Breeders' Cup 2015: Power Ranking the Horses in This Year's Classic Field

The $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic, the richest race in North America on the single richest day in North American horse racing, heads to the gate on Halloween.

And this particular race boasts something that has never happened in the 31 years of its storied running: There’s a Triple Crown winner.

Yes, all eyes will follow the bay colt who swept the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes becoming the 12th horse to do so and the first in 37 years.

"The Breeders' Cup is a different vibe for me,” said trainer Bob Baffert in Jonathan Lintner’s Courier-Journal story. “It will be exciting, but it's more of an end-of-the-year, big payday with big purses, not like the Triple Crown races. All my kids got to enjoy them with me, and what more can you accomplish in this sport after you win the Triple Crown?"

The answer? He can win what’s dubbed the Grand Slam: winning the Triple Crown and the Classic. American Pharoah will be the favorite, but he’s no lock to win.

Morning-line odds come courtesy of BreedersCup.com.

Read on for a power ranking of this year’s 10-horse Classic field.

10. Hard Aces

Odds: 50-1

Notable Wins: Grade 1 Gold Cup

Analysis: Hard Aces hasn’t won a race since that Gold Cup win back on June 27. He followed that up by finishing sixth in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic and the Grade 1 Awesome Again Stakes.

While winning the Gold Cup, Hard Aces had it all his way. He trailed the field while saving ground. As he made his move turning for home, the fence opened up for him, allowing him the shortest trip to the wire.

Hard Aces, despite not running hard throughout the race’s entirety, was in an all-out drive to hold off Hoppertunity. His true colors were exposed in his past two efforts when he ran against Classic contenders Beholder and Smooth Roller.

Hard Aces is, ahem, hard to like.

9. Gleneagles

Gregory Bull/Associated Press

Odds: 20-1

Notable Wins: Group 1 St. James’s Palace Stakes

Analysis: Enter the resident European horse taking his stab at the Classic. The last European shooter to win the Classic was Raven’s Pass in 2008. That made sense given the Cushion Track Santa Anita employed at the time, which had a grassy play to it.

Trainer Aidan O’Brien, the Todd Pletcher of Europe, looks to win that elusive Classic—his 14th try—with Gleneagles. It’s hard to endorse Gleneagles as his chance, but O’Brien doesn’t run in this race unless he has a chance to win, and he has finished second with Giant’s Causeway, Galileo, Declaration of War and Henrythenavigator.

Writes The BloodHorse.com’s Steve Haskin:

"

If there’s one thing O’Brien has proven, there isn’t an American dirt horse, no matter how talented, he’s ever been afraid to compete against in the Classic, and that includes Curlin, Zenyatta, Tiznow, Bernardini, Invasor, Saint Liam, Fusaichi Pegasus, Medaglia d’Oro, Street Sense, and War Emblem, so he’s hardly going to cower in fear over facing American Pharoah and Beholder.

"

So maybe it’s not so far-fetched an idea.

8. Effinex

Odds: 15-1

Notable Wins: Won the Grade 2 Suburban Handicap

Analysis: Effinex is your classic closer. He loves a fast pace, and that’s what he got to win the ’Burban back on July 4.

The opening quarter-mile shook out in 22.80, allowing Effinex to sweep up the leaders. All the more impressive was how Effinex thwarted a re-rallying Tonalist, a multiple Grade 1 winner and, most recently, winner of the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup.

“During the stretch run,” said trainer Jimmy Jerkens in a New York Racing Association (NYRA) release back in July, “I was just happy he was going to run good. If he got beat by Tonalist, that wasn't going to be a crime. And then when he gutted it out, golly, and [jockey] Junior [Alvarado] got the stick over in his left hand, and that's what made the difference.” 

If there’s pace and American Pharoah bounces under the weight of this season, Effinex could figure in the exotics. Think third or fourth with this grinder.

7. Smooth Roller

Odds: 15-1

Notable Wins: Grade 1 Awesome Again Stakes

Analysis: Smooth Roller, a four-year-old son of Hard Spun, has four career starts, three of them wins.

In the Awesome Again, Smooth Roller stalked the pace-setting Bayern (the 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic champ) and opened up turning for home. It’s the perfect running style to win at 1 ¼ miles. It’s his ace in the hole.

Being able to sit off the pace will be paramount for this inexperienced horse. He’ll have company, but he should be able to dictate his own spot in the race and then see if he can keep up with Beholder and American Pharoah.

6. Frosted

Odds: 15-1

Notable Wins: Grade 2 Pennsylvania Derby, Grade 1 Wood Memorial

Analysis: Frosted always shows up.

Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, who won this race in 2006 with Invasor, Frosted can say he ran against American Pharoah three times and ran respectably. He finished second in the Belmont Stakes, fourth in the Kentucky Derby and third in the Travers (behind Keen Ice and American Pharoah).

In eight starts this year, Frosted has two wins, three seconds and one third.

He’s a versatile colt, so he can run close to the pace or a bit farther off. He does his best work while closer to the pace, but can run from farther back if the race dictates those terms to him.

