Breakout College Basketball Players to Watch in the 2015-16 Season

The formula to become a breakout player in college basketball is pretty simple: Have obvious talent and more opportunity than the previous season.

This list, more so than in past years, has several guys who could have been considered disappointments so far in their young college careers because their production didn't meet the expectations they had coming in for varying reasons. Some guys take longer to adjust to the college game or just didn't have the right circumstances initially and, in most cases, legitimately talented guys succeed. 

There are also a few players who make the list this year who were solid performers last season but with the potential to be high-impact guys if/when their roles increased. 

The qualifiers that I've used in the past to help identify breakout candidates were as follows: 

1. Had to take at least 20 percent of his team's shots when he was on the floor. 
2. Double-digit scorers from this past season are not eligible.
3. Has to be room for that player to evolve into a bigger role.

This year I made two exceptions on shot percentage because each guy passes the other two qualifiers with flying colors. 

Note: All usage rate statistics were pulled from kenpom.com.

10. Devin Robinson, Florida

Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

2014-15 Stats: 6.4 PPG, 2.8 PG, 19.0 MPG

Usage rates: 20.8 percent of possessions/23.3 shot percentage

Devin Robinson was a top-20 recruit (ranked 17th by 247Sports), so his freshman season at Florida was a humbling experience. More was expected out of both Robinson and the Gators, who went just 16-17.

The path has been cleared for Robinson to play a bigger role for the Gators as a sophomore. The Gators lost two perimeter players who saw more minutes last season in Michael Frazier (left for NBA) and Eli Carter (transferred to Boston College).

Robinson could also benefit from the increase in tempo that Michael White will bring. The Gators ranked 277th in adjusted tempo last year under Billy Donovan, and White's teams at Louisiana Tech all ranked in the top 100—topping out at 18th in 2013-14, per kenpom.com.

His athleticism and length should be a good fit in White's pressing defense. That combined with the motivation of a mediocre freshman season could lead to a much improved version of Robinson as a sophomore.

9. Isaac Copeland, Georgetown

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2014-15 Stats: 6.8 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 20.0 MPG

Usage rates: 18.6 percent of possessions/21.3 shot percentage

Isaac Copeland quietly had a nice finish to his freshman season. Copeland started the final 10 games of the season and averaged 8.9 points per game over that time. Those aren't exactly breakout numbers, but he showed he could produce when given the minutes.

The last two Hoyas to turn into stars, Otto Porter and D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera, both had breakout seasons as sophomores. Smith-Rivera is still around, so Copeland could have to wait a year to take over a true "starring" role, but there are more shots available in Georgetown's offense with both Joshua Smith and Jabril Trawick, last season's second- and third-leading scorers, graduating.

Copeland has some competition to be Smith-Rivera's main sidekick in fellow sophomore L.J. Peak. Peak averaged more points last year (7.9 to 6.8), but Copeland had the better shooting numbers and played 5.3 less minutes per game. He's also a tougher matchup for opponents as an athletic stretch 4 who can bury threes.

8. Bonzie Colson, Notre Dame

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2014-15 Stats: 5.6 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 12.1 MPG

Usage rates: 21.8 percent of possessions/21.6 shot percentage

The graduation of Pat Connaughton opens things up for the Irish at the 4 spot. Mike Brey still has the means to play small ball, which worked quite well last season, but it's going to be hard to keep Bonzie Colson off the floor.

Colson is undersized at 6'5" but he's more of a traditional post player. He was extremely successful in limited minutes last season spotting Zach Auguste at the 5, and Brey will have to do some tinkering to play both of them together. They are different enough to make it work. Auguste is a terrific pick-and-roll guy, and Colson offers more of a back-to-the-basket presence.

Colson has a history of putting up better numbers than anyone would expect. He made 62.5 percent of his twos as a freshman and got to the line frequently, which made him an efficient scorer. He had the highest offensive rating (126.1) of anyone in Notre Dame's rotation.

Two years ago during the Nike EYBL circuit, he led the EYBL in offensive efficiency, yet he wasn't ranked in the top 100 players in his class by ESPN, Rivals, Scout or 247Sports. By the end of his career, he could make every service want a do-over.

