5 Bold Predictions for College Football Week 11
Last week, chaos ruled in college football.
When Week 10 of the 2015 college football season began, some wondered how we’d sort out the 11 unbeaten teams remaining. When the smoke cleared on Saturday night, it was fair to wonder if we’d even have two unbeaten teams left standing in early December.
The week began with Northern Illinois upending Toledo, but the real fireworks hit on Saturday. Navy routed unbeaten Memphis, serving notice that it would be a factor in its new American Athletic Conference home. Oklahoma State blew past Trevone Boykin and TCU. Alabama completely controlled LSU and Leonard Fournette, handing its SEC West rival its first loss of the season.
And struggling Nebraska stunned Michigan State with a pair of late touchdowns, taking a controversial victory in East Lansing.
This weekend features three Top 25 matchups, but if it’s anything like last weekend, you’ll want to camp out by your TV for everything from Clemson-Syracuse to UCLA-Washington State to close out the day.
Here are five bold predictions for the week that lies ahead.
Alabama Will Roll at Mississippi State
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Nick Saban never looks too far ahead, so after last week’s dominant 30-16 win over then-No. 2 LSU, Alabama’s focused head coach surely turned quickly to this week’s visit to Mississippi State.
New No. 2 Alabama is back in the driver’s seat for the SEC West and a College Football Playoff berth, but a trip to Starkville is no walk in the park.
Davis-Wade Stadium can be an intimidating environment, but the Crimson Tide have handled it well since falling 17-12 in 2007. They’re unbeaten in three subsequent visits, outscoring the Bulldogs by an average of 25-5.6 and allowing only two touchdowns in three games.
Mississippi State quarterback Dak Prescott has validated his decision to return for a senior season, throwing for 2,351 yards with 18 touchdowns against one interception while serving as the team’s leading rusher with 418 yards and seven touchdowns.
But he hasn’t faced a defensive front like Alabama’s, which limited LSU’s Leonard Fournette to 31 yards on 19 carries last week.
Alabama junior tailback Derrick Henry, who has 1,254 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns, will continue his strong Heisman Trophy push with another 150-yard rushing game. Last week, he rushed for 210 yards and three touchdowns on 38 carries, putting himself at the forefront of the Heisman race, per Hunter Paniagua of the Advocate.
"He’s definitely a Heisman candidate,” Alabama left tackle Cam Robinson said afterward. "We showed that tonight.”
In Starkville, the Tide will hold Prescott in check, and the road to the College Football Playoff will roll on.
Memphis Will Upend Houston
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If you had to pick a game in preseason that would have national cachet in mid-November, you’d have gone a long way down the list before winding up at Memphis-Houston.
Yet that’s exactly how this season has played out, surprisingly enough. Memphis built on a 10-win 2014 and looked like a fringe College Football Playoff contender before falling to Navy, and new coach Tom Herman has tapped into Houston’s potential, as the Cougars are unbeaten.
Herman and Memphis coach Justin Fuente will be two of the most intriguing names on the 2015-16 coaching carousel, but for now they’ll battle for American Athletic Conference supremacy.
Memphis quarterback Paxton Lynch leads a potent offense. He’s thrown for 3,014 yards with 19 touchdowns against two interceptions. Houston’s Greg Ward Jr. has thrived in Herman’s spread offense. He’s thrown for 2,115 yards with 13 touchdowns against four interceptions, and he’s also Houston’s No. 2 rusher with 835 yards and 16 touchdowns on the ground.
Expect a high-scoring game, with the difference coming with a key turnover. Memphis will win in Houston and take a huge step toward an AAC title.
N.C. State Will Upset Florida State
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Odds Shark indicates that Florida State is nearly a double-digit-point favorite over ACC Atlantic foe N.C. State in Tallahassee, but this game screams “trap” for the Seminoles.
For the first time since 2011, FSU (7-2) will not be preparing for the ACC title game after being eliminated last week by No. 1 Clemson in a hard-fought 23-13 loss. N.C. State (6-3) played a Charmin-soft nonconference schedule but is bowl-eligible for the second consecutive season under Dave Doeren’s leadership.
A year ago, the Wolfpack gave FSU everything they wanted before falling 56-41, taking a 24-7 lead after a quarter and leading 38-28 in the third quarter before Jameis Winston rallied the Seminoles to victory.
Senior quarterback Jacoby Brissett has been an excellent mobile passer, throwing for 1,798 yards with 14 touchdowns and two interceptions.
Meanwhile, Florida State struggled offensively against Clemson, getting a Dalvin Cook 75-yard touchdown run on the game’s second play but managing only two field goals the rest of the way. According to Garry Smits of Jacksonville.com, coach Jimbo Fisher will turn to Everett Golson over Sean Maguire at quarterback, but it’s unclear if that’ll make any difference.
Brissett and the ‘Pack will outscore FSU’s offense and take a surprising upset win.
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Oklahoma Will Upset Baylor
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All season, we thought that Baylor-TCU on Black Friday was the biggest game of the Big 12 season. Shows how much we know. TCU’s 49-29 upset at Oklahoma State’s hands ruined the Horned Frogs’ unbeaten season and thrust the Cowboys into the league title and College Football Playoff discussion.
It also made the league’s backloaded closing stretch even wilder.
Despite a surprising loss to Texas, Oklahoma is 8-1 and right in the thick of the league and CFP races, thanks to games remaining against TCU, OSU and 8-0 Baylor.
The Sooners have thrived with a new Air Raid offense piloted by quarterback Baker Mayfield, but they’ve also leaned more on a run game powered by Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon recently. OU has 14 rushing touchdowns in its last four games, which is important to control the clock against Baylor’s uptempo scheme.
Freshman quarterback Jarrett Stidham looked plenty comfortable replacing injured Seth Russell, leading the Bears to an important road win at Kansas State. He has two incredible targets in Corey Coleman (FBS-leading 20 touchdowns) and KD Cannon. But he’s still a true freshman.
Expect OU’s defense to force him into a key mistake or two and fight its way into the playoff picture with a huge victory.
Washington State Will Surprise UCLA
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Coming off a 3-9 season, Washington State and Mike Leach got off to an inauspicious start by dropping the season opener to FCS foe Portland State. Since then, the Cougars have shown that ugly game was an anomaly. They’re 6-3, with the only other losses coming to Cal and Stanford by a combined eight points.
Quarterback Luke Falk is a classic Leach-model passer, throwing 503 times through nine games. He has 3,736 yards with 33 touchdowns against seven interceptions, completing 70.2 percent of his passes.
The Bruins and freshman quarterback Josh Rosen are still in the mix for the Pac-12 South, but they face a tough closing kick with the Cougars, Utah and cross-town rival Southern California.
Look for Rosen, who has 18 touchdowns against seven interceptions, to make a freshman mistake or two—just enough for the Cougars offense to pounce and pull off an upset in the Rose Bowl.
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