Redskins vs. Patriots: What's the Game Plan for New England?

Through seven games, the New England Patriots have largely proved capable of dictating the style of play to their opponents. That's unlikely to change this week against a 3-4 Washington Redskins squad that, despite exhibiting flashes of breaking through, is largely limited and without significant upside.

Washington does get back its best receiver in DeSean Jackson, who should help space out the passing game for Kirk Cousins. He is among the league's more volatile quarterbacks, but as he's shown in games such as Washington's 24-point comeback against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers two weeks ago, he's capable of digging himself out of whatever holes he may create.

Nevertheless, New England shouldn't need to stray too far outside of its comfort zone this week, especially playing at Gillette Stadium. Examining this unfamiliar NFC East opponent, let's dissect how the Patriots might exploit Washington to remain unbeaten at the midway point of the regular season.

Offensive Game Plan

David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

There really isn't any mystery where the Patriots should go on offense this week. Rob Gronkowski has been Tom Brady's favorite target this season, and given the issues Washington has had against tight ends and defending the middle of the field in general, Sunday could turn into one of Gronk's signature games of 2015.

According to Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, Washington ranks 22nd in pass defense against opposing tight ends—a byproduct of the secondary's inexperience. Safety Dashon Goldson has been a better fit in D.C. than he was in Lovie Smith's Tampa 2 system last season, but the veteran has always struggled when needing to drop into the deep half. With first-time starter Trenton Robinson playing next to Goldson at free safety, miscommunications in pass coverage have been a significant issue for Washington.

Indeed, D.C. typically plays matchup zone defenses, which require route recognition and chemistry with other defenders, so that they can pass off receivers between zones without leaving gaping holes in the middle of the defense. However, Washington's linebackers and safeties have been quite inconsistent in this department, especially when offenses threaten the seams with vertical tight end routes:

Source: NFL Game Pass

Source: NFL Game Pass

Notice in both screenshots how multiple linebackers and defensive backs are playing with poor eye discipline and failing to drop deep enough to pick up tight ends Jacob Tamme (Screenshot 1) and Jordan Cameron (Screenshot 2). Washington figures to play lots of nickel defense against New England, as it likes to keep middle linebackers Perry Riley and Keenan Robinson on the field for all three downs. But neither is particularly agile when dropping into coverage, which could prove problematic when Gronkowski flies down the seams.

Play action (which the Atlanta Falcons used in the first screenshot) should be particularly effective for the Patriots. According to Pro Football Focus, Brady has posted a 109.2 quarterback rating on play-action passes, third-best in the league, but he has only utilized play fakes on 16.1 percent of his dropbacks, 24th in the league.

That low usage rate partly coincides with New England's brazen willingness to skew heavily toward the pass without any regard for attempting to fool the defense, but the Patriots should be able to remain relatively balanced against Washington. D.C. ranks 23rd in run defense DVOA, a mediocre ranking that stems from its vulnerability to long rushing plays. Only three teams have given up more runs of 10-plus yards than Washington has (27), which has been trending in the wrong direction in recent weeks:

Week	Opponent	10+ Runs Conceded
1	vs. Dolphins	3
2	vs. Rams	4
3	@ Giants	1
4	vs. Eagles	3
5	@ Falcons	5
6	@ Jets	7
7	vs. Buccaneers	4

Advanced metrics portray a similar story. FO tracks a stat called open field yards, which describes how often a running back reaches 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. It essentially measures explosive runs, and here, Washington is one of the worst teams in the league, ranking a dismal 29th in open field yards on defense.

With Washington's best defensive lineman, Jason Hatcher, injured, the Patriots could have one of their better rushing performances of the season Sunday. It's a pretty low bar to clear—only six teams have fewer double-digit yard runs than New England—but it might also provide a greater opportunity for LeGarrette Blount to spell Dion Lewis on early downs.

We're keeping things relatively brief here because the Patriots really don't need to stray outside their comfort zone to score points against Washington. Barring injuries or an unexpected cluster of turnovers, New England enjoys a plethora of matchup advantages all over the field. Josh McDaniels should be able to find his play-calling rhythm early and keep Washington's defense off balance for the duration of the contest.

Defensive Game Plan

Patrick Semansky/Associated Press

Washington looks like a statistically mediocre offense, ranking 21st in points per game and 17th in DVOA.  However, as the MMQB's Andy Benoit argued after Washington's 24-point come-from-behind victory over Tampa Bay two weeks ago, Jay Gruden has done a quietly strong job of scheming around the offense's personnel weaknesses and the limitations of Cousins:

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Given Cousins’ history of throwing interceptions when forced to press the ball downfield, or even when compelled to work the deep-intermediate levels, and given Washington’s lack of speed at wide receiver (DeSean Jackson sat a sixth straight game with a hamstring), there might be no NFL team less equipped to come from behind.

But remarkably, that’s precisely what Washington did. The rest of the afternoon belonged to the team’s embattled quarterback and its vastly underappreciated head coach, Jay Gruden.

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Benoit's article is well worth a read, as it illustrates the play-action staples and formation designs Gruden utilizes to maximize Cousins' strengths. For all the ostensible dysfunction Gruden created in his bizarre management of Robert Griffin III, his offensive play-calling and game-planning acumen have shone through in his first stint as a head coach.

