Bleacher Report Predicts Landing Spots for Top 25 MLB Free Agents, Trade Targets
While there have been a few significant moves already since the World Series ended almost three weeks ago, things generally don't get going until the MLB winter meetings, which are set for Dec. 7-10 in Nashville, Tennessee.
There figures to be no shortage of blockbuster trades and notable free-agent signings during that four-day span, but before that happens, let's make some predictions.
What follows is a look at the top 25 free agents and trade targets on the market and predictions from five of our top MLB writers on where they will land.
These five writers made up our panel of prognosticators:
- Danny Knobler, MLB Lead Writer
- Joel Reuter, National MLB Columnist
- Zachary Rymer, MLB Lead Writer
- Jacob Shafer, National MLB Columnist
- Anthony Witrado, National MLB Columnist
Having five writers weigh in gave us plenty of different opinions, and there was actually only one consensus among the 25 players.
It will be fun to look back in a few months to see who got the most picks right, but for now, here's our best guess at how this year's free-agent and trade markets will unfold this winter.
LF Yoenis Cespedes
1 of 25
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Knobler (LAA): Remember the throw he made at Angel Stadium to get Howie Kendrick at the plate in 2014? You can bet the Angels remember it, and know the impact Cespedes could make.
Reuter (SEA): The Mariners have made a splash the past two offseason with the signings of Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz, yet finding consistent offensive production was still an issue. Could another significant addition be in the cards this winter?
Rymer (LAA): No team got worse offensive production out of left field in 2015, and Albert Pujols' recent foot surgery may have the Angels worried about how much offensive support Mike Trout is going to have going forward. Plus, signing Cespedes won't compromise the Angels' position in the 2016 draft.
Shafer (MIA): It doesn't seem like a match financially. But these are the Marlins, who do crazy stuff for a living. There's the obvious Cuba/South Beach connection, and it'd certainly send a signal to Giancarlo Stanton that he's not stuck in a perennially rudderless rebuild, even if he is.
Witrado (LAA): Owner Arte Moreno tends to like his flashy free agents, and Cespedes qualifies as one. More importantly, he fits a need for the club—a power bat and outfielder.
RP Aroldis Chapman
2 of 25
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Knobler (HOU): The Astros showed interest at the July 31 trade deadline, and they still have the same need at the back of the bullpen.
Reuter (ARI): The Diamondbacks went hard after Chapman at the trade deadline, and they have both the prospects and big league pieces to pull off a deal for the flamethrower.
Rymer (ARI): They've been linked to Chapman since the trade deadline, and they could deal from either their outfield surplus or their wealth of young pitching to finally bring him aboard.
Shafer (CIN): After the Boston Red Sox traded for Craig Kimbrel, the list of teams with a desperate need for late-inning relief and an impossibly deep farm system got shorter. That's not to say there won't be suitors, but my hunch is Chapman will remain in a Reds uniform until the trade deadline, when he'll fetch a huge return from a desperate contender.
Witrado (HOU): The Astros explored a deal for Chapman before the July deadline, and he could turn an already solid bullpen into a dominant one for a team with World Series aspirations and the players to pull off such a trade.
SP Wei-Yin Chen
3 of 25
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Knobler (DET): They have the need, they don't mind dealing with the agent (Scott Boras) and he should fit into their price range.
Reuter (DET): The Tigers will likely add a pair of starting pitchers to the mix this offseason, and Chen represents a good mid-level option who won't break the bank. He also gives the team a lefty to slot between Justin Verlander and Anibal Sanchez.
Rymer (LAD): We can assume the Dodgers are going to end up with one of the market's top aces, but even one of those wouldn't complete their rotation. They'd also need a solid innings-eater, a term Chen embodies as well as anyone.
Shafer (NYY): The Yankees could land one of the winter's big pitching prizes and no one would blink; they're the Yankees, after all. But Chen jibes with the recent restraint and propensity for mid-level upgrades the Yanks and general manager Brian Cashman have shown.
Witrado (NYY): Chen has proved he can pitch effectively in the American League East, and the Yankees have to get some rotation depth. Chen does that without breaking the bank the way David Price or even Jordan Zimmermann would.
