a solid team. 

Prediction: North Carolina 69, Northern Iowa 60

Yale at SMU, Sunday (4:30 p.m., ESPNEWS): I want to see how much venom the postseason-ineligible Mustangs play with this season. Yale is also a possible tourney team, and it's always fun to watch Yale star Justin Sears.

Valparaiso at No. 25 Oregon, Sunday (6 p.m., Pac-12 Network): This is the best game of the weekend. This also might be the best team Dana Altman has had at Oregon. Valpo is one of the best mid-major teams in the country, and this is a great opportunity for Bryce Drew's team to show its strength. The Ducks are also must-see TV because they play fast and shoot a ton of threes. The only issue is finding somewhere with the Pac-12 Network to watch the game.

Prediction: Oregon 82, Valparaiso 74

Star rankings courtesy of 247Sports.

C.J. Moore covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @CJMooreBR.