Big Ten Basketball: Preview and Predictions for 2015-16 Season
We're not quite sure why Tom Izzo looks so perplexed.
Sure, it's not last year's Big Ten. But it should be special nonetheless.
We're talking Michigan State still being at the top of its game. Indiana should be able to take a leap into national relevance. Wisconsin won't drop as far as many teams would after losing two high NBA first-round draft picks. And Maryland is looking to party like it's 2001-02.
Throw in Purdue having arguably the league's best player (by the NBA standard) and a healthy Michigan...
The Big Ten will be right among the country's best conferences.
It could really be a more formidable league this year, from top to virtually bottom (we're looking at you, Rutgers). But maybe the Scarlet Knights can surprise us a little, like a top-shelf team last year.
We knew how good Wisconsin would be last year. But Maryland came out of nowhere throughout the regular season. Relatively speaking, Sparty also came out of nowhere—though how dare we doubt Izzo!—to reach the Final Four.
But there was a legitimate drop-off beyond those three teams. That gap is closed considerably with Iowa, Illinois and Northwestern all perceived as better (as the saying goes, on paper).
If you value the Big Ten coaches' opinions, only three of the top 10 players from last season are back.
The new crop has a ways to go to reach the level of influence of Frank Kaminsky, Sam Dekker, Branden Dawson and a few others.
But keep watching. Some teams are really grown up for this season.
Top Storylines
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The New Crop?
The Big Ten was a really cool blend of young, old and upstart last year. Aaron White (Iowa), Frank Kaminsky (Wisconsin) and Dez Wells (Maryland) are all graduated.
D'Angelo Russell wasn't around very long and Ohio State couldn't maximize his stay with a deep tournament run.
Kaminsky's buddy, Sam Dekker, worked his way into NBA draft pick—and left Madison early after a phenomenal NCAA tournament.
That leaves Maryland's Melo Trimble, Indiana's Yogi Ferrell and Purdue center A.J. Hammons as the top returning players—if you're buying what the league's coaches are selling from last season. Only Ferrell was a first-teamer, though Trimble earned that distinction by a Big Ten media vote.
Likely no Big Ten rep will get drafted like Russell going No. 2 last year. But Michigan's Caris LeVert should be in the lottery mix. Maryland could have Trimble and freshman big man Diamond Stone seeking big dollars.
Put it this way, the Big Ten's not hurting for talent.
Will Bo Go?
Wisconsin coach Bo Ryan couldn't be faulted for thinking about retirement. He was coming off a dream season—both in reaching the national championship game and in the fun the Badgers seemed to have getting there. But now he'll have to hear about, and be asked about, his intentions to retire.
He stated as much in June in a statement but has since backtracked as of August, according to Jeff Potrykus of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
Ryan certainly won't be forced out any time soon, even if these aren't his best Badgers. He's still 357-125 in 14 seasons at Wisconsin and has never missed an NCAA tournament.
Is This Maryland's Year?
Instead of "Dirty Harry," let's call him "Dirty Turgeon."
Do your Terrapins feel lucky, Mark?
Maryland sure punked a lot of teams in close games last year, going 12-1 in games decided by six points or fewer. They get back a ton of talent, plus bring in Duke transfer Rasheed Sulaimon and stud freshman center Diamond Stone.
The big loss is Dez Wells, who was a catalyst in playing style and ego for last year's fairly unanticipated success.
Is that great coaching and play, or does all that stuff eventually even out? The Terps have their eyes on a national title, so they'll need a few close wins at some points of the year.
How Many Bids?
B/R's Kerry Miller sees a for-certain four and a potential eight NCAA tournament bids for the Big Ten.
Michigan has a potential high draft pick in Caris LeVert healthy again, so that'll boost the conference profile. Northwestern is still trying to lay claim to its first NCAA tournament bid, which isn't totally out of the question this year.
It'll be interesting to see how non-conference play goes to bolster the league's reputation and perhaps set up more postseason bids. Michigan and Indiana should be improved, among others. Last year, Wisconsin won the Big Ten regular season by two games on Maryland and four on fellow Final Four participant Michigan State. The rest of the group was considerably behind.
Wisconsin being worse (that's a relative word, of course) isn't necessarily great news for the league. It needs to do well in November and December, collectively speaking, to let parity in January and February be a good thing—and not just cannibalize the league.
The Favorite
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Maryland Terrapins
There must be days when coach Mark Turgeon feels like he is being asked to put together one of those puzzles for five-year-olds. The kind where the pieces are huge and the pictures are easy to discern.