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SP Johnny Cueto
4 of 25
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Knobler (SF): He won't make the impact Zack Greinke would, but the two big postseason starts show he could still be a difference-maker.
Reuter (SF): After missing out on Greinke and Ryan Zimmermann, the Giants settle for signing Cueto to pair with Madison Bumgarner atop the rotation. Not a bad consolation prize.
Rymer (SEA): Going off the board with this one, but the Mariners could use a co-ace to go with Felix Hernandez and a new general manager in Jerry Dipoto who's looking to change things around in a hurry. Plus, Cueto's iffy market could make him affordable for Seattle.
Shafer (BOS): The Red Sox and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski will chase Price. If they lose out, Cueto will be a solid consolation prize.
Witrado (BOS): Dave Dombrowski has already said the team would pursue a free-agent arm rather than trade for one, and Cueto seems to fit in the rotation and ballpark, as he’s already put up impressive run-prevention numbers in Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly yard.
1B Chris Davis
5 of 25
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Knobler (SEA): New GM Jerry Dipoto has been active on the trade market, but there have been strong suggestions he has money available to fix the offense.
Reuter (BAL): GM Dan Duquette claims the Orioles have the money to re-sign Davis and add an impact arm to the rotation. I'm not entirely sold on them pulling that off, but bringing back Davis looks to still be priority No. 1.
Rymer (BAL): The O's can't afford to lose his power, and it helps that their financial future now looks brighter after they won their television dispute with the Washington Nationals.
Shafer (SEA): The Mariners are searching for offense. And Davis, baseball's reigning home run leader, brings the thump.
Witrado (BAL): Davis will flirt with plenty of others, but the Orioles will not let another bat get away this offseason.
SS Ian Desmond
6 of 25
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Knobler (SD): The Padres made a mistake when they gave up Trea Turner, the super-prospect who will take Desmond's spot in Washington. Desmond isn't a perfect replacement, but he is a shortstop.
Reuter (SD): Even after a down season in 2015, Desmond looks like a clear upgrade for the Friars. The platoon of Clint Barmes and Alexi Amarista produced a .228/.279/.365 line this past season.
Rymer (SD): Desmond has been linked to the Mets, but their shortstop situation isn't actually that dire. The Padres' is, and some of the money they've freed up in recent trades could be reinvested into Desmond.
Shafer (SEA): Desmond is the best option in a thin shortstop market. And the M's, who have a potential need at the position, could gamble on a bounceback year from the former All-Star.
Witrado (SD): Desmond’s market won’t be huge, but the Padres have the need for a shortstop and the money to make it happen, especially if they end up moving some of the money currently on their payroll.
SP Yovani Gallardo
7 of 25
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Knobler (TEX): He grew up in Fort Worth, and probably doesn't get a big enough offer elsewhere to tempt him to leave home.
Reuter (TEX): The Rangers really don't have any glaring needs outside of filling out the rotation by signing a starter. The 4.00 FIP and career-low 5.9 K/9 last year are minor red flags, but Gallardo is a perfectly acceptable middle-of-the-rotation arm and should have a price tag to match.
Rymer (BAL): The Orioles will need to replace Wei-Yin Chen if he departs, and Gallardo looks like a typical Orioles pitcher. Not overpowering, but effective. Also, he should be reasonably affordable.
Shafer (TEX): Considering how deep this year's pitching class is, the Rangers won't have to break the bank to keep Gallardo, who was born in Mexico but went to high school in the Lone Star State.
Witrado (DET): Gallardo will cost the Tigers a draft pick, but he will cost much less than some of the upper-tier arms on the market. That is up Detroit’s alley.
LF Brett Gardner
8 of 25
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Knobler (CLE): It won't be easy making the money work, but with the Michael Brantley injury, the Indians have a need and the players who could get a deal done.
Reuter (NYY): An abundance of solid outfield options on the free-agent market and a horrendous second-half performance (293 AB, .206/.300/.292) keep Gardner in New York for the time being.
