Florida State vs. Georgia Tech Complete Game Preview
Heading into the 2015 season, this was supposed to be a massive matchup of ACC heavyweights—perhaps even a preview of the conference championship game in November.
But Saturday's rematch of 2014's title showdown in Charlotte between Florida State (6-0, 4-0 ACC) and Georgia Tech (2-5, 0-4 ACC) doesn't have nearly the same amount of buzz thanks to a miserable losing skid from the Yellow Jackets.
Head coach Paul Johnson's team has fallen in five straight games, with three of them coming by a single possession—including last weekend's loss to Pittsburgh on a long, last-minute field goal. If there's anything sputtering Georgia Tech can take away from its recent woes, it's that the five losses have come to teams who have only lost four games so far in 2015.
Now the Jackets' brutal schedule continues with a home game against Florida State, which is back in the Top 10 after a monster second-half surge against Louisville last Saturday. The Seminoles are starting to hit their stride in a balanced and explosive offense, and the defense continues to stifle opponents on the ground.
Before we break down undefeated Florida State's trip to Atlanta to take on struggling Georgia Tech, here is all the basic info you need to know.
Date: Saturday, October 24
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Location: Bobby Dodd Stadium (Atlanta, Georgia)
TV: ESPN2
Line: Florida State -5.5, according to Odds Shark
Florida State Keys to Victory
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Let Cook...cook
Dalvin Cook is having the best season of any running back not named Leonard Fournette—and Bill Connelly of SB Nation wrote Tuesday that Cook has been even more explosive than the LSU star, according to some advanced statistics.
The plan for attacking a downtrodden Georgia Tech defense is simple. Florida State needs to run the ball and let Cook continue to break away for big plays. The Yellow Jackets have allowed at least 200 rushing yards in four of their five straight losses, and Cook has recorded at least 150 yards and multiple touchdowns in every game in which he receives more than 15 carries.
Quarterback Everett Golson is coming off his biggest game through the air for Florida State, and there might be a tendency to let it fly early. But as he showed Saturday against Louisville, Cook is the key to unlocking defenses and giving Golson chances to beat teams downfield.
Get off to a quick start
While Georgia Tech has lost five straight games, several of them have been close calls. In home games against North Carolina and Pittsburgh, the Yellow Jackets got off to strong starts offensively and carried that momentum through the second half.
Florida State has been more of a second-half team this season in terms of scoring, but the Seminoles would be best served by getting some early points on the board in Atlanta.
If Georgia Tech continues to move the ball efficiently in the first halves of home games, then Florida State will need to show it can punch back with the best of them. If Florida State opens up a lead and Georgia Tech falls apart like one might expect from a team on a five-game losing streak, then the Seminoles can put this one to rest early.
Stay strong against the run
Florida State's rush defense has been phenomenal this season, and it's found a way to step things up in recent weeks. Miami and Louisville, which each had explosive runners on their respective rosters, put up just 119 combined rushing yards on the Seminoles.
That excellent momentum against the run will be vital for Florida State as it faces Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets are eighth nationally in rushing yards per game this season (286.57), and the triple-option attack put up 376 yards on 40 carries last weekend against Pittsburgh—a school record in ACC play.
Last season in the ACC Championship Game, Georgia Tech rushed for 331 yards and four touchdowns against Florida State. The Seminoles are much better against the run this season with only one score allowed in six games, but they haven't faced a test quite like the one they'll get from Tech.
Georgia Tech Keys to Victory
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Take advantage with turnovers
Georgia Tech is plus-three in turnover margin this season, but the Yellow Jackets know they could be a lot better in that category—and in the win column.
The Yellow Jackets threw an interception on their final drive of last week's 31-28 loss to Pittsburgh. They had two fourth-quarter turnovers in the 38-31 loss to North Carolina. Defensively, Georgia Tech is way behind the takeaway and defensive touchdown pace it set last season, according to Matt Winkeljohn of RamblinWreck.com.
Having fewer turnovers than Florida State won't necessarily translate into a win, as Georgia Tech won that battle in multi-score losses to Notre Dame, Duke and Clemson. But the Jackets need to force some rare turnovers from Florida State's offense and take care of the ball if it gets close in the late stages.
