NFL Picks and Predictions Week 6: The Ultimate Bettor's Guide

Last week was another winning week for us. Overall, we went 7-5-1. The story was the same as the rest of the season: Doing very well in the early games but slowly losing that momentum in the later games. Luckily, we still managed to go 4-1 in our Locks of the Week.

Our top bet was the Bears covering a 10-point spread against the Chiefs as road dogs. They won straight up after a great comeback. Arizona also blew out the Lions; the Bengals came from behind to beat the Seahawks; and the Eagles won by 22 at home against the Saints.

Our one blemish as far as locks were concerned was the St. Louis Rams not covering a 9.5-point spread at Lambeau Field against the Green Bay Packers. If quarterback Nick Foles doesn't throw just one of those game-changing interceptions when they were driving, or if the Rams could have hit those two manageable field goals they missed, this game would have given us a perfect 5-0 for the week. I'd make that bet again if given the chance.

We have some great wins under our belt this season, but these lines have been the hardest for me to pick all year. Many of them would be labeled as "square" bets by contrarian bettors. In my opinion, Vegas books are being pressured by one another to refrain from larger movements of lines, when they should be adjusting further heading into Week 6 of the NFL season.

Every week we read about how books are losing big money on huge favorites. We're going to take advantage of them this week. Usually, it's best to align yourself with a book, but the late and prime-time games just keep hammering both us and Vegas.

All picks ATS: 40-31-1 (.563)

Locks of the Week ATS: 16-10 (.615)

Thursday Night Football: Atlanta @ New Orleans

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Result: New Orleans Saints 31, Atlanta Falcons 21

The Atlanta Falcons headed into the week with a 5-0 record but just a 2-3 record against the spread. To put it simply, they've really just been squeaking by teams to get these wins. That's not a knock. Getting into a position to keep a game within one score at the NFL level takes a tremendous amount of talent, but they weren't burning down houses like the Patriots, Cardinals and Packers did in the first five weeks of the season.

One too many slip-ups forced this game the Saints' way. We were all expecting this to come at some point. The Falcons aren't "frauds." That's a crazy thing to say. Maybe it was just a short-week issue, but the fact that an offensive line that has been praised for its improvement, Devonta Freeman (the talk of the fantasy football world this season), Matt Ryan (a supposed franchise quarterback) and Julio Jones (who has been called the top receiver in 2015) could only post 21 points on a New Orleans defense that has been pedestrian at best is concerning.

Only one team has scored fewer points on the Saints this season than Atlanta did on Thursday Night Football: the Brandon Weeden Cowboys. Dallas has since benched Weeden on its bye week, moving Matt Cassel, whom the team acquired from the Buffalo Bills in late September, into the starting role.

Cover: New Orleans

Denver @ Cleveland

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Opening line: Denver @ Cleveland (+3.5)

Current line: Denver @ Cleveland (+4)

Cleveland Browns quarterback Josh McCown has thrown for 1,154 yards and six touchdowns in the three games he both started and finished this season. With that being said, he managed to hit those numbers against the Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers and Baltimore Ravens.

Oakland and Baltimore don't have top cornerbacks, while San Diego and Baltimore are missing a pass rush. Against the Denver Broncos, McCown will go from playing pitch and catch to going head-to-head with the best defense in the league.

DeMarcus Ware, an All-Pro pass-rusher, is going to miss the game for Denver with a back issue, but throwing against Aqib Talib, Chris Harris and Bradley Roby with Derek Wolfe, Sylvester Williams, Malik Jackson and Von Miller, who might be the best edge-bender in the world, barreling down at you is a handful for any quarterback. That doesn't even include Brandon Marshall, the young linebacker who is becoming a star in his own right in coverage.

I know this line seems off. This line would mean that the Broncos would be 10-point favorites at home, when they've only won by a margin of victory of over a touchdown once, and it was against the winless Detroit Lions. Still, it's hard to imagine this team dropping this game to Cleveland, and the talent on the field is too great on defense. It's not out of the question that the Browns score single digits here.

Do I think the Broncos will win? Yes. Do I think it will be by more than a field goal? I'm iffy. I do think that there's a better chance the Broncos end up blowing Cleveland out of the water than losing this game, though, and that's what pushes me toward Denver.

