NFL Fantasy Football Week 6: Last-Minute Advice for Setting Your Roster

Back in August, it all seemed so simple as we stared at our awesome title-bound teams. Now that reality has set in for many fantasy rosters, we find active and informed management is often the best counter to the rash of injuries, byes and underwhelming investments most managers face throughout the fantasy football campaign. 

Will Seattle's Marshawn Lynch return to action and feast on fantasy points in a full return to true "Beast Mode" levels? Should Baltimore's Javorius "Buck" Allen be owned en masse considering Justin Forsett's questionable status for an inviting matchup in San Francisco?

With so many questions across the fantasy landscape to consider, please join us as we discuss some of the most important injury scenarios, undervalued commodities and streaming defenses with an eye on preparing for Week 6 of the fantasy football campaign.

Waiver-Wire Wonders for Week 6: 49ers vs. Ravens Offers Multiple Values

Matt Ludtke/Associated Press

In this section, we focus solely on players we can find for free in at least 40 percent of ESPN fantasy football leagues. This week trends quite receiver-heavy, as byes and injuries have thinned the running back market. 

Still Bullish on the Bears' Passing Upside

If depth-chart peers Alshon Jeffery and Eddie Royal return to action this week, as ESPN.com's Jeff Dickerson reports is a strong possibility given both players practiced this week, it certainly removes some of the marquee sleeper upside Marquess Wilson would have accrued otherwise.

Yet even with the potential return of both wideouts, I'm still interested in Wilson as a deep-league flex (at least 12 teams), given his recent strong rapport with Jay Cutler, as evidenced by hauling in 70.6 percent of his passes over the past two weeks for a team-leading 165 receiving yards. With tight end Martellus Bennett deemed questionable, per Dickerson, and both his wideout peers unlikely to be at 100 percent, Wilson could enjoy a soft setup against a Lions secondary that is allowing a league-high completion percentage to opposing arms (76.6 percent) and the most yards per attempt (9.23) in the league.

The Ravens' Passing Game Could Shine in the Bay on Sunday

Available in over 60 percent of ESPN leagues, Kamar Aiken leads the Ravens in targets when the team goes without Steven Smith Sr., who will more than likely miss another game this Sunday to a lingering back ailment, according to Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun. Aiken has 16 targets over the past two games, while no other Ravens receiver has more than seven over this span.

Referencing ESPN's fantasy points allowed index, we find the 49ers have allowed the most yards to opposing receivers since Week 2 with 955 over that span. Only the Titans (15.9) have allowed a higher rate of yards per catch than the 49ers (15.3) this season to receivers. With byes, injuries and underwhelming play hitting the position this weekend, Aiken can help provide a salve to some of these trying scenarios.

While Meoli's report suggests the team's tailback Justin Forsett is likely to be active despite a limiting ankle injury, keep a close eye on rookie running back Javorius "Buck" Allen on Sunday, as he'd immediately become a viable spot starter if Forsett were ruled out before kickoff. For more information on the USC product, we profiled Allen in greater depth earlier this week.

"Monty" Still Matters 

The Packers' Ty Montgomery has played on 99 and 98 percent of the Packers' snaps over the past two weeks, respectively, leading the team's receiving depth chart in offensive snaps since Week 4, according to Football Outsiders.

Aaron Rodgers has posted a 124.6 passer rating in throwing to Montgomery since Week 4, which is his highest rate among the seven players he's targeted over the past two games, according to ESPN's database. Only Richard Rodgers and Randall Cobb have more targets on the Packers over the past two weeks.

According to ESPN's fantasy points allowed index, even as the Chargers have allowed the fewest yards to receivers per game in the league this season, claiming a 16 percent share of Rodgers' targets and a full complement of snaps is enough for us to endorse "Monty" as a sound sleeper asset this Sunday in Lambeau.

Some Other Sleepers To Consider

The 49ers' Torrey Smith has long been a boom-or-bust fantasy producer. Narrative-driven angles rarely offer predictive value, but let's go ahead and combine the angle of Smith playing his former team this Sunday with the fact the Ravens have allowed the second-most receiving yards to receivers since Week 2 this season, behind only San Francisco's similarly suspect secondary over this span. Smith is often an inscrutable player to project, but at least this matchup is trending to "boom."

