2016 NFL Draft: Updated Prospect Radar Post-Week 10
From purely an entertainment standpoint, last weekend's slate of college football games were the most fun to watch all season. When the dust settled, though, we knew just about where every team ranked with the playoff committee, as we're now nearing the end of the season.
That's essentially how we should feel about this draft class too. There really aren't going to be many movers any more until the all-star game studs, underclassmen declarations and combine splashes become public. It's just simple: If someone is a quality player, watchful eyes probably would have picked up on it during the first dozen or so weeks of college football.
That aside, there are players who aren't building up stock off of a flashy single week, but are building momentum throughout the season. In an extremely positive stock watch, we'll give you five rising names and a top-five mock draft based on current draft order.
It's hard to come up with negatives when everyone in the sport brought their A-game on Saturday, so we're just going tone down the criticism for this week's edition and focus on silver linings. After watching sloppy Sunday football, I think it would sooth all of our souls.
Stock Up: Kenny Clark, DL, UCLA
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The strength of this draft class is on the defensive line. It's so deep that a player like Kenny Clark of UCLA doesn't even get brought up as a potential top-10 pick, as there are other defensive tackles, such as Robert Nkemdiche, ahead in the pecking order.
The Bruins have had plenty of flash-in-the-pan interior defensive linemen who look like first-round picks for a hot minute before tumbling back to reality, but Clark has been at it since he was a true freshman. Now as a junior, he's ready for the NFL with his 6'3", 310-pound frame.
At his size, there's not a position he can't play inside the tackles. He can line up as a 5-technique defensive end in a 3-4 defense, he can be a 1-technique nose tackle in a 4-3 defense or a 0-technique nose guard in a 3-4 defense. The last piece of the puzzle was the question of if he could play 3-technique defensive tackle in a 4-3 defense, the penetrating position that linemen like Ndamukong Suh and Aaron Donald play.
This past weekend was huge for that projection when regarding Clark. When you are playing 5-, 1- or 0-technique, it's hard for you to show up in the box score, as your impact typically comes up from forcing a running back into another lane or by taking up space. On Saturday night against Washington State, though, Clark played plenty of 3-technique snaps and ended up finishing the night with three sacks on the game, completely taking over the trenches in a one-score loss to the Cougars at home.
The subtleties of the game manifest when watching him, and his strength and burst are enough to keep him in the conversation to land in the top 20 picks in April's draft. He's the type of player who you can just plug in and not have to worry about for eight or nine years. With his versatility, he's even more of an asset, as he can mask the weakness of any spot on the line in case the two-deep isn't strong in a certain role. He's similar to Haloti Ngata in that way.
Current draft projection: top-20 pick
Stock Up: Taylor Decker, OT, Ohio State
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Offensive lines in the NFL are underdeveloped. There are multiple reasons as to why.
First, most quality athletes of linemen size end up as defensive linemen at the college level. Why? One defensive lineman can disrupt a play by himself, whereas offensive linemen work as a unit. If one offensive lineman blows a block, it doesn't matter that you have Joe Thomas playing left tackle. If J.J. Watt is your left defensive end, it doesn't matter if your right defensive end is getting stonewalled when rushing the passer.
As individuals, defensive linemen are just more valuable. The other factor that leads to underdeveloped offensive linemen is the NFL's willingness to not spend time and assets on the position.
Look at NFL rosters. There are 53 players on a team, with three spots going to specialists. So you have 50 spots to fill in 22 hypothetical starting roles on both sides of the ball. There are five offensive linemen which start, and there are more than enough slots on a roster to have a two-deep at every position, so there should be 10 or more offensive linemen on every roster, right? Wrong.
What ends up happening typically is that there are only eight offensive linemen on a roster, including a "swing tackle" and flexible interior offensive linemen on the bench who can play center. Also, backup offensive linemen and quarterbacks are the only players who coaches willingly don't play, as they can't really participate on special teams and are never rotated, since the positions are largely based on chemistry.
I explain all of this for one reason: It's amazing that there are offensive tackles who start in the NFL before they turn 25 years old. Early on, the offensive tackles who see early success in the league are those with length and strength. As of this point, there are two bookends who could start Day 1 for a franchise.
The first is Laremy Tunsil of Mississippi, who could be the clear leader to be the first overall pick in the 2016 draft class. The second is Taylor Decker of Ohio State, a 6'7", 315-pound left tackle. It feels cliche to say since they're in the same state, but he compares a lot to Andrew Whitworth of the Cincinnati Bengals, who was a second-team All-Pro player last season. Whitworth is known for slightly below-average athleticism, but is well-rounded enough to sustain himself in pass protection, as is Decker.
