Knee-Jerk Reactions to the Start of the 2015-16 NCAA Basketball Season

The 2015-16 college basketball season is just five days old, but that's already more than enough new data to toss aside months of preseason research in favor of some knee-jerk reactions.

We're all guilty of it. There's no earthly way you managed to watch all 384 games that have been played. Even the most devoted, multi-television viewer probably only caught 10 percent of the action. Thus, we overreact to the small samplings of product we actually saw on the court while also occasionally scrolling through the national scoreboard in search of surprise results.

Rather than pretend it doesn't happen, we might as well embrace it with a detailed list of some of the slightly insane, but moderately rational thoughts running through our sleep-deprived minds after the Tip-Off Marathon.

Is Cincinnati way better than we were led to believe?

Is Virginia actually kind of bad?

Will Kentucky go undefeated?

Be sure to weigh in on these debates while adding your own knee-jerk reactions to the first (not even) week of the season.

Short-Handed Tar Heels Still the Best

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Knee-Jerk Reaction: North Carolina doesn't even need Marcus Paige to win the national championship.

There are three possible outcomes when a star player goes down for a considerable length of time:

1. The team completely falls apart without him, a la Notre Dame sans Jerian Grant in 2013-14.
2. The team manages to tread water until he returns, a la Maryland sans Dez Wells in 2014-15.
3. The team excels as backups thrive in minutes they otherwise wouldn't have received, a la Michigan sans Mitch McGary in 2013-14.

Thus far, the Tar Heels are certainly gravitating toward that third option without Marcus Paige.

The immediate fear when it was announced that Paige would miss the first few weeks of the season was that North Carolina would be desperately lacking in leadership on the perimeter in the form of both shooting and passing. He was the only player to average at least one made triple per game last season and the only returning player to average better than 2.3 assists per game.

However, Nate Britt, Theo Pinson and Joel Berry immediately put that fear to rest by combining for 27 assists and shooting 15-of-26 (57.7 percent) from three-point range.

Pinson was the particularly big unknown, as he missed much of last season with a broken foot and spent most of the past 10 months trying to fully recover from it, but he has done a fine impersonation of Paige by posting at least five points, assists and rebounds in each game thus far.

Elsewhere, Kennedy Meeks and Brice Johnson are both averaging a double-double, and Isaiah Hicks has made seven of his eight field-goal attempts in a more expanded role than he has been used to having.

Sure, North Carolina should be even better once Paige returns from that broken bone in his non-shooting hand, but the Tar Heels are playing pretty darn well without him.

Cincinnati Is Bear-Y Good

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Knee-Jerk Reaction: With offense no longer a problem, Cincinnati is going to seriously contend for a No. 1 seed. 

At the end of each of the past five seasons, Cincinnati ranked in the top 50 on KenPom.com, even though its adjusted offensive efficiency failed to do so once.

Translation: The Bearcats have been so good on defense that their consistently poor offensive output didn't keep them from winning at least 22 games in five straight years.

So, how good are they going to be now that they're averaging 101.5 points per game?

Granted, Western Carolina and Robert Morris weren't the best competition in the world, but we're talking about a team that didn't score 70 points in a game last season until December. Regardless of the strength of schedule, this is clearly a more efficient and balanced Cincinnati than we witnessed during Sean Kilpatrick's reign as the team's top dog.

Eight different players scored at least 10 points against Robert Morris, and Gary Clark—arguably the best of the Bearcats—wasn't even one of them. More proof of improved distribution channels: Cincinnati's assist rate currently sits at 68.9 percent. In none of the past four seasons did it even hit 53 percent in that category.

The stagnating, foul-averse defense that I referenced in our preseason expert predictions is still there, too. Through two games, Cincinnati has 26 steals, 15 blocks and just 29 personal fouls.

Frankly, the biggest thing standing between Cincinnati and a potential No. 1 seed is its disturbingly weak schedule. In addition to the two cupcakes the Bearcats have already faced, they still have home games against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Southeastern Louisiana, Morgan State and Norfolk State before more than a few gimmes in AAC conference play.

Their RPI might be a disaster, but with this talent against that schedule, entering the NCAA tournament with 28 or more wins is a very real possibility.

Rule Changes Are Working

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Knee-Jerk Reaction: Due to the rule changes put in place this offseason, scoring is way up in a college basketball product that is already better than it has been in more than a decade.

In one direction or another, pace of play and scoring was inevitably going to be one of our knee-jerk reactions.

