Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Houston Texans are 7-2 straight up in their last nine AFC South battles with the Jaguars, while Jacksonville is 4-1 against the spread over the last five meetings, each time out as a divisional-rival underdog. But are either of these 1-4 teams worthy of a wager heading into Sunday's meeting at EverBank Field?

Point spread: This game opened as a pick 'em; the total was 43 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 25.4-19.5 Jaguars

Why the Texans can cover the spread

It's difficult to make a case for Houston, which is 1-4 after a 27-20 loss at home to the Indianapolis Colts last Thursday; instead, here's a case against Jacksonville.

The Jags are also 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS this season after losing at Tampa Bay last week 38-31. Jacksonville led by a point late in the third quarter, but a fumbled kickoff return turned into a Buccaneers touchdown. The Jaguars then went three-and-out on their next possession, allowed Tampa to immediately drive for another score and that was the ballgame.

Jacksonville got outrushed by the Buccaneers 183-55 and lost time of possession by a 35-25 margin, and that's how you lose games and money in the NFL.

The Jags' only victory this season came over the Miami Dolphins, and that doesn't exactly qualify as a “quality” victory. And two weeks ago, they lost to a Colts team without Andrew Luck. Betting on Jacksonville is still an iffy proposition.

Why the Jaguars can cover the spread

As outlined above, it's tough making a case for backing the Jags. Instead, here's the case against Houston.

The Texans just lost at home to the Colts, still without Luck, 27-20, falling outright as five-point favorites. Houston fell down 13-0 in the second quarter and never recovered, getting within one score three different times but never grabbing a lead.

On the night, the Texans lost the ground battle by a 110-82 margin and allowed Colts backup quarterback Matt Hasselbeck to relive some of his former glory days. They also lost the turnover battle 2-0 with help from a terrible interception by Brian Hoyer as Houston was trying to drive for the tying score in the last couple of minutes.

The Texans' only victory this season came over Tampa Bay, and that's not exactly quality, either. Houston actually ranks fifth in the league in total offense and 11th in total defense; it's just so darn unreliable.

Smart pick

Neither of these teams seems deserving of financial backing, so the smartest choice on this game is probably just to cross it off the sheet, keep your money in your pocket and move on.

Betting trends

The Texans are 1-5 ATS in their last six games.

The Jaguars are 1-13 SU in their last 14 games in October.

The Jaguars are 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six games at home in October.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, and all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.