NFL Week 9 Picks: Predictions for Vegas Odds Before Thursday Night
The Cincinnati Bengals will be the first of the four undefeated teams to put their unblemished record on the line in Week 9, as they face the Cleveland Browns on Thursday night in an AFC North battle.
The other three undefeated teams continue their charmed journeys on Sunday. Carolina has a tough task in the 6-1 Green Bay Packers. The Denver Broncos take on the dubious division-leading Indianapolis Colts, while New England hosts a Washington Redskins team that should prove little threat to its undefeated status.
Playoff races are starting to take shape, so the battles featuring the undefeated teams aren't necessarily the week's most intriguing contests. Scrapping for wild-card spots and supremacy in the divisions not lorded over by those with spotless records informs many of Week 9's contests.
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Six teams are on bye, so the lineup of games is a tad shorter than usual. Here's a look at the schedule, odds and some predictions for the Week 9 slate. Odds are courtesy of Odds Shark and updated as of Thursday, November 4 at 7 a.m. ET.
| Time (ET) | Away | Home | Over/Under | Prediction |
| 8:25 p.m. | Cleveland Browns | Cincinnati Bengals (-11.5) | 45.5 | CIN 31-21 CLE |
| 1 p.m. | Miami Dolphins | Buffalo Bills (-3) | 44 | BUF 23-20 MIA |
| 1 p.m. | Green Bay Packers (-2.5) | Carolina Panthers | 46.5 | GB 24-19 CAR |
| 1 p.m. | Jacksonville Jaguars | New York Jets | N/A | NYJ 22-17 JAX |
| 1 p.m. | St. Louis Rams | Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) | 39.5 | STL 27-21 MIN |
| 1 p.m. | Washington Redskins | New England Patriots (-14.5) | 52 | NE 34-14 WAS |
| 1 p.m. | Tennessee Titans | New Orleans Saints | N/A | NO 31-20 TEN |
| 1 p.m. | Oakland Raiders | Pittsburgh Steelers (-4) | 48 | OAK 24-23 PIT |
| 4:05 p.m. | New York Giants (-1) | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 48 | NYG 27-20 TB |
| 4:25 p.m. | Atlanta Falcons (-7.5) | San Francisco 49ers | 45 | ATL 28-13 SF |
| 4:25 p.m. | Denver Broncos (-5) | Indianapolis Colts | 45 | DEN 28-14 IND |
| 8:30 p.m. | Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) | Dallas Cowboys | 44.5 | PHI 31-27 DAL |
| 8:30 p.m. | Chicago Bears | San Diego Chargers (-4) | 49 | SD 24-20 CHI |
Matchups to Watch
Green Bay Packers vs. Carolina Panthers
Panthers quarterback Cam Newton has garnered some MVP talk over the past few weeks, leading his side to seven wins—as many as they had in the entire 2014 regular season—in seven games with clutch passing, hard running and his preternatural calmness.
This, despite box-score stats that more closely resemble the recently benched Colin Kaepernick's than his opposite quarterback in Week 9, Aaron Rodgers'.
Make no mistake, Newton is far superior to Kaepernick. NumberFire's J.J. Zachariason laid out the evidence for this in a fine post, noting Kaepernick's abject situational passing, Newton's uninspiring options at wide receiver and, of course, his exceptional rushing ability:
"And that doesn't even factor in rushing, where Newton has added more than four points over what Kaepernick has with his legs, something that's significant when you consider running the ball is far less effective compared to passing it. On a per rush basis, too, despite any yards per carry stat you may find, Newton is adding 0.04 points more with his legs with each tote versus Kaepernick. In 2015 running back terms, that's the difference between a healthy Le'Veon Bell and Carlos Hyde.
"
Newton doesn't have to blow out the scoreboard with gaudy passing stats to get the job done. He's done a fine job of finding tight end Greg Olsen to move the chains, can hand the ball off to Jonathan Stewart (505 rushing yards, three touchdowns) and rely on a defense led by linebacker Luke Kuechly and cornerback Josh Norman to stymie opponents.
Rodgers, by contrast, often appears to be dragging the Packers along on his own, though their defense is one of the league's better units as well. Eddie Lacy has been alternately banged up or ineffective, James Starks has only the occasional flare-up and the wide receiver corps has struggled with health issues dating all the way back to losing Jordy Nelson in the preseason. Green Bay tight end Richard Rodgers is no Olsen.
After putting up just 10 points against Denver's ludicrously good defense in Week 8, life doesn't get much easier for Rodgers in Week 9. According to Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) metric, the Panthers rank second in the league behind Denver.
Norman will look to shut down Randall Cobb for the second week in a row. Per Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz, Cobb had just 10 yards on five catches with the Broncos' Chris Harris Jr. sticking to him like glue.
Green Bay's own defense ranks eighth in DVOA but just allowed a surprisingly mediocre Peyton Manning his best game of the season in terms of yardage (340) and second best in completion percentage (72.8). Of course, Manning is throwing to Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. Newton doesn't quite have that luxury in wideouts Ted Ginn and Philly Brown.
Considering Rodgers has done such a fine job of taking care of the football and is liable to have something of a bounce-back game, the key for the Packers will be to create turnovers and capitalize on good field positions.
After taking a 23-6 fourth-quarter lead over Indianapolis in Week 8, the Panthers had two three-and-outs that set the Colts up in great field positions and allowed them to get back into the game and force overtime.
If Green Bay's defense, a much better unit than the Colts', can hold tough in crunch time and perhaps force Newton into a mistake or two, Rodgers should be able to pull out a win for the road side in this one.
St. Louis Rams vs. Minnesota Vikings
If you've grown a bit weary of so many NFL contests being defined by the two principal quarterbacks dueling, facing off, going head to head, etc., then this is the game for you.