Rymer (TEX): The Rangers can either put their faith in Josh Hamilton to stay healthy and solve their left field quandary, or they can go get somebody more solid. The latter is the right choice, and landing Gardner would net them both a left field upgrade and a leadoff upgrade.
Shafer (NYY): The Aaron Hicks trade increased the probability of a Gardner trade, but the Yankees aren't going to give their All-Star outfielder away. And with so many other avenues to pursue pitching upgrades, they don't have to.
Witrado (NYY): Gardner will be shopped for much of the winter, but ultimately he stays in New York because his salary is too high and his production is falling off.
RF Carlos Gonzalez
9 of 25
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Knobler (COL): It makes sense to trade him, but with the free-agent market full of corner outfielders, the timing might not be right to get the best deal.
Reuter (COL): He won't move just yet, but Gonzalez is a lock to be traded at some point before the start of the 2017 season. The Rockies just have to hope he stays healthy in the meantime.
Rymer (COL): He's owed $37 million over the next two seasons, and he's only worth that much in Colorado. That, plus the relative wealth of outfield options on the open market, leads me to believe he's staying put.
Shafer (COL): With several premium outfielders on the market, no team will be desperate enough to offer the Rockies the kitchen sink package they will rightly demand for CarGo. Now, at the trade deadline or in next winter's paper-thin FA market? That'll be another story.
Witrado (STL): The Cards would like to avoid spending upward of $80 million for a free-agent outfielder, and with Gonzalez owed just $37 million over the next two years, St. Louis can find some pieces to send to Colorado for his middle-of-the-order services.
LF Alex Gordon
10 of 25
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Knobler (DET): He'd love to stay home with the Royals, but someone will offer more money.
Reuter (BOS): New GM Dave Dombrowski saw plenty of Alex Gordon during his time in Detroit, and he's rumored to be interested in adding him to the mix in Boston. Pitching remains the No. 1 focus, but they have the money to go after someone like Gordon as well.
Rymer (KC): Gordon would have been way beyond Kansas City's price range had he hit the market last winter, but his age and ties to draft-pick compensation complicate his standing on this winter's market. He fits well in Kansas City, and I can see the market pushing him back there on a surprisingly affordable deal.
Shafer (BOS): Dombrowski is rumored to like him, and he'll likely be too rich for the Royals' blood. The Sox would have to move someone from their crowded outfield, possibly Jackie Bradley Jr.
Witrado (ATL): This might seem odd since the Braves are in a rebuild, but they also want to add some pieces to remain relatively competitive and have at least some recognizable names when they open their new ballpark in 2017.
SP Zack Greinke
11 of 25
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Knobler (LAD): It's not really their style to give long-term deals to 32-year-old pitchers, but they love Greinke and desperately need to keep him.
Reuter (LAD): The Greinke-to-San Francisco rumors are fun, but you have to think the Dodgers would back a dump truck full of money up to Greinke's door before they let him sign with their rivals.
Rymer (LAD): Greinke's certainly not going to be swayed by sentimentality. But with the stupidly rich Dodgers supposedly prioritizing his return, he should be swayed by their money.
Shafer (SF): Much as it would pain the Dodgers to lose Greinke to their hated rival, the 32-year-old doesn't fit president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman's, "pay for what a player will do, not necessarily for what they have done" edict. And Greinke has expressed his affinity for the Giants, coast-spanning feud be damned.
Witrado (LAD): Greinke will take dances with several teams, but ultimately he stays with Los Angeles, a team he enjoys playing for and the one who can offer him the most money.
RF Jason Heyward
12 of 25
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Knobler (STL): They traded for him and didn't get a deal done before he became a free agent. But remember, the same thing happened with Matt Holliday before he re-signed with the Cardinals six years ago.
Reuter (STL): The Cardinals knew exactly what it was going to cost to extend Heyward when they traded for him last offseason. They wouldn't have parted with four years of Shelby Miller if they didn't intend on doing everything in their power to get an extension with the 26-year-old done.
Rymer (BOS): Heyward is just the kind of guy the Red Sox need patrolling right field at Fenway Park, and signing him would free them up to deal one of their outfielders. Besides which, they're one of very few teams that can actually afford him.
