College Basketball Teams on the Cusp of Breaking Through at the Start of 2015-16

What's luck got to do with it?

Well, a little bit—or more in some cases—when it comes to college basketball teams breaking through.

This slideshow is all about teams that need to garner a little more good fortune in 2015-16 to get past the misfortune of last year. Maybe it's playing a little better in crunch time. Or it could be not having the opponent play above its standard.

Whatever the case, every team needs a break here or there. Even the wise Ken Pomeroy includes luck as part of his algorithms.

Mind you, winning or losing close games isn't a perfect science. "Luck" as Pomeroy defines it isn't a hard science, either.

"It accounts for performance in close games. Performance in close games is not very predictive. For instance, if a team wins eight close games in a row, it only tells us a little about how they would do in their next close game," the Utah-based Pomeroy told B/R. "Since the ratings are designed to be predictive, they don't give too much credit for winning close games (or blame for losing them). The biggest differences between public perception and my ratings is usually explained by the luck factor."

Luck did some teams good, though. The four top teams from last year's version made the NCAA tournament; 5-of-6; nine of the Top 25. We're talking about Maryland, which surpassed arguably even the heartiest Terrapin fan's expectations last winter. Texas Southern and Wofford were in the mix. West Virginia used some good mojo to work its way up to a No. 5 seed last March.

We'll examine some teams here that were unlucky, and—you guessed it—didn't make the tournament.

So who doesn't want to get lucky this season?

Here's some teams that are, more than anything, trying to get over bad karma. We focused in on teams that didn't make the NCAA tournament and which have a significant number of returning players (and coaches) to have a reasonable expectation of turning last year's setbacks into this year's glory.

And they might even be OK if you said they were a little lucky...

Florida Gators

Chuck Burton/Associated Press

Now, we said up front that we'd mostly consider teams that were coming back intact.

Florida's an odd situation. Billy Donovan is in the NBA and new coach Mike White will have plenty of stuff to live up to.

But the Gators went 16-17 last year and were 347th nationally in luck (out of 351 Division I teams). And they return a worthy enough chunk of last year's roster to warrant inclusion.

Dorian Finney-Smith led the Gators in scoring (13.1 PPG) and rebounding (6.2) last season and is one of three returning starters. The 6'8" forward will be complemented by a good chunk of experience, though Michael Frazier and Eli Carter—who missed a combined dozen games—are past their Gainesville days.

Florida did not participate in a postseason tournament last spring for the first time in 17 years.

Part of that was caused by setbacks in close games. The Gators didn't chomp on everyone down the stretch, going 3-5 in one-possession games (three points or less), including two one-point defeats to Ole Miss. There were also close calls lost to Florida State and Miami early in the season and an overtime defeat to Georgetown.

Turn some of those games around, and Donovan still likely leaves for Oklahoma City—but it's a lot better mood going into this season.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Jeff Chiu/Associated Press

We are featuring a few SEC teams because it was this league that cannibalized itself down the stretch last year.

Vanderbilt is one of those teams that should really be a Top 25-caliber team and a sure thing for the NCAA tournament. It has a likely first-round NBA draft pick in 7-footer Damian Jones and a variety of experience around him. Only guard Shelton Mitchell left after his freshman year to attend Clemson.

That didn't keep SEC-based media from picking the Commodores to finish second in the league. They will have to fare better through the middle slate of league games after dropping seven in a row last year.

Vandy went 21-14, but it was a couple of three-point losses and an OT defeat that had Kevin Stallings' team looking straight in the teeth of the NIT. But this team won 10 of its final 14 games, leaving plenty of optimism that this team lived through the drought and learned.

Vandy won at Ole Miss but basically struggled against the top tier of the SEC. It went 1-6 against the top six teams (ahead in the standings) and 8-3 against everyone below.

TCU Horned Frogs

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

TCU's season involved some rubber gloves, but Big 12 play wasn't a proctology exam as many who follow the Big 12 may have figured.

The Horned Frogs went 18-15, yet didn't get much help in tight games—they were 330th by KenPom's rating in "luck."

