NFL Week 6 Picks: Rounding Up Top Experts' Predictions

The Atlanta Falcons are no longer one of the undefeated elites, their high-flying offense's wings clipped in a 31-21 road loss to the New Orleans Saints on Thursday night.

There are five undefeated teams left, with a couple more in serious danger of dropping a game for the first time this season. Do the football writers and experts from around the web think they have a shot at staving off defeat for another week? And which games are proving to be the most contentious picks? 

Here's a look at the teams some of the top football writers and commentators around the web are picking, along with the overall consensus from each site and a closer look at some of the tougher matchups to call in Week 6.

Matchup	Matt Miller, Bleacher Report	Merril Hoge, ESPN	Matt Ufford, SB Nation	Alex Marves, Fox Sports	Pete Prisco, CBS Sports	Consensus (# of picks from listed contributors at each site)
WAS vs. NYJ	NYJ	NYJ	NYJ	NYJ	NYJ	NYJ 40-3
AZ vs PIT	AZ	PIT	AZ	AZ	AZ	AZ 36-7
KC vs. MIN	MIN	MIN	MIN	MIN	MIN	MIN 42-1
CIN vs. BUF	CIN	CIN	BUF	CIN	CIN	CIN 37-6
CHI vs. DET	DET	CHI	DET	DET	DET	DET 28-15
DEN vs. CLE	DEN	DEN	DEN	DEN	DEN	DEN 36-7
HOU vs. JAX	HOU	HOU	JAX	JAX	JAX	JAX 27-14
MIA vs. TEN	MIA	MIA	TEN	MIA	TEN	MIA 24-19
CAR vs. SEA	SEA	SEA	SEA	SEA	SEA	SEA 40-3
SD vs. GB	GB	GB	GB	GB	GB	GB 43-0
BAL vs. SF	BAL	SF	BAL	SF	SF	SF 28-15
NE vs. IND	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE 43-0
NYG vs. PHI	NYG	NYG	PHI	PHI	NYG	PHI 22-21

Note: Picks are from Bleacher Report, CBS Sports, Fox Sports, ESPN and SB Nation.

Tough Calls

Houston Texans (1-4) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4)

Of course, this wasn't a fun choice for prognosticators. Blake Bortles is only just showing signs of turning the corner at quarterback, while Houston has been busy flip-flopping between Ryan Mallett and Brian Hoyer as starter. 

It's a young QB versus a starter with little job security, some great skill players sprinkled in and two of the league's poorest defenses. It's a tricky prediction.

One would've thought Houston might turn things around with Arian Foster's return from a groin injury, but the talented back hasn't yet found a groove, or even a sliver, running behind his offensive line. He's picked up just 57 yards on 21 carries in the past two weeks. This puts all kinds of pressure on one of Hoyer or Mallett, who have generally had trouble throwing to anyone not named DeAndre Hopkins (578 yards, three touchdowns) this year. 

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

Hoyer will be the starter against the Jags, whose inefficient defense ranks just 24th in the league in defensive value over average (DVOA), per Football Outsiders. Hoyer tore up Indianapolis last time out, completing 77 percent of his passes for 312 yards and two TDs against one pick. He'll likely need to have similar success on Sunday, as Bortles is coming off a top-shelf performance of his own.

Bortles threw four touchdowns in a tough 38-31 loss to Tampa Bay in Week 5. Wide receiver Allen Robinson snagged two touchdown passes, while Allen Hurns racked up 166 receiving yards and another score. All three players are NFL sophomores and look to be forming a very solid offensive nucleus in the Florida panhandle.

CBS Sports' Pete Prisco noted Bortles does his best when he gets to scan the field: 

A likely impediment to Bortles' success in Week 6—or really, any quarterback's—is one J.J. Watt. He's the league's most talented defender, and he does some of his best work against Jacksonville, per ESPN's Mike DiRocco: 

"

Watt has recorded more sacks against the Jaguars in his career than all but one team he has faced, and he has sacked Bortles six times in two meetings, which makes Bortles the second-most sacked QB of Watt’s career.

That doesn’t bode well for Sunday’s matchup with Houston. Watt can line up anywhere, but he has spent the majority of the time this season lined up on the left side of the defensive formation. That means he’ll be going against rookie right guard A.J. Cann and right tackle Jermey Parnell, who is nursing a sore knee.

"

Tight end Julius Thomas is still getting into the flow of things after making his 2015 debut in Week 5. His ability to serve as safety valve for Bortles will be key to Jacksonville's success in this game.

Miami Dolphins (1-3) vs. Tennessee Titans (1-3)

Alan Diaz/Associated Press

After a 1-3 start, the Dolphins fired head coach Joe Philbin and named tight end coach Dan Campbell as interim head coach. With the Fins holding a bye in Week 5, Sunday marks Campbell's first game in charge of an underachieving team. With little to lose in charge of a team playing far worse than its talent suggests it should, Campbell has taken to shaking things up in practices, per USA Today's Lorenzo Reyes: 

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Something was missing, so Dolphins interim coach Dan Campbell stopped practice.

He ordered the team’s first-string offense to line up against the starting defense, even though neither unit looks much like this week’s opponent. That was irrelevant, he said. He wanted to see each side get the best out of the other. The scout team would have to wait a few plays.

"

According to Reyes, Campbell has also started practices with games of tug-o-war and the hard-hitting Oklahoma drill. He's hoping it's enough to wake the Dolphins up.

Quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who threw for over 4,000 yards and 27 touchdowns last year, has thrown just seven scores against five picks this season. Lamar Miller is averaging 3.5 yards per carry after picking up more than five per tote in 2014. High-profile acquisition Ndamukong Suh is yet to record a sack. Other talented players such as Greg Jennings, Jordan Cameron and Brent Grimes aren't performing as well as they could. 

Not all the blame is shouldered by the players. Offensive coordinator Bill Lazor has said he wishes he could've done better for Philbin and the team.

“My first reaction was a sense of disappointment in that I let him down,” he said, relayed by ESPN's James Walker. “We hadn’t performed as a team well enough. It’s just disappointing. I respect him. I appreciate the opportunity that I had to work for him. I kind of look at it as wishing I had done some things better.”

If this team loses to Tennessee, it could be looking at a true Page 1 rewrite, with big offseason shakeups to come. 

James Kenney/Associated Press

The Titans are led by rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota (eight touchdowns, three interceptions), who has experienced some of the typical growing pains expected of a young signal-caller but is also showing some advanced skills and decision-making, per Football Outsiders' Cian Fahey: 

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Most quarterbacks struggle to make full-field coverage reads. Even at the highest professional level, many, many quarterbacks will occasionally struggle to execute a play with this efficiency. The best quarterbacks in the league are not only able to cycle through progressions quickly and accurately, but they do it with great consistency.

Mariota will need more time to establish his consistency, but so far he has consistently made good decisions to attack defenses. Whether it's getting rid of the ball quickly against pressure, recognizing when his first read will come open, executing the correct option on package plays, or finding a second or third read in his progression at the perfect time, Mariota has offered up numerous examples of his ability to this point.

"

Miami's secondary can't expect to suffocate Mariota despite his subpar supporting cast. This makes the pass rush all the more important to the outcome of this game. Suh has been largely ineffective, and defensive end Cameron Wake has played just once this year and has been limited in practice, per his team's official site. 

Tennessee's running backs haven't been much to get excited about. Bishop Sankey and Dexter McCluster are picking up solid chunks of yardage when given the ball, but the team is still middle of the pack (14th) in terms of total yards per game, even with Mariota making plays with his legs.

Unless Tannehill and Miller rediscover their form from 2014—and help will have to come from a mediocre offensive line—Mariota won't be under all that much pressure to put up big point totals. The Titans have quietly built a strong defense, with Jurrell Casey and Derrick Morgan combining for eight sacks in four games and safety Michael Griffin putting together another strong campaign.

New York Giants (3-2) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (2-3)

Seth Wenig/Associated Press

Were it not for a pair of late collapses to start the season, the New York Giants could very well be undefeated at this point. Then again, they were a last-second Larry Donnell touchdown catch—which he briefly pinned to his helmet in shades of David Tyree—from capitulating to a poor San Francisco 49ers squad in Week 5. 

It's been a wild ride for New York to say the least. The same can be said for Philadelphia, still looking for some consistency with a number of new players learning to coexist under head coach Chip Kelly. The team may have turned a corner in a 39-17 Week 5 win over New Orleans, and the Eagles could hit their stride at home against New York in a big NFC East contest.

The Giants have had trouble getting off the field on defense this year. According to stats passed along by Grantland's Bill Barnwell, New York has allowed teams to convert on 46.6 percent of third downs this year. The last thing you want to do is let a Kelly offense build up a full head of steam with a few easy conversions.

Running back DeMarco Murray finally got his touches last time out and repaid his team's generosity to the tune of 120 all-purpose yards and one touchdown. Sam Bradford has thrown five touchdowns in his last two games. Darren Sproles is a fine third-down or change-of-pace back, as is the versatile Ryan Mathews.

All players figured in a stirring offensive display against New Orleans, accomplished despite the Eagles converting on just 36 percent of third downs. Letting this team get into easy third-down situations could spell doom for any defense.

However, it's worth noting that while Philly has the talent to score from anywhere on the field, their offensive outbreak was aided heavily by Saints turnovers. Drew Brees lost two fumbles and threw a pick, while tight end Michael Hoomanawanui lost another fumble.

Philadelphia has been one of the more opportunistic teams in the league, but the Giants have been one of the league's best caretakers, with just three turnovers from five games.

Two of those are Eli Manning interceptions. This isn't a problem for two reasons: He's thrown for 10 touchdowns, and because of how much time he's spent chucking the ball, his interception rate is just 1 percent, per ESPN. He's also been sacked just four times, although the likes of Fletcher Cox and Connor Barwin could change that on Monday.

Michael Zagaris/Getty Images

What could really slow Manning down is injuries to his skill players. Odell Beckham Jr. didn't practice on Thursday —Philly corner Brandon Browner is probably breathing a sigh of relief—and fellow wide receiver Rueben Randle was limited, per the team's official website. The absence of either wideout would be a huge blow for Manning; the loss of both could quite literally hamstring this offense, as the rushing attack has been underwhelming this year.

Rashad Jennings is capable of grinding out the tough yards, and Shane Vereen has been a fine threat in the passing game, but neither has really established himself as a dangerous runner. The same goes for Andre Williams, who is picking up just three yards a carry.

Manning showed plenty of veteran grit and acumen on his long game-winning drive against San Francisco. He did it without Beckham or Randle on the field. He's proved to be excellent in the clutch this year. However, it would be highly unlikely he could keep up with the Eagles offense for four quarters without his best players out there.

The Giants defense will have to force turnovers or learn to get off the field and return the Eagles to their dysfunctional ways to win this game.