
UNC Basketball: 5 Burning Questions for Tar Heels in 2015-16
The North Carolina Tar Heels have high expectations, but there are no sure things in college basketball. If they don't play to their potential, the season could be over before they know it.
There are obvious strengths throughout this team, from veteran experience to depth to pure talent. There are four players capable of being All-ACC performers and valuable contributors throughout the roster. In head coach Roy Williams' system, this is an offense that could score in the 90s with regularity.
Like all teams, though, there are still a few question marks heading into the season. A few issues need to be resolved in order to truly consider this squad a legitimate national title contender.
Here is a look at the biggest questions for North Carolina heading into the 2015-16 season.
Who Will Replace J.P. Tokoto?
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While a team like Kentucky has to replace almost its entire rotation, North Carolina lost just a single contributing player from last season. J.P. Tokoto entered the NBA draft and left the team with a hole in the starting lineup.
As deep as the team is, Tokoto's contributions will certainly be missed. He was the Tar Heels' best on-ball defender, a quality passer, a good rebounder and the most athletic player on the roster. Basically, he was the perfect glue guy on a contending team.
One person will replace him in the starting lineup, although it will likely take a few players to make up for his absence.
Theo Pinson appears to be the best bet to take over key defensive assignments. The 6'6" guard has the length and athleticism needed to slow down opposing players but has to prove he is healthy. Point guards Joel Berry and Nate Britt could see more playing time as well in an effort to keep better passers in the lineup.
These players might not get a lot of points but should play crucial roles throughout the season.
Will Marcus Paige Replicate Sophomore Production?
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There were high expectations heading into last season for Marcus Paige after he averaged 17.5 points and 4.2 assists per game as a sophomore. He did a better job of finding his teammates last season (4.5 assists per game), but his scoring dropped to 14.1 per game.
He certainly wasn't bad last season, but his injuries and mental obstacles definitely slowed him down.
"I just wasn’t playing well," Paige said of his junior season, via GoHeels.com. "I wasn’t shooting the ball well, you know, a lot of pressure and expectations around me, and I kind of let that get to my head, and by the time I got comfortable with it, I started getting hurt."
Now that he is healthy and more experienced, he should get back to being an elite scorer. This includes not only making outside shots but aggressively going inside and either finishing in the paint or getting to the foul line. This was the biggest difference between his sophomore and junior seasons.
After being named first-team All-American in the preseason by Sports Illustrated and a whole bunch of other publications, it is now up to Paige to live up to this standard.
Can Team Add Balance with More Outside Shooting?
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This team won't have any problem scoring inside. Brice Johnson, Kennedy Meeks and Isaiah Hicks will lead one of the top frontcourts in the nation, while Justin Jackson also knows how to get himself to the rim.
Last season the Tar Heels ranked second in the country with 62 percent of points coming from two-point range, according to KenPom.com. Conversely, the squad also ranked 344th (out of 351) in points from beyond the arc.
Aside from Marcus Paige, no one could be trusted to make an outside shot with any consistency. A team is much easier to defend when there is no reason to respect shooters.
This season there is hope that Jackson, Joel Berry and Nate Britt can all improve from three-point range. Freshmen Kenny Williams and Luke Maye will also get some playing time based on their ability to spread the floor.
Still, no one besides Paige has proved himself in this area at the college level. UNC will need to showcase a lot more balance if it truly wants to be unstoppable.
Is Justin Jackson Ready for a Featured Role?
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It is hard to be assertive with established upperclassmen around you, which was a problem for Justin Jackson at the start of his freshman year and might continue into this season. That said, North Carolina will be a lot better if he can reach his potential.
The 6'8" wing averaged 10.7 points per game last season but really turned it on late with double-digit points in 11 of the final 12 games of the year. In seven postseason games, Jackson averaged 13.7 points and shot an unbelievable 52.9 percent from the field, including a 47.8 mark from three-point range.
According to DraftExpress, Jackson is currently considered the top NBA prospect on this loaded roster thanks to his size and ability to create his shot. These attributes could be extremely useful at this level against competition that simply won't be able to guard him.
North Carolina needs the sophomore to take the next step in his development and become a true go-to option alongside Marcus Paige. If he stays tentative, the Tar Heels will always be missing something.
Can the Defense Match the Offense?
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This is by far the biggest question mark for North Carolina this season. Is this defense good enough to win a championship?
Even with J.P. Tokoto on the roster, the Tar Heels finished 2014-15 ranked No. 51 in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom.com. The No. 10 offense got them to the Sweet 16, but the defense was the problem against elite opponents like Wisconsin, Notre Dame and Duke.
UNC plays a fast-paced game, so opponents are always going to score a lot of points. The problem is the ease with which they were able to create open looks. This comes from the perimeter players' not keeping their man in front and the low-post players' not providing enough help. As a whole, it simply came down to a lack of focus, not ability.
If North Carolina is truly going to contend for a national title, the defense has to be almost as good as the offense. This is what separates good from great teams, and the Tar Heels can't afford to not reach this level.
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