NFL Fantasy Football Week 10: Last-Minute Advice for Setting Your Roster

The Green Bay Packers' Eddie Lacy is proving to be the biggest non-injury fantasy bust of the season so far, rating just 46th in fantasy points per game among backs in ESPN leagues with 5.38 points per game—fewer than the Cleveland Browns' Isaiah Crowell and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' Charles Sims, among many others.

With head coach Mike McCarthy naming James Starks the starting tailback for an inviting home setup against the Detroit Lions, per Michael Cohen of the Journal Sentinel, it's clearly become time for Lacy's investors to make the enduring shift to Starks or other alternatives.

Most fantasy football leagues compete in 13-week regular-season schedules, which means we're already about 70 percent of the way into the campaign on the doorstep of Week 10. It's truly win-or-go home time at this stage of the season, which makes preparation and information more vital than ever as we manage our imaginary football franchises.

With this in mind, please join us in discussing the key undervalued commodities such as streaming defenses and waiver-wire wonders, as well as the major injuries impacting this specific week's market.

As always, feel free to post your lineup conundrums and questions for Week 10 in the comments below. 

Waiver-Wire Wonders for Week 10: What Can Blue Do for You?

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

Late into the season, as rosters erode and bye weeks prove more prominent, it's helpful to identify some widely available players with the potential to provide instant production from the waiver wire. Let's delve into some of the better bargain buys in the league this weekend.

Quarterback Values 

Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins: For those who are facing bye or injury issues behind center, Cousins is engaged in a conference contest with inviting point total projections, per Odds Shark. Washington is playing against a suspect New Orleans Saints secondary that is allowing the most fantasy points per game in ESPN leagues to opposing arms. 

Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions: The last time the Lions won in Lambeau Field was in 1991; Brett Favre was on the Atlanta Falcons, and Stafford was just three years old. With the Lions being heavy road dogs, we can envision plenty of passing for Stafford and the potential to pad stats even if the team can't earn a rare win in Wisconsin. 

Running Back Bargains

Matt Jones, Washington Redskins: Healthy Vegas trends suggest we'll see tons of points scored in this one, as it is hovering around 50 points and an even point spread, per Odds Shark. With positive game-flow potential, we like Jones as an upside play given at least 10 touches versus a leaky Saints front. 

Alfred Blue, Houston Texans: Available in nearly 40 percent of ESPN leagues, Blue actually faces a friendlier matchup than initial perception might indicate, as the Cincinnati Bengals have allowed 88 rushing yards per game to opposing backs this season—14th-fewest in football—but the third-most yards per rush to opposing backfields per game (4.9 yards per carry ceded). Considering this week's injury-depleted running back market, Blue is a fine flex play on Monday night given the propensity for healthy usage and offensive exposure (19 touches in Week 8). 

Waiver Wideouts

Cecil Shorts III, Houston Texans: While Blue has the potential to earn a heavy workload, we're also projecting a busy passing day for the Texans as they attempt to keep pace with one of the league's top offenses. The Texans are on pace for more than 700 passing attempts this season, something only one NFL team has ever done. With the team producing nearly 50 targets per game, Shorts offers immediate interest as a flex in point-per-reception (PPR) formats.

Chris Givens, Baltimore Ravens: The visiting Jacksonville Jaguars rank 25th in the league in pass defense with 263.5 yards ceded per game. Givens is positioned for an expanded role in the wake of Steve Smith Sr.'s injury, per Garrett Downing of the team's website. Since he's vertical burner capable of blending well with Joe Flacco's big arm, we like cheap shares of Givens in deep and desperate scenarios.  

Tight End Streamers

Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings: We're admittedly chasing the matchup metrics over the specific player in this case, as the Oakland Raiders have allowed the most fantasy points per game to tight ends on the season. Rudolph is truly a touchdown-dependent commodity, but he is at least in an inviting environment for production. 

For streaming D/ST options, check out our "Streaming of Vegas" section.

Questionable Calls Week 10: Chicago's Top Duo on the Mend

Jose Juarez/Associated Press

As the long and challenging season enters the second half of the schedule, several injury scenarios are worth mentioning. Let's examine the details of a few key ailing assets. 

Alshon Jeffery and Matt Forte, Chicago Bears

The Bears' two best skill players have been limited and have missed portions of practice this week with respective injuries, according to a report from ESPN.com's Jeff Dickerson. While Jeffery appears likely to play, per the report, Forte is dealing with an MCL injury that offers some real risk, as the running back noted in Dickerson's piece.

