College Football Picks Week 10: Predictions and Odds for Top 25 Schedule
After a somewhat underwhelming week of games, college football fans should be treated with a fantastic slate of games in Week 10.
This Saturday features three games pitting top-25 teams against one another, while a number of additional clashes have serious upset potential, which could shake up the outlook for the College Football Playoff. The likes of Alabama, Notre Dame, Florida, Utah and Oklahoma can't afford a second defeat, or that's the end of their top-four dreams.
Let's take a look at the Associated Press' Top 25 poll for Week 10 and three of the juiciest matchups ahead this weekend.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Associated Press Top 25 Poll
| 1 | Ohio State | 1,465 | vs. Minnesota | OSU (-23) | OSU, 31-28 |
| 2 | Baylor | 1,408 | at Kansas State | BAY (-18.5) | BAY, 45-28 |
| 3 | Clemson | 1,381 | vs. No. 17 Florida State | N/A | CLEM, 24-21 |
| 4 | LSU | 1,346 | at No. 7 Alabama | LSU (+7) | ALA, 17-14 |
| 5 | TCU | 1,336 | at No. 12 Oklahoma State | TCU (-5) | TCU, 38-30 |
| 6 | Michigan State | 1,249 | at Nebraska | N/A | MSU, 41-20 |
| 7 | Alabama | 1,160 | vs. No. 4 LSU | ALA (-7) | ALA, 17-14 |
| 8 | Notre Dame | 1,019 | at Pittsburgh | ND (-7.5) | ND, 21-14 |
| 9 | Stanford | 1,014 | at Colorado | STAN (-16) | STAN, 30-14 |
| 10 | Iowa | 954 | at Indiana | Iowa (-8) | IND, 28-24 |
| 11 | Florida | 923 | vs. Vanderbilt | FLA (-19) | FLA, 27-21 |
| 12 | Oklahoma State | 879 | vs. No. 5 TCU | OKST (+5) | TCU, 38-30 |
| 13 | Utah | 809 | at Washington | Even | Utah, 28-19 |
| 14 | Oklahoma | 712 | vs. Iowa State | OKLA (-26) | OKLA, 41-13 |
| 15 | Memphis | 683 | vs. Navy | MEM (-8.5) | MEM, 17-10 |
| 16 | Michigan | 613 | vs. Rutgers | MICH (-21.5) | MICH, 28-7 |
| 17 | Florida State | 571 | at No. 3 Clemson | N/A | CLEM, 24-21 |
| 18 | Houston | 466 | vs. Cincinnati | HOU (-9) | HOU, 41-24 |
| 19 | Ole Miss | 414 | vs. Arkansas | MISS (-11) | MISS, 21-17 |
| 20 | Toledo | 366 | vs. Northern Illinois | TOL (-7) | TOL, 30-27 |
| 21 | North Carolina | 248 | vs. Duke | UNC (-8) | UNC, 24-17 |
| 22 | UCLA | 190 | at Oregon State | UCLA (-15.5) | UCLA, 45-27 |
| 23 | Temple | 175 | at SMU | TEM (-11.5) | TEM, 24-10 |
| 24 | Mississippi State | 144 | at Missouri | MSST (-7.5) | MSST, 28-17 |
| 25 | Texas A&M | 101 | vs. Auburn | A&M (-8.5) | A&M, 27-21 |
Games to Watch
No. 1 Ohio State vs. Minnesota
Minnesota may be 4-4 and heading to Columbus, Ohio, having lost three of its last four games, but the Golden Gophers could be a tricky matchup for Ohio State.
When it comes to defending the pass, Minnesota has been extremely strong all season. It sits 13th in yards allowed per game (176.3). In addition, Football Outsiders' S&P+ metric, which adjusts for factors such as garbage time stats and situational success, ranks the Golden Gophers 11th in pass defense.
That's not good news for the Buckeyes, who rank 31st in passer rating (146.5) but 75th in yards per game (217.6).
Ohio State looked to have taken a step forward last week with J.T. Barrett as the starting quarterback. But the Buckeyes will be going back to Cardale Jones after Barrett's OVI arrest and subsequent one-game suspension.
ESPN Stats & Info offered up this figure to broadly demonstrate how much better the defending national championships have played offensively with Barrett under center:
Minnesota doesn't have a great run defense, which will be an issue with Ezekiel Elliott looking more like the Heisman Trophy candidate many expected him to be before the season.
Still, Ohio State has had trouble putting teams away for good with Jones at quarterback, in small part due to the way head coach Urban Meyer had gotten a little more tentative with his play-calling.
The Buckeyes should still win even if Meyer reverts to that tactic, but don't be surprised if his team pulls out the victory in unconvincing fashion, similar to how it prevailed over Indiana back on Oct. 3.