With Jordan Reed healthy and DeSean Jackson primed to return, Washington's receiving corps will be at full strength for the first time since the opening quarter of Week 1. Bill Belichick has already stated his concern about the latter, one of the league's most established deep threats. During his first year in Washington, Jackson caught 52.2 percent of his targets thrown 20 or more yards down the field, the second-best deep-ball catch rate to only Dez Bryant in 2014, per PFF.

But Jackson possesses a limited tool kit, and playing bracket coverage with a disciplined deep safety (either Devin McCourty or Duron Harmon) seems like a simple and feasible course of action. Reed is a much trickier matchup, as his combination of size (6'2", 237 lbs) and receiver-like hands and speed should evoke memories of another tight end who used to roam the premises in Foxborough.

Watch out when Washington isolates Reed on the weak side of the formation, as the tight end loves to run slants from there, especially in the red zone. Both of his touchdowns against Tampa Bay came on slant routes from that iso formation, which affords him extra room to box out slower linebackers or smaller cornerbacks:

Source: NFL Game Pass

Source: NFL Game Pass

In considering how the Patriots might combat Washington's passing game, it's instructive to think back to the Week 6 game against the Indianapolis Colts. Among the teams New England has faced so far, the Colts are the closest approximation of Washington's offense: a heavy "11" personnel team (3 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB) that hits lots of deep in-breaking routes and boasts a small yet quick deep threat on the perimeter. 

Back then, the Pats used lots of two-high safety coverages, overlapping the deep outside routes while also having the underneath zone defenders hone in on the tight end in the middle of the field:

Source: NFL Game Pass

The Patriots should be able to play two-deep safety coverages once again, as Washington's run game is no real threat to punish lighter boxes. Washington averages just 3.7 yards per carry, 28th in the league, and has run for a woeful 2.2 yards per carry over its past three games, the worst mark in the league by a full half-yard.

Washington's best bet is to aim for the most variance possible, which would include lots of dropbacks for Cousins behind an aggressive play-calling strategy from Gruden. However, if New England plays with proper discipline in the secondary and zeroes in on some of Washington's pet staples (slants and play-action digs), the Pats should generate plenty of mistakes from the error-prone Cousins.

Key Players and Matchups

Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

Every week in this space, we'll list two offensive and two defensive players critical to the game plan who haven't necessarily received much attention in the sections above. Not all of these selections will necessarily be the most obvious choices, but each figures to play a key factor in New England's chances of victory.

Brandon LaFell

Despite his shaky, drop-marred debut, LaFell received a show of faith from the Patriots last week, as he resumed the clear No. 2 wide receiver role against the Dolphins. According to snap counts from ESPN.com's Mike Reiss, LaFell played 59 snaps against Miami, with Danny Amendola receiving just 34 (some of which came in junk time).

Washington's lack of cornerback depth has really hurt the defense this year, as D.C. ranks 30th in DVOA against No. 2 wide receivers. If LaFell gets one-on-one looks against someone such as Will Blackmon, expect Brady to look his way more frequently than he did during LaFell's first two games.

Dominique Easley

If this indeed turns out to be a sub-package-heavy game for the New England defense, expect Easley's snap count to rise significantly. The second-year pro has been more of a pure 3-technique this season, with most of the Patriots' defensive tackles being bigger-bodied run-stuffers.

If Easley plays on the interior weak side as expected, he should receive a fairly soft matchup against second-year left guard Spencer Long, who has started since the season-ending injury to opening day starter Shawn Lauvao. Easley possesses a big quickness edge over Long and center Kory Lichtensteiger and could provide the Patriots an important interior push on Sunday.

Cameron Fleming

With Marcus Cannon still not practicing, Fleming should be set to make his third consecutive start at right tackle. The second-year pro can't seem to catch a break—after lining up across from Muhammad Wilkerson and Cameron Wake in his first two starts, he is now set to face off against Ryan Kerrigan, easily the most talented player on the Washington defense.

Kerrigan is a versatile rusher who will stunt inside but also set up Fleming with an array of moves throughout the game. Watch for how Fleming sets in pass protection, as both Wake and Wilkerson were able to beat him with speed moves around the corner. Washington doesn't possess many advantages in this game, but Kerrigan vs. Fleming is certainly one of them.

Jamie Collins

The Patriots figure to utilize plenty of Patrick Chung on Reed in coverage, but Collins is also one of the league's few linebackers with the size and athleticism to keep up with the Washington tight end. Though Collins has been more effective blitzing than in pass coverage this season, the structure of Washington's offense probably calls for him to drop back more frequently than usual this week.

The Pats could also utilize a dime package with three safeties if they choose to rush Collins, though, so expect Belichick to vary his defensive personnel. It's an expectation now that Collins will make his mark all over the field, and Sunday should be no exception.

Prediction

Since 2001, the Patriots have been double-digit favorites 48 times and gone 43-5 straight up in those games, per Pro-Football-Reference.com. With the Patriots being 15-point favorites this week via Odds Shark, it is difficult to envision a scenario where they drop this game without some type of catastrophic injury occurring.

Washington should be able to challenge more areas of the field with its passing game than most offenses, even if Cousins is also likely to provide the Patriots as many big plays as he generates himself. If Washington can avoid turnovers and find Jackson, Reed and Pierre Garcon through the air, the Patriots might have a difficult time running away with this game.

Nevertheless, New England also possesses so many advantages across the board that it is difficult to even feign concern. Maybe the Patriots are peaking too early, and a more difficult upcoming month will test the staying power of this squad. For one more Sunday, however, the Patriots should roll and remain unbeaten.

Prediction: Patriots 43, Washington 21