Shafer (STL): The Cardinals aren't known for wading into bidding wars, but after trading for Heyward last year, here's betting they do what it takes to keep the well-rounded 26-year-old in Missouri.
Witrado (CHC): The Cubs have the money, need and wherewithal to understand exactly what Heyward is worth to a team. They splurge for a player who will age well.
SP Scott Kazmir
13 of 25
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Knobler (MIA): Some time with pitching guru Jim Benedict could be just what Kazmir needs.
Reuter (HOU): Kazmir saw his numbers drop off significantly after joining the Astros (13 GS, 2-6, 4.17 ERA) at the deadline, but there appears to be mutual interest here and the Houston native would no doubt love to stay close to home.
Rymer (HOU): I'm not sure how many clubs are going to value Kazmir's contact management more than the Astros, and he's a Houston native.
Shafer (ARI): The D-Backs need pitching as they challenge for relevance in the NL West, but they're a long shot to lure a top-shelf name. Enter Kazmir, who could be a (relative) bargain.
Witrado (ARI): Arizona won’t spend hugely for pitching, and Kazmir won’t break their bank.
SP John Lackey
14 of 25
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Knobler (PIT): He thrived in the division with St. Louis, and could slide in as A.J. Burnett's replacement with the Pirates.
Reuter (STL): Tommy John surgery for Lance Lynn means the Cardinals are in the market for a starting pitcher. If Jason Heyward signs elsewhere, they could make a run at one of the elite arms on the market, but at this point a reunion with Lackey looks like their most likely route to shoring up the rotation.
Rymer (STL): Lackey and the Cardinals fit each other well, and now there's a need for him in St. Louis after Lance Lynn went in for Tommy John surgery.
Shafer (STL): Lackey, the playoff-tested vet, was everything the Cards could have hoped for and more in 2015. And St. Louis needs known commodities in its rotation after losing Lance Lynn to Tommy John surgery.
Witrado (MIA): The Marlins are looking for short-term help in the rotation as they want to compete in the NL East. The commitment is short and allows the Marlins to dip back into free agency in a couple of years.
SP Mike Leake
15 of 25
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Knobler (ARI): The Diamondbacks would love to play for the biggest pitchers on the market, but adding a guy who pitched at Arizona State wouldn't be bad.
Reuter (SF): The Giants will go hard after one of the top starting pitchers on the market, but with Madison Bumgarner, Jake Peavy and Chris Heston looking like the only three reliable starting pitching options available, they'll be in the market for a second mid-level starter as well. Leake is young (28), durable and should come at a reasonable price.
Rymer (TOR): The Blue Jays need another starter even after retaining Marco Estrada, and Leake's ground-ball style is one that could play well at Rogers Centre and elsewhere around the power-happy AL East.
Shafer (SF): This might seem like a stretch if the Giants actually do sign Greinke, but San Francisco figures to have a couple of holes to fill in its rotation and a decent chunk of change to burn heading into (all together now) an even year.
Witrado (SF): They will not sign Greinke and need more than just one other arm (possibly David Price) to put with Madison Bumgarner.
SP Kenta Maeda
16 of 25
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Knobler (CHC): He's not David Price, but could be a nice fit in a rotation with Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester.
Reuter (ARI): The Diamondbacks were in on Maeda last offseason before he wound up pitching another year for the Hiroshima Carp. They have reportedly shown interest again this winter, and making an aggressive push to sign the Japanese standout could be the answer to shoring up the D-Backs rotation.
Rymer (ARI): General manager Dave Stewart professed his love for Maeda last winter, and he has the need and the incentive to go get him this winter. The Diamondbacks may only be one solid pitcher away from being a dangerous team.
Shafer (JPN): With the pitching market loaded and Masahiro Tanaka offering a cautionary tale about touted Nippon Professional Baseball pitchers with a lot of miles, it seems like Maeda could wait until next winter to ink his first MLB contract.
Witrado (ARI): The interest from Arizona is already heavy, and they badly need pitching, so this seems like an easy fit.
