The 2015-16 NCAA Basketball Season by the Numbers
By now, you've probably read more than your fair share of season-preview content, but there's always room for some fun with numbers.
No need to fear, math haters. There's no calculus or graduate-level regression analysis here. It's just a bunch of good-to-know tidbits for the upcoming college basketball season, presented in numerical form, ranging from how many points per game the reigning national champions lost to how many people have nothing better to do than dedicate a Twitter account to hating on Indiana head coach Tom Crean.
Let's get the ball rolling with the one number everyone will be talking about.
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30: Seconds on the shot clock for men's college basketball this season. This keeps working its way into the early stages of every CBB preview piece, but if you think you're sick of hearing about it already, just wait until every color commentator feels the need to offer his two cents on the change.
In theory, the primary benefit here is that it will keep teams from lackadaisically walking the ball up the court and waiting 15 seconds to really get into their offensive sets, but brace yourself for a whole slew of statistical analysis on whether the reduced shot clock is actually having the desired effect.
12: Total number of rule changes going into effect this season. As if the chopped shot clock wasn't enough, the restricted-area arc was expanded from three feet to four feet, faking fouls and shot-clock violations are now able to be reviewed by the officials, only three timeouts carry over to the second half instead of four and several other changes were made this summer in hopes of both speeding up and cleaning up the game.
Unfortunately, things are most likely going to slow down and get ugly for the time being. Officials had a hard enough time dealing with the change in verbiage on the block/charge call in recent years, so it would be foolish to expect them to hit the ground running with a dozen changes in one offseason.
64.8: National average for adjusted tempo in 2014-15, as calculated by KenPom.com. After hovering in the 66-67 possessions-per-game range for the past decade, the average college basketball game last season featured one full possession less than any other season in the KenPom era. That's worth noting if you were wondering why so many changes were made this summer.
Also worth noting: Pomeroy already has the average tempo for this season projected at 68.5, which would be the highest since 2003. Granted, a very significant percentage of that increase is undoubtedly tied to an expected increase in whistles, but it's a start.
156: Games being played on Friday. While the MLB and NFL have gone the opposite direction by teasing its fans with just one game on opening day, college basketball trusts that you're already in midseason sitting-on-the-couch form by offering a smorgasbord of games. However...
39: Games being played on Friday between a D-I school and non-D-I school. It will only be a matter of three days before we get some incredible matchups as part of the Tip-Off Marathon, but Friday's buffet is almost entirely unpalatable. For every extremely intriguing Pittsburgh vs. Gonzaga or Belmont vs. Marquette, there are at least 15 instances of Randolph College at Longwood or Lyndon State at New Hampshire.
Waiting more than seven months for the very first day of the season and getting this slate of games is the equivalent of fasting for 10 days before filling up on bread. Bring on the meat!
502: Wins at the D-I level for Billy Donovan before leaving for the NBA. Within the next decade, we're going to lose a ton of coaching icons to retirement, and at just 50 years of age, Donovan was in a great position at Florida to eventually ascend to the throne of college hoops coaching. But hey, who can blame him for taking a hiatus from the recruiting grind to make $6 million per year to coach Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook?
Don't be shocked if Donovan follows the Rick Pitino and John Calipari career arc by eventually returning to the college game, but we'll miss him (and Fred Hoiberg) this year.
29: Minimum number of Twitter accounts dedicated to either mocking or chastising everything Indiana head coach Tom Crean says or does. Some people really have nothing better to do with their time.
63.9: Points per game Kentucky has to replace this season. These things happen when your seven leading scorers declare for the NBA draft.
60.9: Points per game Duke has to replace this season—including the 149 points Rasheed Sulaimon scored before being dismissed last year. Throw in Wisconsin losing five of its seven leading scorers from last year, and it's no wonder it doesn't feel like there are any elite teams this year.
7.4: Points per game Cincinnati has to replace this season. In five consecutive seasons, at least two teams from outside the preseason AP Top 25 ended up earning a No. 3 seed or better in the NCAA tournament. The Bearcats should be considered an early candidate to fill one of those spots this year.
