Pac-12 Basketball: Preview and Predictions for 2015-16 Season
The Pac-12 Conference could be headed for a major transition year after several seasons of strong play. The league has sent eight teams to the Sweet 16 the past three years, including three apiece in 2014 and 2015, with Arizona reaching the Elite Eight in both seasons.
The league has three teams in the Associated Press preseason poll and three in the USA Today preseason coaches poll, with a few other schools receiving votes in one or either poll. Beyond that, though, there's a lot of uncertainty that should make for a relatively wide-open race for the conference title.
Follow along as we preview how the 2015-16 season should go for the Pac-12.
Top Storylines
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Can Arizona three-peat?
The Wildcats have parlayed back-to-back regular-season titles into trips to the Elite Eight, but the 2015-16 team is going to look very different after losing four starters to graduation or the NBA draft. A solid recruiting class and a pair of impact transfers have replaced those departed players, but Arizona's claim to the top of the league isn't as firm as a year ago.
Arizona went 16-2 in league play last season, which is the best mark of any Pac-12 team since 2007-08. Including conference tourney games, it is 36-6 over the past two seasons.
Preseason challenges
The best way to help a league's profile is to win games against other notable teams from power conferences, and the Pac-12 has plenty of opportunities this November and December. In addition to teams participating in tournaments in Puerto Rico (Utah), Brooklyn (Arizona State), Maui (UCLA), the Bahamas (Washington), Orlando (USC), New York City (Stanford) and Anaheim (Arizona), there are a handful of clashes with major opponents on the docket.
Arizona and UCLA both visit Gonzaga, and both Arizona State and UCLA will face Kentucky. Utah will clash with Duke and Wichita State, while Oregon State plays Kansas and California travels to Virginia.
How many bids?
The Pac-12 sent four teams to the NCAA tournament last March, with three making the Sweet 16, but that was down from six bids in 2013-14. The prospects for a strong tourney representation this season will come down to how the middle of the pack performs during the year, though Bleacher Report's Kerry Miller projects five teams in the field at this point.
The conference lists 37 returning starters from a year ago in its preseason media guide, so odds are it won't be as bad as in 2012-13, when the Pac-12 only sent two schools into the field.
The Favorite
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Arizona
Even with only one starter back from last year's regular-season and conference tournament champion, Arizona remains the class of the Pac-12 and will stay in that position until someone knocks it off its perch. And that's only happened a few times the last few years—but not in Tucson, where the Wildcats take a 36-game home-court win streak into the season.
The lineup that Sean Miller will turn to will be a mix of established veterans (seniors Kaleb Tarczewski and Gabe York), youth (freshman Allonzo Trier and sophomore Parker Jackson-Cartwright) and impact transfers (ex-Boston College star Ryan Anderson and former San Francisco standout Mark Tollefsen).
The Wildcats have finished no worse than fourth in any of Miller's six seasons, with three regular-season titles and a tie for second since 2011.
The Challengers
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California Golden Bears
It's been a while since California was considered a serious challenger in the league, though some of Mike Montgomery's best teams were in the mix. However, the work Cuonzo Martin did on the recruiting trail has landed the Golden Bears a pair of superstar prospects in forwards Jaylen Brown and Ivan Rabb, and combined with an experienced group of returners, there's real buzz coming from Berkeley.
''They've played in a lot of big games,'' Martin said in reference to Brown and Rabb, per the Associated Press (h/t Yahoo Sports). ''Regardless of their talent, this is a different level. They are very talented guys, understand how to play, and want to be part of something successful.''
Brown and Rabb are the big draws, but Cal also has solid veterans in senior guard Tyrone Wallace and junior guards Jabari Bird and Jordan Mathews. Wallace is the Pac-12's active leader in points (1,196), assists (299) and steals (112).
Oregon Ducks
Another year, another revamped roster for Oregon, which made the Pac-12 title game last season behind conference player of the year Joseph Young, but his 20.7 points per game have graduated. The Ducks aren't starting over as much as the previous year, though, because fifth-year senior Elgin Cook and sophomores Jordan Bell and Dillon Brooks provide a strong nucleus to build around.
The addition of graduate transfer Dylan Ennis from Villanova and post player Chris Boucher, who was the NJCAA national junior college player of the year, will make for an experienced lineup in Dana Altman's sixth season.
UCLA Bruins
Steve Alford's second Bruins team underachieved during much of the season and squeaked into the NCAA tournament, only to capitalize on a favorable draw and reach the Sweet 16. Three starters are back from that group, including the coach's son, Bryce Alford, at point. One of the streakiest shooters in the country, he can be lights-out or ice-cold depending on the night, so for UCLA to be more consistent, it will need a balanced approach on offense.
