Breeders' Cup 2015: 10 Bold Predictions for This Year's Races
The two days of the Breeders' Cup are among the most anticipated horse racing dates of the year. While the Kentucky Derby and the rest of the Triple Crown have the name recognition, for some the Breeders' Cup is the real championship event.
The best horses, riders and trainers from across the world have converged on Lexington, Kentucky, and are set to determine who's on top in each division.
Will the Triple Crown winner be dethroned? And if he is, is the title of Horse of the Year in jeopardy? Will an unknown contender from across the pond pull a big upset?
Read on for 10 bold predictions for this year's loaded two-day Breeders' Cup.
Gary Stevens Is Going to Have a Huge Breeders' Cup
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Jockey Gary Stevens has enjoyed a career renaissance of epic proportions. After launching his comeback in 2013, he has been at the top of his game and is routinely competing against jockeys half his age, showing them how it's done.
Though he was faced with a crushing disappointment on Thursday morning when it was announced that superstar mare Beholder would be scratched from the Classic, he still has the potential to have a very successful Breeders' Cup day.
Even without Beholder, he has a loaded dance card. Though he only has one Breeders' Cup mount on Friday, a long shot in the Juvenile Turf, on Saturday he has live mounts on No Silent (Turf Sprint), Taris (Filly and Mare Sprint) and Kobe's Back (Sprint).
Fillies Will Dominate the Major Turf Races
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There is a separate Breeders' Cup race on the grass just for fillies and mares: the obviously named Filly and Mare Turf. Despite an option to run against their gender only, fillies and mares often step forward and compete against the boys in the Mile and the Turf.
This year, both races have top contenders that are fillies.
The Breeders' Cup Mile has a long history of success by fillies and mares. Starting with two-time winner Miesque (1987,1988), the race was also won by Six Perfections (2003) and by the spectacular champion Goldikova (2008-10).
This year, Esoterique tops the international contingent, and the Irish-bred mare has been knocking heads with Europe's best of either gender all year. Topping the domestic arsenal is Tepin, a four-year-old filly who will be taking on boys for the first time.
In the Turf, there is Found, a three-year-old filly who will not only be facing males but older rivals as well. In an ambitious move by trainer Aiden O'Brien, she will be making her third start already this month. She has, however, proved she can compete with the best overseas, which is usually enough to make a horse a factor in these turf races.
Wesley Ward Will Finish 1-2-3 in the Turf Sprint
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Wesley Ward's name has become synonymous with success on the turf, and while he does not have a heavy favorite in the wide-open Turf Sprint, he has a legitimate chance to pull a shocker and finish 1-2-3 with his group of contenders.
Starting from the inside, he has Undrafted, who is owned in part by unsigned wide receiver Wes Welker. While his football year may not be going well, he could have a big Breeders' Cup day. This gelding is a world traveler and as consistent as they come—and will have acclaimed international jockey Frankie Dettori aboard.
Moving on to big long shot Green Mask, the gelding has not actually won this year, but if you judge a horse by the company he keeps, he has been running against quality horses and should be a contender. He also clocked a sharp recent bullet workout at Keeneland and will have Joel Rosario in the irons.
Last but not least is The Great War. This colt cost $1 million as a yearling and will try to break through and make good on that ambitious price. He was fourth in the Juvenile last year and briefly looked like a Kentucky Derby contender before being sidelined. He is making his third start of the year and could be poised for an upset with Ryan Moore aboard.
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Rachel Alexandra Will Make Her Presence Felt
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Rachel Alexandra thrilled racing fans in 2009 when she defeated male rivals in the Preakness Stakes, Haskell Invitational and the Woodward Stakes. Those three victories were enough to cement Horse of the Year honors. Often, the fillies and mares that are sensational on the race track are unable to recreate that brilliance in the breeding shed.
Rachel Alexandra, on the other hand, may be an even better broodmare than she was a racehorse. Her first foal, a colt by fellow Horse of the Year and Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Curlin, was named Jess’s Dream. After a late start, he broke his maiden impressively at Saratoga this summer as a three-year-old. But the real star may be her first filly, the undefeated two-year-old Rachel’s Valentina.
After a dazzling debut victory, she took on stakes company in the Spinaway Stakes and proved that not only does she have her mother’s talent but her heart as well. Now she will face the biggest test of her career when she squares off against the undefeated West Coast star, Songbird.
The Pizza Man Will Deliver
5 of 10Don’t let his silly name fool you: The Pizza Man is a serious racehorse.
In a race that has been historically dominated by European runners, the Illinois-bred gelding will try to replicate the feat of his sire, English Channel, who defeated a strong international field in the 2007 Breeders’ Cup Turf.
The hometown hero has been in exceptional form this year and thrilled a local crowd with his victory in the Arlington Million in August. In a genius move by his connections, he was sent to Keeneland to compete in the Shadwell Turf Mile.
