Texas A&M vs. Ole Miss Complete Game Preview
What looked last week like one of the marquee games of the season has instead taken a much different tone.
After Texas A&M lost to Alabama and Ole Miss lost to Memphis, the Week 8 matchup between the Aggies and the Rebels is no longer a critical College Football Playoff qualifier; it's a game in which the loser leaves town.
Both teams are still ranked in the Associated Press poll—Texas A&M at No. 15, Ole Miss at No. 24—but whoever loses Saturday will likely drop out. Ole Miss won last year's meeting 35-20, but that was with a far better defense and against former Aggies quarterback Kenny Hill.
Presumably, Kyle Allen is an upgrade from Hill, but he looked worse against the Crimson Tide last weekend. Kevin Sumlin's team played careless, sloppy football, but if it rectifies those issues against the Rebels, it still has a clear path toward a playoff berth.
It just no longer has a margin for error.
Date: Saturday, October 24
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Location: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium; Oxford, Mississippi
TV: ESPN
Line: Ole Miss -6, according to Odds Shark
Texas A&M Keys to Victory
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Protect the Football
This one is so obvious I almost didn't write it. The Aggies committed four turnovers against Alabama, including a historic trio of pick-sixes from Allen. The biggest shame? Outside of those massive, spectrum-altering turnovers, the Aggies actually played pretty well.
"If not for a hilarious amount of turnover damage, A&M would have had an excellent chance to win," Football Study Hall's Bill Connelly wrote in his recap. The same might go on Saturday at Ole Miss.
Win the Strength vs. Strength Matchup
The Rebels' biggest strength is their pass offense, which ranks No. 2 in the country in S&P+. The Aggies' biggest strength is their pass defense, which ranks No. 3. A&M's pass rush has been indomitable, but Ole Miss returns left tackle Laremy Tunsil, a future top-10 draft pick, to protect Chad Kelly's blind side, keep him upright and allow him to find Laquon Treadwell, Cody Core, Damore'ea Stringfellow, Quincy Adeboyejo, Evan Engram, et al.
If A&M stops the passing game, where else will this offense turn? But if Ole Miss establishes the passing game, where else will this defense turn?
Dominate with Field Position
The most overlooked of football's important factors, field position is an area in which the Aggies hold a major edge. Ole Miss ranks No. 108 in defensive field position, allowing opponents to start drives on an average of the 32-yard line, which is roughly where A&M's offense averages starting.
Against Memphis last week, the Rebels started their average drive on the 23-yard line, while the Tigers started their average drive on the 35. Dominating with field position is squarely in the blueprint for beating Ole Miss.
Ole Miss Keys to Victory
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Establish Some Sort of Running Game
The worst thing an offense can do against Texas A&M is wind up in passing downs. If they fail to establish the run and gain consistent yards early, the Rebels, even with their awesome passing game, stand next to no chance against a talented, aggressive pass rush, especially now that starting center Robert Conyers is out for the season with a torn ACL.
Ole Miss struggled to run last weekend, but the return of Tunsil at left tackle provides optimism. It needs to plow forward and exploit A&M's weakest area.
Contain Christian Kirk
I list this every week, and I won't stop until someone does it. Texas A&M true freshman Christian Kirk has been the most electric player in America, lighting up defenses and punt return units with ease, and he doesn't show signs of stopping.
His most recent victim was Alabama, against whom he scored a 68-yard punt return touchdown at the end of the first half. If not for Kirk, who has already surpassed 1,000 all-purpose yards, the Aggies would have at least two losses. If Ole Miss can at least contain him, it might force them into that number.
Create Big Plays on Passing Downs
If Ole Miss fails to establish a running game (see above), it will need to improve its passing-down explosiveness. The Rebels rank No. 5 in the country in standard-down Isolated Points Per Play, but they rank down at No. 125 on passing downs.
Texas A&M's defense, however, ranks No. 121 in passing-down IsoPPP, a product of its highly aggressive style. On 2nd/3rd-and-long, the Aggies tee off on opponents and make them play boom-or-bust. Ole Miss needs to hit a couple of booms.
Texas A&M Players to Watch
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QBs Kyle Allen and Kyler Murray
How short is Allen's leash after essentially booting last week's game? It might not be that short considering true freshman Kyler Murray, who replaced him in the second half, didn't look a whole lot better.
Allen and Murray were both 5-star prospects, per 247 Sports, and both have bright futures, but neither has established himself as a consistent, down-to-down threat. In the two games Ole Miss has lost this season, Florida quarterback Will Grier and Memphis quarterback Paxton Lynch were consistent, down-to-down threats. That's what it will take for A&M to pull the upset.
DB Justin Evans
Justin Evans has developed into a monster, and at just the right time. He made play after play against Alabama, at one point even leveling Derrick Henry on a crucial 3rd-and-2. He'll be needed even more in the passing game against Ole Miss, an offense that rolls out serious size at receiver and tight end. The Aggies will count on Evans and his long, lean frame (6'1", 195 lbs) to make plays in the deep and middle thirds.
DT Daylon Mack
Along with the aforementioned Kirk, Aggies defensive tackle Daylon Mack looks like a lock for the Freshman All-American Team. He logged another highlight last weekend, bursting through the line to trample Jake Coker and Henry in the backfield, and he continues to play well beyond his years.
