Eagles vs. Panthers: Full Carolina Game Preview

Are the Carolina Panthers (5-0) coming off of their most impressive victory in the Ron Rivera era?

The Panthers were seven-point underdogs entering the game against Seattle, and they’ve only managed to overcome one larger line since Rivera took charge—last year against New Orleans, per Pro Football Reference.

When you add in the history the Panthers have had against the Seahawks, you get a victory that should, at least for now, quiet some of the franchise’s doubters.

Their reward is their first primetime game since last November, as they will go up against the Philadelphia Eagles (3-3) on Sunday Night Football. It will be the first chance for most of the country to see the Panthers in action, as they continue to try to dispel the perception that they are the worst undefeated team in football.

Last year, of course, the Panthers were the worst team to make the playoffs with a 7-8-1 record. Conversely, the Eagles were the worst team to miss the playoffs, finishing at 10-6. In a world without divisions, the Eagles would have slipped in as the NFC’s sixth seed, while the Panthers would have stayed home in Charlotte for the winter.

Further backing up that sense of unfairness is the fact that the Eagles crushed the Panthers the last time Carolina was featured in primetime.

On November 10 last season on Monday Night Football, the Eagles dominated the Panthers to the tune of 45-21. Darren Sproles had a couple touchdowns, Mark Sanchez threw for two more scores, and Cam Newton found himself hitting the turf nine times as the Panthers fell to 3-6-1.

Of course, this isn’t 2014. Unlike last year’s Panthers, this year’s edition has a good defense and an above-average offense entering this game. They’ve also been the most consistent team in football, per Football Outsider’s DVOA rankings.

When they faced the Eagles last season, Carolina was struggling in all three aspects of the game, as this was before they found the rushing game that led them to the playoffs last season. They also have the luxury of playing this game at home, rather than in Philadelphia, which helps.

The Eagles, meanwhile, are a little stronger than their 3-3 record suggests. The have one of the top defenses in football this season, and it’s been enough to drag their below-average offense to a .500 record.

They’ve switched quarterbacks, have a new starting running back and generally remade their offense this past offseason, only to be just about as impressive as they were at this point last season. It’s not what you would expect out of a Chip Kelly-coached team, but it so far seems to be the truth.

The Eagles are coming off of a fairly demonstrative victory over the New York Giants last Monday night, and hope to keep that momentum through the short week into this matchup.

According to OddsShark, Carolina’s been installed as three-point favorites in this game, which is about what you’d expect from two evenly matched teams at the Bank of America Stadium. In short, it says that the perception is the 6-0 Panthers and 3-3 Eagles are about the same quality of team.

Riding an NFL-high nine-game regular-season winning streak, and looking to set the franchise record for best start to a season, it looks like the Panthers are going to have to try to prove once again they are a “deserved” undefeated team. A big win in primetime could go quite far in finally silencing some of their doubters.

Whichever way you slice it, this is the game of the week here in Week 7.

Location: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC

Time: 8:30 p.m. ET

TV: NBC, with Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth on the call.

Week 6 Results and Recap

Stephen Brashear/Associated Press

The Panthers finally managed to beat the Seattle Seahawks last week.

After five straight losses, the Panthers finally took down the Seattle Seahawks, thanks to a thrilling come-from-behind drive engineered by Cam Newton in one of his signature moments as an NFL starting quarterback.

Newton and the Panthers’ offense struggled to get anything going in the first half, but began to move the ball well after halftime.

The Seahawks’ defense had no answers for Greg Olsen, and Newton hit him with 32 seconds left in the game to give the Panthers a 27-23 victory.

Football Outsiders’ Cian Fahey said it was the Panthers “statement win”, and Newton has been “playing to an MVP level” this season. While his overall performance in the game was only average overall, Newton stepped up in the crucial moments at the end of the game to lead his team to victory.

Defensively, the Panthers’ pass rush got to Russell Wilson early and often. Kawann Short provided eight pressures himself up the gut, per PFF, while Mario Addison led the ends with six pressures of his own.

All in all, while the Panthers only sacked Wilson four times, they totaled 30 pressures, forcing him out of the pocket and into poor situations. As much as anything else, that kept the game close enough for Newton to be able to pull off his last-minute heroics.

On Monday, the Eagles and Giants played a sloppy game, which the Eagles won 27-7.  DeMarco Murray ran for 109 yards and a touchdown, and the defense picked Eli Manning off twice, with Nolan Carroll returning one for a score of his own.

Combined, the teams had seven turnovers and 21 penalties. The difference, primarily, was that the Eagles capitalized on the Giants’ mistakes, while the Giants couldn’t do the same to the Eagles.

