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Burning Questions Ahead of the 2015-16 NCAA Basketball Season

Jason FranchukNov 5, 2015

If this picture of Coach Mike Krzyzewski doesn't get you excited for the start of college basketball season, nothing will.

Oh, you've seen a photo of Duke's boss burning before? Well, this one's from Oct. 30. Against Florida Southern. During a 44-point exhibition win. If his burn can start this early, after all he accomplished last year, we ought to be full flame right now, too.

And speaking of burn, we're here to examine the 10 burning questions that will get us jumping off our metaphorical benches.

Like, who you got for SEC newcomer of the year?

Or, which coach is going to vacate the premises first? And what's a great coach in a new spot, like Shaka Smart at Texas, going to do in his first season? We'll examine another Big 12 coach who will be on an even hotter seat right away.

The picture of Coach K really shows us one thing perfectly. It doesn't matter if you were the national champions last year. Of course, challenges will exist for the Blue Devils; they lost so much productivity. It's sad for college basketball fans that the window becomes so small sometimes to watch guys grow up.

But this is nothing new. What's new is everything else.

We know rosters and rotations will change with injuries, suspensions and confidence levels (up and down). There will be more bad news, guaranteed. Plus, we're still waiting on some key newcomers to receive NCAA clearance.

There will be upstarts and disappointments, flame-outs and Cinderellas. Dark horses and thoroughbreds and old-fashioned glue.

Let's please look forward without getting too far ahead of ourselves. The season is here.

Feel the burn.

Will 5 Seconds Make a Big Difference?

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The quick answer is no. Reducing the shot clock from 35 to 30 seconds is going to be as useful as if the NCAA changed the ball's color from orange-brown to whatever fluorescence Baylor decides to wear this season.

Sure, scoring will be up—more possessions and all—but it could still mean decreased efficiency.

What we will be curious to see: What will defenses do to create more helter-skelter situations late in the shot clock?

You can bet there will be a lot of "token" pressure defense before half court to forces teams to around 22 seconds to pick their first shot.

Ken Pomeroy wrote about the potential differences in March, as the NIT served as a Petri dish for experimentation. He calculated a 7 percent difference for overall scoring.

Iona coach Tim Cluess—whose fast-paced Gaels don't even need to invest in a shot clock—told Kevin Trahan of USA Today last March in the NIT, "I thought there were only three or four possessions where it had an effect in the entire game." He said that after his team's NIT loss to Rhode Island, which featured 80 possessions for each team.

What we're hopeful for: Some lousy possessions coaxed by good defense at one end of the floor could lead to fast breaks (and easy buckets) in transition.

What we're fearful of: enough bricks to—enter your own chimney/masonry joke here.

What we really wish: If an offense takes a shot that doesn't hit the rim, and the shot-clock buzzer goes off, the defensive team is given a chance to gain possession before play stops. That's better than letting a stalled-out team off the hook with time to set up.

Who You Got: Skal or Ben?

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It's deep in the heart of football season for the SEC. But two freshmen will have Kentucky and LSU fans—and really, the rest of the country—thinking about anything but playoffs (still said in our best Jim Mora voice).

The SEC will feature potentially the top two NBA draft picks next summer: LSU's Ben Simmons and Kentucky's Skal Labissiere.

The two big men have vaguely similar backgrounds: They're tall, high-upside foreign kids (Simmons is from Australia, while Labissiere hails from Haiti) who played some private-school ball in the U.S.

But their college experiences have been totally different so far. Simmons has been fully eligible and went with the Tigers back home during the summer for the program's once-every-four-years foreign exhibition tour.

Labissiere was just recently cleared. He'll obviously have the tougher task of keeping UK fans entertained and satisfied. The Wildcats have gone to four Final Fours in five seasons.

Simmons, meanwhile, can float under the radar a little bit (relatively speaking) while Leonard Fournette keeps getting the football for the Tigers. LSU made the NCAA tournament last year but lost two forwards to the NBA draft. That means plenty of time and shots, and he can basically play as he wishes in Johnny Jones' system (some cynics would argue Jones doesn't really have a system, but that's another slide for another day).

So who's going to have the better season? Well, it depends what you're looking for.

