Bowl Projections 2015: CFP Predictions After Week 12 AP Poll Release

Each week, the College Football Playoff somehow manages to get more muddled. Undefeated teams lose, several late-season matchups still loom and, well, college football is just impossible to predict.

But let's try.

Below, I'll offer my playoff and major bowl predictions after a wild weekend of football. Much will yet change amongst the top teams in the nation, but let's try to forecast how the season will end up.

Associated Press Poll

No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Notre Dame

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

Yes, I'm projecting Ohio State to be the top overall seed. Why? Because it's hard to imagine the committee ranking the Buckeyes lower than No. 1 if they finish their season undefeated with late wins over Michigan State, Michigan and Iowa. 

That's no easy task, of course, and a loss to Michigan State could cost them a spot in the Big Ten Championship and College Football Playoff. On the other hand, if Ohio State wins out in the regular season but loses to Iowa in the Big Ten title game, it'll still at least be able to make a case for a playoff spot. 

A lot will be decided in the coming weeks for Ohio State, but in every regard, the Buckeyes control their own destiny. 

Notre Dame's fate, on the other hand, is entirely in the hands of everyone else. The one-loss Fighting Irish have an impressive resume, but much will depend on how impressive the teams around them end up being. The two biggest threats to Notre Dame appear to be Oklahoma State and Oklahoma, while the loser of the Big Ten title game will also be able to make a case it belongs in the playoff. 

The decision between a one-loss Notre Dame and one-loss Oklahoma, in particular, would be tricky, as Lost Letterman noted on Twitter:

And what if Ohio State loses to Iowa and enters the mix?

Good grief.

In the scenario outlined above, however, Ohio State wins out, Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State down the stretch and the committee ultimately goes with the Fighting Irish. While Oklahoma will have the more impressive wins on its resume, you can make a strong case that Notre Dame's schedule was far more dense with quality opponents. 

Good luck deciding that one, committee. Good luck.

No. 2 Clemson vs. No. 3 Alabama

I mean, this one is as easy as it gets. If Clemson wins out, it is in. If Alabama wins out, it is in. Both will win out, therefore, both are in.

Next.

Rose Bowl: Iowa vs. Stanford

The loser of the Big Ten title game will almost assuredly end up in the Rose Bowl—with the winner headed to the playoff—so Iowa will be Stanford's opponent.

And despite coming into this game with three losses, Stanford is a heck of a football team. The Cardinal will head into this game with losses against Northwestern, Oregon and Notre Dame but wins over USC, Arizona, UCLA and Cal, a very impressive resume and a very difficult schedule to traverse. 

Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. Oklahoma

Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press

This one will be fun. The loser of the SEC title game will head to the Sugar Bowl, while the game will either get the Big 12 winner if it is snubbed in the playoff or the No. 2 team in the conference. 

In this scenario, Oklahoma heads to the game after the committee gave the nod to Notre Dame. Even if head coach Bob Stoops thinks the Sooners are a major contender for the playoff after traveling to Baylor and getting a win this weekend.

"Go into their backyard on a night like tonight and play this way, you know, we're one of those teams that has a chance," Stoops told ESPN. "Again, you come into an undefeated team ranked that high, waiting on you, and win by 10. It's got to be a positive."

It certainly was. But winning out may still not be enough to catch Notre Dame. It will be one of the more fascinating storylines to watch down the stretch. Regardless, this matchup would be one of the highlights of the bowl season. 

Peach Bowl: LSU vs. Houston

If the Cougars finish undefeated with wins over Memphis and Navy, they'll deserve their spot in the Peach Bowl. And despite two straight losses, LSU is still one of the better teams in the country, and keeping running back Leonard Fournette out of a major bowl would be a sin. 

Fiesta Bowl: Michigan State vs. Oklahoma State

Another fun matchup, as two-loss Michigan State takes on one-loss Oklahoma State in a matchup of teams oh-so-close to being in the playoff conversation. Michigan State will lament a close loss to Nebraska and an upcoming loss to Ohio State. Oklahoma will lament losing to rival Oklahoma. 

Just call it the Lament Bowl.