It would seem Turgeon has all the pieces. He just has to put them together.
It has a top-flight point guard, Melo Trimble, and picked up a high-caliber freshman center (Diamond Stone) who will hardly have to be the focal point.
Forward Jake Layman can be a little bit of everything, and he'll know his role—even if it can change game-to-game.
Sure, we're concerned about Rasheed Sulaimon. Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski doesn't kick players off his teams very often. How's the ex-Dukie going to fit in at Maryland?
Truth is, he better. This is not a boat worth rocking—nor a table worth upturning, if you want to keep the puzzle metaphor kind of going.
The Challengers
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Michigan State Spartans
We generally have times each season where we take Tom Izzo for granted.
He's just supposed to win. He's just supposed to get to the Final Four. He's supposed to do it all even after losing to...Texas Southern?
Izzo's team, strangely, earned some respect by "coming so far" after losing a nonconference game like that one.
We know the Spartans will be right at the top of the Big Ten yet again. The question becomes if they'll have a top gear. Caleb Swanigan changed his mind and went to Purdue. Travis Trice was playing his best ball toward the end of last season and ended as the team MVP and NCAA regional. The mercurial Branden Dawson (by his stats, anyway) was a solid leader.
We watched Izzo's team grow right before our eyes. Lourawls Nairn (we like to call him Tum Tum) and Gavin Schilling grew in confidence. Denzel Valentine finished last season strong and then had a strong summer tour to Italy. His versatility will be critical in allowing Izzo to tinker elsewhere.
We're so used to seeing the Spartans be at their best toward the end of the season.
Don't expect any different this year. And it would be a comfortable path for West Virginia transfer, Eron Harris, himself a late boomer.
Purdue Boilermakers
In its last dozen games, Purdue won nine. A.J. Hammons figures to be one of the league's best players, and now he's complemented by one of the country's best freshmen, Caleb Swanigan. Purdue fans couldn't be any more excited if Robbie Hummel found another year of eligibility.
Indiana Hoosiers
We know this is a big year for Tom Crean, whose first name might be changed by the media to "beleaguered" if the Hoosiers don't get rolling, as it's presumed they should.
This was a team that was worst in the Big Ten in points allowed. Good news, though: It returns one of the top players, Yogi Ferrell, and also scored more points than any of its league peers.
Wisconsin Badgers
No Frank, no Sam. We're not ready to write off the Badgers totally, however. Bo Ryan has never missed an NCAA tournament in 14 years. The big question is Nigel Hayes. We know he can produce, but can he be The Man?
He was a third-team All-Big Ten selection last year who shot "only" 54 percent—worse than Frank Kaminsky or Sam Dekker—despite being at best the third option. As a junior, he'll have so much more of a load to carry.
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The Bottom Dwellers
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Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Still the place where the rest of the Big Ten goes to get its reserves some playing time.
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Tim Miles is so much fun to follow on Twitter. But Terran Petteway is in the D-League now, making a tough decision after his mother passed away last spring. A nonconference schedule featuring Villanova, Cincy and Miami could really hammer this team down even before Big Ten play starts.
Penn State Nittany Lions
History is not on Penn State's side. It lost D.J. Newbill's nearly 21 points a game. He is the school's fourth-best scorer of all time. Those guys don't come around to a program like PSU very often. Point guard Shep Garner started all but one game last year (senior day) and was second on the team in points. But he shot just 36 percent.
Best Rivalry
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Michigan State/Wisconsin
The Spartans have an 11-10 edge in the rivalry since 2006, and they've played in five of the past nine conference tournaments, as B/R's Kerry Miller pointed out in August at the top of his "best rivalries" list.
Last year's tournament matchup was a classic overtime slugfest, among three that needed extra time. Four games were decided by one point.
Will we see them both in the Final Four again this year?
We're not counting on it. But we're not counting the series to cool down that much, either.
Coaches Under the Most Pressure
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Tom Crean, Indiana
To whom much has been given—or been acquired—much is expected.
The Hoosiers were rebuilt by Crean, and he went to a pair of Sweet 16 games before producing a 37-29 mark the past two years. Last year's NCAA tournament appearance seems like a blip of success on a radar of disappointment.
Crean's harped on locker room leadership. But he also needs to find a way to get the most out of Yogi Ferrell and a freshman big man the Hoosiers desperately needed—Thomas Bryant.
We'll have a pretty good idea where Crean's career path is headed by late December. IU will go to the Maui Invitational and also play Duke and Notre Dame.