The Broncos got lucky with some missed and blocked field goals from the Raiders last week, but the Browns also came down with what's going to be looked at as the weirdest catch of the season. The Browns are 5-0 against the spread, but the streak ends here.

The pick: Denver (-3.5)

Miami @ Tennessee

Mark Zaleski/Associated Press

Opening line: Miami @ Tennessee (-2.5)

Current line: Miami @ Tennessee (-2)

The Tennessee Titans have a better defense than the Miami Dolphins by a wide margin. They have three pressure players in Jurrell Casey, Brian Orakpo and Derrick Morgan. Their defensive backs unit is quietly top-five in the league. The Miami linebackers also might be the worst in the NFL.

On offense, Tennessee has the edge at quarterback, while both teams have liabilities in the backfield and on the offensive line. At receiver, I'd also give the nod to the Titans, though Miami's Jarvis Landry is going to be the better singular receiver on the field.

I get that the Dolphins are coming off a bye week and have a new "rah-rah" coach in hand who is running the Oklahoma drill instead of implementing much-needed scheme discipline, but Tennessee is the better team here. Maybe the Titans only get a two or 2.5-point home-field advantage, but they are much better than even or half-point favorites against what people were calling the worst team in football less than a week ago.

Miami Dolphins: No decisive wins, two close games (Washington and Jacksonville) and two decisive losses (Buffalo and the New York Jets).

Tennessee Titans: One decisive win (Tampa), two close games (Indianapolis and Buffalo) and one decisive loss (Cleveland).

We've seen the Dolphins short-circuit against a mobile quarterback before. As long as Marcus Mariota doesn't end up turning it over significantly against Miami (the team tied second-to-last in the league in caused turnovers with three in four games), give me Tennessee, so long as it's under a three-point spread. Easy money. 

The pick: Tennessee (-2)

Washington @ New York Jets

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Opening line: Washington @ New York Jets (-5.5)

Current line: Washington @ New York Jets (-5.5)

The best unit on the field will be the New York Jets defense, which is a top-five unit in the league. In their four games this season, the Jets have allowed just 10, seven, 24 and 14 points. The Washington Redskins have allowed 17, 24, 32, 20 and 25. New York is also coming off a bye week.

Right now, the elite teams on at least one side of the ball are Denver, Cincinnati, Arizona, Green Bay, New England and the Jets. Parlay everything you have this week with the New York money line. I can't imagine how it loses to Washington more than twice out of 10 times.

It's the second road game in a row for the Redskins, which makes it no better for them. I want to take the points for this pick, but there's just too much blowout potential for this Washington team. By the way, the Jets' best player, Sheldon Richardson, who may have been the most talented player in the 2013 draft class, is back from a suspension. Good look, Kirk Cousins.

Counting on a guy who just threw a game-ending pick-six in overtime isn't the best of strategies.

The pick: New York Jets (-5.5)

Kansas City @ Minnesota

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Opening line: Kansas @ Minnesota (-4.5)

Current line: Kansas City @ Minnesota (-3.5)

So much went on in that Kansas City game last weekend. As someone who picked the Chicago Bears, I was sweating if they were going to cover the double-digit spread at halftime, let alone win the game straight up. The first two touchdowns by the Chiefs were weird, though.

The first came on a sack-fumble recovery in the end zone. The second was on a De'Anthony Thomas swing out of the backfield, which is the most obvious play in Andy Reid's playbook. Last week I said that the Packers blowing up that same play was the turning point in the season, when teams could easily key on and predict what Kansas City was going to do in just about every situation.

Someone send my article to John Fox next time.

Still, the Bears rallied in the second half, scoring 15 straight to take a one-point win as double-digit underdogs on the road. Jay Cutler looked like a real-life quarterback, which may complicate his future with Chicago, considering his contract.

The future of the Chiefs is complicated too, as running back Jamaal Charles left with a brutal knee injury that was eventually diagnosed as a torn ACL, ending his season. He will turn 30 years old next year and is coming off his second major knee injury. That's not an ideal situation for a franchise with liabilities not only on the offensive line but at quarterback.

