Why Stanford vs. Notre Dame Still Could Serve as Playoff Elimination Game

There are few coaches in college football who get the big picture of the season quite like Stanford head coach David Shaw.

That’s why it wasn't all that surprising when the Cardinal alumnus, still sorting things out after a tough loss to Oregon, uttered these words to reporters following Tuesday's practice ahead of this week's "Big Game" against Cal.

Tony Avelar/Associated Press

“I’m not answering questions about the playoff,” Shaw said, according to the San Jose Mercury News' Jon Wilner. “It’s a waste of time.”

He’s absolutely right, of course. The weekly rankings released by the College Football Playoff selection committee serve little purpose aside from grabbing a ratings point or two for ESPN and further inflaming most of social media.

But at least on this Tuesday, it wasn’t quite the waste of time many Stanford fans expected.

Despite what appeared to be the Ducks spoiling another national—and maybe even Pac-12—title run Saturday, the Cardinal found themselves as the highest-ranked two-loss team in the latest rankings at No. 11.

Sure, that’s a four-spot drop from the week before, but it’s hardly the death blow to the Pac-12 playoff hopes that many were expecting.

That, combined with Notre Dame solidly set at No. 4, only reinforces what most of college football was excitedly looking forward to on the Saturday following Thanksgiving: When the Irish and Cardinal hook up on the Farm, it will still serve as a de facto playoff elimination game.

Win-and-in for Notre Dame. Win-and-still-alive for Stanford.

Given how solid Brian Kelly’s team is at No. 4 in the poll, Tuesday night said far more about Shaw’s squad remaining in the hunt for the final spot in the playoff.

Granted, it’s still going to take a slight miracle. The Big 12 has to continue to beat itself up, starting this week with TCU taking down Oklahoma. But the gap between the top three Big 12 teams and Stanford isn’t especially wide in the committee’s mind.

And unlike those in the flyover states, Stanford has an opportunity to pick up quality wins in each of the next three weeks, starting with Cal, followed by Notre Dame and then either Utah—which is also still barely alive at No. 13—or No. 24 USC.

That’s a nice resume booster, and if the Cardinal do indeed win out, they would knock out Notre Dame and likely set up a Stanford-vs.-Big-12-winner scenario for the committee to decide as a result.

“Oklahoma and Oklahoma State have pushed their way up closer into that Top 5,” committee chair Jeff Long said on ESPN after this week's rankings were revealed. “But I’ll tell you we spent a lot of time debating [Nos.] 5 through 7.”

Long also noted that Iowa was better than both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. That’s another nugget to file away should the No. 7 Sooners (9-1) or No. 6 Cowboys (10-0) wind up remaining in the discussion after each hosts a big matchup Saturday.

Likewise, the Irish have to enjoy their current spot in the playoff pecking order. They still continue to get rewarded for losing a close contest to Clemson—as opposed to being punished for it—and wins over 8-1 Navy and 7-3 USC earlier in the season are looking better and better.

All Notre Dame needs to do is take care of business in the next two weeks and hope for the Big 12 to continue to beat itself up.

Even if it comes down to the Irish and the hard-charging Sooners for the fourth spot, the committee has given us every indication that it is currently leaning toward South Bend and not Norman.

Can that change in a few weeks' time? Sure, but it would be a tough flip-flop to explain in the final set of rankings.

Michael Conroy/Associated Press/Associated Press

There’s plenty of football left to be played over the next three weeks of the season, including several games between contenders. The playoff picture is settling more with each passing week, but it’s still in a bed of quicksand.

Even with a Stanford loss to Oregon last week, however, we’re still able to reach the conclusion we had seven days ago: There will be what amounts to a quarterfinal on The Farm right after Thanksgiving between the Irish and the Cardinal if both teams don't lose before then. 

It’s looking strongly like win-and-in for Notre Dame. It’s nothing less than survive-and-advance for Stanford.

We only get four spots in the College Football Playoff, but—a few weeks out anyway—it sure looks like a bigger tournament from here.

Bryan Fischer is a national college football columnist at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter at @BryanDFischer.