Ohio State's schedule has been slightly easy for Decker, but he's proved himself. Against Virginia Tech, their best pass-rusher, Dadi Nicolas, played a mostly interior role, instead of playing on the edge. He's also faced future professionals in Maryland's Yannick Ngakoue and Penn State's Carl Nassib, two opportunists in Power Five Conferences. The best defensive end he's faced was probably Kemoko Turay of Rutgers, who looks like a top-60 pick but is only playing about 20 percent of the Scarlet Knights' plays.
As of now, Decker has the edge over Notre Dame's Ronnie Stanley, only because of the difference between their physicality. Stanley was blown up by Clemson's Shaq Lawson a couple of times. I have yet to see that from Decker this season. Keep an eye on him against Michigan State this week, whose field defensive end Shilique Calhoun has been touted by some as a first-round pick.
Current draft projection: top-15 pick
Stock Up: De'Runnya Wilson, WR, Mississippi State
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De'Runnya Wilson left the Alabama game this past Saturday with a neck injury, but it doesn't look like it will impact his draft stock, and it doesn't take away what he's been able to accomplish this season. Heading into the game, the big narrative surrounding Mississippi State from the draft community was if quarterback Dak Prescott was a legitimate threat to push into the Day 2 range next April, but more often than not, Prescott goes as Wilson goes.
Prescott's favorite and most talented target has essentially matched his 2014 production already, with several weeks and a postseason still to go in 2015. As a a junior, it would be shocking if the 6'5", 215-pound former Alabama Mr. Basketball didn't declare for the NFL draft in January.
Many will compare him to Kelvin Benjamin, the former Florida State receiver who was drafted in the first round by the Carolina Panthers, but there are a couple differences. The first, and largest, difference is their weight. Benjamin was built in a way which led some teams to project him as a tight end, whereas the 215-pound Wilson will never be considered as anything other than a wide receiver. Wilson is also speedier.
The right comparison is a fellow SEC product: Alshon Jeffery. Like Jeffery, Wilson should be a second-round pick when it's all said and done. He's a big-body target who just lacks a little juice to be considered an elite receiving talent. He will make some team happy as an out-of-the-box No. 2 target from the jump who may develop into a top pass-catcher down the line.
Current draft projection: second-round pick
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Stock Up: Jason Spriggs, OT, Indiana
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There are always players who are the physical embodiment of question marks heading into their senior year. Prospects who show enough athleticism to get by as juniors and have the potential to be much more but just didn't put it together going into their final season of eligibility.
That's Jason Spriggs, the left tackle from Indiana. Spriggs is a former 3-start recruit who landed in-state as a Hoosier and started from his true freshman season on as an offensive lineman, a rarity for a player with one Power Five Conference scholarship offer.
Spriggs is incredibly athletic, but he doesn't have the strength to hold up at the point of attack. He either is going to spend a lot of time in the weight room in 2016, or he's going to have to sit his first year in the NFL.
Ideally, he ends up with a team that has a strong front office with a history of well-planned development. For example, the Cincinnati Bengals took two offensive tackles, Texas A&M's Cedric Ogbuehi and Oregon's Jake Fisher, in the first two rounds in the 2015 draft, but since Andrew Whitworth and Andre Smith were still on the hook for a final season, neither were slated to see the field this year.
Whitworth also signed a one-year extension in September, meaning only one of the two current rookie tackles is going to head into the 2016 season as a starter while the other continues to thaw on the bench.
Fisher, who has some of the same issues as Spriggs has, wasn't thrown into the fire. Instead, he's getting some in-game reps as a sixth offensive linemen and is being split out as a pass-catching target while offensive coordinator Hue Jackson is getting him up to speed as a bookend in practice. If things go right, Spriggs may be the next Lane Johnson, an athletic tackle who gives his offense an added dimension as a zone blocker and pass protector.
This weekend, with the help of Spriggs, Indiana's offensive line opened up holes for 307 rushing yards against Michigan, a team with a tough-nosed identity under Jim Harbaugh. The Hoosiers took the Wolverines into double overtime before finally falling by seven points.
