Texas vs. Iowa State Complete Game Preview
Looking for their third straight win, the Texas Longhorns travel to Iowa State to take on the struggling Cyclones on Saturday.
Charlie Strong's team seems to have finally found its offensive identity. Two weeks after running for 313 yards in 24-17 win over Oklahoma, Jerrod Heard and the offense ripped off another 274 yards on Kansas State in a 23-9 win. Two of the Big 12's better defenses have had no answer for the Texas ground attack.
The offense isn't the only story in Austin. The defense has also buckled down of late, holding both the Sooners and Wildcats to less than 300 yards of offense.
While things couldn't be going much better for Strong, things are getting ugly in Ames. On Monday, head coach Paul Rhoads fired offensive coordinator Mark Mangino following a 45-27 loss to Baylor and now looks to be coaching for his job.
On the positive side, Rhoads also announced the promotion of sophomore Joel Lanning to the starting quarterback spot. He threw three touchdowns in the loss to the Bears, and the Cyclones hope he can spark an upset at home.
Date: Saturday, October 31
Time: 6 p.m. ET
Location: Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, Iowa
TV: Fox Sports 1
Line: Texas -6.5, according to Odds Shark
Texas Keys to Victory
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Keep Pounding the Rock
It's not sexy, but running the ball has become Texas' identity, and there's no reason to let up this week. The Longhorns enter this matchup coming off consecutive wins with 50-plus rushes and 250 or more yards. Now they get a team that's allowing 4.78 yards per carry, per CFBStats.com. The Horns should have another banner week on the ground.
Make Lanning's Life Miserable
Lanning provided a spark against Baylor, getting the Cyclones within 15 points of the Bears before Jarrett Stidham settled in. Unfortunately, Lanning is going up against a Longhorns defense that has racked up 11 sacks over its last two games. Given that the Cyclones are among the conference's worst at protecting their quarterback, the Longhorns front should eat once again.
Don't Get Comfortable
Texas is the more talented team in this matchup and knows it. But no matter what the record shows, Ames is a dangerous place, and Paul Rhoads is coaching for his job. With the crowd urging them on, the Cyclones will throw the kitchen sink at the Horns in hopes of stealing a win. Texas has to stay hungry, or it could endure a tough upset.
Iowa State Keys to Victory
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Take Care of the Ball
Like most run-first teams, the Longhorns just don't turn the ball over. They've coughed it up only five times this season but have forced 12 giveaways from the opposition through seven games. That plus-seven margin is good for second in the Big 12, while Iowa State ranks dead last, per CFBStats.com. Lanning will see a lot of pressure in this one, and it's imperative that he doesn't succumb to it.
Get on the Board Early
Under Strong, Texas is 9-1 when it scores first, according to Big12Sports.com. Grabbing that early lead also allows this offense to stick to the run-first plan, which has been effective. If the Cyclones can snag a 7-0 or even a 10-0 advantage, it would push Texas out of its comfort zone and force the Horns to depend on Heard's arm. A big play to Allen Lazard or Quenton Bundrage would certainly help.
Get Mike Warren Going
Since taking over as the starter, freshman Mike Warren has been the Cyclones' best weapon. The Big 12's second-leading rusher in terms of yards per game, Warren can both grind you down and rip off big plays. If one guy can take over this game for the Cyclones, it's him.
Texas Players to Watch
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DT Hassan Ridgeway
This guy can make this list every week. He gets after the passer and, as Horns Digest's Dan Neil puts it, "has been killing the other team's ability run the ball" because of his knack for beating double-teams. Texas has allowed only 202 rushing yards over its past two games, and Ridgeway is the main reason why. He's been tremendous.
LB Peter Jinkens
Jinkens deserves more credit for what he's done this season. Malik Jefferson gets the attention, but it's the senior who leads the team in tackles. His discipline is allowing the coaches to turn his freshman teammate loose. He has a big challenge in front of him this week in Mike Warren. Let's see if he can keep up the strong play.
WR John Burt
The stats haven't shown it, but Burt is clearly emerging as Texas' preferred target downfield. Heard looked his way on five of his 15 pass attempts against Kansas State, usually when the Horns were looking deep. With the weather expected to be more conducive to the passing game, don't be surprised to see Burt break loose. He's overdue.
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Iowa State Players to Watch
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OG Daniel Burton
His matchup with Ridgeway will be must-see television. Both players were on ESPN.com's All-Big 12 midseason team, and Burton's emergence has been a key factor in Warren's breakout. If Burton and the rest of this line can contain Texas' superstar tackle, the freshman could well pace the big upset.
DE Dale Pierson
Quietly, Pierson has become one of the better defenders in the Big 12. His 6.5 sacks rank behind only Oklahoma State's Emmanuel Ogbah's eight, and Pierson accounts for more than 40 percent of the team's total. Against an offensive line that's really pushing people around, let's see if he can raise his level of play against the run.
WR Allen Lazard
Iowa State's top receiver sat out against Baylor, and he sure would have helped. The 6'5" Lazard is one tough cover, which he proved with a 74-yard, grown-man score against TCU. He had a big game against the Horns last season and will probably see 179-pound freshman Holton Hill in coverage. He has to take the top off the defense at least once to tee up the upset bid.
What They're Saying
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Texas
Texas defensive tackle Paul Boyette provided bulletin-board material for the Cyclones to the Austin American-Statesman's Kirk Bohls: "Iowa State's not a very good team. One week can play well, and the next week they can be flat."
Strong addressed his rumored interest in the Miami head coaching vacancy during Monday's press conference:
"I have the best job in the country. Where did that start from? Who started that rumor, you did (laughter)? Each and every week, I'm the topic of conversation, each and every week. Hasn't been one week where I wasn't. Either they're ripping me or saying I lost my team or saying something else (laughter).
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Iowa State
The Des Moines Register's Randy Peterson wrote about Iowa State's personnel issues on offense:
"How many different quarterbacks have started games, and how many offensive coordinators have called plays since Rhoads replaced Gene Chizik before the 2009 season?
Lanning will be the seventh new starter in the 83 games Rhoads has coached after Saturday.
...
Todd Sturdy becomes Rhoads’ third offensive coordinator, following Courtney Messingham and Tom Herman.
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Prediction
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Iowa State's personnel changes could ignite an upset over Texas, but the on-field product says otherwise.
In their past two wins, the new-look Longhorns have mowed over both Oklahoma and Kansas State. Against two teams that were allowing less than four yards per carry coming in, the Longhorns just bullied their way to 587 yards on 111 carries.
Entering this matchup, the Cyclones are giving up almost five yards per carry.
On the other side of the ball, the Horns have been stifling against the run in both games (202 yards on 74 carries) while racking up 11 sacks. On both sides of the ball they're simply controlling the line of scrimmage.
As for the Cyclones, let's not overreact to the switch to Lanning and the firing of Mangino. Lanning's performance against Baylor was good for only a middling 49.5 Adjusted QBR, per ESPN.com. For reference, Texas Tech's Patrick Mahomes received a 57.4 in a 63-27 loss to Oklahoma.
Mangino is also the second offensive coordinator Rhoads has fired in the past 24 months. Rhoads can coach, but he's hardly blameless for this team's place in the conference. Per SB Nation's Jason Kirk, it doesn't seem like his players would disagree with that sentiment.
The Cyclones will hang in there, but they can't handle what Texas is doing in the trenches.
Texas 27, Iowa State 17
Unless otherwise noted, all stats and information courtesy of TexasSports.com and Cyclones.com.
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