By the way, Pernell McPhee, Chicago's top defender, noted how vanilla the Chiefs were too. According to Rich Campbell of the Chicago Tribune, McPhee blocked what would have been an eventual game-deciding field goal after being enraged that Kansas City ran the ball at him three straight times.

You got that right: A team that is now without its one elite offensive skill player—the same team that is so entrenched in its ways that it ran at the strength of the Bears defense in an attempt to keep absolute consistency—now must switch up how its entire offense is built around its stud.

As long as Minnesota's Teddy Bridgewater isn't absolutely rattled by the Chiefs' pass rush, regression to the mean has the Vikings winning this at least 70 percent of the time. It's crazy to say, but both teams are about even on the defensive side of the ball, while the jump from Adrian Peterson to Charcandrick West is humongous.

Per numberFire, Kansas City was spotted a 97 percent win probability at one point last Sunday and blew it. I'm more than fine laying 3.5 points when the Chiefs have no idea how to function on offense just yet and are facing a team coming off a bye.

The pick: Minnesota (-3.5)

Cincinnati @ Buffalo

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Opening line: Cincinnati @ Buffalo (+1)

Current line: Cincinnati @ Buffalo (+3)

The Buffalo Bills struggled with the Tennessee Titans last weekend, who looked like the better team on paper but were far too conservative with their punting. Imagine if the Titans went from a below-average offensive line to an elite one and had two of the top 20 running backs in the league and a top-five receiver. That's basically what the Cincinnati Bengals are.

Like the Titans, the Bengals are creative offensively and run the option, even if you don't notice it. Quarterback Andy Dalton has had 12 touchdowns over the last four seasons. The key to beating the Buffalo Bills is getting the ball out quickly, taking advantage of their man coverage at the breaking points of routes and neutralizing their defensive linemen coming on the pass rush.

Last game, the Bills only had one drive over two minutes in the first half. Their time of possession marks in their first five drives read 0:53, 0:57, 1:51, 3:25 and 1:58, with all resulting in punts. Their offense just wasn't good enough to get their defense off the field, which meant the Bills defense was on the field for nearly 21 minutes in the first half, an astoundingly large amount.

Now word has come out that Tyrod Taylor has an MCL sprain in his knee and may miss this game altogether. Either (1) he's going to play on a semi-bum knee, limiting his only real positive as a quarterback, mobility, or (2) the team will start EJ Manuel, who lost his starting gig to Kyle Orton last year and Taylor this year after being the team's first-round selection in 2013.

Scary times in Buffalo, just a week following the Bengals' impressive come-from-behind victory over the Seattle Seahawks, which now validates their Super Bowl contender label in the eyes of many. Some might think that this is a letdown spot for Cincinnati, but it's the clearly talented team here. The Bills have beaten inferior teams (Colts, Dolphins and Titans) and have been punched in the mouth by contenders (Patriots and Giants) this year. That trend continues this week.

The pick: Cincinnati (-1)

Chicago @ Detroit

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Opening line: Chicago @ Detroit (-2.5)

Current line: Chicago @ Detroit (-3)

Why has this line moved to three points? Detroit is 0-5, losing three games, including twice at home, by double digits. The team put up fights against the Chargers and Seahawks on the road, but after the way that game ended in Seattle, when the Lions lost on a botched call by the referee at the end, this season is lost.

With Joe Philbin fired in Miami, the bloodthirsty media has since shifted their eyes to the Midwest where Jim Caldwell is their new target. Is this the week when pressure busts the pipes? After all, quarterback Matthew Stafford did get benched last weekend for Dan Orlovsky, who took the team to an 0-16 record in 2008, which led to the eventual selection of Stafford as the first overall pick.

Everything is too cyclical in Detroit.

Speaking of recurring themes, the Lions drafted another running back and still don't have a ground game. They've taken Ameer Abdullah, Mikel Leshoure and Jahvid Best as top-60 picks since 2010 but have a league-low 248 rushing yards, average a league-low 2.8 yards per carry and average a league-low 49 yards per game on the ground.

Leshoure and Best are now out of the league completely, while Abdullah has fumbled three times during his rookie year, more than 28 teams have their entire season. Those teams are Washington, Indianapolis, St. Louis and San Francisco, who have fumbled four times each on a combined 532 carries, and average one about every 33 carries. Abdullah has fumbled three times in 40 touches, once about every 13 handoffs.