38: Wins Fred VanVleet would need to tie the all-time record of 133 wins, set by Duke's Shane Battier. It's pretty crazy that Wichita State has won at least 30 games in three straight seasons and would need a near-perfect season for VanVleet to break the mark. Then again, the Blue Devils went 133-15 during Battier's four seasons in Durham, including 17 NCAA tournament wins, so that should be a nearly unbreakable mark.
14: Games that Michigan's Caris LeVert missed last season. The Wolverines were also without Derrick Walton Jr. for their final 12 games. Now, they were pretty bad long before those injuries—the duo scored 48 of the team's 70 points in the infamous loss to the New Jersey Institute of Technology—but their absence allowed other players to develop and opened a door for Aubrey Dawkins and Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman to show what they can do.
It's not often that a team goes from a .500 record to a preseason Top 25 ranking without adding some big-name freshmen or transfers, but getting a healthy LeVert and Walton back is a darn fine "addition." Keep in mind, LeVert appeared on a few preseason first-team All-American lists last year, so this isn't just some potential breakout player we're talking about. He arguably belongs in the top 10 of everyone's preseason top 100 rankings.
196: Days since Cheick Diallo committed to Kansas. The freshman is already more than midway through his second semester of college, but the NCAA is still reportedly sifting through his coursework and transcripts dating back to sixth grade.
It takes less than three months to get secret government clearance, but it has been more than twice that long and the NCAA still hasn't decided if Diallo passed enough social studies exams to play basketball? Really? How about you let the kid play and deal with a much, much bigger issue?
22: Alleged "shows" that took place in Louisville's Billy Minardi Hall from 2010-14, according to Katina Powell, author of the tell-all book that has been hanging like a tornado cloud over Rick Pitino's program for the past few weeks. Hopefully the return of actual basketball games will mitigate the amount of time and print dedicated to this scandal, but rest assured it isn't going away anytime soon.
327: Total number of points scored last season by current options in Gonzaga's backcourt. The Zags have three incredible assets in the frontcourt, but no sure things on the perimeter. Josh Perkins should be able to handle primary point guard duties. Kyle Dranginis might be a suitable starting shooting guard. Eric McClellan could be a solid combo guard. But that's a lot of guessing and projecting compared to 12 months ago when we all knew what to expect from Kevin Pangos and Gary Bell.
442: All-time record for made three-pointers in one season, set by VMI in 2006-07. Even the top teams didn't reach 350 last year, so that record probably isn't in any imminent danger of falling. However, both Indiana and Villanova could come close. With Indiana's Troy Williams improving his perimeter game and Kris Jenkins likely starting at "power forward" for Villanova, both figure to have four very capable shooters on the court pretty often.
24: Double-doubles recorded by Stony Brook's Jameel Warney last year. There's always at least one minor conference senior who takes the stat-nerd world by storm (See: Williams, Alan.) Louisiana-Lafayette's Shawn Long is another strong candidate, but look for Warney to make some national waves in leading the Seawolves to the NCAA tournament for the first time in school history.
70: Percent of Big 12 teams that received at least one vote in the AP Top 25. Who knows what led Randy Rosetta to cast a 24th-place vote for Oklahoma State, but the top six teams in this conference are very strong and the Cowboys could do some damage, too. Kansas, Iowa State and Oklahoma all open the season ranked in the Top Eight.
18: Highest that Michigan State ranked in any AP poll last season before reaching the Final Four. Two years ago, Connecticut briefly sneaked into the Top 10, but did not rank higher than 18th in any January, February or March poll before winning the title. More often than not over the past decade, at least one team has waited until March to finally hit its stride. Who will be that team this year?
Now, let's count it down to the start of the regular season!
10: Freshmen projected by DraftExpress to be taken in the top 18 of the 2016 NBA draft. There were a total of 13 freshmen taken in the first round last year, so this is hardly out of the ordinary. College basketball fans had better savor the limited opportunities to watch the likes of Ben Simmons, Skal Labissiere, Brandon Ingram and Jaylen Brown for a few months.