It's a little unfair to put TCU here, considering it loses the top three contributors from last year to graduation. Yet we've got to figure Trent Johnson will have this group putting up a fight again—cuts be darned.

Johnson had a masterful schedule that let TCU pick on some no-name opponents, and that even had the Frogs ranked early in the season. Sure, it didn't last. But we all know this sport is largely about confidence.

The young group returning should have it, and realize it doesn't have to be incredibly lucky to be as good or better.

Another step up will be tough as 6'7'' junior Kenrich Williams will miss the entire season with a knee injury.

But we'll leave some optimism for TCU because if it can play hard, stay healthy and give itself a fighting chance, it could catch some Big 12 teams by surprise.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

David Tulis/Associated Press

Georgia Tech's coach has two first names. His team's season could've easily gone two ways, rather than a 12-19 year that finished No. 323 in luck.

But there's reason to believe. That's based on experience, transfers and the Yellow Jackets almost being like sharks last winter—they kept growing back teeth. Even when they were getting kicked in repeatedly during ACC play.

By Jan. 28, six of Tech's seven losses in league games had been by eight or fewer points.

But that day, it slammed an inconsistent Miami team. That ended a seven-game losing streak that featured a double-OT loss to Notre Dame followed four days later by a one-point setback against Syracuse. Another loss came against the Irish, then a bottoming out against Virginia.

But the Jackets weren't quite done, even after an awful two-point home loss to Boston College.

That's when it slammed Miami before getting beat in overtime against eventual Sweet 16 participant North Carolina State.

Point is, going from second to last in the ACC to middle of the pack is a pretty reasonable expectation. Maybe this is a little unfair to consider, but Tech should also be influenced greatly by three transfers: Adam Smith led Virginia Tech in scoring last season (13.4 points per game), while Nick Jacobs (8.4) had impact at Alabama.

Leading scorer Marcus Georges-Hunt leads a group that was pretty darn good defensively, but has to figure out a way to get a few more heartbreaks. It sure had a lot of real-life lessons last winter on what it needed to do to get better. That's not always such a bad thing.

Colorado Buffaloes

Gary Breedlove/Associated Press

Oh, it's just meant to be in Boulder.

The Buffs need to change their fortunes. And they're adding Josh Fortune, a Providence transfer who will be among a highly intact group that simply needs to have more leadership.

Some of that will certainly have to do with getting back a healthy big man, Josh Scott, who missed an eight-game stretch of Pac-12 play last year.

Throw in the volume-shooting Askia Booker, who had no right taking so many shots, and it's hardly a wonder CU went 16-18 and also didn't have a whole lot of KenPom-style luck. It finished No. 273 in the category.

The Buffs were flat-out worn down from Jan. 7-22, losing four games (three on the road) to last year's conference heavy hitters: Utah and Arizona, along with Arizona State and then a two-point home loss to Washington.

Give the Buffs credit, they also lost three early nonleague games by a total of one possession each. One at home, one on a neutral court and one on a true road court.

Only the 6'2'' Booker was a senior. Getting back the 6'10'' Scott is huge in more ways than his height. He averaged 14.5 points, 8.4 rebounds and nearly 2.0 blocks. In the final six games, getting his rhythm back, he was posting an average of 20 points and 11 rebounds.

He was an across-the-board stud last year when available and his presence should gets other involved, too. Like Tory Miller, whose game and body look improved heading into his sophomore year.

Marquette Golden Eagles

Andy Manis/Associated Press

Marquette was 280th on the luck scale. That's about to change, though, with a built-up talent level and a second-year coach who should have a better feel of running the sideline.

Look at Marquette's team website, and freshman forward Henry Ellenson has his picture slathered all around it. And for good reason. He's a top-tier national recruit and chose to stay close to home. Ellenson was a second team all-conference selection already.

But coach Steve Wojciechowski will also benefit from junior center Luke Fischer being back, along with 6'2'' sophomore Duane Wilson, who was the Golden Eagles' second-best contributor last season. The top one was Matt Carlino, a fifth-year transfer from BYU who was more or less a volume-shooting stopgap as Marquette knew it didn't have a whole lot of scoring on its roster.