I guess people are thinking of a spot play here, imagining that the Lions just can't go 0-6 at home, but why would the team rally around Caldwell? For who? For what?

Caldwell pulled the quarterback the team was built around after the Lions had already managed to seal their fifth loss of the season, matching their entire 2014 total in less than a third of the time. This was after losing two first-round defensive tackles in the same offseason.

Let's just look at the team's top-60 picks since 2010.

2010: Defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh was the team's first-round pick and was the second overall selection. He's now playing with the Miami Dolphins. As we already mentioned before, Best is out of the league.

2011: Defensive tackle Nick Fairley is now the fifth defensive lineman on a stacked St. Louis Rams team after being drafted 13th overall by the Lions. Titus Young, a receiver from Boise State, hasn't caught a pass in the NFL since 2012. Leshoure, like Best, has already been discussed.

2012: Riley Reiff is a liability as a left tackle but can be a solid right tackle in the NFL. After the first-round pick's rookie year, he's just missed one game, starting the other 36. Receiver Ryan Broyles was the second choice by the team in the 2012 draft, totaling 420 yards in his career, as he's now out of the league.

2013: This is the saving-grace class. Ezekiel Ansah was a one-year wonder at BYU but is blossoming into an elite pass-rusher after being selected fifth overall. Cornerback Darius Slay has started every game the past two seasons for the Lions, totaling 24 pass deflections and three interceptions since joining the team as a second-round pick.

2014: Eric Ebron, a rare top-10 tight end, caught 25 passes his rookie year and has 15 on this season but is now injured. Linebacker Kyle Van Noy, the 40th overall pick in last draft class, is now a healthy scratch, per last week's status against the Cardinals.

2015: Guard Laken Tomlinson was a surprise first-round pick by the team but has started three games this season. Abdullah, the Lions' second-round choice, is a fumble machine.

Of the team's 12 high draft choices from 2010 to 2015, three are out of the league (Best, Leshoure and Broyles), two are playing for other teams (Suh and Fairley), two are coming off the bench (Van Noy and Abdullah), one is transitioning into a starting role (Tomlinson) and another is injured (Ebron.) Only three (Reiff, Slay and Ansah) are impact players as it stands right now. If you only hit on a quarter of your picks early on, you're going to be a bad football team.

Don't give me any of this "How could anyone predict the Lions falling on their face after a playoff run?" talk. The writing was clearly on the wall, and we should have identified it when Fairley and Suh walked. I'm disappointing I didn't see it sooner.

Jay Cutler's Bears have kept it close with the Green Bay Packers, the newly inspired Oakland Raiders and the Kansas City Chiefs when he's been healthy. Even without him, they were only down a score heading into halftime with the Seattle Seahawks. This team has heart, which Detroit seemingly lacks.

The pick: Chicago (+3)

Houston @ Jacksonville

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

Opening line: Houston @ Jacksonville (PK)

Current line: Houston @ Jacksonville (+1)

I get it. The Houston Texans beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 10 for their only win this season, and the Jacksonville Jaguars are just coming off a loss to the Buccaneers.

There are some big differences between these two games, though. When the Texans beat Tampa in Houston, it was a slow grinding game in which Jameis Winston had to throw the ball 36 times and also featured the kicker missing three field goals. Against the Jaguars in Tampa, the Buccaneers won by a score when their kicker went 3-of-3 and Winston only threw 19 passes.

Overall, I would say the Texans defense is better than the Jaguars', while the Jaguars offense is better than the Texans'. This game is about a wash on paper, which means Jacksonville should be favored by two to three points at home, but it's a one-point dog. Huh?

Brian Hoyer was let go by the Cleveland Browns, who now have found their 36-year-old savior in Josh McCown, and was benched after Week 1 by Houston for a reason: He's not good. Why are the Texans getting a three- to four-point increase for playing him?

Blake Bortles finally is developing some confidence. If his defense can muster up one ounce of pride this week, the Jags come out with the win. There are four points of value on this line, even with Houston coming off Thursday Night Football. Need I remind you, the Texans, like Jacksonville, lost to a 40-year-old Matt Hasselbeck.