9: Games that both Jim Boeheim (Syracuse) and Larry Brown (SMU) are required to miss this season as part of the fallout from the academic issues with their respective programs. Between the nearly inevitable increase in fouls and all of the scandal news that broke this offseason, let's go ahead and assume the 2015-16 season will come to be remembered as the "Year of the Penalties."
8: Projected draft picks participating in the Champions Classic (if Diallo is eligible). In addition to the eight expected to get taken, Duke's Grayson Allen, Kentucky's Tyler Ulis and Kansas' Wayne Selden all have a pretty realistic chance of hearing their names called in June, too. For a decently sized sampling of 2016-17 NBA rookies, make sure you're watching on Nov. 17.
7: Where California's second-best freshman ranks nationally, according to 247Sports.com. In Jaylen Brown and Ivan Rabb, the Golden Bears have the fourth- and seventh-best freshmen in the country, respectively. Usually, only Duke or Kentucky could pull off that type of haul. Instead, it's California—a team that hasn't ranked in the Top 12 of the AP poll since 1994—with legitimate Final Four aspirations as a result of some great recruiting.
6: Approximate number of games North Carolina's Marcus Paige will miss, provided the initial 3-4 week recovery timetable from a broken bone in his nonshooting hand is correct. If it takes a bit longer, he will miss the huge showdown with Maryland on Dec. 1. Until then, though, the Tar Heels don't play a single team that received a single vote in the preseason AP poll. They'll be just fine, and might actually reap long-term benefits from needing to give more minutes to guys like Joel Berry, Theo Pinson and Kenny Williams.
5: Teams that received at least one first-place vote in the preseason AP Top 25. If we include the votes that Duke got in the coaches poll, there are actually six different teams regarded as the best in the country. It's hardly uncommon for there to be a little bit of dissension up top, but you have to go back to the 2004-05 season to find the last time there was this much disagreement in the Top Five.
(Despite that preseason parity, 2004-05 ended up being one of the "chalkiest" seasons ever. Illinois and North Carolina dominated the entire regular season. Seven of the eight teams that ultimately earned a No. 1 or No. 2 seed opened the season ranked in the Top 11, and 13 of the Top 14 teams in the preseason AP Top 25 ended up with a No. 5 seed or better.)
4: Years of college basketball this will be for Ron Baker. Actually, it's more like three and a half, because he missed 21 games with a fractured foot as a freshman. It only feels like he has been around for more than a decade. Other prominent members of the "How are you still here?" club include Kansas' Perry Ellis, Iowa State's Georges Niang, UNC's Paige and Brice Johnson, Arizona's Kaleb Tarczewski, Villanova's Ryan Arcidiacono and Duke's (insert first name) Plumlee.
3: ACC schools ranked in the Top Six of the preseason AP Top 25. The conference had four teams in the Top Nine last November, and all four eventually earned a No. 4 seed or better. Will Duke, North Carolina and Virginia be able to do it again this year?
2: Teams in different conferences this year. Thank the basketball gods, we finally had an offseason without an inordinate amount of conference realignment. Northern Kentucky jumped from the Atlantic Sun to the Horizon League, opening the door for NJIT to move from Independent to the Atlantic Sun—immediately becoming one of the favorites to win in its new conference.
1: Times in the past 40 years that Maryland was ranked No. 3 or better in the preseason AP Top 25. Not very coincidentally, that was also the year that the Terrapins won their only national championship. In fact, they have been ranked in the preseason Top Five just twice in the past three decades. Both times, they competed in the Final Four. Fear the No. 3 Turtles.
0: Bleacher Report experts who are projecting the reigning national champions for a Final Four appearance. In the past 14 years, only one defending champ advanced so far as the Elite Eight, and those 2006-07 Florida Gators brought back virtually everyone from the first title team. That isn't even remotely the case for Duke, but how can you ever count out a coach with 12 Final Fours and five national championships?
Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.
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