UNC Basketball: Complete Roster, Season Preview for 2015-16 Tar Heels

A year after the North Carolina Tar Heels navigated a tough schedule to reach the Sweet 16, the squad is back for more.

UNC returns nine of its 10 main rotational players from last season with only starting guard J.P. Tokoto leaving for the NBA. The talent and experience remaining on the roster are enough for many to consider the team a legitimate national championship contender. The media clearly agree, naming the Tar Heels the No. 1 team in the country in the preseason Associated Press poll.

Before lifting a trophy, North Carolina must first face rigorous challenges both in and out of the ACC, beginning with a Nov. 13 battle against Temple.

This year certainly has the potential to be a memorable one, so prepare yourself with everything you need to know in this season preview for the 2015-16 Tar Heels.

Key Newcomers

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This was a relatively down year for recruiting by North Carolina standards, pulling in a class ranked just No. 54 by 247 Sports. A lot of this had to do with a lack of minutes to go around for newcomers—not exactly a draw for those who plan on staying one year before going to to the NBA.

The good news is the players coming in should be useful both in smaller roles this year and bigger ones going forward.

Kenny Williams, G

While he has the tools to be more of a well-rounded player down the line, Kenny Williams enters his freshman season primarily as a spot shooter. This isn't necessarily a negative, though, as the Virginia native has one of the purest strokes in the 2015 class. Look for the guard to help the team's outside shooting, something that was missing for much of last season.

Luke Maye, F

Like Williams, Luke Maye's best attribute is his shooting. The 6'8" forward is a classic stretch 4 who can draw defenders to the perimeter and open things up for teammates inside. Playing time might be tough to come by with four upperclassmen already in the rotation in the frontcourt, but Maye should be productive when he is on the floor.

Key Returners

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Marcus Paige, G, Sr.

After dealing with foot and ankle injuries all last season, Marcus Paige now has to overcome a broken hand that will sideline him for three to four weeks. When he does return, he should once again be the team's best player and floor leader. The point guard is a legitimate All-American candidate who scores, distributes and plays defense, and the Tar Heels will be counting the days until he is healthy.

Brice Johnson, F, Sr.

According to Sports-Reference.com, Brice Johnson finished last season with the best defensive rating and second-best offensive rating on the team behind only Paige. He is an excellent inside scorer who runs the floor well and knows how to finish offensively either on the fast break or with his back to the basket. Both skills will be important this season.

Justin Jackson, G, So.

Justin Jackson was a bit timid to start last season, but his talent shined over the last two months into the NCAA tournament. He is an offensive mismatch at 6'8" with great ball-handling ability, which allowed him to become a go-to option offensively. With more confidence heading into his sophomore year, the wing has a chance to be a star.

Kennedy Meeks, C, Jr.

After dropping almost 30 pounds from his freshman to sophomore seasons, Kennedy Meeks became a weapon in the post. He averaged 11.4 points and 7.3 rebounds per game using his strength to dominate opponents on both ends of the court. This should continue into his junior year.

Roster and Projected Rotation

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Starting Lineup

PG: Marcus Paige, Sr.

SG: Theo Pinson, So.

SF: Justin Jackson, So.

PF: Brice Johnson, Sr.

C: Kennedy Meeks, Jr.

Either Joel Berry or Nate Britt will likely fill in for Marcus Paige as he recovers from a hand injury, but this is the best lineup UNC will see later in the year.

With four returning starters from last season including two seniors, this group has as much game experience as almost any in the nation. This will be extremely useful in a sport that features so much turnaround at the highest level.

Key Reserves

Joel Berry (G), Nate Britt (G), Isaiah Hicks (F), Joel James (F), Kenny Williams (G), Luke Maye (F)

North Carolina's depth is its biggest strength this season. Berry and Britt were expected to take on bigger roles this season in the rotation anyway, which eases the loss of Paige for the first month. Even at full strength, these players could push Paige to the 2 and create an effective smaller lineup for Roy Williams.

In the frontcourt, Isaiah Hicks will be the first man off the bench as someone who could be a No. 1 option for many other teams. Johnson and Meeks will prevent him from starting, but he and Joel James have proved to be effective reserves and will be efficient performers for 15-20 minutes per game.