7. Andrew White, Nebraska

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2013-14 Stats (at Kansas): 2.4 PPG, 1.2 RPG, 6.3 MPG

Usage rates: 19.2 percent of possessions/21.9 shot percentage

Andrew White never really got a chance to show what he could be at Kansas. He played on two teams that were stacked on the wing. His sophomore season he was expected to be the first perimeter player off the bench, then an early-season hip surgery set him back. His defense also probably kept him off the floor.

At Nebraska, he'll no longer be just a fringe rotation guy. He's one of the most talented guys on the roster. White has a beautiful stroke and the Huskers are in desperate need for some some shooting. They shot 28.4 percent from deep last year.

White will likely take the place of Terran Petteway, who left early for the NBA after averaging 18.2 points in 35.0 minutes per game last season. White is not as good off the dribble as Petteway, but he's a better shooter.

Don't expect White to shoot as often or put up the same kind of numbers as Petteway. Petteway took nearly one-third of the shots when he was on the floor. But White has the ability to be a double-digit scorer at a major-conference level. Now he finally has the opportunity to prove it.

6. Johnathan Motley, Baylor

Justin Hayworth/Associated Press

2014-15 Stats: 7.7 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 1.4 BPG, 21.5 MPG

Usage rates: 23.9 percent of possessions/24.5 shot percentage

Based on what Johnathan Motley did over the first few months of the season last year, it was a surprise to see that his overall numbers didn't end up better than they were.

Motley had a five-game stretch when he put up 22 points, 16 points, 19 points, seven points and 24 points, the final game of that stretch in the Big 12 opener at Oklahoma. After that, it seemed that Motley either hit a wall or just wasn't as good against legit competition. He averaged only 5.6 points per game the rest of the season.

It was also around that time that Rico Gathers blew up. Gathers was a double-digit scorer, but Motley is the more talented interior scorer on Baylor's roster. He simply got outworked by one of the hardest workers in college basketball.

With Royce O'Neale graduating, it's likely that Taurean Prince should see more time at the 3 and less as a stretch 4. That should create more minutes for Motley to play alongside Gathers. Those three are Baylor's most talented players, so it makes sense for Scott Drew to get them on the floor together.

With more minutes, touches and seasoning for the redshirt sophomore, it's easy to foresee Motley becoming a consistent double-digit scorer.

5. Svi Mykhailiuk, Kansas

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

2014-15 stats: 2.8 PPG, 1.2 RPG, 0.7 APG, 11.2 MPG

Usage rates: 16.8 percent of possessions/21.4 shot percentage

Svi Mykhailiuk was a forgotten man at Kansas last season. He recorded 10 DNPs—all from January on—and he scored two baskets over the final two months of the season.

Now it's important to provide some context. Mykhailiuk was a 17-year-old from Ukraine spending his first year in America. So it's no surprise that anytime he got in a game, he looked nervous and rushed.

But Mykhailiuk has ability. That much was obvious by the fact that he started six games and was ahead of Kelly Oubre on the depth chart over the first month of the season. He was also a guy NBA scouts were paying attention to when they rolled through Lawrence.

The guy is a 6'8" wing who can shoot the three, handle the ball and create for teammates. In fact, Bill Self says he's one of the best passers on the team.

With Oubre gone, the minutes and shots should be there for Mykhailiuk to become a regular. He might not become a star or even a starter—Devonte' Graham is the favorite for the third perimeter spot in the starting lineup—but if Mykhailiuk plays with confidence, he's too talented not to make a impact and that could be all it takes to shoot up draft boards. He's one of the more iffy guys on this list, but his ceiling is probably the highest.

4. Reid Travis, Stanford

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

2014-15 stats: 6.2 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 23.1 MPG

Usage rates: 17.2 percent of possessions/15.3 shot percentage

The numbers from his freshman year don't suggest that Reid Travis projects as a go-to guy, but Stanford's offense is a unique case. The Cardinal run a triangle, and the three parts of that triangle the offense usually went through last season were seniors Chasson Randle (the school's all-time leading scorer), Anthony Brown (the 34th pick in the 2015 NBA draft) and big man Stefan Nastic.

