SEC Basketball: Preview and Predictions for 2015-16 Season
The Southeastern Conference remains, first and foremost, a football league. But thanks to a longtime power and several up-and-coming hopefuls, this season it has a shot to be a real player in college basketball beyond just one team.
Kentucky is the gold standard in the SEC and should be again in 2015-16, but in order for the conference to gain national prominence, it will need additional contributions. Besides the Wildcats, only one other team (Arkansas) won a game in last year's NCAA tournament, compared to in 2014 when all three qualifiers made the Sweet 16 and two reached the Final Four.
Check out our preview of the SEC for this season as we identify who could challenge Kentucky for the top spot and the players to watch.
Top Storylines
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New blood on the sidelines
Four of the SEC's 14 schools are under new leadership, and the coaches who have been added to the ranks bring with them some impressive credentials.
Ben Howland, hired by Mississippi State, led UCLA to three consecutive Final Fours from 2006-08. Rick Barnes, now at Tennessee, has 604 career wins including 402 in 17 seasons at Texas. And Mike White, who replaced longtime Florida coach Billy Donovan, led Louisiana Tech to at least a share of the Conference USA title in each of the previous three years.
And Avery Johnson, making his college coaching debut at Alabama, led the Dallas Mavericks to the NBA Finals in 2006.
Can anyone challenge Kentucky?
The Wildcats won last year's regular-season title by five games, and it didn't even seem that close. Then they bulldozed through a trio of opponents in the conference tournament by an average win margin of 18 points per game. And while Kentucky lost seven players from the team that nearly went unbeaten, it's the overwhelming favorite again as the unanimous choice of SEC media members.
So, do we just give the titles to Big Blue Nation now and just have everyone else play for second, or could there be an actual race?
Kentucky is ranked second in the preseason Associated Press poll, while Vanderbilt (18th) and LSU (22nd) also made the first rankings
Who makes the NCAA field?
We can pencil in Kentucky right now, barring a major collapse like with the 2012-13 team that was defending national champion yet ended up relegated to the NIT. Vanderbilt and LSU appear safe bets, too, but after that it's anyone's guess as to who else (if anyone) from the SEC will earn a spot in the 2016 NCAA tournament.
Bleacher Report's Kerry Miller has five SEC teams in his preseason NCAA tourney projections, with Florida and Texas A&M joining those listed above. He also has Georgia and South Carolina among a list of 13 other potential tourney candidates.
The Favorite
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Kentucky Wildcats
Since there had never been a team that had seven players declare early for the NBA draft in one season, there's no precedent for how such a team would fare the year after. But based on the success Kentucky has had under John Calipari, there's no reason to expect the completely overhauled Wildcats to not be the team to beat in the SEC.
The 2012 Kentucky team that won the national title lost five non-seniors to the draft and ended up missing out on the NCAA tourney. And while the 2013 version was an underachieving group, it was also severely affected by a midseason injury to Nerlens Noel.
If the Wildcats were to suffer a similar injury to one of their stars this season, things could change. But Calipari learned from that team, both in terms of recruiting and player usage, and thus a team with only two returning players who saw significant action—three if you include senior Alex Poythress, who was limited to eight games because of a knee injury—still got all of the first-place votes by the SEC media.
The Challengers
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LSU Tigers
A disappointing second-round departee last season, LSU lost its two best players in Jarell Martin and Jordan Mickey but brings back four guards who combined to average nearly 39 points per game. However, it's the Tigers' new additions that have them getting strong play as a contender in the SEC and beyond.
Australian Ben Simmons, a 6'10" forward, is the top overall prospect from the 2015 recruiting class (per 247Sports), while 6'4" guard Antonio Blakeney was also a highly sought-after player this offseason. LSU will also get 6'8" forward Craig Victor, a transfer from Arizona, at the end of the first semester.
Texas A&M Aggies
Billy Kennedy's 2014-15 team finished tied for third, performing ahead of schedule somewhat considering the strong recruiting class he had coming in for this season. That class, led by a trio of in-state frontcourt players, combines with the Aggies' top three scorers coming back to form a group that by the end of the regular season should be clicking on all cylinders.
A&M hasn't made the NCAA tournament since 2011, when it was in the Big 12, and its last conference title was in 1987 in the Southwest Conference.
Vanderbilt Commodores
A strong run in the NIT can often springboard a young team toward greater heights the following season, and that's what Vanderbilt is hoping will happen after it reached the quarterfinals of that tournament in March.