Tony Parker assumes control of the post with Kevon Looney going to the NBA after one season, while Isaac Hamilton will need to be more efficient with his shooting from the wing.
Utah Utes
Last year's breakout team from the conference hopes to remain among the league's elite, though it will be doing so without do-everything guard Delon Wright. He led the team in points, assists and steals, and he was one of its better shooters and rebounders, so his production will likely be replaced by several players.
A pair of inexperienced players—sophomore Isaiah Wright and junior college transfer Lorenzo Bonam—will compete for Wright's spot, but veteran Jordan Loveridge will also take on more responsibility. The star of the Utes, though, could be 7'0" sophomore center Jakob Poeltl, who showed a lot of promise last year in shooting 68.1 percent from the field. He will now become a more sought-out weapon.
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The Bottom-Dwellers
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USC Trojans
Though it returns all five starters, that's from a team that went 3-15 in the Pac-12 and finished in last place for the second time in as many years under coach Andy Enfield. Three of USC's top five scorers failed to shoot 40 percent from the field, and the Trojans ranked 290th out of 351 Division I teams by allowing 71 points per game.
Having all that coming back could be considered both a blessing and a curse.
Washington Huskies
It's been a steady downward fall for this program over the past four years, from regular-season champs (who didn't make the NCAA tournament) in 2012 to 11th place this past season. Along the way, the Huskies have seen good prospects either not pan out, leave the program or get dismissed, and the result is a 2015-16 roster that will be one of the youngest in the country.
Outside of senior forward Andrew Andrews—the only returning starter—the only other upperclassmen are a walk-on and a junior college transfer. The rest are freshmen and sophomores, with only one (sophomore forward Donaven Dorsey) having started a game last year.
Washington State Cougars
Ernie Kent's first year in Pullman resulted in only seven conference wins, but that was more than double what the Cougars accomplished the year before. Expect a step back in year two, since aside from hard-working power forward Josh Hawkinson, there's not much else to work with on the roster.
Only six other teams in the country allowed more points per game (76.5) than Wazzu, and the departure of leading scorer DaVonte Lacy will make it hard to keep up on offense.
Best Rivalry
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Arizona vs. UCLA
The Pac-12 is broken up into six pairs of teams that, for scheduling purposes, are referred to as "travel partners." In most cases, these teams have established histories with each other. But when it comes to the most heated rivalries, it's one that crosses regional boundaries and is based more on competition for the top spot in the conference.
Arizona is the two-time defending regular-season champion, with UCLA finishing second in 2013-14, but when it comes to the conference tournament, the script has been flipped. The Wildcats claimed this past championship that included a semifinal win over UCLA in the process, but in the previous two seasons, the Bruins knocked out Arizona.
UCLA is one of the last two teams to beat Arizona on its home court, back in January 2013, while Arizona claimed the teams' last meeting in Los Angeles.
Unfortunately, because of the Pac-12's unbalanced schedule, they don't always meet twice each season. That's not the case this year, as they'll meet Jan. 7 at UCLA and Feb. 12 in Tucson.
Coaches Under the Most Pressure
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Johnny Dawkins, Stanford
Stanford ended last season with five consecutive wins, but those came en route to winning the NIT championship rather than in the NCAA tournament. The year before, the Cardinal made a surprise run to the Sweet 16 but couldn't replicate the performance despite a veteran group. Now, Stanford is starting over with the graduation of its top three scorers.
Dawkins has two NIT titles but only the one NCAA tourney appearance in seven seasons. Predecessor Trent Johnson made it in three of his four years before leaving for LSU, and Mike Montgomery went dancing in each of his final 10 years in Palo Alto. It's a program that's used to being in the mix in March and would like to make that a habit again.
Andy Enfield, USC
Enfield was essentially hired on the basis of 10 days' worth of games—his 2012-13 Florida Gulf Coast team reached the Sweet 16 as a No. 15 seed while popularizing its "Dunk City" style of play—but since heading West, he's made little noise. USC has finished dead last in the conference in both of Enfield's seasons, and it's possible that will happen again—even with all five starters coming back.
Lorenzo Romar, Washington
The longest-tenured coach in the conference by six years, Romar is heading into his 14th season in Seattle. Only 24 current Division I coaches have had their jobs longer, and it's a group that includes some of the top names (Jim Boeheim, Mike Brey, Mark Few, Steve Fisher, Tom Izzo, Mike Krzyzewski and Bo Ryan) in the game. It's a testament to what Romar has accomplished.
But the last of his six NCAA appearances came in 2011, and this past year, his team started 11-0 and finished 16-15, missing out on any postseason invite for the second year in a row.
It won't help Romar's case that his roster is almost entirely made up of freshmen and sophomores, but if some progress and consistency isn't made, his time might be up.