Improve on third downs
Georgia Tech's run-first offense can melt away the clock, which would be quite beneficial in a close-game situation. In order to do that, though, Tech must find a way to consistently move the chains.
The Yellow Jackets are 114th nationally in third-down conversion percentage (32.94 percent) this season, and those woes have come back to haunt them in close losses. During their current skid, they've converted just 27.7 percent of their third downs and moved the chains just once in 12 tries against Clemson.
Florida State's defense hasn't exactly been rock-solid on third downs recently, as Louisville converted 60 percent of its chances and Miami got first downs on half of its attempts against the Seminoles. Georgia Tech must take advantage in this area.
Generate some sort of pressure on Golson
Through the first seven games of the season, Georgia Tech has only come up with 10 sacks for an average (1.43) that ranks 103rd nationally.
Florida State has fought through some of its offensive line woes from earlier in the season, and it allowed only two sacks to a tough Louisville defensive front. The line gave Golson time to have his best passing day so far as a Seminole against the Cardinals.
The Yellow Jackets need to create some sort of havoc against Golson, who hasn't thrown an interception all season after being so turnover-prone during his 2014 campaign at Notre Dame. The defense hasn't been particularly aggressive so far this year, but it should look to attack Golson and his young offensive line in a big-game environment.
Florida State Players to Watch
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RB Dalvin Cook
Dalvin Cook's last few weeks have been phenomenal for the Seminoles, and he's still not quite at 100 percent as he plays through a nagging hamstring issue that limited his touches earlier this season.
"We can limit how many yards we want, how many accelerations, how many max accelerations," Fisher said, per Seminoles.com. "Can we give him a little more long distance, and do we want him to strain and keep that speed up for a while, or do we just want burst? (The GPS is) controlling how we practice."
If he can avoid a setback during practice this week, Cook could have another huge rushing day against a Georgia Tech defense that is all out of sorts. He'll also continue to be a receiving option out of the backfield for Golson, who hit Cook four times for 60 yards against Louisville.
WR Kermit Whitfield
Kermit Whitfield is coming off a breakout performance at wide receiver for the Seminoles, grabbing nine catches for 172 yards against Louisville.
As Fisher noted in his weekly press conference, the speedy Whitfield is still relatively new to the wide receiver position. But, as he showed against the Cardinals, he can be quite dangerous when he's out in open space with the football in his hands.
Look for Golson to go back to his No. 1 receiver from last weekend against Georgia Tech, which has allowed 10 passing plays of 30 or more yards through its first six games of the season. The chances for explosive plays are out there, and Whitfield has the athleticism to make things even more miserable for a struggling defense.
The star
All the news out of the Louisville game wasn't good for Florida State, as sophomore defensive back Trey Marshall tore his bicep in the victory and will now miss the rest of the season.
Marshall was the starter for Florida State at the "star" defensive back position, and his absence was felt by the Seminole defense. As David Visser of Tomahawk Nation noted, backup Tyler Hunter had issues with pass coverage and penalties against Louisville after he came in for Marshall.
Fisher named several players who could replace Marshall at the crucial star position, including Hunter, Javien Elliott and even top cornerback Jalen Ramsey. Keep an eye on who gets the start in place of Marshall and how FSU rotates the position moving forward.
Georgia Tech Players to Watch
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QB Justin Thomas
The key cog in Johnson's triple-option offense, Justin Thomas is not having the junior many expected of him as the leader of the preseason ACC Coastal favorites.
While he's not primarily a passer, Thomas has thrown an interception in four straight games and has completed more than half of his attempts only once in the five-game losing streak. He bounced back with 95 rushing yards against Pittsburgh, but he was held to just three on the ground against Clemson two weeks ago.
Tech's option attack rises and falls with Thomas, who will have added pressure on him to take care of the ball against a Florida State team that is extremely strong in keeping possession. When the offense is clicking, Thomas can be one of the most dangerous players in the ACC.
DT Adam Gotsis
Georgia Tech needs to turn things around against the run, and that starts up front with the defensive line and third-year starting tackle Adam Gotsis.
