2016 NFL Draft: Updated Prospect Radar Post-Week 6
If your team has only one win this deep into the season, I'm willing to give that fanbase a heavy dosage of draft season immediately. I know they want to believe, but those franchises would somehow have to piece it all together at once and make essentially a 10-week run to get back into the playoff race.
With that being said, I welcome Ravens, Chiefs, Jaguars, Titans, Lions and any other fans with open arms. As always, we'll recap impactful performances in college football, not just over the past weekend, but for players who are accumulating stock as the season progresses.
This week's stock movement is very quarterback-heavy, which for all one-win teams, other than possibly Kansas City, is irrelevant. Luckily, I also added a quick top-five mock to give all fans just a bit of what they crave after Week 6's interesting results in the NFL.
The draft is getting closer, and the majority of this class' work has already been put on film. No one is really going to blow up at this point, as we generally know the names, narratives and skill sets of 400 potentially draftable prospects who are eligible in the 2016 class. Instead, from this point on, in-conference and major out-of-conference play will separate those whose hype is legitimate from the early-flashing frauds.
Stock Down: Shawn Oakman, DL, Baylor
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Shawn Oakman was a blue-chip recruit heading to Penn State before he became a meme for his bowl game appearance, when he was snapped with his jersey lifted and abs showing. Standing at 6'9", he's going to be the longest guy on the field nine times out of 10 at the professional level. At 275 pounds, though, he looks thin on a relative scale of NFL defensive linemen.
To put that into perspective, Preston Smith, a rookie linebacker with Washington, is around four inches shorter but weighed 271 pounds at the combine. Oakman, now at Baylor after he was booted from Penn State, needs to gain significant weight if he wants to become a run-stopper at the next level, and based on his pass-rushing tape, he's going to need to.
He's been talked about as an elite athlete, and maybe that's true as far as linear explosion goes; he's light for his frame, and as far as movement skills go, he's limited. He's never going to bend the corner in the NFL. He's not physical enough to just blow through a guy inside like Ohio State's Joey Bosa will. At 6'9", it's going to be hard for Oakman to win a leverage battle, too.
In some ways, he is like the second coming of Margus Hunt. He was a standout in bowl games for SMU after chasing the Olympic dream in his youth. At 6'8" and 277 pounds, he ran a 4.60 40-yard dash. According to NFL Draft Scout's profile of Oakman, a site which tends to be the most accurate concerning to pre-combine measurables, he is projected to hit a 4.88.
He's already 23 years old and will turn 24 before the 2016 NFL draft. Let's recap: He has potential character concerns, is an overrated athlete, doesn't really have a position and really doesn't have any true positive that one can point to other than the fact that he's really big and looks like a body builder, which could be taken as a negative and not a positive. I had hopes he'd step up this season, but he's been stagnant, if he hasn't regressed.
Current draft projection: Third round
Stock Up: Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis
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Whenever I hear about a rising quarterback, I tend to sigh, roll my eyes and then pop in his most recent game. After last week's game, though, I'm willing to stick my neck out and say that the Paxton Lynch hype is legit.
I saw Memphis' games against Bowling Green and Cincinnati, two shootouts that featured talented quarterbacks in their own right in Matt Johnson and Gunner Kiel, though Kiel left the game early with an injury.
This last Saturday's matchup is really the one that opened my eyes to Lynch. The way people will describe Lynch is similar to Brock Osweiler, a tall (6'8") passer with an arm and mobility. Coming out, Osweiler wasn't in any consideration to be a starter, but he was a premier "project" type.
Lynch shows a lot more polish but at the same time lacks those elite tools. He has a fine arm, but he's not going to compete with the Brett Favres or Michael Vicks of the world. Lynch also doesn't tuck and run often, instead choosing to use his legs to buy time on downfield passes. In that aspect, I understand an Aaron Rodgers comparison, but that's near blasphemy.
Against the Ole Miss Rebels, Lynch almost exclusively threw catchable balls. By my charting, he threw the ball behind the line of scrimmage 17 times, mostly on screens, but accurately threw 17 of 17 balls between the line of scrimmage and the seven-yard mark, what is typically considered "underneath" coverage in zone. Between the eight-yard mark and the 15-yard mark, an area labeled as "intermediate," he threw 83 percent of his passes accurately, putting 10 of 12 passes in the hands of his receivers.
On deep attempts between 16 and 25 yards from the line of scrimmage, he got it to his receivers two out of three times. On passes over 26 yards, he only threw one of three accurately, which is about average. These throws included any plays with penalties that were independent from the quarterback and receiving target.
What was even more impressive is how he completed some of his passes. Escaping pressure, rolling right and throwing across his body wasn't an odd sight by the third quarter. He may not get his feet set often, again like Rodgers, but he always had his shoulders aligned correctly, looking like Marcus Mariota on the move.