Best Backcourt
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California
Much of the hype the Golden Bears are getting this year as a Pac-12 and Final Four contender is the result of freshman forwards Jaylen Brown and Ivan Rabb, and rightfully so. But Cuonzo Martin brings back his entire backcourt from a year ago, and each player is either in his third or fourth year of college ball.
That trio is led by senior Tyrone Wallace, who is the top returning scorer in the conference at 17.1 points per game. Juniors Jordan Mathews (13.6) and Jabari Bird (10.5) were second and fourth on the team in scoring, respectively. That trio made up Cal's top three three-point shooters.
As much attention as the Bears' new stars are going to command, to forget about the returning guards wouldn't be a smart game plan.
Best Frontcourt
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Utah
With six players at 6'7" or taller, the Utes have the most formidable set of forwards and centers in the conference and one that could provide a good chunk of Utah's scoring in 2015-16.
The star of that group is sophomore Jakob Poeltl, a 7-footer from Austria who had some huge performances last season and ended up making more than 68 percent of his shots. He's projected by NBADraft.net as a lottery pick in 2016 based on his ability to finish inside and an acumen for blocking shots.
"Poeltl is an elite rim protector," NBC Sports' Rob Dauster wrote.
Chris Reyes, a 6'7" junior, started 33 games last year, while 6'8" Brekkott Chapman had some flashes as a freshman and could make a major impact this season.
Freshmen to Watch
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Jaylen Brown, F, California
The highest-rated freshman in the league from the 2015 class, coming in No. 4 overall in 247Sports' composite rankings, Brown is making a team that hasn't reached the Sweet 16 since 1997 a dark-horse Final Four contender. The 6'7" wing will contribute all over the court and has the chance to be the program's most accomplished player since Jason Kidd in the early 1990s.
Tyler Dorsey, G, Oregon
Originally an Arizona commit, Tyler Dorsey steps into the role that conference player of the year Joseph Young handled for the Ducks last season. The Los Angeles prospect might not put up more than 20 points per game, but after starring for Greece during the FIBA U-19 World Championship, he's primed to make a big splash.
Ivan Rabb, PF, California
Rabb opted for his hometown Golden Bears over offers from Arizona and others, which allows him to stay close to family and be part of the team he grew up watching in Oakland. An athletic 6'11" scorer who can run the floor well, Rabb could end up being the best big man in the conference by season's end.
Stephen Thompson Jr., Oregon State
OSU coach Wayne Tinkle landed a pair of premier recruits this offseason, one of which was his son, Tres Tinkle. The other is also a player with a pedigree, as Stephen Thompson Jr. is the son of Beavers assistant Stephen Thompson Sr., who played for Syracuse from 1987-90.
A 6'4" guard who had 12 points in OSU's exhibition game against Western Oregon, Thompson Jr. also had offers from Arizona State, Gonzaga and Vanderbilt.
Allonzo Trier, Arizona
Arizona has had a one-and-done star the past two seasons in Aaron Gordon and Stanley Johnson, and if Trier's penchant for taking lots of shots results in great numbers, he could be the next one. The 6'6" guard averaged more than 26 points per game as a senior at Findlay Prep, a Nevada school that has produced several recent Wildcats standouts.
All-Conference Teams
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FIRST TEAM
Gary Payton II, G, Oregon State
A do-everything player who was the Beavers' leading scorer, rebounder and steal man, as well as their most efficient shooter, Payton is continuing what his father started from 1987-90 in Corvallis. With further improvement, he could lead OSU to its first NCAA tournament appearance in 25 years.
Tyrone Wallace, G, California
The Pac-12's active career leader in points, assists and steals, the senior is going to be called on to provide production and leadership to a talent-laden lineup that is poised for its best season in decades.
Jaylen Brown, F, California
The top-rated freshman in the league, Brown picked the Golden Bears over major programs like Kansas, Kentucky and UCLA. He's got a lot of hype to live up to, but based on his play at the prep level, he's got the skills to get it done.
Elgin Cook, F, Oregon
Often facing larger opponents at only 6'6", Cook shot 52 percent to lead the Ducks in 2014-15. He's a fifth-year senior who has made 53.6 percent of his field goals in his career.
Jakob Poeltl, C, Utah
A true 7-footer who is spot-on with his shooting and deadly when defending the rim, Poeltl figures to be the league's best big man in several years.
SECOND TEAM
Bryce Alford, G, UCLA
Brandon Taylor, G, Utah
Ryan Anderson, F, Arizona
Josh Hawkinson, F, Washington State
Kaleb Tarczewski, C, Arizona
Regular-Season Standings
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- Arizona
- Utah
- California
- UCLA
- Oregon
- Oregon State
- Stanford
- Colorado
- Arizona State
- Washington
- Washington State
- USC
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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