Fortunately, Ken Pomeroy is making the argument a pretty simple one in favor of the changes.

On KenPom.com's home page, there is a season-to-date comparison from this year to last year—drastically more useful than comparing current numbers to those from the entire 2014-15 season, because November basketball is a completely different animal than conference play. If comparisons are going to be made, it's absolutely pivotal that they cover the same range of the season.

Through one weekend, things are really looking up. Entering play on Tuesday, possessions per game had increased from 68.2 to 72.1 while points per game jumped from 68.0 to 73.8.

As Pomeroy noted in his early hot take, "There’s a lot of season left to be played, but the first weekend numbers are meaningful and they indicate the sport is much better off with the new rules."

While an increase in whistles is at least partially to blame for both of those upticks, it's not that big of a change from the norm. Save for the foul-filled 2013-14 season, the D-I average for total points coming from free-throw attempts has been in the 20.0-21.0 percent range for the entirety of the KenPom era. The current rate of 22.3 percent is above-average, but not alarmingly so.

Certainly, there are some outliers in each direction. As mentioned on the previous slide, Cincinnati is averaging more than 100 points per game. Butler scored 144 in its season opener against The Citadel. But we've also seen a handful of whistle extravaganzas, most notably the opening night games of Texas vs. Washington and Wichita State vs. Charleston Southern.

We'll keep an eye on pace and efficiency as the season progresses, but so far so good.

Virginia Is in Some Trouble

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Knee-Jerk Reaction: Virginia is this year's team from the top 10 of the preseason AP Top 25 that will very seriously flirt with missing the NCAA tournament. 

There's always one.

Florida was No. 7 in last year's preseason poll before missing the tournament. Oklahoma State opened the the 2013-14 season tied for No. 8, but was very much on the bubble before a huge win over Kansas in March. The year before that was Kentucky's infamous Robert Morris year.

Shall we continue? In 2011-12, Pittsburgh opened the season at No. 10 before going 5-13 in the Big East and failing to even reach the NIT. In 2010-11, Michigan State and Villanova opened the season at No. 2 and No. 6, respectively, before suffering first-round losses as a No. 10 and No. 9 seed, respectively. And the year before that, No. 6 North Carolina suffered 17 losses and missed the Big Dance.

So, yeah, you're totally going to argue that George Washington is a quality opponent and road games are hard and it's too early for blah-blah-blah.

At least one Top 10 team struggles immensely every season, and the early returns are that Virginia is fitting the bill this year.

It's not just that the Cavaliers lost to GW. It's how helpless they looked in the area of the game that is normally their biggest strength.

Over the past three seasons with Akil Mitchell and Darion Atkins anchoring Tony Bennett's pack-line defense, Virginia ranked top 25 in the nation in two-point field-goal defense. Last year, the Wahoos were No. 3 at a very stingy 40.1 percent.

But Virginia's vaunted D was completely porous against George Washington with Evan Nolte and Devon Hall waving guys to the hoop and Mike Tobey providing virtually no help defense behind them. The Colonials shot 52.8 percent from inside the arc, but it felt more like 75 percent if you factor in all the times Virginia gave a foul to stop a guy with a wide-open lane.

Last summer, I was worried about Virginia adjusting to life without Mitchell as the defensive stopper in the paint, but Atkins stepped up in a huge way.

So, who replaces Atkins this year? It doesn't look like Tobey is ready for that job, and the longer it takes to answer the question, the more I fear for Virginia's tournament life.

But If Virginia Turns Things Around...

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Knee-Jerk Reaction: Oklahoma misses TaShawn Thomas more than any other team misses any other player from last season. 

First things first, Memphis was fantastic in an 84-78 losing effort against Oklahoma. The knee-jerk reaction coming out of this game could have just as easily been that Dedric Lawson is Ben Simmons' biggest challenger for USBWA National Freshman of the Year. He had 22 points, 15 rebounds (10 offensive!), three blocks, two assists and two steals, despite picking up his fourth foul with 16:21 remaining.

Great as Lawson's stats were, though, it was as if Oklahoma never had any earthly idea where he was at on the court. No one slowed him down as he drove to the rim time and time again. No one bothered to put a body on Lawson when it was time for one of his teammates to get a wide-open path to the hole, allowing Lawson to haul in all those offensive rebounds.

Last year with Thomas clogging the lane, opposing teams had a nightmare of a time scoring inside the arc against Oklahoma. The Sooners ranked 12th in the nation in defensive two-point field-goal percentage.

