How High Can Chelsea Realistically Finish in the Premier League?
As defending champions—currently 16th in the Premier League—Chelsea's immediate mission is not repeating nor challenging for a top-four position. Jose Mourinho's current task is simple respectability.
The west Londoners fell from their perch as England's best team in the space of four months. Those closely monitoring the situation might have announced that since a 5-0 drubbing of Swansea City, in January, Mourinho's men were nosediving, but silverware comes with convenient amnesia attached.
Avaricious post-season. Expedited pre-season. A lacklustre, if not arrogant summer transfer market. An ever-improving Premier League middle class. These have amalgamated into the Blues' dismal form—a story told by their meagre 11-point collection from 12 fixtures.
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Were current form prolonged (taking less than one point per match) relegation would likely be Chelsea's fate, but with confidence, we can assume Mourinho's woes will not delve that deep.
Conventional logic, therefore, suggests ascension—but how far can the champions climb?
Twenty-six fixtures remain on the Premier League schedule, translating into 78 points. Perfection from November through May would give Chelsea 89 points.
Their form makes a two-game winning streak impossible, much less 26.
Drop under 80 points and the title is, for all intents and purposes, lost. Meaning Chelsea could only lose three matches all season (winning the other 23) to even hope of retaining their crown.
West London celebrating a fifth Premier League trophy must wait until 2016/17 at the soonest.
No longer having title aspirations, the thought becomes salvaging Champions League football. While the odds are not favourable, they are certainly kinder than winning the league.
Since 2010/11, England's fourth-place team has averaged 72 points. On their current total, the Blues could drop 17 more points and have 72 come season's end. This, however, would be an all-time turnaround—requiring both an unexplainable stumble from multiple front-runners and the resurgence of a wounded Chelsea.
Short of winning the Champions League (automatically qualifying for European's elite competition) or venerable magic on the British Isles, Mourinho getting his club in England's top four would be fortuitous (at best) from their current position.
Their realistic target should be just below the Europa League positions.
Chelsea should have the collective wherewithal to place anywhere from eighth to sixth. In the recent past, traditionally massive clubs have missed European spots and have benefited the following season. Liverpool in 2013/14, for example, with no obligation other than domestic cups, nearly won the Premier League.
Chelsea would probably prefer missing Europe altogether if Champions League duty is removed. Not all European football is worth playing; there is no discernible glory in flying to remote eastern European locales on Thursday, then traveling to Stoke-on-Trent for a Sunday clash at the Britannia Stadium.
Mourinho's job, though, likely hinges on Champions League qualification.
Owner Roman Abramovich has shown his commitment to the Portuguese, by sticking with him during the worst periods in both of their respective footballing endeavours. The Russian is a pragmatic individual, one does not earn billions by being an idiot nor whimsical.
In 2009/10, Chelsea won the double under Carlo Ancelotti. The following season, the Italian, during a woeful 10-match spell—including losses to Sunderland, Birmingham and Wolves in the space of one month—kept his position until the end of the season.
There was no quick-trigger for the double-winning manager, and whatever Ancelotti means to Chelsea, Mourinho is that times 100.
The 52-year-old has earned the right to sink or swim. The numbers are not favourable, as they instill little confidence in his ability to overcome them, but history suggests Abramovich will permit his trophy-winning manager (with international clout) the season.
Perhaps the most confusing element of this entire Chelsea episode is they are the reigning champions. Until May, they have golden badges on their shirts—almost taunting them and their supporters with every loss, while spurring their opposition to give their absolute best.
Thus, as purported champions, entertaining the notion they can rebound must be considered, but each time this season we thought they had turned the corner (West Bromwich Albion, Arsenal, Dynamo Kiev, etc.), they failed to capitalise.
Mourinho has the talent, the squad and the apparent backing to start a march toward respectability—beginning with Norwich City at Stamford Bridge when play resumes—we shall see how high the Blues can climb.
The current estimate looks somewhere in the lower top half, but, there are still some major puzzle pieces outstanding.
*Stats via WhoScored.com; transfer fees via Soccerbase where not noted.