Though out of his element in going only a mile, he got something incredibly valuable out of that race: a performance over the Keeneland turf course. That alone will give him an advantage over the new shooters from Europe who, while they may boast impressive form, are untested over the surface.
He has a brilliant kick from off the pace and could surprise by pulling a major upset.
A Newcomer Will Win a Major Race
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The Breeders’ Cup is full of the usual suspects: Todd Pletcher, Bob Baffert, Mike Smith, Gary Stevens. However, there are also some fresh, new faces to the lineup this year that could have an impact on the big day. Just because a trainer or jockey is not a household name does not mean he's not ready to play in the big leagues.
There is, of course, one of the top contenders in the Sprint: Runhappy. His five career victories match those of his young trainer, Maria Borell. A victory from the brilliantly fast colt would not be a surprise, but there are other newcomers who are making their Breeders’ Cup debuts or return with some long shots.
Trainer Marcus Vitali forged his career in New England and has enjoyed some big successes on a national level. He will saddle the first Breeders’ Cup starter with the hard-knocking and consistent multiple graded stakes winner, Valid. While he will be facing some formidable competition in the Dirt Mile from the likes of Liam’s Map and Lea, he has proven to be a tough competitor who fires every time.
Peace and War Will Win the Distaff
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It appeared that big long shot Peace and War would be watching the Breeders’ Cup Distaff from the sidelines when she was entered as an also-eligible in the overflow field. However, her luck turned when it was announced that Untapable, the reigning winner, would have to sit out this year’s edition of the race.
Trainer Graham Motion is not one to overhype his horses and has been very confident about this filly’s chances, despite the fact that she has gone winless from five starts this year. If Motion thinks she is good enough to compete at this level, that should be enough of an endorsement. He is not a trainer who often takes a swing in a big race simply to have a horse in the starting gate.
"Assuming Beholder in #BC15 Classic, Calamity Kate gets in Distaff. Peace and War the lone AE: @GrahamMotion: "She'll ship. I want to run."
— Marty McGee (@DRFMcGee) October 24, 2015
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It is worth noting, however, that the biggest victory of her career came as a juvenile in the Darley Alcibiades Stakes at Keeneland.
Kitten's Joy (and Ken Ramsey) Will Have a Big Day
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Kitten's Joy suffered a heartbreaking defeat in the 2004 edition of the Breeders' Cup Turf. Though he lost that day, he wound up winning in the long run and has turned into one of the most prolific turf stallions in the country for owners and breeders Ken and Sarah Ramsey.
Kitten's Joy will be represented by a total of six runners over the course of the two days of the Breeders' Cup. Of those six, five will carry the familiar red-and-white silks of the Ramseys. Kitten's Joy could potentially have a banner day as a stallion, and if he wins, so does Ken Ramsey, who has been his biggest supporter.
The "kittens" that will be competing for the Ramsey's are Camelot Kitten (Juvenile Turf), Sapphire Kitten (Juvenile Fillies Turf), defending champion Bobby's Kitten (Turf Sprint), former Breeders' Cup winner Stephanie's Kitten (Filly and Mare Turf) and last but not least, Big Blue Kitten (Turf).
Wow. Or should I say, meow.
American Pharoah Won't Be in the Top Three
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American Pharoah was the horse we had all been waiting for. When he stormed home at Belmont Park to end the 37-year Triple Crown drought, the grandstand literally shook.
He will be facing the most formidable task of his career in what is scheduled to be his final race, and there is a good chance he won't finish in the top three.
The Breeders' Cup Classic this year has attracted one of the most talented and diverse fields in the history of the race. Even with the disappointing defection of champion mare Beholder, American Pharoah will have to face two very dangerous closers: Honor Code and Tonalist.
Pace will make the race. The question is whether or not American Pharoah will face any pressure on or near the lead, particularly with the absence of Beholder. But if Pharoah gets hooked out front like he did in the Travers Stakes, he will have those two imposing colts to hold off (in addition to the Travers upset winner, Keen Ice), and they just might catch him.
Honor Code Will Win the Classic
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Honor Code is in so many ways his father's son. His sire, A.P. Indy, won the Breeders' Cup Classic on what will be exactly 23 years to the day from when his final great son, Honor Code, makes the last start of his career.
Honor Code resembles A.P. Indy in many ways, but the similarities go beyond the physical. Honor Code, since his debut, has been destined for greatness. Though he was forced to sit out the Triple Crown last year and his career has been plagued by minor injuries and missed time, he has been brilliant as a four-year-old.
His year has not been without blemishes. He has had two losses this year, both were very disappointing. However, he may have gotten exactly what he needed out of his defeat last time out and will be flying down the stretch at Keeneland to not only put an exclamation point on his career but on the stallion career of A.P. Indy.
Immediately following the Classic, he will be heading home—to Lane's End, where A.P. Indy is now pensioned—to be the heir to his father's throne.
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