But they desperately missed him on Tuesday.

Khadeem Lattin got the start at power forward, but he played just seven minutes due to foul trouble. Redshirt freshman Dante Buford played 23 minutes off the bench, but he looked lost on defense more often than not. Frankly, Oklahoma's best lineup might have been the four-guard set with 6'4" freshman Christian James in the mix, and that's precisely why Memphis was able to grab 21 offensive rebounds.

If the Tigers could have just made a few more of the nearly uncontested layups they were given—or if they could have done anything on defense to keep Buddy Hield from scoring 30—they would've really made a statement with a comfortable win.

Oklahoma should be OK as Buford improves and JUCO transfer Akolda Manyang recovers from a stress fracture. Like Virginia, though, power forward is a very serious early concern for this alleged national championship contender.

The Atlantic Sun Has Some Phenomenal Players

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Knee-Jerk Reaction: The battle for Atlantic Sun Player of the Year is going to be one of the best races in the entire country for the next two years.

NJIT's Damon Lynn was an excellent scorer in each of his first two seasons, averaging 17.2 points per game as a freshman and 17.5 as a sophomore.

Already this year, though, he has found another gear. He scored 19 in the season opener against Kentucky and followed that up with 27 in a slight upset over South Florida on Monday night. Arguably the best volume three-point shooter in the nation, he has hit nine of his first 21 attempts and could very well challenge Travis Bader's record of 504 career triples if he stays for one more year. Lynn entered the season having already made 233.

Yet, Lynn hasn't even been the most impressive Atlantic Sun player.

That honor belongs to North Florida's Dallas Moore. The junior had 26 points and 10 assists in a big win over Illinois on Friday night before putting up 23 and 10 against UT-Rio Grande on Monday.

The best part of his stat line, though? Moore has 20 assists against just one turnover and one personal foul. He's also shooting 54.3 percent from the field and 50.0 percent from three-point range. Good luck finding a more efficient player in the country right now.

And in case you didn't catch it, both Lynn and Moore are only juniors. We should get another 1.9 seasons of watching them put up ridiculous numbers.

The (Golden) Bears Are Who We Thought They Were!

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Knee-Jerk Reaction: California has the best starting five in the country.

Rice and UC Santa Barbara aren't exactly the best teams that California will face this season, but we got a good look at what the Golden Bears are bringing to the table this season all the same.

And what we saw was pretty impressive.

Despite playing just 55.5 percent of the possible minutes in the opener against Rice, the starting five (Tyrone Wallace, Jordan Mathews, Jabari Bird, Jaylen Brown and Ivan Rabb) combined to score 72 points, with each player accounting for at least 11. It was more of the same against UC Santa Barbara on Monday night, as each member of the quintet poured in at least 10 points in the process of scoring 79 of the team's 85 points.

Wallace was the star on both nights and is already looking like one of the biggest snubs from the various preseason All-American teams. ESPN had the senior guard at No. 44 on its preseason top 100 list. Our C.J. Moore had Wallace projected as the 15th-best point guard in the country. He is exceeding both of those expectations, averaging 22.0 points, 7.0 assists and 5.0 rebounds while shooting 68.2 percent from the field.

The shooting percentage is the only real surprise there, and pretty much everyone who ranked him anywhere noted that he could end up finishing a whole lot higher if he becomes more efficient this season. He certainly won't shoot 68 percent all year long, but it's a darn fine start for a guy who entered the season with a career field-goal percentage of 40.7.

The Rams Are Still Tough

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Knee-Jerk Reaction: VCU is going to be just fine without Shaka Smart.

Over the previous six seasons with Shaka Smart, VCU pretty much rewrote the book on defensive intensity. The Rams ranked first in the nation in turnover percentage for three consecutive years, and they probably would have made it four if Briante Weber hadn't missed nearly half of last season with a torn ACL.

However, it doesn't appear that much has changed with Will Wade at the helm.

According to Sports-Reference.com, VCU recorded at least 13 steals in "only" six games last season. But the Rams are already a third of the way to matching that mark, as they had 17 in the season opener against Prairie View A&M and another 13 on Monday against Radford—the same Radford team that limited Georgetown to just four steals in 50 minutes on Saturday.