2B Daniel Murphy
17 of 25
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Knobler (LAD): They got a firsthand look when Murphy homered four times in five games in the NLDS. They've also had good luck with ex-Mets infielders (Justin Turner).
Reuter (LAA): With holes to fill at second and third base and a glaring need for another left-handed bat, Murphy looks like an obvious fit for the Angels. Defensively, he actually profiles better at the hot corner, if he's willing to make the move.
Rymer (LAA): The Angels need an offensive upgrade just as badly at second base as they do in left field, and the recent addition of Andrelton Simmons could help diminish the impact of Murphy's less-than-awesome defense.
Shafer (COL): Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal reported the Rockies "have discussed" signing Murphy to play first base. If Colorado is serious, the lure of padding his stats at Coors Field may prove too tempting for Murphy to resist.
Witrado (NYY): Murphy will age better here than in most other places because he can pop balls out over the short right field fence.
RP Darren O'Day
18 of 25
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Knobler (MIN): The Twins have the talent to challenge the Royals in the American League, but they need bullpen help. Maybe this is where they spend.
Reuter (LAD): The Dodgers will have J.P. Howell and Kenley Jansen back as late-inning options, but adding O'Day as a right-handed setup option could finally give them the bullpen stability they've been lacking in recent years.
Rymer (LAD): The Dodgers have badly needed a second shutdown reliever to go with Kenley Jansen for a couple of years now. O'Day, who has quietly been awesome over the last two seasons, is their ticket to solving that problem.
Shafer (BOS): Kimbrel was the big piece in Boston's reconstructed bullpen, but O'Day would provide a strong, if expensive complement.
Witrado (LAD): The team could not find adequate bullpen help in July, so this time they go get one of the proven guys on the market.
SP David Price
19 of 25
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Knobler (BOS): He may prefer the Cubs, but his former GM in Detroit has the bigger need—and probably the bigger wallet.
Reuter (BOS): The Red Sox have made it clear they're going to go hard after starters on the free-agent market following the blockbuster trade to acquire Craig Kimbrel. Price is the ace they need, and they have the money to rival any other big-market suitors.
Rymer (CHC): Price has been heavily linked to the Cubs, and there's definitely a fit for him there. He'd be reunited with his old skipper, Joe Maddon, and would also get a fat contract from a big-market team that should be ready to spend again after the success of 2015.
Shafer (LAD): If Greinke walks, they need an ace replacement. And the Friedman connection from the Tampa Bay days hints that a Price-Kershaw power-lefty duo for the ages could be in the offing.
Witrado (SEA): This will be the stunner of the offseason, but the Mariners have to be bold to become contenders. Price qualifies.
RF Yasiel Puig
20 of 25
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Knobler (LAD): The Dodgers have asked him to lose weight, and the manager who couldn't seem to tame him (Don Mattingly) has moved on to Miami. It might be best to give it one more try with him in L.A.
Reuter (LAD): Selling low on Puig feels like a mistake, even if he can be a distraction.
Rymer (LAD): Even if the Dodgers want to move Puig, they're trying to move a right fielder with diminished value on an offseason market that's pretty rich with outfielders. Odds are they'll realize their best course is to just hold onto him.
Shafer (LAD): After an injury-marred season, there's no way Friedman sells low on a player as gifted as Puig unless another club blows L.A. away with a ludicrously lopsided offer.
Witrado (LAD): The talks get heavy, but nobody will give the Dodgers what Puig is actually worth. Plus the Dodgers would be dealing from a position of little leverage considering Puig is coming off a down season.
SP Jeff Samardzija
21 of 25
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Knobler (TOR): With new management at the top, it's hard to know what the Blue Jays will do. But some of the people who liked Samardzija at the July deadline are still in place.
Reuter (TOR): Ideally, the Blue Jays would re-sign David Price or replace him with another ace-caliber arm, but settling for a player they've shown interest in before in Samardzija could be passable alternative. The 2015 numbers weren't great, but he's capable of a lot more and should age well considering the low mileage on his arm.
Rymer (NYY): They need another body for their starting rotation, and they've often been connected to Samardzija in recent months. It's a fit.
