NFL Predictions Week 8: Bleacher Report's Expert Consensus Projections

The NFL's "haves" have never had it so good, and the "have-nots" have never, well, not.

Five teams are undefeated: the New England Patriots, Cincinnati Bengals, Denver Broncos, Green Bay Packers and Carolina Panthers. There's a clear second tier, too, with six teams above .500. Three teams, the Miami Dolphins, St. Louis Rams and Oakland Raiders, are 3-3—and the other 18 teams are all playing losing football.

Eighteen losing teams.

Over the past 10 NFL seasons, the average number of losing teams each year has been 13.5. If this keeps up, the best teams in the NFL will tower over everyone else—and more than one sub-.500 team will end up in the postseason.

Of course, it won't keep up. That's what's so special about the NFL: As soon as you think you understand it, everything changes.

That's why our Bleacher Report NFL expert panel is here again to separate fact from fiction, truth from hype and bust from bargain! Our eight national NFL reporters, columnists and analysts have determined this week's biggest upsets, blowouts, sleepers and flops by majority vote; all you have to do is sit back, read up and count yourself among the "haves" in the giant world of NFL fandom.

Biggest Upset

Matt Dunham/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Detroit Lions (+4.5) over Kansas City Chiefs—three votes

Matthew Stafford's career has been full of ups and downs, from early-on injury struggles to pinball statistical output in 2011, from multiple playoff appearances to now this. His Lions are 1-6. His offensive coordinator and multiple assistants have already been fired, and that might not be where the bleeding stops.

But going into a game against one of the most talented defenses in the NFL, our experts see Stafford and the Lions bouncing back. With the Miami Dolphins' incredible bounce back after Joe Philbin's firing, maybe our experts see the Lions offense getting a bit of a lift.

NFL Lead Writer Mike Tanier didn't disagree with the majority rationale but picked an even bigger upset: the Indianapolis Colts over the Carolina Panthers:

"

This is pure old-school handicapper logic. The Panthers are an overachieving team facing an unfamiliar nonconference underachiever. The Panthers win by playing smart football, while the Colts lose by playing dumb and flat, and those are not trends you can count on every single week, especially when everyone on one team is playing for their jobs, while the other is enjoying toast-of-the-league status.

"

Others receiving votes: Dallas Cowboys (+7) over Seattle Seahawks—two votes, Miami Dolphins (+9) over New England Patriots, Colts (+7.5) over Panthers, San Diego Chargers (+3) over Baltimore Ravens

Biggest Blowout

Mike Roemer/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick (tie, three votes each): Arizona Cardinals over Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers over Denver Broncos

It's being hyped as the game of the week, and no wonder: These two quarterbacks (and teams) have been among the league's best for years on end, but Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning have only faced off against each other once—and never while Manning has been with the Broncos.

Furthermore, of course, both teams are 6-0; the NFL's herd of undefeated teams will thin by one no matter what happens (save, of course, a tie).

But while these two teams have the same record, they've gone about it differently. The Packers are beating teams by comfortable margins rather than eking out wins against struggling squads like the Browns and Baltimore Ravens.

In fact, other experts picked the Browns as this week's Biggest Blowout victim. With a mad and motivated Arizona Cardinals squad rolling behind the rejuvenated Chris Johnson, a Browns team that's struggled mightily to stop the run could be steamrolled.

Others receiving votes: Minnesota Vikings over Chicago Bears, Atlanta Falcons over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Higher Total: Ryan Tannehill Completions or Tom Brady Completions?

Steven Senne/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Brady—six votes

While Tom Brady attempted a stunning 54 times passes the New York Jets in Week 7, Tannehill has gone an astounding 40-of-48 over his last two games. Brady has been hot but not 83 percent completion-rate hot. 

The Pats will likely be able to run better against the Dolphins defensive front than they did against the league-best Jets run defense, so Brady likely won't throw as often. Just two weeks prior, against the Colts, he had a relatively sane (and Tannehill-esque) 23 completions. 

Further, the Dolphins are allowing the sixth-lowest completion rate in the NFL right now, per Pro Football Reference; the Patriots allow the 12th-lowest.

With all that said, only two of our experts like Tannehill's streak of deadly accuracy and dumpoffs to help him out-complete the NFL's hottest quarterback.

Others receiving votes: Tannehill—two votes

Biggest Mismatch

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: St. Louis Rams defensive line vs. San Francisco 49ers OL/"matadors"—seven votes

This category is usually a little harder to find a consensus on; there are so many great individual, unit and team matchups on every given Sunday that our experts struggle to agree on just one.

Not this week. 

