Grading Every Power Five Dark Horse's Path to the Playoff
The College Football Playoff race is beginning to take shape. Many of the favorites from the preseason, like Ohio State, Baylor, Clemson and TCU, are still in the running. Others, like USC and Auburn, fell out long ago.
Then there are the dark horses, the teams that have surprised with fast starts.
Would anyone have guessed heading into Week 8 that Utah would be the Pac-12's lone undefeated team? Would anyone have thought Florida would be the SEC East's best team? Did anyone put down money on undefeated Iowa before the season started? If so, what insider information are they getting?
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With November just around the corner, what are the odds that these overachieving teams not picked to win their conference/division can keep pace in the playoff hunt?
Looking ahead at schedules, key games and whether a team could overcome a loss—or second loss—we grade each Power Five conference's playoff dark horse.
Florida
At 6-1, Florida is one of college football's best surprises. First-year head coach Jim McElwain has done a superb job of getting the Gators out of mediocrity and into the SEC Championship conversation right away.
The talent was there, even with depth problems along the offensive line. The program just needed the right coach.
McElwain will likely preach how every week is a new season because, well, that's what coaches do. But there are basically three major events for Florida between now and early December: this Saturday's rivalry game against Georgia, the regular season-ending game against Florida State and, potentially, the SEC Championship Game.
That's assuming the Gators can get past Vanderbilt and Florida Atlantic at home, and South Carolina on the road.
Florida is also without starting quarterback Will Grier, who has been suspended due to a positive performance-enhancing drug test. The offense now rests on quarterback Treon Harris.
As Bleacher Report's Barrett Sallee noted, "The Gators have the best chances in the SEC to win the conference, according to ESPN's Football Power Index, at 29.4 percent."
To be sure, the path is manageable. It is not, however, a given. Florida fell short in its biggest game of the year against LSU. Granted, a fake field goal was the difference, but the result was the same.
There's a chance Florida would face the Tigers again (or even Ole Miss) if the Gators win the East. Florida is good enough to win its remaining games and it would be playoff-bound if it did. Still, it's fair to wonder if the depth and offensive explosiveness—or lack thereof—will hurt this team one more time.
Grade: B
Florida State
The ACC has three conference dark horses: Duke, Florida State and Pitt, all of which are 6-1. The Panthers have the "best" loss (to Iowa by three points), but the Seminoles have the toughest remaining games (at Clemson on Nov. 7, at Florida on Nov. 28).
Win those two games, and Florida State definitely re-enters the playoff discussion.
However, realistically, the ACC's playoff hopes rest on Clemson. The Tigers are the ACC's lone undefeated team and directly in the mix for a top-four spot.
David M. Hale of ESPN.com sums things up nicely: "If you’re keeping track at home, the ACC has five teams with one loss or fewer, more than any other conference in America. And yet the ACC also has just one team ranked in the Top 15 and, seemingly, Clemson is the only real threat to make the playoff."
All of this may be based on preconceived notions, but it's the battle the ACC is fighting. Should it win out, Florida State would have the best resume in the ACC. Pitt isn't far behind if it does the same thanks to a Nov. 7 game against Notre Dame.
However, the Georgia Tech loss is a major blemish for the Seminoles. Although the most memorable play was the blocked field goal returned for the game-winning score, the reality is Florida State's weaknesses—offensive line play and mental errors—showed up again long before that happened.
In short, there's a remote chance Florida State—or even Pitt—could get in, but neither seems equipped to make that run. Clemson is.
Grade: D
Iowa
Yep, we're actually talking about the Hawkeyes in reference to the playoff. These are indeed fascinating times.
Iowa gets a huge break schedule-wise because it doesn't have to play Ohio State, Michigan or Michigan State in the regular season. Though Iowa's schedule sets up well for an undefeated run, it hasn't been completely terrible, either. Northwestern, Pitt and Wisconsin, three of Iowa's best wins, are 18-5.
That was the difficult part. Maryland, Indiana, Minnesota, Purdue and Nebraska remain between Iowa and 12-0. Only the Gophers have a winning record.
At the risk of declaring Iowa undefeated before it happens, let's just say things shake out well.
Undefeated or not, though, it should be agreed upon that Iowa's playoff hopes hinge on the Big Ten Championship Game. That would in all likelihood be against Ohio State, Michigan State or Michigan—the three teams Iowa hasn't had to play.
But if the Hawkeyes do get to that point, something happens.
How you view the Big Ten's unlikely playoff team is narrowed through the lens of just one game. Just one. How Iowa played in 12 previous games doesn't matter. Can it play well enough to win this one game?
If college football has taught us anything, it's that anything can happen for one game.
Grade: A
Oklahoma State
Iowa may have the easiest regular-season path to the playoff, but undefeated Oklahoma State has the most advantageous one.
The Cowboys must get past Texas Tech on the road in Week 8 for this conversation to go any further, though. Lubbock is a tricky place and Oklahoma State is just a three-point favorite, per Odds Shark.
However, November sets up beautifully. Oklahoma State gets its three toughest opponents—vs. TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma—at home. The only road game is Iowa State. That's not to say the final stretch is easy—Oklahoma State might not be able to afford a loss—but you could not have asked for the schedule to set up any better if you're competing for a Big 12 title and playoff spot.
On that note, the Big 12 title race could go one of two ways: A clear front-runner could emerge or everybody could cannibalize one another and no one would exit November without multiple losses.
Still, Chuck Carlton of the Dallas Morning News reported that Oklahoma State head coach Mike Gundy is confident there will be a Big 12 team in the field of four. Presumably, in his opinion, his team:
Oklahoma State has lived dangerously a few times this year but has been able to win every game. That style likely won't hold up in the toughest stretch of the season, however. The Pokes need to start playing their best football now. If they do, they have the best setup of any Big 12 contender in the grind of November.
Grade: B
Utah
Oh, how things change. This time last week, Utah was ranked in the AP Top 4 with one of the best resumes in college football. One 42-24 loss to USC later, though, and the Utes go from playoff contenders to playoff dark horses.
The good news is Utah is by no means out of the running.
Since the Pac-12 South is a grinder, one loss doesn't define a season. That South Division title is still in play, too, meaning a playoff spot is still on the board.
Utah can prove its loss to USC was nothing more than a bad game by taking care of Washington and Arizona before getting UCLA at home in late November.
Though the Utes don't play Stanford in the regular season, a possible Pac-12 Championship Game against the Cardinal—who are playing as well as anyone in college football—could be the win Utah needs for a late-season surge.
Also, as a team on the fringe of the playoff discussion now, Utah can benefit from a number of undefeated teams losing to one another as the season progresses.
Could Utah afford a second loss before a possible conference championship appearance? The 2015 season may test this theory, but it's obviously something the Utes want to avoid altogether.
Grade: C
Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All quotes cited unless obtained firsthand. All stats courtesy of cfbstats.com.
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