We're going with Labissiere, who will be on a much better overall team—even if his numbers don't rival Simmons'.

UK also has perimeter/slashing scorers Jamal Murray and Isaiah Briscoe.

Simmons will get his but won't go as far in March.

But this will be as exciting a year to follow the SEC as any in recent memory. New coaches abound (Rick Barnes at Tennessee, Ben Howland at Mississippi State, never-coached-before-in-college Avery Johnson at Alabama).

Young talent is rife.

And the race for NCAA bids should be prolific with Texas A&M and Vanderbilt, among others, at historical high points.

What Does Bo Know About His Future?

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That picture above is the look of a man whose tank is empty.

That's Bo Ryan, Wisconsin's venerable head coach, after losing to Duke in last year's NCAA title game. He doesn't look like he has another game in him.

It's no wonder he's shot here. The Badgers did the heaviest lifting of all, beating Kentucky in the national semifinals. Then they lost the title game to Duke despite having a second-half lead.

At one point there was open talk he'd retire at this season’s end. Then he stepped back from the retirement ledge and said he's "not totally sure."

It remains to be seen what Ryan is really thinking. We know he'll turn 68 during the season.

For the quintessential player-development coach—look at what Sam Dekker and especially Frank Kaminsky became—it becomes a potential question of energy and whether Ryan still relishes a slight rebuild.

The truth is last year will be tough to replicate anytime soon. That was a fun-loving team that had us talking about the age-old sciences of seduction (OK, flirting) and stenography.

Making the NCAA tournament would seem to be a success story. But is a new "era" of Badgers development enough to keep Ryan churning?

Our guess is, all things being equal—health, of course—he'll find the charms of these new-look Badgers to be strong enough to have him feeling like Mike Krzyzewski in that opening picture.

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Any Quitters Around?

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But he's in a no-win spot right now. Pitino skipped ACC media day, citing advice from Louisville's university-kept lawyers. That's neither outright success nor out-front leadership.

"I do not want the allegations we are facing to negatively impact the other 14 institutions on what should be a great event to talk about the approaching basketball season," Pitino said in a press release. "I realize that while many would like to question me on the allegations, the NCAA does not permit me to speak on the subject."

All of these charges stem from a tell-all book of recruits and sex, which isn't likely the first time those two words have been linked to college sports.

But either it's a cover-up or a brutal lack of awareness on Pitino's part. He can't come off looking good, no matter how nice he looks in those designer suits.

It's been a rough offseason for sideline legends, counting SMU's Larry Brown.

The Mustangs have already been put on a harsh probation that will keep a likely league favorite—and a potential deep run into March—out of the postseason.

We all know Brown could leave at any minute. He's done it before.

Our guess: Pitino will ride this out, but Brown won't make it until the end of the season, as bitter feelings get too tough to swallow with a lost season. Besides, SMU already has a next-in-line coach waiting (Tim Jankovich), who will be in charge while Brown serves his nine-game suspension. Brown could flee without leaving the program in total disarray.

It might be best to have a new voice after the NCAA has already done so much to snuff out Brown's.

Will Kansas Have a Final Four-Caliber Gear?

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Every season starts with buzzwords.

This year's college basketball season comes down to "NCAA clearance" for some.

Bleacher Report's Jason King has been all over the case of Purdue's recently cleared freshman, Caleb Swanigan. Others have also been cleared, including Siena's Javion Ogunyemi making the extremely rare decision to transfer back (after a brief stay at Boston).

We've seen Kentucky's Skal Labissiere finally get the green light from the NCAA.

And now that we've drawn this segment out, we'll get to the drawn-out case of Kansas freshman Cheick Diallo.

In April there was talk that Diallo's decision of colleges could alter the power structure of the 2015-16 season.

We're (still) waiting.

According to the Kansas City Star's Rustin Dodd, Jayhawks coach Bill Self told reporters recently he was hoping for a "definitive" answer on Diallo’s status before the Jayhawks’ regular-season opener against Northern Colorado on Nov. 13. Self didn't get any more informative news Nov. 5.

Diallo has been practicing while (we assume) NCAA eligibility officials have examined transcripts from his time at the relatively controversial New York private high school, Our Savior New American, which has had several Division I players go through there—and a host of others facing delays in college eligibility.