You can win with Lynch. He's not going to be a stud in any category other than accuracy and potentially movement skills, but that's enough in today's NFL, so long as you aren't a liability on third downs or in the red zone. At the end of the day, the Rebels' turnover issues gave Lynch the perfect platform to elevate his stock on a national level this weekend, and he played his A-game.
Current draft projection: Top 50
Stock Down: Christian Hackenberg, QB, Penn State
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I'm going to make this short and simple. After Christian Hackenberg's freshman season, we thought the Bill O'Brien product was on track to become the next Tom Brady. Once O'Brien left for the Houston Texans, where he has still yet to find his franchise passer, Hackenberg has played like an undrafted free agent.
Against Ohio State, we got to see him short-circuit worse than in any game since Penn State lost to in-state Temple earlier in the season. He was missing routine passes, such as wide-open horizontal screens, consistently.
Don't fall for the trap. He's going to declare with his freshman season's tape in hand as his resume, and we'll make the excuses for his past two seasons. As we get closer to draft day, some will bring up the fact that this class is weak at the top and how there may not be a second or third first-round quarterback.
No one is going to use a first-round pick on Hackenberg. Not even O'Brien. We went through this a couple of seasons ago with the Doug Marrone and Ryan Nassib connection. Every year, some quarterback is brought up as a first-round pick when we know that he doesn't deserve the label. He's the next Matt Barkley or Bryce Petty in that respect.
"Hack" checks all the boxes for "looks like a first-round quarterback" and none of the boxes for "plays like a first-round quarterback." Right now, I couldn't spend a top-60 pick on someone who is so wildly inconsistent.
Current draft projection: Third round
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Stock Up: Connor Cook, QB, Michigan State
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Connor Cook didn't have a great showing against Michigan's strong defense, but he's built momentum throughout the season and avoided a disaster against Jim Harbaugh, who apparently is a top-five coach in the sport after turning around that Wolverines program in a single offseason.
Cook is 6'4" with a well-filled frame. On paper, he's somewhere between a young Andy Dalton and Blake Bortles, as far as stylistic comparisons go. He doesn't have great touch, but he's shown placement on deep balls and never has horrendous passes. This season, he's only put the ball in the hands of the other team twice in 201 attempts.
He's going to be hit with a "game manager" stamp, and some offensive coordinators will love him for it. Even in desperate moments, Cook sticks to the script. That won't put him in a position to win every game, but it will put his team in a better position to win the game down the line. For example, a Cardale Jones, Jameis Winston or Johnny Manziel type probably goes for broke at the end of the Michigan game last weekend.
Cook is conservative even in a pressure situation, which in the last second counted when his team capitalized on a special teams mistake for the winning score. He's not my prototypical quarterback, but NFL franchises love to take shots at guys such as Cook, despite their hit rate.
I wouldn't be surprised if Cook was both the first quarterback taken in this draft and a top-five pick. The 2016 class feels like it has its Bortles (Cook) and Teddy Bridgewater (Jared Goff, California), and all of the same debates are playing over again. The story ends with general managers talking themselves into Cook and out of Goff the longer the cycle goes on.
Current draft projection: First round
Stock Down: Cody Kessler, QB, USC
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You know how Chiefs fans complain about Alex Smith all the time? If you want that in your life, draft Cody Kessler. Some are going to pump up the senior leader from USC, but I don't see a prospect who is even on the level of Aaron Murray, who was a fifth-round pick in 2014 and is two spots behind Smith on the depth chart.
Kessler is accurate to a degree and can move to an extent, but the deep to intermediate range will never be where he thrives. If you drop men into short coverage, you can take advantage of his fatal flaw: his arm strength.
My theory on quarterback evaluations revolves around what he can do on third down. Does he have elite touch? Does he have an elite arm? Does he have the legs to convert? If you can't answer yes to any of those, he's probably not a passer you'd want to invest your future in.
Unfortunately, Kessler is going to end up as a second- or third-string West Coast offense quarterback in a reserve role for his career. That's perfectly fine, and those players are needed, but you don't spend a top-100 pick on a player like that.
The one plus that Kessler had building throughout the season was that he was a "manager" who kept the ball safe through the first three games. Since then, he's thrown five interceptions over the last three games, including back-to-back double-interception totals.
Maybe Kessler ends up developing an aggressive mentality at the next level and improves his arm strength like Drew Brees did, but this seemingly sub-6'2" passer has a lot of history going against him.
Current draft projection: Fifth round
Stock Up: Carl Nassib, EDGE, Penn State
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It's hard to come up with a name of a player who has had a senior season as impactful as Carl Nassib's. Heading into the year, he was a virtual unknown, a former walk-on who was faceless other than the fact that he was the brother of Ryan Nassib, the former Syracuse quarterback who is now backing up Eli Manning in New York.