Sam Bradford was given plenty of time to throw the ball, as usual, and, as usual, didn’t perform great. According to ESPN, Bradford has been pressured at the lowest rate of any quarterback in football this season, as his offensive line has held up well.

However, Bradford still has the second-most interceptions thrown this season, with nine. It didn’t hurt them in this game, though, as the Giants couldn’t turn any of Philadelphia’s four turnovers into points.

NFC South Standings

Team	Record	Pct.	PF	PA	Streak
Carolina Panthers	5-0	1.000	135	94	W5
Atlanta Falcons	5-1	.833	183	143	L1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2-3	.400	110	148	W1
New Orleans Saints	2-4	.333	134	164	W1

The Panthers were helped by an inner-division game this week, as the Saints upset the Falcons on Thursday Night Football to give Atlanta their first loss of the season. 

Drew Brees threw for 312 yards, with tight end Ben Watson setting a career-high 127 yards receiving and a touchdown to give the Saints a 31-21 victory.

It both gives the Panthers sole possession of first place in the division and re-sparks the Saints’ season which was hanging by a thread. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers had their bye week.

The Panthers can get some more help on Sunday. In the early slate of games, the Falcons travel to Tennessee to take on the Titans, who are sitting on a four-game losing streak and may have just lost starting quarterback Marcus Mariota. Either Mariota or Zach Mettenberger will try to hand the Falcons their second loss of the season, which would ensure the Panthers remained on top of the division regardless of what happens on Sunday night.

NFC Playoff Picture

Team	Record	Pct.	Notes
Green Bay Packers	6-0	1.000
Carolina Panthers	5-0	1.000
Arizona Cardinals	4-2	.667
Philadelphia Eagles	3-3	.500	Ahead of NYG via head-to-head
Atlanta Falcons	5-1	.833
Minnesota Vikings	3-2	.600

As it stands right now, the Panthers would receive a first-round bye in the playoffs. No matter what the results of Sunday’s contests, the Panthers will remain in playoff position, though they have the misfortune to play in the only division in football with two teams with a win percentage above .800.

They also control their own fate for home field advantage, as they face their fellow undefeated Green Bay Packers in Week 9.

News and Notes

Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images

Jonathan Stewart has been picking up some hard yardage this season.

Jonathan Stewart “Playing Like a Madman”

Jonathan Stewart is not having his most productive season in history, according to the numbers. He sits at 298 yards rushing, which puts him in 19th so far this season.

Admittedly, he has played one less game than many of the people ahead of him thanks to the bye week, and his 59.6 yards per game raises him into 16th place. Still, it’s not the most impressive raw statistics ever put up.

Still, that shouldn’t be confused with Stewart having a poor season. As ESPN’s David Newton points out, Stewart’s been fighting through small holes and picking up tough yardage, noting that against Seattle, he was “relentless, and got every inch out of his 20 carries” against one of the top run defenses in football.

“You could tell that every single snap he was going to get as many yards as he possibly could, every single time," right tackle Mike Remmers said. “It’s really inspiring for the offensive line to go out there and give it their all, because we love that guy."

According to Pro Football Focus, Stewart has forced 20 missed tackles in the running game and one more as a receiver, putting him behind only Carlos Hyde among running backs. He may not have as many yards as some other backs have this year, but he’s worked harder to get those yards. He is also the highest-rated pass blocker among running backs, proving his ability to contribute in other ways as well.

Those kinds of tough yards and pass-blocking contributions may not lead to a Pro Bowl berth or anything of that nature, but they are a key part of what makes Stewart so valuable to the team.

Panthers Sticking to “Us-Against-the-World” Mentality

Throughout the first four weeks, the Panthers were generally not taken seriously by NFL analysts.

While they went undefeated, it was against a fairly underwhelming schedule. The offense hadn’t really clicked, they had lucked out of playing against players like Brees, and the general consensus was they were a good story, but would lose a game in the not-too-distant future.

The win over the Seahawks, however, has begun to change that. They’re beginning to get mentioned highly in power rankings and by national media.

The team that has started a combined 5-11 in the first month of Ron Rivera’s first four seasons now finds itself as favorites. Will that affect the Panthers’ underdog mentality? Not according to Rivera, per the Charlotte Observer:

"

It’s not going to go away. I’m not going to let it. That’s the truth.

We have to have something to play for, something to shoot for. I think part of it is our guys’ mentality. We do have a lot to prove and we’ve got to continue to go there.

I know there’s going to be a lot of noise now because of who we are and what’s been happening and the positivity that’s going on. We can’t focus on the noise. We’ve got to focus on the game.

