Breeders' Cup 2015: Last-Minute Picks and Predictions
The Breeders’ Cup has been around since 1984, and for the first time in its history, a Triple Crown winner will take center stage, with American Pharoah taking on eight foes in the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic at Keeneland in Kentucky.
The Classic is one of nine championship races on tap Saturday in the 32nd running of the Breeders’ Cup, a two-day championship for the top horses in the world.
Four races took place Friday, and nine Grade 1 races will be contested on Saturday, including American Pharoah going for the Grand Slam and looking to add the Classic to his victories in the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes.
His job got a bit easier with the scratch of second choice Beholder, and for Pharoah's fans this will be the last chance to watch him race in the afternoon. He is headed to the breeding shed win or lose after the Classic.
Let’s take a look at a few last-minute predictions as well as picks for the Classic. The marquee event will be televised live on NBC at 5:35 p.m. ET.
Upsets Will Rule the Day
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When you bring the top horses from around the world together to compete in 13 races with over $26 million up for grabs, upsets are going to happen.
On Friday’s card, Liam’s Map got the job done as the chalk, but the other three winners paid $16.40, $14.80 and $16.20, respectively.
Saturday’s card has several favorites such as Songbird (Juvenile Fillies), Golden Horn (Turf) and American Pharoah (Classic) who look like legitimate favorites, but there are plenty of live long shots throughout the nine championship races.
The Todd Pletcher-trained Dame Dorothy is going to be a price and could pull off the upset in the Filly and Mare Sprint. She has won seven of her 11 career starts, and her best makes her a player.
Ivan Fallunovalot is 30-1 on the morning line for the Sprint despite the fact he has won 11 of his 19 career starts. He is very quick but has been beating up on softer company. Hall of Fame rider Calvin Borel knows how to boot home a long shot.
Unbridled Outlaw is 15-1 on the morning line for the Juvenile and has the look of an improving two-year-old. He rallied to finish third in the Iroquois at Churchill Downs in his last start. He could be rolling late again at a generous price.
It’s not much fun betting chalk, so look for some prices on Saturday.
Trainer Todd Pletcher Has Shot at Huge Breeders’ Cup
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Todd Pletcher has won the Eclipse Award for top trainer seven times and has won seven Breeders’ Cup races from 108 starters coming into this year.
On Friday, he won the Dirt Mile with Liam’s Map and the Distaff with Stopchargingmaria. He could spend some time in the winner’s circle Saturday as well.
Stopchargingmaria was involved in a bumping incident in the stretch and had to wait out an inquiry and a jockey objection. "In light of what Bayern did last year," Pletcher said when interviewed on NBC, comparing the incident to Bayern's wiping out a couple of foes coming out of the gate in last year’s Classic. "This was nothing."
Pletcher sends out Rachel’s Valentina in the Juvenile Fillies. She is out of the multiple Grade 1 winner Rachel Alexandra and will take on the highly regarded Songbird.
Dame Dorothy will go in the Filly and Mare Sprint and is 10-1 on the morning line, but her best puts her in the mix in a wide-open race. Pletcher will also saddle long shot Sweet Whiskey in the race.
Next, he will saddle Mshawish in the Mile. The five-year-old is 15-1 on the morning line. Fifth in the Fourstardave Handicap in his last start, he won the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap and the Ft. Lauderdale earlier this year.
Pletcher’s final bullet comes in the Turf where he will send out Red Rifle, who won the Bowling Green Handicap earlier this year. He faces a tough group of Euros including Golden Horn, who will be the short-priced favorite.
Stars in the Making in Juvenile Races
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The winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile is anointed the early favorite for next spring’s Kentucky Derby, and several potential superstars in the making will compete on Saturday.
Breeders’ Futurity winner Brody’s Cause, FrontRunner victor Nyquist and Champagne winner Greenpointcrusader will square off, but any of these lightly raced two-year-olds can jump up with a big effort and become the Derby favorite.
The best juvenile may compete earlier on the card. The two-year-old filly Songbird might be better than the boys. She is perfect in three starts and has won her races by a combined 16 ¼ lengths.
Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, she will be a short price in the Juvenile Fillies and could end up running faster than the boys do later on the card.
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Euro Invaders Will Dominate on Turf
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Just about every year the European invaders come across the pond and run well in the turf races, and 2015 will be no exception.