Mack did his best work after Alabama center Ryan Kelly left the game, but now he faces another team without its starting center. Watch for him to penetrate the A-gap on running plays and create interior pressure on passing downs against a line that just lost its ballast.
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Ole Miss Players to Watch
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QB Chad Kelly
It's received less press than Allen's issues, but Kelly has also struggled with interceptions. After throwing just one in his first three games, including zero in his first two FBS games, he has since thrown six picks in his last four outings, including two last week against Memphis.
Texas A&M's defense applies major pressure on quarterbacks and forces them to make singular plays. Especially if Ole Miss can't establish the run, this game will come down to Kelly.
DE Marquis Haynes
In last year's Texas A&M game, Marquis Haynes recorded two sacks for minus-26 yards—and that came against a far superior offensive line. Haynes might not have the aid of Robert Nkemdiche (concussion) on the inside, but with defensive tackle Breeland Speaks and defensive end Fadol Brown coming off big games at Memphis, the supporting cast is there for him to face single blocking most of the game.
Can he repeat last year's thoroughly impressive performance? If so, it throws a wrench at what A&M can do offensively.
OT Laremy Tunsil
If he played any position other than tackle, Tunsil would be an even bigger name. Serious college football fans know him, and NFL draft nerds will catch wind of him this offseason, but he still receives less (on-field) attention than he deserves.
Now making his first start of the year, his debut opponent is Aggies defensive end Myles Garrett, one of the few (maybe five or 10) players in the country who match his caliber of prospect. Watching them go at it should be a treat.
What They're Saying
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Texas A&M
Sumlin on last week's quarterback play, per quotes released by the school:
"No doubt that we need to play better at the positon. Those guys will be the first to tell you that. Probably one of them we could have had a better route out of the situation. But we put ourselves in that situation too.
Look from the beginning of the game, in all the plays that we were running, everything we threw, basically we made really 2 competitive plays on the perimeter with our receivers. One with Ricky Seals-Jones on the hashes late in the game, and one with Josh Reynolds. The rest of them? There was a deep ball with Christian (Kirk), the ball gets away. Ricky gets a ball knocked out on the sideline. After the blocked punt we had a chance, and we get one ripped out on the sideline. We throw a touchdown, it gets ripped out of Speedy's hands.
Every competitive situation that we have with those balls, we have to do a better job at receiver to handle those, and we've got to have better ball security with our quarterbacks. Because it creates a situation where they are just trying to make a play at that point. The last one? Uncharacteristic of Kyle. There was nothing up until that point to lead you to believe that something like that was going to happen. We've looked at the video. Got to get things corrected. Got to play better at that positon. And those 50-50 balls, we've got to make plays on those and not have them be incompletions or drive-enders.
We're not going to score every time, especially in a game like that against that defense. Flipping the field and playing good defense and playing the field position game is okay. Our guys pressed a little bit too, trying to make things happen. That's a terrible time for it but it's a learning experience. One that I think these two guys will learn from.
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Sumlin on Ole Miss' offense, per the same source:
"Chad Kelly is a big strong guy. Great arm. Live arm. Perimeter guys are fabulous. Exceptional talent on the outside. Had a couple of 70-point games early. No doubt he has quality receivers across the board. Arguably one of the best receivers in the country that he's throwing to, along with 3, 4 or 5 other guys, a few we tried to recruit actually. One of the great tight ends in this league, like what we faced at Arkansas. Got good players on the perimeter. Running back is a live wire back there. Can find holes, can skip around a little bit. Great return guy too. Offensively they have weapons and a quarterback that can get them all over the field in many different ways. Been putting up lots of points and you can see why on tape.
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Ole Miss
Head coach Hugh Freeze on his relationship with Sumlin, per quotes released by the school:
"Kevin Sumlin and I go back to our high school days. We had a common friend and developed a friendship. He has always been a great resource for me until we both came to this league and we are in the same half (of the division). We haven’t talked a lot of X’s and O’s, but I always consider him a friend and a guy that is going to be encouraging. He knows what we go through in this business. He has been through it. Last year he had a disappointing year in his estimation, and his people’s estimation. I try to encourage him when those things are going on and he does the same for me. I consider him a great friend in the business.
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Freeze on the "what-ifs" after last week's loss, per the same source:
"I don’t think anybody worth their salt, when you don’t have success, doesn’t look back and reflect and evaluate what you should have done differently. I am the same way. In hindsight, we have to coach our kids and execute better. We had one blown assignment that cost us a hit in the backfield, and a second one I would do differently. At that time, the momentum had definitely shifted and I didn’t want to give it back to them when you have half a foot to make it. Looking back, I would do it differently.
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Prediction
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I like how Texas A&M matches up with Ole Miss—so much so that I am calling for the outright upset.
The best way to beat the Aggies is to run on them, but Ole Miss has no running game. The best way to beat the Rebels is to stop the pass, and A&M has an awesome pass defense.
That leaves the game up to A&M's offense, which cost it the win against Alabama. But Ole Miss' defense is a far cry from last year's "Land Sharks" and this year's Crimson Tide, having just allowed 37 points against Memphis, so the Aggies should find success.
Prediction: Texas A&M 27, Ole Miss 23
Note: Unless otherwise cited, all advanced stats via Football Study Hall.
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