Bo Ryan, Wisconsin
It's too bad Ryan started to talk about the R-word. He deserves absolutely to leave on his terms, but he's going to be quizzed about it all season. As if he weren't already crusty enough with media sometimes.
Tim Miles, Nebraska
Miles still seems to be quite popular in Lincoln, where football rules. But going 13-18 last year amid actual expectations was a tough pill. There's general angst around town, especially since Mike Riley's first year hasn't gone so well next door.
Miles thrived at lower levels, including Colorado State. But there's a chance he's met his match with this school in this conference. These Cornhuskers—which go by the charmingly corny "Nebrasketball"—may not be much better this year.
Eddie Jordan, Rutgers
Rutgers is 22-43 under his watch and won just two Big Ten games last year. Perhaps the key to survival is merely steering clear of humiliating headlines. But perpetually bad programs tend to find those.
Best Frontcourt
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Purdue Boilermakers
Something old and something new.
It's a perfect balance at Purdue, which is the king of the Big Ten frontcourts by vulturing Caleb Swanigan from Michigan State and pairing him with the fast-developing A.J. Hammons.
Coach Matt Painter has a deft newcomer in Swanigan who will force teams to adjust in matchups.
Hammons will be a first-team consideration in the league, and the 7-footer could be in position to be a first-round NBA draft pick.
Then don't forget power forward Vince Edwards, who may be able to shift to small forward because of Swanigan's arrival. He's fine being an opponent's afterthought and even led the Boilermakers in assists last year.
And Purdue can even bring 7'2'' Isaac Haas off the bench. He has faced foul-trouble issues but can afford to use his five aggressively considering the team's depth.
Best Backcourt
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Maryland Terrapins
There are plenty of terrific guard lines around, but at some point you've got to say the best team in the league—possibly the country—is the best at something.
And the Terps' mojo starts with their guard play.
Melo Trimble should be more versatile as a sophomore, and he's relentless at trying to get to the rim.
The question about him is, how's his leadership?
Dez Wells is gone. He gets Rasheed Sulaimon in return. The somewhat disgraced Dukie is a huge get if he doesn't cause the same headaches in College Park that he apparently did in Durham. He should be pretty motivated after missing out on a national title last year.
Then watch out for wing Jake Layman, who is one of those guys Big Ten coaches will be talking about a lot.
Freshmen to Watch
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Deyonta Davis, Michigan State
Part of a studly recruiting class (even without Caleb Swanigan), he averaged 20 points and a wild 16.9 rebounds as a high school senior. According to Joe Rexrode of the Detroit Free Press, "Izzo has said Davis reminds him of former MSU forward Adreian Payne in terms of skill set and athleticism."
Thomas Bryant, Indiana
Just by being present, and getting up and down the floor hard, Bryant will be an impact inside for a team that has more than enough perimeter options.
Caleb Swanigan, Purdue
Eligible at last, the big fella can show off a versatile game. Had a tidy 12 points with 11 rebounds and four assists in 25 minutes of his first exhibition game.
Diamond Stone, Maryland
Perfect player, perfect timing. His size and instincts, coupled with guard Melo Trimble's abilities to drive to the rim, should really take Maryland to another level.
All-Conference Teams
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FIRST TEAM
Yogi Ferrell, G, Indiana
Averaged 16.3 points and 4.9 assists this past season. With even more talent around him, that should raise his game and profile, too.
Denzel Valentine, G-F, Michigan State
Leader never takes a night off, as witnessed in producing a triple-double during an exhibition game already.
Melo Trimble G, Maryland
Loves to get to the foul line and shot a Big Ten-best 86.3 percent. Will have to raise his leadership game, but beyond that the sky's the limit for his sophomore year.
A.J. Hammons, F/C, Purdue
Recorded six double-doubles last year and led the Big Ten in blocked shots for the third consecutive season.
Nigel Hayes, F, Wisconsin
Stenographers love typing what he says. So do sportswriters. Unanimous all-Big Ten selection and should be in line for an impact promotion after being the third wheel to Kaminsky and Dekker last season.
SECOND TEAM
Caris LeVert, G, Michigan
James Blackmon Jr., G, Indiana
Jake Layman, G, Maryland
Bronson Koenig, G, Wisconsin
Jarrod Uthoff, F, Iowa
Regular-Season Standings
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1. Maryland
2. Michigan State
3. Indiana
4. Purdue
5. Wisconsin
6. Michigan
7. Iowa
8. Ohio State
9. Northwestern
10. Illinois
11. Minnesota
12. Penn State
13. Nebraska
14. Rutgers
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