Duke Basketball: 5 Bold Predictions for Blue Devils in 2015-16

What do the defending champions have in store for their encore performance? We'll find out in a little more than a week when Duke opens the 2015-16 season at home against Siena, the start of its quest for a sixth national title and second in a row.

But why should we wait until then to see if the new-look Blue Devils have what it takes to compete for another championship? It's more fun to make some bold predictions, the kind that help us get through the seven-plus months between the end of one season and the start of the next.

We've made five projections for Duke for 2015-16 that may or may not happen, but if they do it will make for a very interesting year.

At Least Two Losses in Nonconference Play

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Duke will play 13 nonconference games, with none of them on an opponent's home court. Besides nine in Cameron Indoor Stadium, the Blue Devils have three games set for Madison Square Garden in New York City and another in Chicago, that being the anticipated matchup with Kentucky in the Champions Classic on Nov. 17.

That will be the first time Duke loses this season, but probably won't be the only time it falls before getting into ACC play on Jan. 2.

The best options for a potential second loss come in those other neutral-site games, which are against VCU on Nov. 20, either Georgetown or Wisconsin on Nov. 22 in the 2K Classic and then against Utah on Dec. 19. Madison Square Garden is like a second home court for the Blue Devils and was the site of where Mike Krzyzewski won his 1,000th game last season, but they have lost there more often to nonconference foes than in Durham.

Duke has a 116-game win streak at home against non-ACC foes, dating back to 2000, but there is one potential loss on the non-league home slate: Indiana, which visits on Dec. 2 as part of the ACC/Big Ten Challenge.

Matt Jones Plays Plenty of Meaningful Minutes

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A starter during parts of his first two seasons, Matt Jones' role for his junior year appears to be one in which he's going to serve as a super sub. The 6'5" guard shoots well enough to play the 2 and has the size to handle the 3 in most situations; also, in Duke's first exhibition game he started at point guard.

He was injured in that game and sat out the second exhibition on Wednesday, but if healthy he figures to be a major part of this team's plans.

Will he end up starting during the regular season? Probably not, and if so only as a fill-in because of injury or when someone else is struggling. But with the versatility to play multiple positions and with experience as one of Duke's starters during last year's postseason, Jones is in line to average more minutes per game than at least one full-time starter in 2015-16.

That speaks as much to the Blue Devils' overall depth as it does to Jones' skills, though. Last year, Duke only had six players average more than 10 minutes per game—Jones was one, at 21.7 per game—but that number could be as many as eight or nine this season.

Luke Kennard Is the Most Impressive Freshman

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The first player in Duke's freshman class to commit, back in March 2014, Luke Kennard saw the Blue Devils pick up several more high-profile players after him, and each one came with greater hype than he'd received. It's a similar scenario to Grayson Allen, who was the forgotten member of last year's freshmen group who hardly played until some big minutes in the Final Four.

Kennard won't have to wait that long to break through, though. He's going to have an impact from the outset, even if he isn't likely to beat out Allen for the starting shooting guard spot. Allen played the point on Wednesday in an exhibition against Livingstone, freeing up Kennard to pour in 25 points (on 6-of-11 three-point shooting) with nine rebounds.

An explosive scorer in high school who finished his career in second place in Ohio state history, Kennard might end up being Duke's best perimeter shooter if he can be patient. When Allen saw action last season, he was like a ball of fury and sometimes played out of control, and this impacted his involvement early on.

That won't happen with Kennard: He'll get his chances early and increase his playing time as the season progresses.

At Least One Two-Game Losing Streak

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Duke's 2014-15 season ended with a six-game win streak and some celebratory net-cutting in Indianapolis, but it wasn't all roses along the way. In early January, there were major concerns about the Blue Devils' chances after they lost two in a row by double digits, including by 16 at home against a Miami (Florida) team that wouldn't make the NCAA tournament.

Those slumps will happen during the year, and nothing indicates another mini-skid won't occur this season. Based on how Duke's schedule lines up, there are a few stretches where losing consecutive games seems very possible.

The first comes in late January when the Blue Devils head out on a three-game road trip to North Carolina State, Miami and Georgia Tech. It's not the most daunting lineup of opponents, but the first two games are two days apart, and then there's an eight-day break between the Miami and Georgia Tech games. That's the second-longest hiatus in the season, outside of a nine-day space between two nonconference games during the holidays, and rust could form.

The other potential skid area comes in February when the Blue Devils follow up a visit from two-time defending regular-season champ Virginia by going to North Carolina four days later. That's followed by a trip to Louisville with only two days of rest.

The Season Ends in the Sweet 16

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Sorry, fans of college basketball dynasties, but history isn't on your side.

Duke won consecutive titles in 1991-92, but since then there's been only one repeat champion (Florida in 2006-07). And the 2008 Florida team began a trend of defending champions who not only haven't come close to winning again but often don't even get a chance to repeat.

The Gators ended up in the NIT that year, as did 2009 champ North Carolina in 2010, 2012 winner Kentucky in 2013 and 2014 winner Connecticut last season.

No defending champ has advanced beyond the Sweet 16 during that span, including when Duke was knocked out in that round in 2011. The Blue Devils also fell in the Sweet 16 in 2002 as reigning champs.

Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.