We outlined earlier this week why the Texans' Cecil Shorts III should be of interest to investors in points-per-reception leagues. The simple pitch: He was on pace for 88 receptions before missing time with an injury this season, while the Texans are on pace to set the all-time pass-attempt record by more than 6 percent.

Questionable Calls: T.J. Yeldon and Justin Forsett Are Game-Time Decisions

Gail Burton/Associated Press

We often face multiple mysterious injury scenarios for each week of NFL action. For Week 6, the majority of injury-induced stress stems from backfields across the league. Outside of the unknown outcomes in the Baltimore and Jacksonville backfields, we find the Giants' Odell Beckham Jr. having not practiced this week, which leaves his status in question for Monday night's crucial division tilt. In this section, we aim to evaluate each major injury scenario on the Week 6 market.

Justin Forsett's Investors Should Add Buck Allen

Including only Week 4 and Week 5, the Ravens' Forsett is second only to the Rams' rare rookie Todd Gurley in rushing, while only the Bucs' Doug Martin and the Falcons' Devonta Freeman have more total yards in that span. 

Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun reports Forsett could possibly play Sunday in San Francisco despite an ankle injury that has limited him in practice this week. This could truly be a game-time decision, as the designation itself is meant to be characterized as a 50-50 scenario. We suggest that Forsett's investors roster rookie understudy Buck Allen where possible, as he's still available in more than 80 percent of ESPN leagues.

The 49ers, for their part, have allowed the sixth-most points to opposing backs in ESPN leagues this season, which opens up some awesome upside for Allen if Forsett is deemed inactive.

Jacksonville's T.J. Yeldon Is a True Game-Time Decision

The Jaguars' rookie back is truly questionable for this week's division matchup with the Texans given a groin injury suffered in Week 5, per a report from Ryan O'Halloran of the Florida Times-Union. It would truly be a missed opportunity for Yeldon's shareholders if he were to sit, as the Texans have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing backs this season, in part due to surrendering 97.6 yards per game on the ground to opposing backs, ninth-most in the league.

We broke down the Jaguars backfield past Yeldon earlier this week, surmising a former college quarterback might be the best call in replacement duties:

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The Jaguars' Denard Robinson likely won't wow you with a volume of touches, but per Vito Stellino of the Florida Times-Union, the former Michigan signal-caller returned to practice this week, sharing with reporters, "I'm going to be able to do everything I would usually do," said Robinson. What Robinson usually does is consume third-down duties on an offense that has attempted the 10th-most passes in the league, potentially offering some low-end flex interest in deeper point-per-reception formats.

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Giant Question

The Giants' top weapon is undeniably their aforementioned second-year wideout. Follow his murky injury status closely with Bleacher Report's continuously updated article, as it is unclear if Beckham will be available for Monday night given a lingering hamstring ailment that kept him from practicing this week, according to James Kratch of NJ Advanced Media.

Given that Beckham returned to action last week after apparently suffering the soft-tissue injury, I speculate he'll be active this Monday night. If his investors can roster teammate Rueben Randle almost as a handcuff asset (who is also dealing with a hammy issue but is deemed probable, per Kratch), then that is an ideal insurance policy.

I would be willing to assume the risks of Beckham sitting unless I had some stellar alternatives, as I value the risk of missing out a potentially massive game for the LSU product is greater than the risk of his being inactive. It's a personal call for each of his owners, but I'm riding with the sophomore superstar despite the clear dangers.

Is "Beast Mode" Back?

Despite a sound defensive reputation versus the position, the Carolina Panthers have allowed the 11th-most fantasy points per game to opposing backs this season. Seattle's Marshawn Lynch has been ailing with lingering soft-issue injuries, but according to a report from ESPN.com's Sheil Kapadia, we might just see "Beast Mode" enjoying that celebrated combination of Skittles and fantasy points this Sunday in hosting the Panthers.

From Kapadia's report, head coach Peter Carroll expressed confidence in his feature back. "He looked really, really back to full health," Carroll said. "We had to send [the injury report] in before practice started, but he made it out, looked good, and we’re counting on him playing." While Thomas Rawls ran well in his place, it's time to get Lynch back in lineups in all fantasy formats.