St. Louis versus Minnesota is a contest worth watching for the two lead tailbacks involved. One represents the current ideal of a good lead running back, the Vikings' Adrian Peterson; the other is the potential future of the position, Todd Gurley.
After missing almost the entire 2014 season through suspension, Peterson has picked up pretty much where he left off. He's third in the league in rushing with 633 yards on 4.5 yards per carry and three touchdowns. As good as he looks, he apparently feels even better. According to ESPN's Ben Goessling, Peterson believes he can play in the league for another decade.
"If God's willing, I'll just be able to walk away from the game at the highest level whenever I decide," Peterson said.
Gurley has set the league aflame over the past month, rushing for at least 125 yards in his last four outings. Perhaps not coincidentally, the Rams are 3-1 in that time, and they've twice so thoroughly outplayed their opponents Gurley has been able to take a few series off at the end of the game.
USA Today's Mike Foss is calling him the best back in the league:
"All of the numbers would indicate the last four weeks have been special, sure. But use your eyes. Look at Gurley, look at the 11 players trying to stop him, and realize that no one can. In an era where running backs are as disposable as your razor, Gurley’s performance is something to be cherished and celebrated. Look no further than DeMarco Murray to see how fleeting one’s time at the top can be.
Gurley is six years Murray’s junior. He has a coach in Jeff Fisher who is planning an entire offense around him. There’s still plenty of time for Gurley to get better, which is the most absurd fact of them all.
"
While such lofty proclamations are premature, Gurley is nothing if not the most exciting back in the NFL, unless you live in the greater Atlanta area and are completely enamored with second-year back Devonta Freeman. Either way, he's someone to be cherished right now. A standout performance against a tough Vikings defense would probably lock up the Rookie of the Year award.
Both teams also feature emerging weapons at wide receiver. Rookie Stefon Diggs has given Teddy Bridgewater an explosive, athletic option in the passing game. Since making his debut on October 4 against Denver, Diggs has quickly racked up 25 catches for 419 yards and two touchdowns. Bleacher Report's NFL draft guru Matt Miller admitted he might've graded the Maryland product too harshly:
He didn't practice on Wednesday because of a hamstring injury, per Pro Football Talk's Mike Florio, so his availability for Week 9 could be in doubt. For the Rams, it's Tavon Austin, a wide receiver who can be seen occasionally lining up in the backfield and has a penchant for scoring delightfully unconventional touchdowns. Here he is dashing to the pylon on a jet sweep against San Francisco, via the NFL:
The big-play potential of Gurley, Austin and even tight end Jared Cook will give the Vikings plenty to worry about on Sunday. Rams coach Jeff Fisher should be able to move these pieces around and win a few rounds of gridiron chess against the Vikings. The Rams defense, which has allowed just 12 points in its last two outings, should have a better chance of shutting down Minnesota's attack.
Bridgewater still can't be counted upon to get the passing game to take flight each week—Sunday's win over Chicago marked his third game with under 200 passing yards this season—and is in danger of becoming overly dependent on Diggs.
Look for the Rams to punch a couple more drives into the end zone and take this one.
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills
New England is a virtual lock to win the AFC East, but that doesn't mean this division will lack for drama over the course of the latter half of the season.
With the AFC South a dumpster fire, the AFC West weak beyond the Broncos—though the Raiders might finally be on the arch of a long-awaited turnaround—and Pittsburgh proving to be Cincinnati's only credible threat in the AFC North, there's a decent chance one or both AFC wild cards will come from the East.
The winner of Sunday's contest between Miami and Buffalo will move to .500 and be in a fine position to challenge the New York Jets for second place in the division. Miami could really use this win, as it is 0-3 in divisional play, which includes the Bills trampling them 41-14 in Week 3.
The Bills are 1-3 since that game, having struggled with injuries and a pass rush that's been strangely tame despite an abundance of talent. As for Miami, they've stuffed beatdowns of Tennessee and Houston in between losses to the Jets and Patriots. It's been a wildly inconsistent season for the Fins, but Dan Campbell at least appears to be getting this team to play with some passion.
Buffalo has been the worse for wear as of late, but coach Rex Ryan has urged the team to keep the faith, relayed by the team's official Twitter account:
Tyrod Taylor is primed to return and has proved himself to be a fine starting quarterback this season, throwing nine touchdowns against four interceptions while making plays with his legs. He could see a boost from wide receiver Sammy Watkins, who was limited in practice on Wednesday, per the team's official site.
The Bills running back corps is also looking healthier, as this picture from the team's official Twitter account shows:
Miami's defense lost defensive end Cameron Wake for the season in Week 8. It will likely struggle to replace his pass-rushing abilities, which will free up time and space for Taylor to operate in. Strong outings from LeSean McCoy and Karlos Williams can further take a bite out of the pass rush.
On offense, the Dolphins will be dealing with a disconcerting trend from quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who has struggled in divisional road games. According to the Miami Herald's Adam H. Beasley, Tannehill is 3-7 for his career in AFC East road outings, with a 68.5 passer rating. Worse yet, Beasley noted he's been struggling with consistency in recent weeks:
"The No. 1 knock on Tannehilll has been his consistent lack of consistency. The past two weeks have crystalized that issue.
Four days after producing the most efficient game by a Dolphins quarterback in a home win over the Texans, he looked lost against the Patriots.
Last Thursday marked the third time this season he has had a passer rating under 65. His rating has been over 90 in the other four games.
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The improved running game and overall team spirit under Campbell will make this a closer contest than it was in Week 3, but a healthy Bills squad—one that hopefully won't be completely derailed or distracted by the absorbing, multi-faceted debate over whether a hot dog is a sandwich—will prove Miami is simply one of the better bad teams in the NFL this year.
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