ACC Basketball: Preview and Predictions for 2015-16 Season
If a traffic jam can ever be a good thing, here it is in the Atlantic Coast Conference.
There is a marked gap between the top and bottom, but the middle of the ACC may be as good—and as evenly matched—as it's ever been, and it should have plenty of representation when the spring thaw begins and basketball fans start blowing bubbles.
Blood doesn't come much bluer than it does at the top of the ACC, where North Carolina and defending national champion Duke have roamed for decades. Heading into 2015-2016, these familiar programs are considered two of the best in the country. There are plenty of other ACC teams on the radar, however, even if this doesn't look like the year when anyone will crack the blue ceiling. Virginia, Notre Dame and Florida State are among those hoping for a deep spring run.
At the other end of the spectrum, you have several programs in disarray, slouching through rebuilding years, coaching troubles and off-the-court issues.
To illustrate how tough the conference is right now, despite sending six teams to the tournament last season, seven of the ACC's 15 teams finished with losing conference records. The latter mark is the highest in the expansion era that began with the additions of Virginia Tech and Miami 12 years ago.
How will it play out this season? We shall soon see for certain. In the meantime, here's a look at what to watch for, good, bad and otherwise, as the curtain prepares to rise.
Top Storylines
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Can North Carolina meet the hype?
The Heels need to be on their "toes" this season, if you catch my drift. They topped the AP preseason poll, owing to the fact that they return four starters and nine of their top 10 scorers from last season's squad.
At the vanguard once again is point guard Marcus Paige. Can he bounce back from an injury-riddled junior campaign? It's not looking good right now, as he will start the season on the bench with a broken hand. In some ways, he embodies the entire program, which is hoping to come back from mediocrity and non-basketball problems.
Guys like Justin Jackson and Brice Johnson are also key. But the team is deep and it is balanced. How will they perform under the bright lights that seem sure to burn down at them for the duration of the season? That, as the old folks like to say, is the question.
How many teams will go dancing?
With no fewer than eight teams ranked or receiving votes in the major preseason polls and three (North Carolina, Duke and Virginia) in the top 10, it's clear the ACC is the top conference in college basketball. Will they capitalize on the preseason momentum? Who will be cannibalized in conference play? Buckle up.
Can Rick Pitino keep it together?
The Louisville basketball scandal isn't going away, and it's enshrouding the program in darkness, like stratus clouds hanging low over the Kentucky bluegrass, or some such.
The Cardinals are favored to return to the dance, although they lost some top performers. Is this distraction going to help them overachieve? Probably not. A slow start could quickly crank the heat up on the coaching legend and the equally venerable program he helms.
Syracuse on the rebound
Last season, the Orange finished 18-13 and smack in the middle of the conference. In February—right around the time it became apparent the team wasn't going to reach the big tournament—the program decided to impose a postseason ban on itself because of various NCAA infractions. Now that's courage!
The penance continues this season. Thanks to a suspension (this time from the NCAA), coach Jim Boeheim will watch the first nine conference games on TV.
Regardless of your feelings on all this, Boeheim is beloved and has an admirable track record as a coach. He has said he'll retire in three years, so this is the home stretch. College basketball is a little more fun when Syracuse is relevant. We'll see if they can make something happen.
What about Duke?
You may have thought the defending champs would have at least a slightly lesser year after losing four of their top players to the pros. That's crazy, bro; there are no down years in Durham. All they did was pull in the second-best recruiting class of 2015, according to 247Sports.com, led by point guard Derryck Thornton and mind-bending athlete du jour Brandon Ingram. And never turn your back on the head devil, He Whose Name Cannot Be Spelled. It's all lining up, once again, for the Devils.
The Favorites
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North Carolina
It has to be disheartening for fans that Paige got hurt before the first tip. Not what anyone in Chapel Hill was looking for. Still, the Heels and their combination of new and returning talent means they're deep and queued up for an even deeper run into spring.
Duke
Alongside Kentucky and Kansas, Duke is the third leg of the Axis of Evil, college basketball edition. They are made of Death Stars. The superfrosh Ingram and company are just the newest troopers. Buckle up for what could be a repeat performance for Coach K and his band of soldiers. You've been warned.
Virginia
Of the three favorites, UVA's blood is the least blue, at least from a basketball standpoint. Nevertheless, they've earned their spot here and don't appear ready to relinquish it. Tony Bennett is one of the best coaches in this or any other conference, and their team-based brand of ball (especially on defense) inoculates them against player departures, like that of last season's top performer, Justin Anderson. Malcolm Brogdon and forward Anthony Gill should key the Cavaliers' attack.
