Bowl Projections 2015: CFP Predictions and Week 11 Games to Watch

Goodbye, LSU. So long, Florida State. Farewell, TCU. Better luck next time, Michigan State. It was fun while it lasted, Memphis.

The College Football Playoff selection committee released its first poll of the season Tuesday before the Week 10 slate of games, and the sport wasted zero time before it assumed its typical role of havoc-creator. Those five playoff contenders all lost Saturday and were dealt crippling blows in the race for the postseason.

LSU, TCU and Michigan State all have a chance to reach the playoffs with a single defeat if other teams fall as well. However, November losses are difficult to overcome, especially when Alabama, Baylor and Ohio State all have the inside track for the conference titles in their respective conferences.

With that in mind, here is a look at a College Football Playoff projection heading into the Week 11 schedule, as well as some important games to watch.

Matchup	Bowl Game
1. Ohio State Buckeyes vs. 4. Baylor Bears	Orange Bowl
2. Clemson Tigers vs. 3. Alabama Crimson Tide	Cotton Bowl

Intriguing Matchups to Watch with Playoff Implications

No. 10 Florida Gators at South Carolina Gamecocks

This is another game against an SEC East team Florida should handle, but it will take a much better effort than fans saw Saturday against Vanderbilt.

This one is on the road after that scare came at home. The Gators played an ugly game, turned the ball over four times and needed a field goal in the final minutes to escape a contest that left many questioning whether they truly are a Top 10 squad. 

The Gators’ only real chance at the playoffs is winning the SEC, but they cannot afford another loss before the conference title game because they already dropped one. Two losses with one coming against a South Carolina team that is 1-6 in the conference probably wouldn’t be enough, so Florida must turn in a much more effective effort Saturday.

No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes at Illinois Fighting Illini

Jay LaPrete/Associated Press

On paper, Ohio State should handle Illinois without much trouble, but the Buckeyes allowed 35 points the last time they visited Champaign. This is an early kickoff that will test Ohio State’s intensity and willingness to get up for a weaker opponent before a difficult closing stretch.

What’s more, fans will get an opportunity to watch J.T. Barrett again as he returns from a one-game suspension. Look for the Buckeyes to utilize a read-option attack with Barrett and Ezekiel Elliott, especially with the wide receiver corps dealing with so many injuries.

Kevin McGuire of CollegeFootballTalk acknowledged the offense is more effective with Barrett under center:

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In seven games, Barrett has completed 66.1 percent of his passes for 472 yards and seven touchdowns with two interceptions. Barrett is also Ohio State’s second-leading rusher behind Ezekiel Elliott, with 329 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns. Having Barrett on the field makes Ohio State’s offense more diverse and difficult to slow down compared to when [Cardale] Jones is on the field, although Jones can pick up some hard-earned yards on the ground as well when needed. 

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This is a chance for the Scarlet and Gray to make a statement before the Michigan State, Michigan and potential Big Ten Championship Game gauntlet, but they cannot afford to overlook an early start on the road.

No. 4 Alabama at No. 20 Mississippi State

Alabama is the more talented team in this matchup, but there is a real danger of a hangover effect after its marquee victory over LSU. 

There is also plenty of skill on the Mississippi State side, including quarterback Dak Prescott. Prescott has 2,351 passing yards, 418 rushing yards and 25 total touchdowns and only has a single interception all year. He will test a Crimson Tide defense that could be physically spent after dominating the Tigers. 

Alabama has fallen victim to dual-threat quarterbacks in the recent past, and Prescott fits the bill. The LSU win was monumental, but it won’t mean anything if the Crimson Tide don’t come to play again Saturday.

No. 15 Oklahoma at No. 8 Baylor

This is the game of the week between two explosive offenses. Baylor leads the nation with a ridiculous 57.4 points a game, while Oklahoma checks in at third with 46.3 points a game.

The Sooners fell out of the national picture after their stunning loss to archrival Texas, but this is a golden opportunity to insert themselves right back into the playoff race on the road against the Bears.

The difference in this game could be Oklahoma’s defense. It ranks a solid 16th in the nation in points allowed per contest, which is impressive enough on its own, but having a defense that talented is foreign territory in the Big 12. Oklahoma State is the only other defense in the conference in the top 50 in points allowed per game, and the Cowboys are a middling 46th.

That Oklahoma defense will be well aware of quarterback Jarrett Stidham given coach Bob Stoops’ comments, per Jake Trotter of ESPN.com: “The guy is completing 77 percent of his passes, and I thought he did a really good job just going to right guys. … Everyone knew that coming out of high school. He's got an excellent arm. Looked really good."

Stidham is really good, and the Sooners haven’t faced an offense like this all year. In fact, they haven’t played Baylor, TCU or Oklahoma State, which skews the defensive numbers. Stidham and a raucous crowd will prove to be the ultimate difference as the Bears remain in the playoff hunt.