Spriggs can be a franchise left or right tackle for in the NFL, as long as they don't expect much more than development and growing pains from him in his rookie campaign. At 6'7", 305 pounds and with his feet, the sky is the limit. If you miss out on the Ronnie Stanley sweepstakes, Spriggs is going to go cheaper in the same mold.
Current draft projection: second-round pick
Stock Up: Brennan Scarlett, EDGE, Stanford
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Brennan Scarlett has an odd background. First of all, he's a Northwest product who bolted for the Bay Area when he signed with the California Golden Bears after becoming a heralded recruit in Oregon. His issue was never talent, but injury. He missed significant time in the 2011, 2013 and 2014 seasons with multiple health issues. He only played 17 games in four years at California, but he started 14 of them.
When he saw the field, he was a player. The pass-rusher eventually had enough of Berkeley and decided to become a graduate transfer. Unlike many Power Five Conference transfers who look for playing time, he didn't dip down to the FCS or Division II level. Instead, he switched into a Stanford uniform, California's archrival.
One reason was family. Cameron Scarlett, Brennan's brother, is a true freshman at Stanford. When the Cardinal's defensive line started to get banged up, they were more than glad to have the elder Scarlett on the roster. Now seeing more playing time due to injuries keeping others off the field rather than himself, Scarlett has posted 3.5 sacks over the past three games, including 2.5 against the University of Oregon on Saturday. That 3.5 number is the same amount of sacks Scarlett was able to put together in four years while at California.
Now he's not some underrated diamond in the rough; he just doesn't shine like that. With that being said, one can imagine a team taking a shot at him for his late-career production with the qualifier being that injuries and surrounding talent held him back from developing at California.
As of now, Stanford still controls its destiny in the Pac-12. This week, Scarlett will have to face his former team in an attempt to clinch the North title. If you happen to catch that game, he should be a focal point of the broadcast. Keep your eyes open for the future NFL defensive linemen who projects as a left defensive end.
Current draft projection: Day 3 pick
Bonus: Top-Five Mock
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1. Cleveland Browns: Joey Bosa, EDGE, Ohio State
I would like to formally congratulate the Cleveland Browns for taking the lead in the race for the first overall pick, a draft slot they only have earned twice since 1954, both in 1999 and 2000 when the team was coming off its expansion rebirth.
This pick can only go one of two ways: It has to be Laremy Tunsil of Mississippi or Joey Bosa of Ohio State. They are the only players with a skill level high enough to be taken with the first overall pick. Since the Browns already have a franchise left tackle, there's no reason why they would need to take a right tackle with their most important draft selection in a decade and a half.
Sure, the Cleveland Browns have two 3-4 outside linebackers on paper, but they are very different. Paul Kruger is more of a strength edge-setter than a killer pass-rusher, while Barkevious Mingo hasn't hit as a top-six pick and is more of a coverage linebacker than anything else.
The plan would be to keep Kruger in on first and second down, spell Mingo in passing situations and start Bosa. Baltimore used the same strategy with a combination of Elvis Dumervil, Kruger, Courtney Upshaw and Pernell McPhee rotating opposite of Terrell Suggs recently.
2. Tennessee Titans: Laremy Tunsil, OT, Mississippi
Laremy Tunsil is the best offensive tackle in this draft class. He is the best player in this draft class. Tunsil is going to be the next Jonathan Ogden. I really don't think we have seen a bookend this talented since Joe Thomas was coming out of Wisconsin.
The Tennessee Titans invested their franchise in Marcus Mariota, who already has sustained an injury to his MCL, the same issue he had his sophomore year at the University of Oregon. He's typically a quick-strike passer, but as he's learning what "NFL open" is, he's holding onto the ball a little late, which is fine from a stylistic standpoint, since he's a playmaker on the move. In many ways, holding the ball late in the down is also a flaw some of the greats, like Aaron Rodgers, have.
The issue is, Mariota has a history of fumbling when he gets sacked, and as a thin-framed quarterback, you don't want him taking too many shots. The history of Robert Griffin III still hangs over mobile quarterbacks.
Unlike the Washington Redskins after the Griffin trade, though, the Titans still have first-round picks to pick up toys for their passer. Their right tackle for most of the season has been Jeremiah Poutasi, a rookie offensive lineman who was slated to play guard until late in the preseason when talent and injury forced him into the lineup.
The plan would be as to ake Tunsil, since he's the best player on the board by a wide margin; move Taylor Lewan, who quietly lost his captain status after Ken Whisenhunt was fired, to right tackle; and finally, move Poutasi to his rightful position of guard. With just the addition of one player and the reshuffling of others, the Titans would improve at three positions on the offensive line.