The Commodores return six of their top seven scorers, most notably junior Damian Jones. The 7'0", 245-pound junior is one of three 7-footers on the team along with 7'1" senior Luke Kornet and 7'0" senior Josh Henderson.
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The Bottom-Dwellers
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Alabama Crimson Tide
Avery Johnson has his hands full in his first season coaching at the college level, taking over a team that made the NIT last season but lost its top three players either to graduation or transfer. Things got worse in August when top recruit Kobie Eubanks, a 6'5" guard, wasn't cleared by the NCAA and was not admitted to the school.
The Crimson Tide last appeared in the NCAA tournament in 2012, their only bid in the last nine seasons.
Arkansas Razorbacks
The only SEC team other than Kentucky to make it out of the first weekend—or even to the weekend—of the NCAA tournament last season, Arkansas will have a very different look for Mike Anderson this time around. And it's not going to be a very good one, compared to the teams that won 49 games the past two seasons.
Because of graduation, early NBA departures, transfers and dismissals, the Razorbacks bring back very little experience. Four players who combined to start 45 games last year return, but three of them shot below 40 percent from the field.
Missouri Tigers
Kim Anderson inherited a bad situation last season when he replaced Frank Haith (now at Tulsa), and it actually got worse. The Tigers won nine games, the fewest since going 3-22 in 1966-67, and Anderson's two most promising players ended up transferring from the program.
What's left is a very young group but one that could pull an upset here or there if 6'8" sophomore Jakeenan Gant is able to live up to expectations after a tough first season.
Best Rivalry
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Florida-Kentucky
One of these teams has won the SEC regular-season title each of the past six seasons, as well as four of the last six conference tournaments. Between them they've won three national titles since 2006 while making seven appearances in the Final Four.
But beyond the banners they have hanging from their respective rafters, when they meet on the court it's often a championship-level battle.
Kentucky leads the all-time series, 97-37, but over the past decade it's been much closer. The Wildcats have only a 13-11 edge in that span, including all three last season, but Florida swept all three meetings in 2013-14. Those all came with Billy Donovan at Florida, but new coach Mike White figures to continue the rivalry and give John Calipari's team all it can handle.
Coaches Under the Most Pressure
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Mark Fox, Georgia
Fox is coming off his second NCAA tournament appearance in six seasons with the program, and three of the others resulted in sub-.500 records. Despite losing three of their top four scorers, the Bulldogs were picked to finish fifth in the league, which speaks as much to the improved depth of the SEC as it does to Fox's roster.
Being able to achieve the program's first consecutive NCAA tourney bids since 2001-02 would go a long way toward ensuring Fox as the long-term answer, especially with the state producing more top-level recruits of late.
Johnny Jones, LSU
The win total has gone up in each of Jones' three seasons since coming over from North Texas, but considering the talent he has brought to Baton Rouge, there's been expectation of greater year-over-year improvement. Last year saw both the potential his team had, via wins at Arkansas and West Virginia and a two-point home loss to unbeaten Kentucky, as well as the ability to underachieve such as with losses to three of the bottom four teams in the conference and a second-round NCAA tournament exit.
Doing the same this year won't fly, not with one of the top recruiting classes in the country and arguably the best freshman in the country in Ben Simmons.
Frank Martin, South Carolina
Martin led Kansas State to four NCAA tournaments in five seasons but he hasn't come close in his three years with the Gamecocks. Last year's 17-16 record was his best, and he returns four starters, leading to a projected seventh-place finish in the SEC.
South Carolina has a very manageable nonconference schedule, and the SEC slate is favorable in that Kentucky, LSU and Vanderbilt all come to Columbia with no return trips. Failing to be in contention for an NCAA tourney bid—the program's last was in 2004—late in the season might be grounds for making a change.
Mike White, Florida
White won 101 games in four seasons at Louisiana Tech, winning at least a share of the Conference USA regular-season title in each of the last three years. Yet all three of those teams slipped up in March and ended up going to the NIT, getting to the quarterfinals each time.
It's a big step up in competition from C-USA to the SEC, and White has the unenviable position of replacing a star in Billy Donovan. Donovan won two NCAA titles, made four Final Fours and claimed six regular-season SEC titles before leaving to coach in the NBA.
White won't be expected to match those accomplishments right away, but that won't make the job any easier.
Best Backcourt
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Kentucky Wildcats
The Wildcats lost three guards to the NBA draft yet somehow got better on the perimeter, the product of coach John Calipari's ability to recruit ball-handlers and shooters who want to be his next great backcourt pro.