"I don’t think it’s anything that we can’t fix," Gotsis told Joe Sobchuk of the Technique. "We have been hurting ourselves a lot more than how it looks on TV. It’s more about mistakes that we are making, like misalignments and assignments. It’s bad, the position that we are in, but we dug this hole ourselves, and we have to dig ourselves out."
Gotsis is tied for third on the team in tackles—a notable feat for a player of his position—and he drew the praise of Johnson in the ugly loss to Clemson, per Ken Sugiura of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. He'll be one to focus on as the Jackets go up against the Florida State offensive line.
LB P.J. Davis
P.J. Davis is having a do-it-all season for Georgia Tech's defense. The junior linebacker leads or is at least tied for the team lead in tackles, tackles for loss, sacks, quarterback hurries and forced fumbles in 2015.
Davis had nine tackles in the loss to Pittsburgh, and he had 14 earlier this season against Duke. In a changing linebacker corps that has featured some new freshmen in recent weeks, Davis has been a constant playmaker for the Yellow Jackets.
He'll be asked to do quite a bit against Florida State's multiple attack, from slowing down Cook on the ground to affecting Golson in pass-rushing and coverage assignments. He's a player who should get his name called quite a bit by the announce team.
What They're Saying
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Florida State
Head coach Jimbo Fisher on facing Georgia Tech, per Seminoles.com:
"We are going to have to play with a lot of discipline because possessions could be limited and you have to make sure you maximize those and play from a position of strength which will be very hard. This will be a very challenging game, as it always is and we have to get better this week and accept the challenge.
"
Defensive tackle Nile Lawrence-Stample on facing Georgia Tech's option attack, per Brendan Sonnone of the Orlando Sentinel:
"It makes it so challenging just because you play a team like that once a year. If you played that team six or seven times a year, it’d be a lot easier. Having to go from you being able to have one type of defense and you’re able to kind of freelance a little bit and make that mistake once in a while, your discipline kind of gets kind of slackish. So having a team to where you can’t do that at all, it obviously creates problems for teams. But I think we’ll be fine.
"
Georgia Tech
Head coach Paul Johnson on his team's losing streak, per Deen:
"A lot of people have struggled with the teams we just played. And the next one coming in is 6-0. … Are we playing as well as we'd like to? No. I'm not saying that's an excuse. We want to win the games. I'm just saying it is what it is.
"
Quarterback Justin Thomas on any lack of confidence from the younger players, per Suguira:
"I don’t know what’s going through their minds but as young guys not playing that much in a new offense, it can kind of happen. You can’t really play how you want to play because your mind’s thinking about what you want to do. I think the more they get in tune with the offense, the faster they can play, which we’ve been seeing as the weeks have been going along.
"
Prediction
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It's tough to play the hypothetical game, but Georgia Tech is not your average 2-5 team. The Yellow Jackets have faced a tough schedule, and they turned some things around offensively last weekend against Pittsburgh.
The point spread for this game is tight for several reasons—the game is in Atlanta, Georgia Tech has played it close with Florida State the last few years and Florida State hasn't quite found that killer instinct just yet.
But this isn't the same kind of Georgia Tech team that has given Florida State trouble in the past. The Yellow Jackets don't have that usual edge on offense, and they're playing right into one of the toughest rush defenses in the entire country. And their defense couldn't keep up with Pittsburgh as their teammates on offense had one of their best rushing performances in the Johnson era.
I wouldn't be surprised at all if Georgia Tech gets off to a hot start in front of its home fans and plays it close with Florida State in the first half. But these Seminoles have been excellent after halftime this season, and Georgia Tech won't be able to maintain the same pace as the game gets into the later stages.
My prediction here is that Cook will have another huge game as he combines with Golson to hit some long touchdowns on the frustrated Yellow Jackets in the second half. The defense buckles down against the run after an early surge, and Florida State heads back to Tallahassee with a good-sized win.
Prediction: Florida State 34, Georgia Tech 21
Unless otherwise noted, statistics courtesy of cfbstats.com.
Justin Ferguson is a college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
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