The Challengers
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Notre Dame
Last season was special in South Bend. They're not a lock to return to the Elite Eight without Jerian Grant and Pat Connaughton, but there are still plenty of ingredients in the cupboard, including guards Demetrius Jackson and Steve Vasturia and power forwards Zach Auguste and Bonzie Colson.
Head coach Mike Brey thinks this group can continue last season's high-octane style.
"I think the fallback of our program has been the offensive efficiency," Brey told Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports. "That's been our hallmark. I still think we can be efficient, you know, high assists and low turnovers, knowing when and when not to take a shot."
Louisville
After six players left the fold, Pitino and company found a somewhat novel way to replenish their roster: graduate transfers. Guard Trey Lewis (Cleveland State) and forward Damion Lee (Drexel) both earned their diplomas but have one more season of eligibility remaining. The experiment will need to pay off for all parties if the Cardinals are to contend.
Florida State
According to 247Sports, the Seminoles gathered in the nation's No. 8 recruiting class for this season. Five-star crown jewel Dwayne Bacon will be joined by fellow guards Malik Beasley and Terance Mann and center Christ Koumadje. The young guns will join a hard-nosed group led by guard Xavier Rathan-Mayes.
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The Bottom Feeders
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Wake Forest
It's year two for Danny Manning. The first year ended with a 13-19 record, which was fueled by a 42 percent team field-goal shooting clip (good for 249th in the NCAA) and a god-awful 72 points allowed per game (that ranked 307th). Do-it-all guard Codi Miller-McIntyre is back for his senior season, and recruits Doral Moore and Bryant Crawford are in the fold. Sometimes, great players have a hard time instilling their greatness in others as coaches. Can Manning buck that trend? If so, it may have to start with instilling fundamentals.
Virginia Tech
Another second-year coach, Buzz Williams, will try to move his team past an ignominious first season. Williams has yet to win a road game as the head Hokie. I'm no Hubie Brown, yet even I can tell that that's not good.
Maryland transfer Seth Allen will form a solid backcourt with sophomore Justin Bibbs. But their real problems lie closer to the basket. As Norm Wood of the Daily Press points out, "no major-conference team last season had more trouble rebounding (minus-6.4 margin per game, 337th out of 345 Division I teams). ... [And] it's not immediately clear if the Hokies' rebounding will improve."
Boston College
Let's complete the trifecta of second-year coaches in a deep rebuilding process with Jim Christian and your Boston College Eagles.
The good news? Center Dennis Clifford, a rare bright spot last season, is back. The bad news? There were four BC players who scored more per game than Clifford in 2014-15, and all four of those guys are gone. And that team was No. 213 in the nation in scoring with 66 points per game on average. Oof.
Best Rivalry
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Duke-North Carolina
Easiest slide I've ever written.
If this feels a little too easy, just remember the players who have come through this rivalry, from Michael Jordan to Grant Hill all the way to the present. It's humbling is what it is.
Carolina leads the overall series, which began in 1920, 133-107. The Blue Devils have a serious edge in recent matchups, though, winning seven of the last 10 meetings.
These two face off in Chapel Hill on Feb. 17 and in Durham on March 5 to close the regular season for both squads. It's entirely possible that the best rivalry in college basketball will renew with the competitors running 1-2 in not only the ACC but the entire nation.
Coaches Under the Most Pressure
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Brian Gregory, Georgia Tech
Gregory easily stands atop this particular hill of beans. During his four seasons as lead Yellow Jacket, he's a not-outstanding 55-71. Do you know how hard it is for a power-conference basketball team to amass a losing record? With all those cupcakes? But Georgia Tech is doing it. He has never won more than 16 games in a single season. No higher than a ninth-place conference finish. No NCAA tournament appearances. One ACC tournament win. Jumping jellyfish! That is bad.
This season, he gets an experience boost from transfers Adam Smith, Nick Jacobs and James White. But it's still not looking good. At some point, you have to admit you're just not up to a given challenge. This season will determine that, one way or another, for Gregory.
Leonard Hamilton, Florida State
Hamilton is a good college coach. At the same time, in the cold light of the proverbial morning, we all know college hoops is a postseason-driven enterprise, perhaps more so than any other sport. If you're a high-profile program, you have to feed that beast. Regular-season success is simply not enough.
So Hamilton's 3-4 record in the NCAA tournament during his 13 seasons in Tallahassee overshadows his respectable 253-173 overall mark. If Hamilton can't make it work this year with his returning talent and that elite recruiting class, it could mean problems.
Rick Pitino, Louisville
As mentioned, Pitino is mired in scandal, and a slow start on the court could carry consequences, especially with some Louisville faculty members and others already calling for his head.
Pitino wrote recently in a letter to fans that, "Someday I will walk away in celebration of many memorable years but that time is not now." A strong campaign on the court would help him stay true to his word.