3. Baltimore Ravens: Jalen Ramsey, CB, Florida State
With Terrell Suggs possibly being finished, it's a bummer the Baltimore Ravens couldn't land Joey Bosa in this situation, but their team has simple flaws: It can't protect long enough in pass protection to be the deep-passing team with the receivers it currently has, and it can't develop enough of a pass rush to stop air attacks with the defensive backs it currently is fielding. So it either needs to hit receiver, offensive tackle, cornerback or a pass-rusher with this pick. After Bosa and Laremy Tunsil are off the board, the only guy worthy of the third overall pick at any of those positions is Jalen Ramsey.
Ramsey was a safety for the Florida State Seminoles before this season, but since transitioning to cornerback, he's been a natural. Ramsey appears to be a legitimate 6'0", 200-plus-pound boundary corner, which is a huge premium in today's NFL where the emphasis on height is stressed in the red zone. Think about it this way, the Titans drafted Dorial Green-Beckham with the 40th overall pick last draft and are basically using him as a red zone-only threat since he's 6'5".
Last draft, I was hoping Marcus Peters, a cornerback who eventually landed with the Kansas City Chiefs at the 18th overall pick, would end up as a Baltimore Raven, since the fit was so perfect, but Peters, who may be the defensive rookie of the year, has been doing fine without the franchise. On the other hand, the Ravens need to make up for not moving up the draft and taking him last season. If they take Ramsey, the cornerback duo of he and Jimmy Smith with Will Hill hanging over as a safety makes for a much better looking foundation in the defensive back unit.
4. San Diego Chargers: Robert Nkemdiche, DL, Mississippi
The San Diego Chargers have been destroyed by injuries this season, but it may end up being a blessing in disguise. This team is just good enough to compete with the big boys when totally healthy, but if it gets one dent on either side of the ball, all of the clever offensive and defensive schemes go down the drain.
Possibly heading into Los Angeles with Philip Rivers, this might be the time for the team to re-brand, and bringing in another star would do wonders for it. Who is its best defender? Is it Jason Verrett, the sophomore cornerback who is undersized and is constantly dealing with injury? Is it Melvin Ingram, the pass-rusher who is seemingly always "going to break out" but eventually disappoints? Is it Eric Weddle, the 30-year-old safety who is going to be a free agent in 2016?
Kendall Reyes, one of San Diego's starting two-gapping defensive linemen who was also a second-round pick in 2012, is going to be a free agent this season. This opens up a perfect opportunity for someone like Robert Nkemdiche to come in and make a huge impact early on. Nkemdiche's one knock at Mississippi has been that he hasn't been able to finish plays, partially due to the fact that he's been double-teamed, on his way to sacks.
As a two-gapping defensive lineman in a 3-4 defense, he won't be asked to do that, as he'll primarily be a run-first defender, where he thrives. Few NFL defensive linemen have the raw athleticism and potential that Nkemdiche has. There's no question as to why he was a top recruit coming out of high school. A raw star developing in Los Angeles, a player who can turn an NFL franchise around sounds like a script straight from Hollywood.
5. Dallas Cowboys: Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis
Paxton Lynch isn't worth a top-five pick at this point, but this is a pick I can absolutely see Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones talking himself into. A young gunslinging mobile quarterback who was born in Texas and played college football in the Deep South like Jones did? He could be viewed like a more controlled and efficient version of Johnny Manziel in his eyes, a player he's been on the record about as one of his favorites from the 2014 draft class.
Lynch sits behind Tony Romo for a year or two, assuming Romo stays healthy, and then develops into the franchise quarterback of the future for the squad. Jones wants to win all the time. He doesn't want to rebuild—he wants to reload. The issue is, you can't consistently be in title contention in the NFL that way, merely in the playoff hunt. These Cowboys teams under Romo haven't been Super Bowl good, just wild card good, but that seems to be enough for Jones.
You just can't get into the playoffs without a quarterback in today's NFL, though, and Romo is coming off of serious injuries at the age of 35. If Jones wants to win after Romo, he's going to need to make his move now, as quarterbacks rarely come cheap or quick.
I still wonder what would have happened if the Jacksonville Jaguars had not taken Blake Bortles with the third overall pick in the 2014 draft. I have a hunch that if he would have been on the board when the Cowboys were on the clock, he'd be in Dallas right now.
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