Frosted showed an explosive turn of foot in the Penn Derby when he switched leads. If he can keep that in the chamber when he’s ready to fire, he could be dangerous horse and worthy of the exotics.

5. Tonalist

Odds: 6-1

Notable Wins: Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup

Analysis: If the Breeders’ Cup were at Belmont Park, Tonalist would be the heavy second choice. He loves Belmont. Eats it up. But we’re at Keeneland, where he’ll still be a live shot to win this race if things shake out his way.

In 2015, Tonalist finished second to Honor Code in a smashing Met Mile, second to Effinex in the Suburban and third to Honor Code in the Whitney Stakes.

Unfortunately for Tonalist, he gets a full dose of Honor Code yet again. What does that mean? Tonalist is probably the third- to fourth-best horse in this field, and if the pace is hot—which it will have to be for him—maybe he gets up for a piece.

His problem is the speed on the front end is really good speed. And that could take him out of the mix with horses like Beholder and American Pharoah left to battle it out in the final furlong.

4. Keen Ice

Odds: 12-1

Notable Wins: Grade 1 Travers Stakes

Analysis: American Pharoah has one loss in 2015. Who beat him? Keen Ice at the Graveyard of Champions—Saratoga.

Sure, American Pharoah was due for a loss and if you had to pick one, it was definitely going to be the Travers. Keen Ice arrived for the title bout in late August.

Keen Ice is a one-run, late-running son of Curlin, the 2007 Classic winner. Then again, while beating Pharoah, Keen Ice showed he has more than one pitch in his arsenal.

"If you noticed, we put him in the race a lot closer to the lead,” trainer Dale Romans said in Jonathan Lintner’s Courier-Journal story, "and it didn't take any of his finish kick away, and I think that'll be very important for this race."

Romans has never been one to play games. He tells it how it is, so expect Keen Ice to be forwardly placed and in the mix early.

3. Honor Code

Odds: 6-1

Notable Wins: Grade 1 Metropolitan Handicap and Grade 1 Whitney Stakes

Analysis: Honor Code recently whipped through a four-furlong drill in 48 and change for trainer Shug McGaughey, signaling that this four-year-old son of A.P. Indy is tight and ready.

Honor Code has won at one turn, and he answered the two-turn question by taking the Whitney at Saratoga. Now, can he go two turns at 10 furlongs and win against a field of proven 10-furlong runners?

"I wish they ran the race yesterday," McGaughey said, per Karen Johnson of BloodHorse.com. "I'm looking forward to it. I think it's a terrific race, and I think it will be a true-run race. I hope we get him down there and he does every bit as good as he has done here."

People may flag him for finishing third in the Kelso Handicap in his last-out effort, but a rebound from that performance could put him in the exacta at Keeneland behind either American Pharoah or Beholder.

2. Beholder

Odds: 3-1

Notable Wins: Grade 1 Pacific Classic

Analysis: This mare taking on the boys is THE threat to American Pharoah. While taking on the older horses in the Pacific Classic, jockey Gary Stevens blew by the leaders heading into the turn like they were standing still.

Per Ed Zieralski of the L.A. Times, her trainer, Richard Mandella, said, “Nature didn't make very many like her, ever. That was just amazing. ... We didn't think she would do it quite like that. We thought it was the girls she was picking on."

It’s the most impressive move not involving American Pharoah this year. John Pricci of HorseRaceInsider.com asked a valid question of the second betting choice, “And while she had excuses, is Beholder the same mare outside California, and can she handle competition of this magnitude, by far the toughest in her career, on a surface over which she’s never run?”

That win in the Pacific Classic covered the Classic distance of 10 furlongs, and she handled it with aplomb. She stands to move forward and has a threatening running style to give American Pharoah hell in the final furlong.

1. American Pharoah

Odds: 6-5

Notable Wins: Grade 1 Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes

Analysis: Well, this is it, the horse to beat, an all-time great, the 12th horse in the long storied history of horse racing to win the Triple Crown.

American Pharoah has captivated the racing world, and even some beyond it, with his amazing capacity to cover all distances with a dazzling display of speed and relaxation.

He hasn’t raced since he lost in the Grade 1 Travers, but he’s been training gangbusters and is every bit as good as he was heading into the Haskell Invitational when he made a mockery of those colts.

Justin Zayat, racing manager for Zayat Stables, said in a Breeders’ Cup release:

"

He worked in forty-six, but it was forty-six easy. We’re very, very happy. We could not be happier with him. He’s right on target. He always works well every week so it’s no surprise to us. But we can see that right now he’s in the zone. He’s feeling it, and that’s the feeling he’s giving everyone right now. All systems are go and we’re expecting a huge race from him.

"

This is it for American Pharoah, the final race of a career that delivered on all the hype. He’ll have his work cut out for him because several horses—Keen Ice, Frosted, Beholder, Honor Code and Tonalist—can all take him down.

Pharoah is pure heart, a gentle horse who can throw down the hammer when he must. There’s no reason to save some for later.

He’s the horse to beat and he’ll likely be on the lead looking to wire this field like he did in the Belmont and the Preakness.