What Does FIFA's Ballon d'Or Shortlist Say About the Premier League?
Lionel Messi will win the 2015 FIFA Ballon d'Or award.
No matter the other two individuals thrust upon a Zurich stage, come the time to announce the best footballer of 2015, Barcelona's Argentinian forward will, inevitably, receive his fifth golden ball on 11 January, 2016—we might as well not even watch.
Looking from the perspective of "who will win," the exercise is pointless—2015's evidence is clear for all who bother to look.
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The most interesting takeaway FIFA has given us, though, with their 23-man shortlist, is an interpretation on Europe's respective leagues and, in turn, respective nations.
Barcelona have six players nominated, Real Madrid have five, so, too, Bayern Munich. Seventy percent of the world's best talent, according to FIFA, are comprised within three clubs.
Of the seven remaining spots: Paul Pogba represents Serie A, Zlatan Ibrahimovic represents Ligue 1 and the Premier League splits five nominees three ways. Manchester City are home to three of FIFA's 23 nominees: Sergio Aguero, Kevin De Bruyne and Yaya Toure. Chelsea and Arsenal round out the list with Eden Hazard and Alexis Sanchez, respectively.
More damning, Real Madrid's Gareth Bale is the only British representation. FIFA's shortlist boasts zero English players and, based on merit, there can be little argument.
Tottenham Hotspur's Harry Kane is, possibly, England's best player of 2015, but arguing for the 22-year-old centre-forward over any name included (or some excluded) would appear madness.
Michael Owen won the Ballon d'Or in 2001 after a treble of cups with Liverpool—no Englishman has taken the trophy since. Frank Lampard was voted second in 2005, but the fact remains, English football has declined in a period dominated by two of football's foremost talents in Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo, leaving little room for others along the way.
Furthermore, Spanish and German football have become exceedingly better over the past decade, whereas Italian and English football have declined. The cycle leaves Italy, though Serie A is steadily improving, on the lower end of the proverbial spectrum.
England, however, has the economic wherewithal to syphon talent from other countries and incorporate it into their own hierarchy. It produces the most entertaining domestic sports product on earth, but holds back-end consequences for both the Premier League and English football in general.
One could make the argument an influx of foreign players to the EPL has resulted in England's youth academies becoming less of a priority. When you can import what you need, why splash resources on developing at home? This leaves more would-be athletes on English rosters than technically gifted footballers.
Outsourced for £102 million, City's Aguero (£35 million), Arsenal's Alexis Sanchez (£35 million) and Chelsea's Hazard (£32 million) are the Premier League's best representation in FIFA's 2015 proceedings.
Neither Manuel Pellegrini, Arsene Wenger nor Jose Mourinho would return their talismanic pieces, but if none of the league's three best players will get near the Ballon d'Or stage, we have to ask if England can ever ascend while Messi and Ronaldo are patrolling European football.
Aguero healthy—for an entire season—has the talent to break through, but asking the Argentina international to remain fit over 50 fixtures is like asking water from a camel or sand from a shark.
Sanchez, likewise, has immense talent, but will Arsenal win enough trophies to usurp the Champions League winning talents of Messi and Ronaldo?
Moreover, Messi (28) and Sanchez (27 in December) are in a similar age bracket—that mountain might be too steep for the Chilean.
Hazard—given his age—looks the best EPL candidate to eventually usurp Messi and Ronaldo, but the Belgian has one major hurdle to navigate: Goalscoring. In his Chelsea career, spanning 176 matches, Hazard has more assists (50) than goals (49).
The 24-year-old's talent suggests domination, but he lacks the avarice to kill matches. Knowing the potential, many will label Hazard an underachiever lest his goal tally improve.
As it stands, England are not producing world-class homegrown talent nor employing the upper echelon from a scarce supply; rather the Premier League has sold the nominated Ronaldo, Bale, Luis Suarez, Javier Mascherano and Arjen Robben.
The topic of an underperforming yet overrated, hyper-competitive Premier League will continue until the cyclical nature of football moves back in England's direction.
Messi and/or Ronaldo's decline, leading to a weakened La Liga, and Bayern Munich's Bundesliga machine requiring temporary maintenance will be the start of that process.
In other words, the Premier League has at least three seasons to wait before plates start shifting.
*Stats via WhoScored.com; transfer fees via Soccerbase where not noted.