NFL Analyst Gary Davenport explains how the San Francisco offensive line is elevating poor pass protection into its very own spectator sport:

"

There was a time not too long ago when the San Francisco 49ers possessed arguably the best offensive line in football. Last week against the Seahawks, that line looked like five matadors holding a bullfight...OLE!

This week the Niners get possibly the best front four in the NFL in end Robert Quinn, tackle Aaron Donald and the Rams. They won't need Chris Long. They could harass Kaepernick into PTSD with Howie Long...and he's 55.

Run, Colin. Run for your life.

"

Our only dissenter was NFL Draft Lead Writer Matt Miller, who thinks the Panthers front four will have just as easy a time slicing through the Colts.

Others receiving votes: Panthers defensive line vs. Colts offensive line

Sleeper QB Performance

Billy Hurst/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Nick Foles—three votes

Nick Foles is the ultimate sleeper quarterback: He's a guy you know can have a big game, but you never know when it's going to be—and when he's not having a big game, he's not usually having much of a game at all.

But against the 49ers, Foles and company are primed for a big day. The 49ers have allowed a whopping 2,049 passing yards through seven games, most in the NFL. They're also tied for the ninth-most passing touchdowns surrendered and have allowed the seventh-highest opponent passer rating.

Foles hasn't cracked 200 yards passing since Week 1, when he hung a ridiculous 297 yards on the Seahawks' Legion of Boom. Will he repeat the feat against another once-mighty NFC West passing defense? Our experts say yes.

Others receiving votes: Matthew Stafford—two votes, Teddy Bridgewater, Jay Cutler, Marcus Mariota (if he plays)

More Passing Yards: Matthew Stafford or Alex Smith?

Rick Osentoski/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Stafford—seven votes

Our experts already went with Stafford en masse when it came time to pick a sleeper quarterback, so it's no surprise seven of them picked him to put up more passing yards than Alex Smith.

They're apparently big believers in new Lions offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter, who's been a valued assistant for Peyton Manning in two different spots. Maybe if he can loosen up the Lions offense and let Stafford loose downfield, the Lions will be better prepared to put up points on the gnarly Chiefs defense.

Then again, maybe the Lions are in free-fall, and maybe Smith and company have the weapons to hang a big day on what is the NFL's worst net-yards-per-attempt passing defense, per Pro Football Reference.

That's certainly why National NFL Analyst Ty Schalter went with Smith, who's averaging 260.6 yards per game—just six fewer yards per game than Stafford.

Others receiving votes: Smith

More Turnovers: Brian Hoyer or Titans QB?

Joel Auerbach/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Hoyer/Zac Dysert—five votes

This one is a little unfair; at the time we polled our experts, it was unclear whether Zach Mettenberger or Marcus Mariota would get the start for the Tennessee Titans. Per Terry McCormick of TitansInsider.com, Mariota participated in "all individual drills" Wednesday—but it's his participation in the team drills that will decide whether the rookie goes on Sunday.

NFL Lead Writer Mike Tanier broke the tie, but not because he cast a deciding vote for Hoyer. Instead, he cast his vote for Zac Dysert, Houston Texans practice squadder. "Dysert isn't even on the active roster as I write this," Tanier chimed in. "And we wouldn't want to make the Texans quarterback dilemma even more confusing, would we?"

As proprietor of the popular #FreeZacDysert Twitter hashtag, I approve of his inclusion—but disapprove of the implication he'll throw a lot of picks.

Others receiving votes: Titans QB—three votes

Sleeper RB Performance

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Charcandrick West—three votes

It's hard to get any sleepier of a prospect than West, an undrafted second-year player out of D-II Abilene Christian. Filling in for the injured Jamaal Charles, West got a healthy diet of 22 carries last week and racked up 110 yards and a touchdown with them.

Averaging five yards per carry against the Steelers' top-10 rushing defense is impressive no matter where you come from, and West will get a chance to do much better against the 24th-ranked Detroit Lions this week.

Lamar Miller was a beast in Week 7 against the floundering Texans, but picking him to continue that success against the Patriots is a bold call indeed, National NFL Lead Writer Mike Freeman. 

Others receiving votes: Antonio Andrews, Andre Ellington, Dion Lewis, Lamar Miller, Robert Turbin

Sleeper WR Performance

Gary Hershorn/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick (tie, two votes each): Chris Conley, Eric Decker, Stefon Diggs

Eric Decker and Ryan Fitzpatrick have had great chemistry this year. Pro Football Reference charts him with 38 targets in just four starts (five games); he's caught 24 of them for a whopping 333 yards and four touchdowns.