Diallo is the extra gear the Jayhawks desperately need. They need a rim protector and a fast transition-scoring big man, which is what Self has had in some of his best years with the likes of Thomas Robinson and the Morris twins. Jamari Traylor offers great energy but simply would be a heavy-minutes reliability.

Experience and development could still easily mean a Sweet 16 season with Diallo sewn to the bench. But anything more may be unrealistic, no matter how much the Jayhawks may continue to dominate the Big 12.

The guess: It's the NCAA, so who knows? But it's been an interesting offseason for Our Savior alumni. Diallo is the rubber match, so to speak, after Davon Dillard was deemed eligible for Oklahoma State and Kobie Eubanks was not for Alabama.

Is Maryland for Real Without Dez Wells?

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It used to be third place was a good thing for the Terps in the ACC. That's the historical case while playing in the large shadow of Duke and North Carolina.

But this year that will not fly in the Big Ten.

Wisconsin should be down. Michigan State should be close to the same. Michigan should be better, so long as it's healthier, but it's Maryland that is garnering so much hot-team talk.

This is the year to really fear the turtle.

That picture above is actually Melo Trimble after the season-ending loss in the NCAA tournament to West Virginia on the first Sunday. And if a freshman cares that much, you can only imagine what he'll do to rectify that pain as a sophomore.

Mark Turgeon's team is stacked. Trimble is a relentless rim attacker and priceless foul shooter. Jake Layman is the role player/glue guy that teams dream of having. If Rasheed Sulaimon can get his life back in order after a hasty dismissal from Duke, watch out. The recruiting scene looks quite good in College Park, too.

All that remains to be figured out is replacing Dez Wells. That is not a lightweight thing to consider.

The 6'5" Wells was a leader and a catalyst for other teammates to shine. He may have dominated possessions and shots, but he was also an assist man. And he shot better than 50 percent from the three-point line (though it wasn't a big part of his game).

Wells was a first-team Big Ten nominee by coaches, and Maryland loses his 15.1 points and 5.3 rebounds per game. The sad thing is, he is in the NBA Developmental League after getting cut by Oklahoma City.

The guess here: Maryland has a soft start to the schedule, but it'll hit some early December bumps with North Carolina and UConn on neutral courts.

Watch for it to take until February for Turgeon to figure out the identity of this team.

Will Shaka Smart Have Buyer's Remorse?

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Let's say that Shaka Smart really believed in the Texas athletic director who hired him. That it was the connection that convinced him to leave what he turned into a ready-for-prime-time job at VCU.

Well, Steve Patterson is no longer around.

So let's say that Smart assumed Patterson's time in Austin would end sooner rather than later. But he picked UT because of his pal, Charlie Strong, as the two were assistants at Florida in their respective sports at the same time.

Well, Strong isn't looking so (wait for it...) strong after a recent football drubbing from Iowa State.

So we're already starting to think—what was Smart thinking?

There might be a little truth that people overvalue the Texas job and undervalue Rick Barnes, who will get a fresh start—and presumably newfound appreciation—at Tennessee.

The Longhorns are just 35-35 all-time in the NCAA tournament. Folks, that isn't all Barnes' doing.

Yes, the Horns were ranked as high as No. 6 in the AP and coaches polls. And they finished sixth in the Big 12 (20-14 overall), which again gave voice to Barnes' detractors. But his teams missed just one NCAA tournament since 1999.

The above stat of the school's all-time record shows just how flimsy the argument is against Barnes. If anything, he exceeded expectations at a relatively thankless job.

Smart brings a defensive mindset, but his VCU numbers last year—at both ends of the floor—were similar to Barnes', per KenPom. Now Smart has an eroding athletic department to contend with, not to mention Kansas, Iowa State and a deeper, more talented league than he ever saw in the A-10.

Texas, which has four starters returning, was picked to finish fourth.

At least that's some familiarity, after VCU finished fourth in the A-10 last year. But otherwise, it could be a tough-haul year as he implements a new system in a place where fan expectations will be even more out of whack because of angst created by the football program's struggles.

Can Anyone Step Up to Take on Gonzaga or Kansas?