Tyler Ulis is the lone holdover from last season, and the 5'9" sophomore figures to play an even bigger role this season because of his experience. But unlike last year, when Kentucky often went with three forwards, the addition of freshmen Isaiah Briscoe, Jamal Murray and Charles Matthews and junior college transfer Mychal Mulder will make this team far more guard-oriented.
"Two potential All-Americans here, an incoming McDonald's All-American, plus two other high-upside newcomers," CBS Sports' Sam Vecenie wrote.
Best Frontcourt
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Texas A&M Aggies
We could have gone with Kentucky by default based on the talent that the Wildcats bring in down low, but it's not as good as the ones who just left, so we're heading in a different direction and picking the Aggies. It's a bold choice, though, since the majority of the players who will be manning the paint this season are new to the program.
Center Tyler Davis and forwards D.J. Hogg and Elijah Thomas make up three-fourths of the Aggies' highly rated recruiting class. They'll team with senior swingman Jalen Jones, junior Tavario Miller and sophomore Tonny Trocha-Morelos to form a group that could help A&M make a push to match the teams that won at least two NCAA tourney games each year between 2006-10.
Freshmen to Watch
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Perry Dozier, G, South Carolina
The first McDonald's All-American to play for the Gamecocks since 2000, per John Whittle of 247Sports, the 6'6" Dozier is a legacy player who has had several family members (including his father, Perry Sr.) play basketball at the school.
Skal Labissiere, F, Kentucky
Born in Haiti but with several years of U.S. basketball under his belt, the 6'11" phenom will slide right into the large hole that Kentucky has up front after losing four big men to the NBA draft. Labissiere has already shown that he's a mix of some of those predecessors, with the all-around game of Willie Cauley-Stein and the athleticism of Karl-Anthony Towns.
Jamal Murray, G, Kentucky
A Canadian who reclassified from the 2016 recruiting group, Murray dazzled for his homeland during the Pan American Games and dominated Team USA in the process. At 6'4" he can play all three backcourt positions and will likely be the Wildcats' top perimeter scorer.
Malik Newman, G, Mississippi State
As if hiring Ben Howland wasn't enough, landing a player like Newman has instantly made Mississippi State a player after several lean years. The 6'3" in-state product could be the highest-scoring freshman in the country unless Howland decides to rein him in, which doesn't seem likely.
Ben Simmons, F, LSU
Already projected by NBADraft.net as the No. 1 pick in the 2016 draft, the 6'10" Australia native is a self-described "point-forward" who can bring the ball up the court as well as camp out in the paint and protect the rim. He has a chance to lead LSU in nearly every statistical category in what's sure to be just one season at the college level.
All-Conference Teams
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FIRST TEAM
Jamal Murray, G, Kentucky
A player so talented his home country (Canada) tried to find a way to get him onto its Olympic qualifying team despite him starting college classes. The 6'4" freshman is one of many great guards on Kentucky, but he'll be the one making the most explosive plays.
Stefan Moody, G, Ole Miss
The 5'10" senior was an all-SEC selection last season after averaging 16.6 points per game, the most of any returning player in the conference. He shoots 90 percent from the line and 35 percent from three-point range, so he can hurt you all over the court.
Skal Labissiere, F, Kentucky
The Wildcats won't have an endless supply of big men like a season ago, but Labissiere might be good enough to replace more than one of those guys. The 6'11" freshman will draw plenty of attention from defenses, and as long as he can handle double teams, he'll be a star.
Ben Simmons, F, LSU
Listed as a forward only because of his 6'10" frame, this freshman plans to contribute in every way imaginable for the Tigers. He's been heavily hyped for several years and now gets to show he's capable of taking LSU to the next level.
Damian Jones, C, Vanderbilt
A true center who will spend most of his time with his back to the basket, the 7'0" junior will be the focal point of a promising Commodores team that peaked down the stretch last season.
SECOND TEAM
Danuel House, G, Texas A&M
Tyler Ulis, G, Kentucky
Jalen Jones, G/F, Texas A&M
Dorian Finney-Smith, F, Florida
Alex Poythress, F, Kentucky
Regular-Season Standings
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- Kentucky
- Vanderbilt
- LSU
- Texas A&M
- Mississippi State
- Georgia
- South Carolina
- Florida
- Auburn
- Tennessee
- Ole Miss
- Alabama
- Missouri
- Arkansas
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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