"

Of course, what else are you going to expect Rivera to say? The team could beat its next four opponents 60-0 each, and Rivera will still say the same basic things—that’s just standard coach-speak.

Here’s some fact for Rivera to use to try to maintain that underdog mentality—the Panthers have yet to beat a team with a winning record. The Seahawks are just 2-4, as are the Saints and Texans. The Buccaneers are 2-3 and the Jaguars are 1-5.  Add it all together, and the Panthers’ average opponent has a winning percentage of just .310 so far.

However, that’s still better than the Broncos’ .294, and comparable to the Packers’ or Bengals’ .314.  It’s still behind New England’s .448.

At a certain point, the phrase “worst undefeated team” gets less emphasis on “worst” and more emphasis on “undefeated.” After all, the 1972 Dolphins were, at some point, the “worst undefeated team.”

If the Panthers keep winning, they’re going to eventually have to come to grips with being the favorites.  It’s a new and exciting problem this early in the season for Carolina.

A Film Breakdown of Carolina’s Comeback

If the team doesn’t want to linger over the big victory over Seattle and simply move on to their upcoming opponent, that’s fine. Fans, however, may want to linger a little while over one of the larger wins in recent franchise history.

Over at Football Outsiders, Cian Fahey has put together a film analysis of the Panthers’ thrilling comeback.

He specifically highlights Newton’s long pass to Greg Olsen to set up the first touchdown of the comeback after stepping around pressure, as well as a series of reads, timing and aggressiveness to set up the game-winning score on the final drive.

He wrote:

"

What really stood out from this game from the Panthers' perspective was Newton's ability to flip the switch when needed most. His confidence didn't disappear even though he struggled through the first three quarters of the game.

Over the final two drives, excluding a spike, he completed 11 of 12 passes for 89 yards and a touchdown with four rushing yards. His one incompletion was that long drop by Funchess.

"

It’s a good look back at not just the fact that Newton succeeded late in the game, but why and how. 

This Panthers’ team wouldn’t be half as good as they are without the talented Newton playing quarterback, and his ability to get the maximum value out of a relatively unheralded group of players around him.

Injuries

Stephen Brashear/Associated Press

Shaq Thompson's MCL sprain will keep him out of this contest.

The Eagles and Panthers come into this contest roughly equal in their injury reports, with neither side having a demonstrative advantage over the other.

Panthers Injuries

Player	Pos.	Injury	Wed. Practice
A.J. Klein	LB	Concussion	Full
Jared Allen	DE	Back	Limited
Teddy Williams	CB	Concussion	Limited
Richie Brockel	TE	Hamstring	None
Daryl Williams	OT	Knee	None
Dwan Edwards	DT	Ankle	None
Shaq Thompson	LB	Knee	None

• A.J. Klein was back fully at practice this week, after missing last week’s game with a concussion suffered against Tampa Bay. The fact that he was a full participant in practice is a positive sign, but Steve Reed reports that Klein still needs the final clearance from a doctor in order to play on Sunday.
• Jared Allen returned to practice on a limited basis after missing last week with a pinched nerve.  It seems fair to say he is on the way back, as he says his leg feels “100 percent better” than it did the week before, per Jonathan Jones. Mario Addison would pick up the start if Allen can’t go.
• Teddy Williams picked up a concussion on a vicious tackle against Seattle, and was limited in practice.  He is in the concussion protocol and also needs to be cleared by an independent physician. Don’t be surprised if he misses this week.
• Richie Brockel is still out with his hamstring troubles. The Panthers worked out James Casey on Tuesday, per Adam Caplan, which could be a sign Brockel’s long-term availability is in question.
• Daryl Williams remains out with his sprained MCL. The team is not rushing him back thanks to the relative solid play they’ve had at offensive tackle so far. The Black and Blue Review reports he hopes to be back next week.
• Shaq Thompson suffered a frightening-looking knee injury at the end of Sunday’s game, but it turns out to only be a minor MCL sprain, according to Ian Rapoport. Thompson will miss at least this week’s game.  If Klein is ready, he will get the start instead of Thompson, with Adarius Glanton being a possibility on the practice squad if neither can go.