If the Jaguars don't set up blocks when the opposing team returns a punt this week, that'd be great.

The pick: Jacksonville (+1)

Arizona @ Pittsburgh

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Opening line: Arizona @ Pittsburgh (+3.5)

Current line: Arizona @ Pittsburgh (+3)

Pittsburgh is coming off a short week after earning a last-minute victory against the San Diego Chargers on Monday Night Football. Arizona is going across the country to play the game but has been practicing in West Virginia this week. Pittsburgh's trip back from San Diego couldn't have been easy on the team, either.

Bruce Arians is going to face his former team, which is missing its starting quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger. Michael Vick is doing fine as a replacement, but the Cardinals defense can scramble the brains of quarterbacks. For example: the entire San Francisco game when Colin Kaepernick threw a higher passer rating to Arizona than to his 49ers teammates.

The only 100-yard rusher the Cardinals have allowed this season is Todd Gurley, and one reason for that is they like to boat-race teams early, limiting them to having to throw the ball. If the Pittsburgh Steelers can't get Le'Veon Bell to make an impact in this game, it's going to be hard on them.

It's really hard on Pittsburgh's defense. Can it stall Carson Palmer and the renaissance of Chris Johnson long enough to get some points on the board? This year, the Steelers, while efficient, haven't been able to score often. They scored 21 against the Patriots, with the last meaningless touchdown coming in the final seconds of a multiple-score game; 43 against the San Francisco 49ers, who were coming across the country on a short week after an oddly last-second Monday Night Football game; 12 against the St. Louis Rams,; 20 against the Baltimore Ravens; and 24 against the Chargers, with the final score coming as the clock expired.

Just looking at the projected game flow of this matchup, it's real bad for Pittsburgh. If three points is going to net me a push, I'm taking the Cardinals.

The pick: Arizona (-3)

Carolina @ Seattle

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

Opening line: Carolina @ Seattle (-5.5)

Current line: Carolina @ Seattle (-7)

First, I'd like to thank linebacker Luke Kuechly for unscrambling his brain just in time to come back for the Carolina Panthers' fifth game. They are 4-0, with close wins at home against Houston and Tampa Bay and big wins on the road against the Jaguars and Buccaneers. We have no earthly clue if this team is good yet.

On the other hand, the Seattle Seahawks lost to the St. Louis Rams in an overtime game, lost by double digits to the Packers, only managed to score six points on the Jimmy Clausen Bears at home in the first half, scrapped away with a win against the now 0-5 Detroit Lions at home in prime time and blew a 17-point lead against the Cincinnati Bengals last weekend.

Marshawn Lynch is coming back for the Seahawks, but even when he played in the beginning of the season, he looked like a shell of himself. Maybe he just needed a couple weeks of rest. Maybe he's a 29-year-old running back. The load of the carries in Lynch's absence has gone to undrafted rookie Thomas Rawls, who has gone over the 100-yard mark twice in the past three weeks.

Arguably, Seattle has run better while Lynch has been out, so why are we to assume he's going to be a massive upgrade for the team now that he's back? He's not going to fix that offensive line, which allowed for him to get stuffed over and over against both the Rams and Packers in the first two weeks of the season. He's not going to fix the Seahawks' liability both at right corner with Cary Williams and whoever happens to be blowing coverage against a tight end on any given down.

To me, these teams are about even. Carolina has historically done well against Seattle too. Since the Panthers drafted Cam Newton, they've played in three regular-season games against the Seahawks. In all three of them, Seattle failed to score more than 16 points, and that was with a functional offensive line. All three games finished as one-score wins by the Seahawks, by margins of four, five and four.

Sure, CenturyLink Field is a hard place for teams to play, but seven points seems like a large spread for this Seahawks team to cover at this point in the season.

The pick: Carolina (+7)

San Diego @ Green Bay

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Opening line: San Diego @ Green Bay (-9.5)

Current line: San Diego @ Green Bay (-11)

Remember when I said the jig was up on both the Lions and the Chiefs offenses in the past two weeks? I'm going to echo that for the Packers for this week. Aaron Rodgers is Aaron Rodgers, but he can't throw to himself. Heading into this season, his top three receivers were slated to be Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and Davante Adams.