Shafer (MIA): The Marlins again? Yep, because, like I said, they're crazy. Oh, and their No. 7 draft pick is protected, meaning they won't have to give it up, even though Samardzija rejected the White Sox's qualifying offer.
Witrado (BOS): Boston has to get all the rotation help it can find, and Samardzija’s stock has dropped, lowering his price.
SP Stephen Strasburg
22 of 25
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Knobler (WAS): They're still in win-now mode, and they're already losing Jordan Zimmermann to free agency. The return for Strasburg would need to be big and immediate, so perhaps they just keep him.
Reuter (WAS): The Nationals came up infinitely short of expectations in 2015, but there is still enough talent on the roster to contend. Things could change come July, but for now they'll hold onto Strasburg.
Rymer (SD): San Diego general manager A.J. Preller has a handful of pieces that could interest the Nationals, and he strikes me as the kind of guy who would figure he couldn't lose in a deal for Strasburg. If he doesn't help the Padres contend, he'll be major deadline trade bait. If he does help the Padres contend, that could mean a postseason berth and maybe even an extended stay for Strasburg in his hometown.
Shafer (WAS): If the Nats are struggling in July, there'll be deafening buzz around Strasburg at the trade deadline. For now, they're not going to get the package they'd demand with so many free-agent arms available.
Witrado (NYY): The Yankees now have the farm system to pull off this kind of deal, and they have the money to extend Strasburg.
LF Justin Upton
23 of 25
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Knobler (BAL): The Orioles have specialized in letting free agents leave, but maybe this is the winter owner Peter Angelos lets them spend for what they need.
Reuter (LAA): No team got less out of the left field position last season than the Angels, as a handful of players combined to hit .216/.275/.317 with nine home runs and 51 RBI on the year. Upton would give the team some much-needed support for Trout and Pujols in the middle of the lineup.
Rymer (NYY): If the Yankees trade Gardner, they'll have a glaring hole in left field. Upton could fill that, and his relative youth (he's 28) would allow him to fit right in with the youth movement the Yankees are brewing.
Shafer (LAA): The Angels have cash to spend, a need in the outfield and could use another bat (at least) to pair with Mike Trout.
Witrado (NYM): They lose Cespedes, but Upton is a fine replacement.
SP Jordan Zimmermann
24 of 25
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Knobler (STL): The Lance Lynn injury leaves the Cardinals in need of a big starter. While they may play on Price or Greinke, Zimmermann might end up as the best fit.
Reuter (CHC): The Cubs will do their due diligence on the entire starting pitching market, but with a Jake Arrieta extension waiting around the corner, the idea of three $20 million-plus pitchers will eventually lead them to signing Zimmermann instead of Price or Greinke. You could do an awful lot worse for your No. 3 starter.
Rymer (SF): If the Giants miss out on Price and Greinke, it's easy to imagine them settling for the next-best option. That's Zimmermann, who would love pitching at AT&T Park as much as the next pitcher.
Shafer (CHC): He won't cost Price or Greinke money, but the Midwest native would slot nicely between newly minted NL Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta and veteran southpaw Jon Lester.
Witrado (LAD): They have the money to bring back Greinke and go after a second-tier free agent. That brings Zimmermann into play.
2B Ben Zobrist
25 of 25
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Knobler (CHC): He's thrived under Joe Maddon before, and his versatility is an even better fit now that Maddon has National League rules to work with.
Reuter (KC): Breaking the bank to re-sign Alex Gordon just doesn't make sense for the Royals when there are other immediate areas of need and more than a few future extensions to take into account. Zobrist will cost less money over fewer years, and the alternative would be going back to Omar Infante as the everyday second baseman.
Rymer (LAD): Zobrist is a former Andrew Friedman player who could fill the Dodgers' need at second base and also fit into their outfield situation. His bat would also look nice at the top of their lineup.
Shafer (CHC): After winning a ring with the Royals, Zobrist could go to another World Series contender. And manager Joe Maddon would get his favorite Swiss army knife back.
Witrado (KC): The team will lose its other free agents, but Zobrist’s versatility makes him a good fit for a team that has extra revenue after a couple of World Series runs.
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
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