6 Bold Predictions for San Francisco 49ers' Week 7 Matchup

I predict quarterback Colin Kaepernick will be the San Francisco 49ers’ leading rusher Thursday night against the Seattle Seahawks.

Carlos Hyde, San Francisco’s starting running back, has an injured foot that is forcing him to miss portions of practice each week. The foot clearly affected Hyde against the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday—once he crumpled to the ground behind the line of scrimmage before anyone touched him.

Now, Hyde has just three days to rest the foot before his next game. How functional will he really be?

If he plays on Thursday—he’s questionable, per the Santa Rosa Press Democrat—don’t expect him to play well. Kaepernick will be the deciding factor in the 49ers’ running game. He will rush for 80 yards.

That’s bold prediction No. 1. Here are five more.

The 49ers Will Use a “Big Nickel” Defense Most of the Game

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The Seahawks offense mostly uses “11 Personnel”—one running back, one tight end and three wide receivers. On Thursday, look for the Seahawks offense to switch things up and mostly use “12 personnel”—one running back, two tight ends and two wide receivers.

Seattle needs to get Marshawn Lynch going—he’s averaging just 3.3 yards per carry this season—and a second tight end will give the offense an extra blocker in the running game.

In the passing game, the second tight end will chip the Niners’ best pass-rusher, Aaron Lynch. The Seahawks’ putrid offensive line needs all the help it can get.

To counter the Seahawks’ “12 Personnel” formations, the 49ers will use a “Big Nickel” defense. Essentially, that means replacing inside linebacker Michael Wilhoite with safety Jaquiski Tartt.

This substitution will allow the Niners to use their base front, which is strong against the run, while having someone in the middle of the field fast enough to cover tight end Jimmy Graham.

RB Marshawn Lynch Will Gain Fewer Than 75 Rushing Yards

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The Seahawks’ starting running back Marshawn Lynch has been hampered by a hamstring injury this season, which is one reason he is averaging just 3.3 yards per carry.

But Lynch has an extra incentive to run hard this Thursday. Lynch is a Bay Area native—he grew up in Oakland—and is coming home to play in front of his friends and family. He wants to put on a show.

Unfortunately for him, he’s running behind the worst offensive line the NFL. So he can run as hard as he likes—he still won’t go anywhere. He will get hit in the backfield almost every time he carries the ball.

Lynch will rush 20 times—Seattle won’t give up on him—but he’ll gain no more than 75 yards on the ground.

TE Jimmy Graham Will Gain Fewer Than 50 Receiving Yards

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Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse, the Seahawks’ starting wide receivers, are solid, but so are the Niners’ starting cornerbacks, Tramaine Brock and Kenneth Acker.

Those corners won’t need safety help to cover Seattle’s receivers, just as they didn’t need safety help to cover the Green Bay Packers’ receivers Week 4. Brock and Acker’s stellar performance allowed the Niners to bracket slot receiver Randall Cobb and shut him down.

San Francisco will do the same thing to tight end Jimmy Graham. The Niners will bracket him at all times—Jaquiski Tartt underneath and Eric Reid or Antoine Bethea over the top. Quarterback Russell Wilson will have to force passes into double coverage to get Graham the ball.

Expect Graham to gain fewer than 50 receiving yards and the 49ers to get three coverage sacks Thursday night.

K Phil Dawson Will Make Four Field Goals

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The 49ers are scoring touchdowns just 36.8 percent of the time they reach the red zone this season. That ranks 30th out of 32 offenses in the NFL.

Don’t expect the Niners’ red-zone problems to magically go away Thursday night against the Seahawks defense. Seattle is familiar with San Francisco’s red-zone attack—offensive coordinator Geep Chryst was the Niners’ red-zone coordinator the past four seasons under head coach Jim Harbaugh.

To beat the Seahawks, Niners kicker Phil Dawson will have to make a lot of field goals, and I predict he’ll make four.

The 49ers Will Beat the Seahawks

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By shutting down Marshawn Lynch, the 49ers defense also will shut down Russell Wilson, who relies on a good running game for his play-action and pocket-movement plays to be successful. He is not a classic drop-back passer.

He will not be able to take advantage of the Niners’ biggest weakness on defense. San Francisco has given up quite a few catches to running backs underneath this season, because both NaVorro Bowman and Michael Wilhoite, the starting inside linebackers, are liabilities in coverage.

But, the Seahawks’ running backs aren’t dangerous receivers. Lynch has a bad hamstring, and his backup, Thomas Rawls, has caught just one pass this season.

Seattle’s offense will struggle, and the Niners will win 19-16.

Follow @grantcohn.