As far as the individual pieces are concerned, Mo Alie-Cox is still a mountain of a man in the paint who is going to flirt with leading the A-10 in both rebounds and blocks, Melvin Johnson is still a great three-point shooter and defender, JeQuan Lewis is racking up points, assists and steals and sophomore Justin Tillman might be the secret weapon that pushes this team over the top.

Of course, we'll need to withhold a fair amount of judgment until their big showdown with Duke on Friday, but the Rams might be able to keep things interesting with the defense that they're literally trying to trademark.

These Rams Are Still Tough, Too

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Knee-Jerk Reaction: Rhode Island is still the team to beat in the Atlantic 10, even after the season-ending injury to potential A-10 Player of the Year E.C. Matthews.

This one is actually a knee-jerk reaction to a knee-jerk reaction to a knee injury. That's right. We just went all sorts of Inception on this slider.

When Matthews went down for the count with a torn ACL on opening night, everyone immediately wrote off Rhode Island. All preseason, the Rams were pitched as a good-looking team on the rise. But, come on, they can't still be that good without their best scorer, right?

Well, maybe they can.

Led by a double-double and six blocks from Hassan Martin, Rhode Island completely stifled an extremely talented Valparaiso offense. The Crusaders brought back everyone from last season and were averaging 81 points per game heading into Tuesday morning, but they scored just 58 against a Rhode Island team that ranked ninth in the nation last year in adjusted defensive efficiency. It's very difficult to get open looks against Dan Hurley's guys.

Problem is, the Rams still lost the game by three points, because they're shooting horribly from the free-throw line (47.3 percent on the season) and are still trying to figure out their new roles in the absence of Matthews.

They'll get there, though. Four McGlynn is a very gifted shooter. Point guard Jarvis Garrett was a game-time decision with a knee injury and didn't quite look like himself. Kuran Iverson is already looking like he's going to make much more of an impact in Rhode Island than he did with Memphis. And Martin is going to become more of a go-to weapon on offense as the season progresses.

Save for a potential showdown with Maryland in the Cancun Challenge, Rhode Island has a pretty favorable schedule for the next month. Give the offense a few games to catch up, but this defense might still be the team to beat in A-10 conference play.

Get Those T-Shirt Printing Presses Ready

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Knee-Jerk Reaction: After comfortably taking care of business against Duke in the Champions Classic, it's officially time to start wondering if Kentucky could go undefeated.

You didn't seriously think you'd get through a knee-jerk reactions piece without some 40-0 banter, did you? For shame.

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news if you overdosed on undefeated talk over the past two seasons, but KenPom.com currently gives Kentucky at least a 72 percent chance of winning each of its next 17 games. Multiplying together those odds yields an 11.1 percent chance that the Wildcats will still be undefeated for the massive showdown with Kansas on Jan. 30.

Based on what we saw out of them against Duke, that actually seems low.

Jamal Murray is already the real deal, and he's only going to get better when he stops trying to do too much on his own. Skal Labissiere is still pretty raw, but he's quickly going to develop into one of the five best centers in the country. And if Marcus Lee keeps blocking shots and absolutely dominating the offensive glass, pray tell, where is the weakness to be exploited on this roster?

Yes, the SEC is deeper than last year, but are you seriously betting money on LSU, Texas A&M or Vanderbilt knocking off arguably the best team in the nation?

There's a long way to go between now and the end of January, but it might be Kansas or bust if you're hoping for someone to beat Kentucky during the regular season.

Parity Is King

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Knee-Jerk Reaction: It's going to be one of those years chock-full of upsets and arguments over whether anyone actually deserves a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. 

The No. 1 team in the AP poll (North Carolina) is playing without its Wooden Award candidate for at least a few more games.

No. 3 Maryland just barely survived at home against a Georgetown squad that lost at home to Radford on Saturday.

No. 4 Kansas and No. 5 Duke both suffered losses as part of another excellent Champions Classic event.

No. 6 Virginia lost at George Washington 24 hours before No. 9 Wichita State lost at Tulsa. And No. 8 Oklahoma nearly lost at Memphis. Kudos to those high-ranking programs for challenging themselves with legitimate road games as part of the Tip-Off Marathon, but don't expect many teams to volunteer for that position next November.

No. 7 Iowa State almost lost its season opener to Colorado, and No. 10 Gonzaga was really struggling with Pittsburgh before that game was cancelled at halftime.

In summation, Kentucky is looking pretty good, but the rest of the "elite" teams have really stumbled out of the gate. A few of them will inevitably right the ship, but it certainly didn't take long to find red flags with nearly every team in the country.

Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.