No. 7 Alabama vs. No. 4 LSU
Leonard Fournette is currently leaving Herschel Walker and Bo Jackson in his dust in the SEC record books, but his most difficult task to date comes Saturday: facing off against the Alabama Crimson Tide.
Making this game all about Fournette vs. Alabama is somewhat reductive, but his performance will in all likelihood decide the outcome of this game. LSU certainly can't afford to have him struggle; otherwise, the Tigers' fate will rest on the arm of Brandon Harris.
After Alabama lost to Ole Miss earlier in the year, the familiar narrative about the end of the Crimson Tide dynasty once again came up. Yet, Alabama defeated Georgia and Texas A&M by 28 and 18 points, respectively, following that game. Both of those wins came on the road as well.
The Tide haven't lost two regular-season games in the same year since 2010. You can fool Nick Saban once, but you can't fool him twice—at least until bowl season rolls around. If anything, Alabama might be more dangerous after it has suffered a first defeat, since any threat of complacency among the players goes out the door.
As much as you want to get excited at the prospect of Fournette running all over the Alabama defense, the Tide are allowing just 78.5 yards per game on the ground and 2.6 yards per carry. And even when they give up a big game on the ground to a star running back, like they did with Nick Chubb earlier this year, they compensate by ratcheting up against the pass.
Across the board, Alabama is the more complete team, but Fournette's prodigious talent could still tip the scales in favor of LSU.
No. 3 Clemson vs. No. 17 Florida State
Whether fair or not, "Clemsoning" has become a part of the college football lexicon after Clemson consistently tantalized fans in the past, only to let them down later, usually in heartbreaking fashion. The Tigers' defeats to Florida State in each of the last two years immediately come to mind when you think of a "Clemsoning."
Back in October, head coach Dabo Swinney delivered an impassioned defense of his team and why he feels the label is unfair:
While Swinney has every right to take umbrage with what he feels is any negative perception of Clemson, the Tigers record (10-16) against ranked opponents in his tenure is less than ideal:
| 2008 | No. 22 Florida State | Loss, 27-41 |
| 2009 | No. 15 Georgia Tech | Loss, 27-30 |
| 2009 | No. 15 TCU | Loss, 10-14 |
| 2009 | No. 10 Miami | Win, 40-37(OT) |
| 2009 | No. 10 Georgia Tech | Loss, 34-39 |
| 2010 | No. 16 Auburn | Loss, 24-27(OT) |
| 2010 | No. 16 Miami | Loss, 21-30 |
| 2010 | No. 25 NC State | Win, 14-13 |
| 2010 | No. 18 South Carolina | Loss, 7-29 |
| 2011 | No. 21 Auburn | Win, 38-24 |
| 2011 | No. 11 Florida State | Win, 35-30 |
| 2011 | No. 11 Virginia Tech | Win, 23-3 |
| 2011 | No. 12 South Carolina | Loss, 13-34 |
| 2011 | No. 11 Virginia Tech | Win, 38-10 |
| 2011 | No. 23 West Virginia | Loss, 33-70 |
| 2012 | No. 4 Florida State | Loss, 37-49 |
| 2012 | No. 12 South Carolina | Loss, 17-27 |
| 2012 | No. 8 LSU | Win, 25-24 |
| 2013 | No. 5 Georgia | Win, 38-35 |
| 2013 | No. 5 Florida State | Loss, 14-51 |
| 2013 | No. 10 South Carolina | Loss, 17-31 |
| 2013 | No. 7 Ohio State | Win, 40-35 |
| 2014 | No. 12 Georgia | Loss, 21-45 |
| 2014 | No. 1 Florida State | Loss, 17-23(OT) |
| 2014 | No. 22 Georgia Tech | Loss, 6-28 |
| 2015 | No. 6 Notre Dame | Win, 24-22 |
On one hand, it feels like Clemson finally turned the corner in its 24-22 victory over Notre Dame on Oct. 3.
Then again, the Tigers allowed 19 points in the fourth quarter and very nearly allowed the Fighting Irish to tie the game with seven seconds remaining. It looked like Swinney did everything to not lose that game rather than put Notre Dame away when it was on the ropes.
Now, the biggest hurdle for the Tigers approaches Saturday. They're 8-20 all-time against the Seminoles, and they've dropped four of their last five meetings.
If Clemson wins, then Swinney is further validated for his hatred of the "Clemsoning" tag. Should his team lose, then all of the critiques of his team once again come to the fore, and rightfully so.
In more practical terms, Florida State is Clemson's toughest game left on the schedule. South Carolina is a complete mess, and none of North Carolina, Pittsburgh or Duke looks all that imposing in a potential ACC championship matchup.
A spot in the playoff would be well within reach for the Tigers if they remain undefeated following Week 10.
Note: Week 10 spreads are courtesy of Odds Shark.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