Eagles Injuries

Player	Pos.	Injury	Wed. Practice
Josh Huff	WR	Knee	Full
Mychal Kendricks	LB	Hamstring	Full
Brandon Bair	DE	Groin	Limited
Kiko Alonso	LB	Knee	Limited
Riley Cooper	WR	Knee	None
Nelson Agholor	WR	Ankle	None
DeMeco Ryans	LB	Hamstring	None

• Josh Huff briefly left Monday’s game with a knee injury, but returned to finish the game. As he was full in practice this week, there’s no reason to expect him to miss time now.
• Mychal Kendricks aggravated an outstanding hamstring injury in Week 4 against Washington, and has missed time ever since then. He was a full participant in practice, however. The Eagles say they are “taking things day by day”, but it looks like he’ll be good to go.
• Brandon Bair left that same Week 4 game with a groin injury, and hasn’t been back since. He’s working his way back, but it’s far from a certainty he’ll suit up on Sunday night.
• Kiko Alonso had his knee scoped back in September, per Rapoport, but his ACL is intact. Early estimates had his return more in November than now, but he has returned to the field on a limited basis.  He’s still likely a couple weeks away, and with the Eagles entering a bye next week, they may opt to keep him on the sidelines for one more week to allow the knee to heal. Rookie Jordan Hicks has been getting more work while Alonso and Kendricks have been out.
• Riley Cooper banged his knee against the Giants, but returned to the game, so it was surprising to see him held out of practice on Wednesday. He should be good to go, but Jordan Matthews and Miles Austin might get more snaps if Cooper is out, especially considering…
• ….Nelson Agholor also missed practice thanks to an ankle injury he suffered in Week 5 against New Orleans.  It’s not looking good for his availability for Carolina.
• DeMeco Ryans left the Giants game with a hamstring injury.  After the game, Ryans insinuated that he could have reentered the game if necessary, according to the Philadelphia Inquirer.  However, he did not practice on Wednesday. Defensive coordinator Bill Davis indicated that Ryans should be good to go on Sunday, per 24-7 Sports.  Kendricks and Hicks would likely get more work if Ryans suffers a setback.

Key Matchups

Michael Perez/Associated Press

Jason Peters is one of the top offensive tackles in football.

RB Jonathan Stewart vs. DE Fletcher Cox and the Run Defense

The Philadelphia Eagles are allowing just 3.5 yards per rushing attempt, second to only the Jacksonville Jaguars league-wide.

Opposing teams have picked up only 94.2 yards per game against the team, and the only rushing touchdown they’ve allowed was a one-yard rush by quarterback Kirk Cousins in Week 4—running backs have yet to find the end zone against them.

Football Outsiders ranks Philly’s run defense as the second-best in football, just behind the New York Jets.

There are two prongs to Philadelphia’s run defense. The defensive line, anchored by Fletcher Cox and Bennie Logan, prevent short-yardage runs from succeeding by overpowering the opponent’s offensive line. They’ve allowed only 43 percent of “power runs”—third- and fourth-down carries with two or less yards to go—to succeed, third-best mark in the league, according to FO.

On attempts in less obvious run situations, the second level and linebackers step up to prevent any huge gains, with Mychal Kendricks and Brandon Graham stopping things from the linebacker position and Walter Thurmond and Malcolm Jenkins providing support from the safety position.

Add it all up, and the Eagles have only allowed 13 carries of 10 yards or more, good for seventh-best in the league.  It’s a very tough run defense.

The Panthers, on the other hand, have recorded 20 carries of 10 yards or more, and have a truly great rushing attack. The last time the Eagles faced an attack as strong as the Panthers was Week 1 against Atlanta—a loss in which Atlanta recorded over 100 yards on the ground. In fact, in all three Eagles losses, their opponents have topped 100 yards rushing, though there’s a cause-and-effect question there.

It’s a matchup of strength against strength, and it will be up to the interior offensive line, especially Ryan Kalil and Andrew Norwell, to punch holes against the tough Philadelphia run defense. Whichever team wins that battle probably wins this game.

OT Michael Oher vs. LB Brandon Graham

After a slow start to the season, Brandon Graham has had great success rushing the quarterback over the past month.

According to Pro Football Focus, he has 18 quarterback pressures in his last four games, to go along with seven defensive stops and solid results when pressed into coverage—in short, an all-around player.

He was also responsible for 1.5 sacks against the Panthers the last time these two teams played, and a thorn in Carolina’s side. He will likely be Michael Oher’s primary assignment come Sunday, as he attempts to keep his quarterback upright.

The Panthers stood no chance against the Eagles last time they played because Cam Newton spent more time on the turf than upright in the backfield. However, Oher has been a serviceable player at left tackle, which is far more than can be said of last year’s left tackle, Byron Bell.

Oher’s been a low-quality starter at the position and actually quite solid in pass protection, overall—he hasn’t been able to get much of a push in the run game, but he’s only allowed 11 pressures all season, per PFF.  That’s a major step up.