Brad Brownell, Clemson
It has been four seasons since the Tigers' last tournament appearance. Brownell's only bid as Clemson's coach came in his rookie campaign, with another regime's players. Brownell signed a six-year deal in 2014, but it's amazing how creative people can get when push comes to shove.
Best Backcourt
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Miami Hurricanes
Miami lived on the bubble for much of last season. So it probably won't be too difficult to switch over the cable bill and find a nice greengrocer when the team lands there for another extended stay this season.
Good on the Canes for reaching the NIT final last year, but everyone knows that's not how they wanted it to work out. If it's going to change this season, it will be because of Angel Rodriguez and Sheldon McClellan, the point guard and shooting guard, respectively, who combined last year for 26.4 points and 5.8 assists per game to finish Nos. 1 and 2 on the team in each category. Although this distinction could have gone to Paige, Jackson and North Carolina, I think experience and consistency tips this Miami's way. Plus, what did your mama tell you about variety being the spice of life? It's an important lesson.
In any case, McClellan and Rodriguez are both fifth-year seniors now and appear ready to lead the team again under coach Jim Larranaga. Remember: This team beat Duke last season, and they seemed like a tournament lock until they swooned down the stretch. A shaky front court probably means another nail-biter of a season, but it should be a good year with these two veterans at the forefront.
Best Frontcourt
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North Carolina Tar Heels
OK, no ambiguity here. North Carolina is absolutely stacked down low. It's one of the most formidable frontcourts in the entire country.
Brice Johnson (6'9") and Kennedy Meeks (6'10") anchor the contingent, with Joel James (6'11") and Isaiah Hicks (6'9") rounding things out.
None of these guys is Jahlil Okafor, but what they lack in transcendent talent they make up for in sheer volume, especially when you consider that the 6'8" Jackson and 6'6" Theo Pinson will probably spend time in the paint as well.
The best part is the way they blend with Carolina's signature brand of basketball. Every Tar Heel big can get up and down the floor, perfect for the team's turbo-charged attack.
Freshmen to Watch
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Brandon Ingram, F, Duke
Ingram is the gem of the new Blue Devils crop and one of the most prized recruits in his class. The phrase "jump out of the gym" was invented for guys like Ingram. Expect plenty of highlights from this phenom over the next several months. He's probably a lottery pick next June.
Derryck Thornton, PG, Duke
Ingram grabs all the headlines, but Thornton might be the Devils' most important addition, sliding in to replace one Tyus Jones as the floor leader in Durham.
Chase Jeter, F, Duke
Jeter rounds out the Big Three in this Duke recruiting class. The 6'10" post man will be a large complement to Amile Jefferson and Marshall Plumlee down low.
Dwayne Bacon, G, Florida State
Bacon will add instant offense to a Seminoles team that struggled a bit on that front last season. He'll make a potent tandem alongside Xavier Rathan-Mayes.
Damon Wilson, G, Pittsburgh
Wilson may be buried behind James Robinson on the depth chart for now, but the southpaw is a smooth player with a great handle and even better passing. He's a good addition for the Panthers.
Maverick Rowen, F, NC State
Regardless of whether he starts for the Wolfpack, Rowen will bring offense and versatility to a team in need of both.
All-Conference Teams
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FIRST TEAM
Marcus Paige, G, North Carolina
Here's guessing Paige gets right, and when he does, he'll be the lead dog on the lead team.
Malcolm Brogdon, G, Virginia
Brogdon does a little bit of everything. Offense, defense, scoring, facilitating, short-range, long-range and leadership. This will be another great season for the Wahoos, and Brogdon will be the man in Charlottesville.
Demetrius Jackson, G, Notre Dame
This is Jackson's team. He's an unselfish player who always seems to make the right decision. He's not an insane athlete, but that's not a big deal when you can score, distribute and lead the way Jackson does.
Brice Johnson, F, North Carolina
Johnson was second on the Tar Heels in scoring and rebounding last year, and that should hold true again this year as the team makes its run.
Zach Auguste, F, Notre Dame
Auguste will be the thunder to Jackson's lightning, and he should improve on his already-solid scoring (12.9) and rebounding (6.5) averages from last season.
SECOND TEAM
Xavier Rathan-Mayes, G, Florida State
Sheldon McClellan, G, Miami
Codi Miller-McIntyre, G, Wake Forest
Justin Jackson, F, North Carolina
Brandon Ingram, F, Duke
Regular-Season Standings
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- North Carolina
- Duke
- Virginia
- Notre Dame
- Louisville
- Miami
- Florida State
- Syracuse
- N.C. State
- Pittsburgh
- Wake Forest
- Clemson
- Virginia Tech
- Georgia Tech
- Boston College
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