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From the double-edged sword department comes a comparison of Gonzaga and Kansas.

Both dominate conferences, but here's the difference: For Gonzaga, that's viewed as a detriment to the overall health of the West Coast Conference.

For the Jayhawks, it's considered a marvelous accomplishment.

Kansas is seeking its 12th consecutive Big 12 title. The road will include three mates ranked in the preseason Associated Press Top 25: Iowa State, Oklahoma and Baylor.

Gonzaga is a Top 10 team, like Kansas, along with the Cyclones and Sooners, but has no West Coast Conference contenders in rankings sight.

These teams will be most different in their postseason destinies.

Gonzaga's size and talent will be brutal to match on short notice. But it may struggle with BYU and an experienced, under-the-radar Pepperdine at least once apiece. Still, good money is on the Zags, who have won 14 of the last 15 West Coast regular-season titles (excluding 2012). That shouldn't change this year.

The Jayhawks have four starters back and more than enough depth to thrive in the Big 12. Making a deep run in March could be a different story, because of some size limitations (especially if freshman forward Cheick Diallo isn't eligible).

Is Steve Prohm Going to Be Some Sort of Mayor or Just a City Councilman?

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That big smile on Steve Prohm's face says it all.

He stepped into college basketball's big time, going from virtually unheard-of Murray State to Big 12 front-runner Iowa State.

But will that smile last as he takes on a daunting challenge of replacing a local legend?

Fred "The Mayor" Hoiberg was a local star who went on to play in Ames and then the NBA and returned (sans coaching experience) to resurrect Hilton Coliseum into a magical place—including four NCAA bids in five years. Hoiberg is in the NBA now.

That leaves the 41-year-old Prohm (only a year younger than Hoiberg, by the way) in for a major promotion after being at Murray State since 2006 (2011 as the head coach). He'll have a choice roster that features Big 12 Player of the Year candidate Georges Niang and nationally unheralded guard Monte Morris.

Can the switcheroo work? Style says yes. The Racers and Cyclones both shoot fast. Murray State had 6'2" sophomore Cameron Payne, who's now in the NBA, so Prohm can work with high-level talent.

Another question is how he will fare in an elite coaching league.

And yet another concern is defense. While Hoiberg's Cyclones weren't sticklers for guarding, last year's Murray team was considerably worse—100 spots, according to KenPom's defensive-efficiency ratings.

It's hard to say that a team has to make it to the Final Four to be a success. And that is the case with the Cyclones. But we'll learn about Prohm and his temperament—and the ongoing comparisons to Hoiberg—throughout the season.

Is Kris Dunn Bound to Be America's Favorite Player?

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We poke at the game, and for good reason sometimes.

We wish the talented young guys stayed longer. We wish the offense was better. We wish some great, older coaches weren't skirting rules (or claiming they just didn't know what was going on).

But if there's one thing to really love right now, it's the group of seniors out there.

And that starts with Providence's Kris Dunn. Technically, he's a redshirt junior. But the big thing is, he stuck around despite likely having a multimillion dollar payday coming his way last summer in the NBA draft.

He's faced more obstacles than the contestants on Most Extreme Elimination Challenge. (Look it up, kids.) A tough childhood. Injuries.

But last year he averaged 15.6 points, 7.5 assists and 5.5 rebounds and was a force at both ends of the floor. He had the top national assist rate and was Big East co-defensive player of the year.

He'll have to do more this year, because the Friars are relatively new.

But isn't that what we wish, that older players get their chance to shine?

Nothing against the young guys—there are some fabulous ones, too—but Dunn is among the cream of a memorable upperclassmen crop.

Michigan State's Denzel Valentine. Iowa State's Georges Niang. Gonzaga's Kyle Wiltjer. Buddy Hield from Oklahoma. Oh, and don't forget Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet from Wichita State. Or Marcus Paige of North Carolina.

And we hadn't even gotten to Caris LeVert from Michigan, whom we have to hope stays healthy like Dunn did last year.

Brogdon, Farrell, Collinsworth, Ellis. You probably know their first names already, which is cool. And the list could go on.

That's a good feeling to start the season.

🚨 Mitchell Headed to 1st Conference Finals

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