Which injury scenarios are you facing this week? Please share any lineup concerns or close calls influenced by injuries in the comments below.

Streaming of Vegas Week 6: Let the Desert Help on Defense

Jack Dempsey/Associated Press

How can we leverage the point projection system that Vegas and offshore sportsbooks produce each week in seeking streaming D/ST options? The foundation of the idea has us favoring favorites in games with point totals under 46.5. 

The results showed favorites in games below this threshold ended up in the top 10 in ESPN fantasy leagues 49 percent of the time. Here is a simple breakdown of the quadrants for this concept: 

• Favorites in games with a point total under 46.5: 49 percent in the top 10 of fantasy D/ST units.
• Favorites in games with a point total over 46.5: 38 percent top-10 rate. 
• Underdogs in games with a point total under 46.5: 29 percent top-10 rate. 
• Underdogs in games over a point total over 46.5: 21 percent top-10 rate. 

We can also use these trends to help identify some potentially productive under-the-radar D/ST units for Week 6 of fantasy football competition. 

Fresh off the Bye and with a New Middle 'Backer, the Vikings Are Interesting

Minnesota's rookie inside linebacker Eric Kendricks is poised to consume every-down duties, according to the Star Tribune's Matt Vensel. While this move might appear minor, I'm buying that the shift from a middling rotation of veterans to solely Kendricks on the inside could improve on the Vikings' 26th-ranked rush defense (allowing 125.5 yards per game).

Fresh off the bye and facing a reeling Chiefs offense without its top playmaker (Jamaal Charles) for the rest of the season, the Vikings are home favorites in a contest with a point total of 43.5, according to Odds Shark. The Vikings love to regularly blitz the A-gaps and meet the favorable favored and low-point-total combination we covet.

The Panthers Are Poised for a Solid Fantasy Sunday

The Carolina Panthers are road dogs in Seattle this Sunday afternoon, yet the game's total is hovering around 40 points, according to Odds Shark. With this distinction as dogs in a "low" point total nets fantasy success nearly 30 percent of the time, leveraging this group still at least bears some upside.

The real interest here is driven by the Seahawks' patchwork offensive line that has given up 22 sacks this season, most in the league. In a game projected to be low-scoring and with such generous sack allowance from Seattle, the Panthers make for a reasonable spot-start consideration.

Bold Predictions: LeGarrette Blount and Matthew Stafford Enjoy Big Sundays

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In our bold predictions last week, we predicted the Eagles' DeMarco Murray would break out of an enduring yardage slump with more than 100 total yards, producing a top-five fantasy day at the position. Murray was sixth in fantasy points, using ESPN standard scoring, among backs in Week 5 but was fourth in PPR scoring at the position, according to FantasyPros. We'll take it.

In this section, we share bold predictions for big fantasy outings from less-than-obvious sources. As always, please share your bold predictions in the comments below.

Matthew Stafford Enjoys Fantastic Fantasy Production

The Lions pulled their mercurial signal-caller in a blowout loss last week, but I actually believe Stafford can produce prolific passing output against the Bears' patchwork pass defense this Sunday. The Bears have allowed the fourth-highest QB rating to enemy arms this season and the fourth-most passing touchdowns in the league.

Only four NFL teams have averaged fewer interceptions per game than the Bears. Odds Shark has the Lions with an implied team point total around 24 points, which is actually a healthy relative projection given this week's slate rife with low point totals. Let's get bold and project over 300 yards and three touchdowns for Stafford.

LeGarrette Blount Produces a Top-Five Outing Among Backs

According to a report from Kevin Duffy of MassLive.com, diminutive dynamo Dion Lewis is questionable for the Pats' Sunday night tilt in Indianapolis versus the Colts with a groin injury. With Lewis likely to play but with the potential to be limited by this core injury, I'm projecting the big bruising Blount to top 100 total yards and register multiple touchdowns.

Deemed a flex play by most, I'd consider Blount an RB2 asset in most fantasy formats for Sunday night. Considering the game's massive point total of 54.5 points—the week's highest such projection, per Odds Shark—Blount could feast on multiple visits to the goal line.

Which under-the-radar players do you think will break out in a big way in Week 6?