Obviously, the Panthers can’t allow nine sacks again and hope to win this one—that’s only happened 10 times in NFL history, most recently in 1999 to Damon Huard and the Miami Dolphins. It’ll be important for Oher and company to keep a clean pocket for Carolina to win.

DE Jared Allen or Mario Addison vs. OT Jason Peters

Jason Peters is one of the top offensive tackles in football. He has gone 232 snaps without giving up a sack, which is the ninth-longest active streak among left tackles, per PFF. 

He hasn’t even allowed so much as a quarterback hurry since Week 4 against Washington, and the last time he let his quarterback be knocked to the turf was in Week 2 against Dallas.  He’s a somewhat immovable object, in other words.

The Panthers traded for Jared Allen to try to spark their pass rush from the end position, but his back injury has kept him from really performing so far; it’s actually been undrafted rookie Ryan Delaire who has looked more promising at right end.

Allen looks like he could return this week, but the Panthers might still try a rotation at the position to try to get past Peters.

They may have more luck targeting Allen Barbre at left guard if they hope to pressure Sam Bradford’s blind side.

X-Factors

Elaine Thompson/Associated Press

Kony Ealy finally got a quarterback last week.

Carolina X-Factor: LE Kony Ealy

People awaiting a massive breakout year for Kony Ealy have so far been disappointed.

Ealy has yet to record a sack, and last week against Seattle was the first time he’s actually managed to reach the quarterback, getting a hand on Russell Wilson. He’s been mostly quiet all year long, though better than he was as a rookie at this point.

He might have an opportunity this week to make a splash. Lane Johnson, the starting right tackle for Philadelphia, has had his fair share of problems this season. His nadir was allowing three sacks Trent Murphy and Preston Smith against Washington in Week 4, but he’s had some general issues stopping pass rushers the past month.

He had a clean slate against the Giants, so perhaps he’s back to his normal self—or it could be a one-week aberration. Ealy should not be afraid to test Johnson early and often—this could be a big week for the second-year player.

Philadelphia X-Factor: FS Malcolm Jenkins

We mentioned Jenkins when we talked about Philadephia’s run defense, but he’s also done a very good job as the deep cover man for the Eagles this season, ranking as PFF’s best cover safety in the league through six weeks.

His raw numbers don’t look that great, but that’s only because he’s targeted so frequently—he’s thrown at once every 8.1 snaps he’s in coverage so far this season.

Jenkins has done a good job of keeping the ball in front of him and making key tackles all season long. He also leads all Eagles with 41 tackles and has forced three fumbles this season.

As the deep man in the secondary, he’ll be responsible for keeping both Ted Ginn and Greg Olsen in check.

Of the two, Olsen is the bigger threat—he had a field day against Seattle, and was a key part of the upset.  Football Outsiders ranks Philadelphia as the fifth-best pass defense, but only the 14th best on deep passes.  It will be up to Jenkins to keep Carolina from breaking the Eagles’ back with the deep ball.

Prediction: Panthers 24, Eagles 21

Matt Rourke/Associated Press

Luke Kuechly and the Panthers should go to 6-0 against the Eagles.

While the win in Seattle was a big deal, this is the more bread-and-butter kind of matchup that separates teams fighting for a playoff spot from teams who expect to make the playoffs.

This is a home game against a solid opponent—both teams would be in the playoffs if the season ended today. This is the sort of game teams like the Panthers want to be win.

The Panthers haven’t had great success against the Eagles historically, with just one win in their last five matchups, stretching back to 2004. That’s ancient history by NFL standards, however, and these aren’t the same teams that played an unexciting blowout last season.

Yes, this is a team that sacked the Panthers nine times in their last matchup—but Trent Cole isn’t on the Eagles anymore, and the Panthers have swapped out both offensive tackles since then. 

More immediately relevant is Sam Bradford’s inability to not throw interceptions despite a lack of a pass rush, and that sounds precisely like what Carolina’s defense can capitalize on.

Expect Philadelphia to be able to do little to nothing through the air in this one, forcing them to rely on a ground game that’s just been average so far this year. They’ll have some success in that arena, but I don’t think it’s going to be enough.

The Panthers have allowed just 15.2 points per game in their last nine regular season matchups—all wins.  They just showed they could move the ball when it mattered against a top defense last week in Seattle. They get to play the game at home, and they get Philadelphia coming off of a short week.

Philadelphia is better than their 3-3 record indicates, so it’s not safe to just chalk this one up as a win ahead of time.

Still, when the dust clears on Sunday night, I expect the Panthers to still remain among the ranks of the unbeaten.

Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the Carolina Panthers.  Follow him @BryKno on Twitter.