If that doesn't sound "whopping," think of it like this: Over 16 starts, that would work out to 96 catches for 1,332 yards and 16 scores. So, yeah: chemistry.

Chiefs third-round rookie (and combine sensation) Chris Conley finally broke through last week, pulling in six catches for 63 yards and his first career touchdown against the Steelers. Going against the Lions' 24th-ranked passing defense (but not against top corner Darius Slay), Conley could be set for an even bigger day.

Stefon Diggs was our panel's third two-vote choice; the red-hot rookie is turning an awful lot of heads with his big-time performances. He's already a better route-runner than nominal No. 1 wideout Mike Wallace will ever be, and his big, sticky hands are just what the doctor ordered for Teddy Bridgewater's sluggish start.

Others receiving votes: Chris Givens, Kenny Stills

Sleeper TE Performance

Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick (tie, two votes each): Clive Walford, Ben Watson

Our experts forgive you if you haven't heard of our first sleeper tight end. The No. 2 tight end in Oakland hasn't had fantasy relevance since...OK, well, never...but the third-round rookie had two catches for 42 yards and a touchdown last week against the San Diego Chargers.

He'll have a much tougher matchup this week against the New York Jets—but then again, Gang Green will be focused on stopping Amari Cooper and the wideouts. Maybe Walford will outclass the Jets' aging outside linebacker corps.

With Jimmy Graham gone, it seemed like it was only a matter of time before whomever was next in line would get plenty of targets for the Saints. The 6'3", 255-pound, 34-year-old Watson is no Graham, but the 2004 first-round pick (!) is on pace for one of the best years of his career. Against the Giants linebackers, Graham could get loose for some crucial catches and a red-zone score or two.

Others receiving votes: Jeff Cumberland, Ladarius Green, Jermaine Gresham, Kyle Rudolph

Best Defensive Performance

Tom Gannam/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Aaron Donald/Rams—six votes

Aaron Donald is a preposterous matchup problem, an all-but-unblockable tornado of disruption. Going against the leaky San Francisco 49ers offensive line—well, heck even "leaky" is being too kind. The Niners have Pro Football Focus' worst-graded run-blocking unit by a long shot and their pass blocking isn't much better. 

Donald is a monster who is on pace for 12 sacks—huge for a defensive tackle—not to mention 47 solo tackles and 21 assists. All of those numbers would far outstrip his dominant rookie season.

The Vikings' Harrison Smith got one savvy vote from NFL Lead Writer Mike Tanier. Smith has been all over the field, doing everything; so far he's been credited with a pick, a sack, a forced fumble, two passes defensed, 23 tackles and 12 assists—and against Jay Cutler and the Bears, he has a golden opportunity to pad every single one of those stats.

Others receiving votes: Dolphins, Harrison Smith

Over/Under: 525 Passing Yards for Peyton Manning & Aaron Rodgers

Marcio Sanchez/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Over—seven votes

The answer to this slide isn't obvious, OK? It isn't. Rodgers is playing great football, but with the balance the Packers have had in the run game, not to mention their staunch defense, he hasn't had to throw all that much. He is only averaging 248.5 yards per game. Meanwhile, Manning's struggles have been well documented; he's averaging just 254 yards per game.

The Broncos and Packers are the NFL's No. 1 and No. 12 pass-yardage defenses, respectively; they're allowing a combined 428.7 yards.

So despite Manning and Rodgers averaging just 502.5 yards combined and facing each other's staunch pass defenses, seven of our eight experts took the over.

Why?

Because for just the second time in their careers, these two quarterbacks are going head-to-head—and it may be the last time they face each other, too. They will bring their best, and we will be here watching.

Others receiving votes: Under

Flop of the Week

Ben Margot/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Colin Kaepernick—four votes

For once, the Flop of the Week was an easy call.

Throughout several other categories, the devastating mismatch between the Rams' devastating pass rush and 49ers' dismal pass protection has inspired our experts to predict Colin Kaepernick's gory demise. He's going to be swarmed, swamped, thumped and dumped this Sunday, and there's very little he (or anyone else) can do about it.

Two of our experts, though, went with Darren McFadden. The Cowboys running back took a shocking 29-carry workload last week and did something with it, inspiring tears of joy from Cowboys fans nostalgic for DeMarco Murray's 2014 season—and tears of bitter regret from anyone who had drafted McFadden in fantasy over the previous six years or so.

Nevertheless, our experts feel like we probably saw McFadden's best game in Week 7, and those expecting great things again in Week 8 will be left out in the cold...just like Cowboys fans and McFadden fantasy owners.

Others receiving votes: Darren McFadden—two votes, Marshawn Lynch, Doug Martin