That should improve this year. Losses to Big East foes DePaul, Xavier, St. John's and Xavier early in league play were all within two possessions. Then came an OT loss to the Hoyas and another to Butler. Marquette wound up losing six of its seven final regular-season games, its narrow window for success being completely shut after that brutal stretch of close defeats.

Wojo's growth plus Ellenson's arrival should build quite positively on a 13-19 season that saw very few big breaks.

Columbia Lions

Fred Beckham/Associated Press

All right, you're probably wondering two things here.

Why are we talking about the Ivy League? And do Ivy kids—even basketball players—really believe in luck?

All we can say is, both of these things matter. Especially this season with a team like Columbia, which was recently picked to finish second behind Yale.

Think about it: All Ivy teams get is the regular season to chase that NCAA tournament bid (no postseason conference tournament). So every loss is felt that much more.

Last year the Lions were 336th by KenPom's luck standard. Yale checked in at No. 112.

Columbia went 13-15, but more importantly just 5-9 in Ivy games. It went 2-3 in games decided by two possessions.

But it should be considerably better this year. Senior guard Maodo Lo (18.4 PPG, 4.4 RPG) looked strong during the summer at the World University Games playing for Germany. Senior forward Alex Rosenberg (16.0 PPG, 3.7 RPG in 2013-14) is back after missing all of last season with a foot injury. 

Wake Forest

Chuck Burton/Associated Press

Take one look at Wake Forest's roster and it's a wonder if Danny Manning can remember all the names, let alone build on a decent year one of turning the Demon Deacons into a competitive outfit.

There are 19 players (of course, some are walk-ons), even after an August dismissal of spot-producer Madison Jones in August.

Now, can this many guys rebuild Wake into something that can do a lot better than 5-13 in the ACC?

It's certainly possible, considering all of the players returning—if it can just get over the hump in some close games.

Look no further than a devastating four-game stretch last year in league play. All losses, three on the road, two required a combined three overtimes (Syracuse and Florida State). But then Manning's team kept its chin up and won three of the next four, including some close calls against Virginia Tech, North Carolina State and Miami.

Two of the final seven games were one-point losses. So flip a few of those into winners and you're talking about a solid NIT team with plenty of room for growth—and not just in roster size.

Wake returns its top four contributors from last year and a solid recruiting class that should give it some more muscle and attitude.

Wake showed many times last year it's back to belonging. Now, it just has to keep buying in and realize it doesn't need one of Manning's old-fashioned "Miracle" runs to make things happen.

UConn Huskies

Jessica Hill/Associated Press

The hoop gods can be fickle. One year, you're on your knees in thankful prayer—getting hot at the right time and winning a national title.

Another year, you're on your knees in despair—wondering how to get past one-point early-season losses to Texas and Yale.

UConn coach Kevin Ollie has to feel like he's seen it all. What he didn't see last year was any luck, registering a paltry No. 318 in that category.

UConn last winter basically either won big or lost close.

It's a group that can, and should, learn. Starting with sophomore Daniel Hamilton, who can do even better than 10.9 points, 7.6 rebounds and nearly 4.0 assists.

Ollie brings in a solid recruiting class, as well as Seton Hall transfer Sterling Gibbs (16.3 points, 3.8 assists, 2.1 rebounds and 1.2 steals per game).

All of this should bring UConn opponents to their knees, and the Huskies likely over the hump and back in the NCAA tournament.

Texas A&M Aggies

Mark Humphrey/Associated Press

Texas A&M coach Billy Kennedy would welcome a return to the NCAA tournament with open arms, similar to the pose pictured above.

The 51-year-old has battled early-stage Parkinson's disease and amassed a respectable 71-61 record in College Station, including 21-12 last year when the team team was on the NCAA tournament bubble for most of February and March.

Perhaps winning that double-overtime game against Kentucky would've given the Aggies their first NCAA bid under Kennedy. Or not losing the final two regular-season games (to Florida and Alabama) by a total of five points would've changed the NIT future.

An intact roster and a healthy Danuel House should propel A&M in a more balanced SEC that will have all sorts of teams chasing NCAA at-large bids.