Nelson and Adams are the outside receivers, while Cobb had one of the best seasons, if not the best, from a slot receiver in 2014. When Green Bay picked Ty Montgomery, a falling star from Stanford, in the third round, many assumed he was going to be featured as a kick returner, but he's now had to play plenty of offensive snaps.

Why? Nelson and Adams are hurt.

Now everyone isn't the St. Louis Rams, who have a great defensive line that allows the back end of their defense to play short zones, but Rodgers is a scrambler who extends time and almost negates that pass-rusher. What happened against the Rams? The quarterback moved from the pocket, away from those edge defenders, and there often wasn't an open receiver to be found.

Green Bay brought back James Jones after stints with the Oakland Raiders and New York Giants, but his one and only positive attribute at his age is to know where he's supposed to be during a scramble drill, a situation where he's become Rodgers' favorite target.

Last week, Jones only caught two passes, a season low, and was targeted three times, a season low. He was able to net one catch for 65 yards, which helped the Packers get the 24-10 win, but St. Louis tested Green Bay in a way it's almost never been tested before: The Rams were going to dare Rodgers to beat their defense with his receivers on islands, begging for him to throw.

His completion percentage was the lowest it's been all year. His passer rating was the lowest it's been all year. His QB rating was half of what it's averaged this season. He also threw two interceptions in the game, the first time since the dawn of man he's completed to another team at Lambeau Field.

Nick Foles threw two brutal interceptions that cost the Rams points, and they missed two field goals that could have covered the game. Green Bay is 5-0 straight up but is 2-3 against the spread and would have been 1-4 nine times out of 10 if last week's game is repeated on those four crucial downs.

I don't care if this is thought of as a cliche "trap game" because the Packers have a bye next week. I don't care that the Chargers are coming off the West Coast on a short week. Philip Rivers is a top-five quarterback in the NFL, armed with a defense that features quality defensive backs. Green Bay is only sputtering by the standards of the Rodgers era, and a 10-point line is too high.

The pick: San Diego (+11)

Baltimore @ San Francisco

Gail Burton/Associated Press

Opening line: Baltimore @ San Francisco (+2)

Current line: Baltimore @ San Francisco (+2.5)

Are the Baltimore Ravens the better team on a neutral field? I wasn't buying the 49ers' hype after Week 1, and, since then, they've lost four games by an overall score of 137-55.

Despite the fact that the Ravens are 1-4, they haven't embarrassed themselves in one game this season. I can't trust San Francisco and Colin Kaepernick. Anything less than three points isn't giving Baltimore the credit it rightfully deserves.

The pick: Baltimore (-2.5)

Sunday Night Football: New England @ Indianapolis

Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

Opening line: New England @ Indianapolis (+7)

Current line: New England @ Indianapolis (+9)

There will be blood. This is the squarest bet of the week, but I can't imagine Tom Brady not eviscerating a poor Colts defense after Indy dumped Deflategate on his lap. Andrew Luck hasn't played in weeks, either. Perfect warm-up game! The Patriots are coming off an evisceration of Dallas, while Indianapolis is coming off a long break after Thursday Night Football.

Pats. Big.

The pick: New England (-7)

Monday Night Football: New York Giants @ Philadelphia

Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

Opening line: New York Giants @ Philadelphia (-3)

Current line: New York Giants @ Philadelphia (-4)

This line is broken. The New York Giants are a better team and should be no more than three-point underdogs. They have continued to post a two-score lead in every game they've played, with four of their five games featuring a fourth-quarter two-score lead. This team is two plays from being 5-0, while the Eagles have only won one decisive game this year, against the New Orleans Saints, who have the worst defense in the NFL.

Fans are finally seeing the Philadelphia offense they wanted to see in September, but it's a mirage when you consider the Eagles' results in the first four weeks of the season and who their Week 5 result came against.

The pick: New York Giants (+4)

Locks of the Week

Mary Altaffer/Associated Press

1. New England (-7) @ Indianapolis
2. Miami @ Tennessee (-2.5)
3. Cincinnati (-1) @ Buffalo
4. Houston @ Jacksonville (+1)
5. New York Giants (+4) @ Philadelphia

All lines courtesy of OddsShark.com.