Next in line now that those three are gone are Rosco Allen, Marcus Allen and Travis. Travis has the skill set both inside and out to play a role similar to former Stanford forward Dwight Powell, who averaged 14.0 points per game two years ago in the same offense.

It's also worth looking outside of what happened last year when it comes to Travis. He was a McDonald's All-American who played on the same Nike team as former Duke guard Tyus Jones. And it was Travis, not Jones, who took a higher percentage of the shots on that team.

Travis also emerged as the go-to guy on Stanford's trip to Italy this summer. In four games in Italy, Travis averaged 18.0 points per game. It's not much of a leap of faith to expect his usage numbers will go way up this season.

3. Malik Pope, San Diego State

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2014-15 Stats: 5.1 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 14.8 MPG

Usage rates: 19.6 percent of possessions/20.4 shot percentage

It's a testament to how much potential Malik Pope has that a guy who averaged 5.1 points per game as a freshman had a decision to make about going pro or staying in school. Pope would have been drafted—possibly in the first round—had he declared, because he's a long 6'10", can handle the ball like a guard and made 41.6 percent of his threes as a freshman. His kind doesn't exactly grow on trees.

Why Pope didn't get a ton of minutes as a freshman had a lot to do with the fact that he broke his leg in both his junior and senior years of high school. When he did get his minutes, he produced. Pope averaged 10.7 points in the seven games he played at least 20 minutes, scoring in double figures in three of those contests.

Pope should not only see his minutes go way up now that he's had time to heal, he could emerge as San Diego State's go-to guy. There's certainly the opportunity for a skilled scorer to take on that role, as the Aztecs are extremely gifted defensively but challenged on the offensive end.

Leading returning scorer Winston Shepard, for instance, isn't really a natural scorer. Pope has the skill set to be that guy. It's just about gaining the confidence and staying healthy.

2. Grayson Allen, Duke

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

2014-15 Stats: 4.4 PPG, 9.2 MPG

Usage rates: 22.0 percent of possessions/23.6 shot percentage

Grayson Allen played himself onto every single "breakout players" list with his performance in the national championship game (16 points in 21 minutes). The expectations that he created in that game might not be fair—he was a role guy whose Wisconsin's D wasn't focused on—but it was certainly proof he's got game.

Things will be much different this year at Duke. Allen is likely to be either the 1A or 1B option in the offense depending on how ready incoming freshman wing Brandon Ingram is to carry the load.

The Duke guards will also not have the luxury of space that was created by the constant double-teams sent Jahlil Okafor's way. Allen is good spot-up shooter and really good at attacking closeouts, so he paired well with Okafor. It's going to be a challenge for Allen with the defense more focused on him.

But it's not like Allen doesn't have the ability to handle such challenges and he's still going to be surrounded by pretty good talent. The question is just whether he'll be a breakout star or a breakout player.

1. Bronson Koenig, Wisconsin

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

2014-15 Stats: 8.7 PPG, 2.5 APG, 1.8 SPG

Usage rates: 17.1 percent of possessions/18.4 shot percentage

An exception was made for Bronson Koenig to be included on this list. He didn't take a high enough percentage of Wisconsin's shots to qualify, but there weren't really many shots available playing alongside the likes of Frank Kaminsky, Sam Dekker and Nigel Hayes.

This season is a much different looking picture. Wisconsin's talent level is nowhere close to what it was a season ago. The Badgers lost five of their seven leading scorers, and Hayes and Koenig are the only returners who were regulars in the rotation. So the opportunity is there for Koenig. But this just isn't a case of "somebody's got to take the shots." The ability to be a star is also present.

Koenig is a wizard off the dribble. He almost has a little Steph Curry in his game with the way he's able to shake people and then pull up off the bounce. His ability to score off the dribble is obvious from this stat from last season: He made 53 two-point jumpers, according to Hoop-Math.com, and only two of those buckets were assisted. 

Wisconsin's swing offense isn't exactly known for isolation plays on the perimeter, but Bo Ryan has given his scorers more freedom the last few years and for good reason—Wisconsin had the highest efficiency in iso situations last year.

Ryan gave Koenig the freedom to create even when he was surrounded by some of the most talented scorers in the country. He should expect even more with Dekker and Kaminsky off to the NBA.

C.J. Moore covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @CJMooreBR.