Legatissimo will likely go off as the betting favorite in the Filly and Mare Turf, and she is legit. She has won four of her last six starts, and her two losses both came by a nose. Three of her wins were Group 1 victories.
In the Breeders’ Cup Mile, the absence of now retired Wise Dan is good news for the Euros. The mare Esoterique takes on the boys, and she won Group 1 races in her last two starts.
Make Believe and Mondialiste are highly regarded, and it would be no surprise to see the Euro invaders sweep the Mile trifecta.
Golden Horn landed in the U.S. this week and is regarded as one of the best turf horses in the world. He has won seven of his eight career starts and will be one of the shortest prices of the day.
He is looking to become the first horse to win both the Arc de Triomphe and Breeders’ Cup Turf. Six have tried and failed, but this guy is the real deal.
Long Shot with Chance of Upset in Classic
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Frosted is a three-year-old who was no match for the Triple Crown winner this spring, checking in fourth in the Run for the Roses and second in the Belmont Stakes.
However, the colt has developed nicely over the summer, running a good second in the Jim Dandy and third in the Travers. He finally put it all together by winning the Pennsylvania Derby in his last start.
Last year’s Pennsylvania Derby winner was Bayern, who went on to win the Classic last year. Is it possible the Classic winner could come through Parx Racing again?
The colt is in good hands with trainer Kiaran McLaughlin, who won the 2006 Classic with Invasor. The colt may be worth a good look if he goes off near his 12-1 morning line.
Prediction for Show in Classic
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American Pharoah steps onto the racetrack for the final time Saturday and will be sent off at a very short price as he takes on eight foes as the first Triple Crown winner to compete in the Breeders’ Cup.
Everything points to this colt rebounding off his loss last out in the Travers at Saratoga, where he ran a disappointing second to Keen Ice.
The colt has the tactical advantage, as the speedy Liam’s Map bypassed this race to go in the Dirt Mile, which he won in style Saturday, and Beholder had to scratch with irritated tissue in her lung.
With Beholder out, Pharoah's price is going to shrink to below even money. He has been the early betting favorite for the Classic for months.
It is his race to win, as he could find himself loping along with an easy early lead. However, he will have a couple of top-notch older horses coming at him in the stretch, and if he does not bring his A-game, he could head to the breeding shed with another loss.
Prediction for Place in Classic
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Honor Code had a few fans jump off his bandwagon after his third-place finish in the Kelso Handicap in his final prep, but he caught a sloppy surface and did not get much pace to run at that day.
The colt ran huge two and three back by winning the Whitney and Met Mile, earning Beyer Speed Figures in both starts that are higher than the Triple Crown winner has earned in his career.
His Hall of Fame trainer, Shug McGaughey, has been raving about how the colt is coming into the race, and that is unusual for the conservative soft-spoken conditioner.
"I couldn't be happier," McGaughey said, via the NYRA Press Office after his last work on Oct. 25. "I wish they were running it today so I wouldn't have to worry about it anymore."
The pace setup is not ideal, as there is not much early speed for this late-running colt to run into, but he should be flying home late and has a big shot of winning this race.
Prediction for Win in Classic
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There is no doubt that 2014 Belmont Stakes winner Tonalist does his best work at Belmont Park. Five of his six career wins have come in the Big Apple over the surface that is dubbed Big Sandy.
The colt is coming off an impressive victory in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, a race that has produced seven Classic winners. He always seems to fire, landing in the money in 12 of his 14 career starts. There is no question about the distance, and this looks like the spot where he could pick up his first stakes win outside of New York.
Steve Haskin, a noted columnist at Blood-Horse, is a fan of Tonalist: “I have to go with him as the value selection based on his having fewer question marks than the others and being the most consistently fast horse in the field.”
His trainer, Christophe Clement, is one of the most respected in the game but is sporting a 0-for-26 record in the Breeders’ Cup. He has had some tough luck, and many of his horses have run well. A dozen have run fourth or better including Gio Ponti, who looked like a winner in the 2009 Classic, only to get run down in the deep stretch by the mare Zenyatta.
On Saturday afternoon, it could be Tonalist who runs down Triple Crown winner American Pharoah.
Odds courtesy of Equibase and Odds Shark. Statistics courtesy of Breeders’ Cup.
Follow Michael Dempsey on Twitter @turfnsport
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