"It’s a fine line, because if you’re not fully healed and you go out there, you might injure it worse or something else," Forte said. "So it’s hard to tell [when you're ready to come back]." We're guessing Forte's owners will need to deploy Jeremy Langford or another option in his place, while Jeffery is a top option given such rich red-zone usage despite some injury and matchup concerns.

Emmanuel Sanders, Denver Broncos

Sanders is following up a breakout effort last season with a quietly brilliant campaign, yet an ankle injury threatens to sideline the productive wideout, per ESPN.com's Jeff Legwold. Given the 4:25 p.m. ET timing of the game, we'd strongly consider deploying a healthy, if lesser, alternative.  

Allen Hurns, Jacksonville Jaguars

ESPN.com's Mike DiRocco reports ascending wideout Allen Hurns, who is on pace for nearly 1,300 yards and 12 touchdowns and faces a generous Baltimore Ravens secondary, is questionable but trending toward playing Sunday.

Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers

The good news is we can likely expect Big Ben back behind center in Week 12 after a scary midfoot injury suffered in Week 9. Gerry Dulac of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette shared on Twitter that Roethlisberger "has no chance of playing" against the Cleveland Browns. 

Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks

Sheil Kapadia of ESPN.com reports Lynch is listed as questionable for Sunday night's crucial division matchup with the Arizona Cardinals with an abdominal injury. The prime-time nature of the game suggest Lynch's investors should have understudy Thomas Rawls in reserve in case Lynch is a late scratch. 

John Brown, Arizona Cardinals

Brown's lingering hamstring issues have him positioned as a game-time decision in the aforementioned late national game in Seattle, per Mike Jurecki of Fox Sports 910. Owning shares of Michael Floyd as insurance for Brown makes sense, but much like with Sanders of the Broncos, investors might want to have early alternatives in place. 

Streaming of Vegas Week 10: Let the Desert Help on Defense

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

How can we leverage the point-projection system Vegas and offshore sports books produce each week in seeking streaming D/ST options? The foundation of the idea has us favoring favorites in games with point totals under 46.5. 

The results showed favorites in games below this threshold ended up in the top 10 in ESPN fantasy leagues 49 percent of the time. Here is a simple breakdown of the quadrants for this concept: 

• Favorites in games with a point total under 46.5: 49 percent in the top 10 of fantasy D/ST units.
• Favorites in games with a point total over 46.5: 38 percent top-10 rate. 
• Underdogs in games with a point total under 46.5: 29 percent top-10 rate. 
• Underdogs in games over a point total over 46.5: 21 percent top-10 rate. 

We can also use these trends to help identify some potentially productive under-the-radar D/ST units for Week 10. 

In an uncommon scenario, we like both the Tampa Bay Bucs' D/ST and the Dallas Cowboys' group as they face off in a conference contest with a point total hovering around 44 and a nearly even point spread, per Odds Shark. With the Cowboys' conservative offense and subpar signal-caller play to consider for the Bucs' angle and Tampa's somewhat generous allowance to opposing fantasy defenses as an element to weigh, both widely available groups are of interest as streaming options for Sunday. 

With Johnny Manziel set to start on the road for the Cleveland Browns in Pittsburgh, per ESPN's Adam Schefter, we like the Steelers as a strong streaming option as well. The Browns have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game in ESPN leagues to opposing defenses.  

NFL Weather Roundup: High Winds Expected in Oakland

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

We find NFLWeather.com to be a helpful resource, especially as we enter the later stages of November and the harsher weather outcomes that come with it. The key climate concern this week is found in Oakland, as the Raiders host the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday afternoon with winds expected to reach at least 20 mph. 

A study conducted by Advanced Football Analytics' Brian Burke on weather's effect on passing production in pro football revealed some telling and actionable information for fantasy investors.

While Burke found that extreme ends of the temperature spectrum can influence adjusted yards per pass attempt differently for road and home teams to varying degrees, his research on the influence of wind is particularly helpful for projecting potential fantasy outcomes.

"Teams are definitely leaning to the run on windy days, but the effect is only prominent in significantly windy conditions, greater than 15 mph," Burke wrote. "And even in winds of over 20 mph, offenses are trading only about five passes for runs in an entire game, or about two to three per team." 

We're still starting Derek Carr outside of having strong alternatives, especially as he's thrived versus the blitz this season and faces a blitz-happy Vikings' scheme, but it's worth noting the studied influences of such wind speeds on fantasy production. If things are close for you between a few players on these passing games and other options, this weather factor can be viewed as a differentiating element to consider.