Biggest X-Factors

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Early Backcourt Play

The first challenge for the year will be replacing Marcus Paige while he recovers from a broken hand. Joel Berry, with his quickness and vision, appears to be the best option to take over at point guard. The former McDonald's All-American had a respectable 18.8 assist rate last season, per KenPom.com, and should be able to lead this fast-paced attack.

Meanwhile, replacing the departed J.P. Tokoto will also be a challenge. Theo Pinson had a quiet freshman year while dealing with his own injuries, but he has the tools necessary to take over as the defensive-minded, slashing guard the team needs.

Getting production from these two spots in the lineup will be vital from the start of the season.

Outside Shooting

Last year, Paige was often the only dependable outside shooter, finishing with more made three-pointers than anyone else on the team even attempted. If defenses were able to clog the inside and defend the post, it would slow down the Tar Heels' attack.

This season, more players will have to step up from beyond the arc. Berry, Nate Britt and Justin Jackson have all shown the ability to make shots but will have to be more consistent in games. The addition of Kenny Williams and Luke Maye could also help in this area.

Even with an elite frontcourt, the squad will need balance in order to succeed.

Championship-Level Defense?

KenPom.com listed North Carolina as the No. 10 most efficient offense in the nation last year but just the No. 51 defense. After losing a top on-ball defender such as Tokoto, things could potentially get even worse.

Brice Johnson and Kennedy Meeks do a solid job defending men in the post, although neither is a true shot-blocker who can make up for mistakes on the perimeter. It all comes down to the guards being able to stay with their mark and prevent easy shots on every possession.

Without full focus for all 40 minutes of a game, the Tar Heels could fall short of their goal of a national title.

Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios

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Best-Case Scenario

North Carolina has all the tools to live up to the No. 1 preseason ranking.

Brice Johnson, Kennedy Meeks and Isaiah Hicks dominate weaker opponents with their play in the frontcourt, controlling the glass and scoring at will. In tougher matchups, Marcus Paige and Justin Jackson take over offensively with their ability to create open looks in any situation. Theo Pinson and the rest of the bench fill their roles in small doses and make the Tar Heels the deepest and most complete team in the nation.

An early nonconference win over Maryland gives the team confidence, and that carries over into an ACC title. In the NCAA tournament, the consistent production leads to six straight wins and the school's first national championship since 2009.

Worst-Case Scenario

Marcus Paige is never quite 100 percent and fails to ever live up to his great sophomore season. Meanwhile, the sophomore class of Joel Berry, Pinson and Jackson all struggle to handle the increased pressure, and the backcourt is constantly outplayed.

The team's talent and depth still allow for numerous easy wins, but an inconsistent defense leads to a few unexpected losses in conference play. North Carolina finishes fourth in the conference behind Duke, Virginia and Notre Dame.

With a protected top-four seed and consistent inside scoring, the Tar Heels survive a few close calls in the first weekend of the NCAA tournament to reach the Sweet 16, but that is where the dream ends. An opponent with more size and hot shooting from the outside knocks out UNC while Brandon Ingram and Duke continue on for a second straight national title.

Justin Jackson and Kennedy Meeks declare for the NBA draft.

Prediction

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This could truly be a great college team, but it is not perfect.

At 100 percent, North Carolina has four All-Conference-level performers, one of which is a legitimate National Player of the Year candidate, as well as a rotation with as many as 11 players who can make real contributions on a nightly basis.

The loss of Marcus Paige will be felt early, however, and the absence of a glue guy such as J.P. Tokoto will last throughout the season.

UNC should be favored in most of its nonconference games, but losses to Maryland and Texas are entirely possible with a defense struggling to slow down elite point guards Melo Trimble and Isaiah Taylor. The ACC season is even tougher with Duke, Virginia, Notre Dame, Louisville, Miami and others all providing tough battles. The good news is this experienced roster won't lose any games it shouldn't, like at home against North Carolina State or at Pittsburgh like last season.

Despite a lot of competition at the top of the conference, North Carolina brings home both an ACC regular-season and tournament title.

The run continues into the NCAA tournament and all the way to the Final Four, the first for the school since 2009. Unfortunately, the dream of a sixth national title dies in the semifinals when UNC faces an efficient offense with enough size to defend the post.

UNC ends the year with a pair of conference titles, a Final Four berth and a 34-5 record.

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