Nassib is long at 6'7", which has helped him post 12 sacks this season. He has posted a sack in every game this year, even last week against Ohio State, a team noted for offensive line and quarterback play.
Nassib isn't some freak athlete. If anyone tells you that, you need to ignore them. He is on the level of recent players such as Nate Orchard, though—high-effort producers who look to fill out the bottom of a roster at the next level. Some might get crazy with Nassib's rise over the next few weeks, calling him a future first-round pick. He's a mid-round pass-rushing prospect, and that's fine.
He also has the length to add more weight to his frame. As a 272-pounder, he stumbles over his feet often in space, trying to play faster than he really can control. Maybe he's just getting used to his current weight, but on the outside chance that you wanted to make him a 5-technique 3-4 defensive end, he has the frame to get the job done there as well. Adding 20 pounds to a player is a huge commitment, but that's where his upside rests.
In many ways, I suggest his move to a 5-technique role in the same way I did for Trent Murphy, who stuck as a pass-rusher and is now backing up Ryan Kerrigan and Preston Smith, a second-round rookie, in Washington. Nassib is good, but to be above replacement level at the next level, he's going to need to develop nuance at his position or gain weight.
Current draft projection: Third round
Bonus: Top-Five Mock
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1. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5): Joey Bosa, EDGE, Ohio State
I know I have written about Joey Bosa not being the generational talent that some have pegged him as, but he's still a fine prospect. If he can be Cameron Jordan, the Jacksonville Jaguars look at this pick as a positive. In a 4-3 defense, Jacksonville would add Bosa as the left end of its squad and Dante Fowler, the injured 2015 first-round pick, at right end in the same season, improving the pass rush tremendously.
The cherry on top is that Bosa is from Florida. In the last two seasons, the Jaguars have taken Blake Bortles and Fowler, two players who not only competed in Florida's high school system but played at universities in the state.
2. Baltimore Ravens (1-5): Jalen Ramsey, CB, Florida State
This one is a slam dunk. The Baltimore Ravens badly need pass-rushing and cornerback help. Their pass defense has been a liability in nearly every game they've played in 2015. Jalen Ramsey has transitioned from safety to cornerback this year and looks like one of the elite prospects in this class. Outside of Bosa, I wouldn't say there is another pass-rusher who should be considered in the top 10.
3. Detroit Lions (1-5): Laremy Tunsil, OT, Mississippi
This team can't give up on quarterback Matthew Stafford. There's just too much invested in him to pass him over for another option. While Stafford isn't ideal, a decade may pass before someone of his skill suits up in Lions blue.
With playmaking quarterbacks, the best thing you can do is give them quality bookends. At Texas A&M, Johnny Manziel had first-round picks blocking both edges for him, which led to success. It's also one reason why the Packers have taken the opportunity to invest in Bryan Bulaga, making him one of the highest-paid right tackles in an attempt to protect Aaron Rodgers.
Look no further than Seattle to see what happens to a playmaking quarterback without a quality offensive line.
Laremy Tunsil has missed the early season with a suspension, but if he looks anything like his previous two seasons of film, he'll be in the running for the top pick of this class. At 6'5" and 305 pounds, he's a dancing bear. He can kick Riley Rieff to right tackle or play right tackle himself, making the franchise quarterback's life much easier.
4. Kansas City Chiefs (1-5): Connor Cook, QB, Michigan State
It's just time. Alex Smith clearly isn't the answer, and if Andy Reid doesn't start winning again, he could easily be out of a job. Drafting quarterbacks early is as much about solidifying job security as it is about getting better as a football team. There are only 32 of those head coaching jobs in the world. There are only 32 of those general manager jobs in the world. When you get a hold of one, you clinch it for dear life.
Is Connor Cook a top-five prospect? Probably not. He's fairly similar to Blake Bortles, though, who passed the traditional "looks like a quarterback" filters and rose all the way to a surprising third overall pick. Don't be shocked if Cook's trajectory takes him to the same range.
5. Tennessee Titans (1-4): Ronnie Stanley, OT, Notre Dame
Marcus Mariota is going to fumble the ball when he gets hit, so the Titans are going to need to do a better job of protecting him. Taylor Lewan is playing left tackle, but rookie Jeremiah Poutasi, who was better suited as a guard prospect than a tackle prospect, is their starting right tackle.
The selection of Ronnie Stanley, who went blow for blow with Shaq Lawson of Clemson, one of the top three or four pass-rushers in college football, would give the Titans some flexibility. Poutasi would be allowed to kick back inside, improving the team at both guard and tackle, plus the team would have the opportunity to choose between Lewan and Stanley as the blindside protector.
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