Updated 2015 World Series Odds for Each of MLB's 8 Division Series Contenders
After a pair of Wild Card Round shutouts, the division-series matchups are now set and things get underway on Thursday on the American League side of things.
The Houston Astros topped the New York Yankees in a 3-0 win on Tuesday night behind another terrific start from ace Dallas Keuchel, and they will now take on the No. 1 seed Kansas City Royals.
Meanwhile, the other AL matchup pits the two hottest teams in the American League since the trade deadline against one another in the Toronto Blue Jays and Texas Rangers.
On the NL side of things, the Chicago Cubs bested the Pittsburgh Pirates 4-0 behind a four-hit shutout from Jake Arrieta as he continues his otherworldly second-half performance.
That sets the Cubs up to meet the rival St. Louis Cardinals in the playoffs for the first time. After things got heated in their final regular-season series, that promises to be must-see TV.
The other NL series figures to be pitching centric as the Los Angeles Dodgers and their pair of aces take on the New York Mets and arguably the deepest rotation of any of the postseason teams.
So now that the field has been whittled to eight teams, it's time for an updated look at each club's odds of putting together a playoff run that culminates in a World Series title.
Houston Astros (AL Wild Card Winner, No. 4 Seed)
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Team Overview
By most accounts, the Houston Astros are at least a couple years ahead of schedule with their surprise run to the postseason this year. They've seen one of the most dramatic rebuilding efforts in recent memory pay off much faster than expected.
Clearly the better team in a 3-0 shutout of the New York Yankees in the Wild Card Round game on Tuesday, they are now set to face the Kansas City Royals in the division series.
While they looked great on Tuesday, they were forced to burn ace Dallas Keuchel for that game. That means his one and only start of the ALDS will likely come in Game 3, so that immediately puts them at a disadvantage.
Collin McHugh takes the ball on Thursday, with some combination of Scott Kazmir, Lance McCullers and Mike Fiers to follow. Each of those guys has had their moments this season, but there is not a second ace in the bunch.
Then there is the matter of the do-or-die approach of their offense, which has made them a lot of fun to watch but also makes them susceptible to a cold streak at any time if the ball isn't leaving the yard.
If they can stay hot at the plate, get a couple quality starts from someone not named Dallas Keuchel and can get a strong performance from a bullpen that was shaky at best in the second half, they could make a run.
However, that's enough "ifs" for them to check in as the biggest underdog among the eight remaining contenders.
World Series Odds: 12-1
Kansas City Royals (AL Central Champs, No. 1 Seed)
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Team Overview
The Kansas City Royals thrived in the role of surprise contender and underdog last season, but they won't be sneaking up on anyone this year after posting the best record in the American League.
Their biggest strengths during their impressive run last year were defense, baserunning and a dominant bullpen, and those three areas remain strengths once again.
However, they are without All-Star closer Greg Holland, who underwent Tommy John surgery on Friday and will likely miss all of next season.
Granted, Wade Davis is a more-than-capable replacement in that role, as he converted 17 of 18 save chances and posted a 0.94 ERA on the year, but not having both of their late-inning guns hurts the overall depth of the pen.
The big question, though, and the reason their odds are relatively high is a starting rotation that posted a 4.34 ERA on the year.
Yordano Ventura pitched well in the second half and finally started to look like the front-line starter the team was hoping he would be, but beyond him the staff is shaky.
Johnny Cueto was not the ace the team hoped he would be after it traded for him at the deadline, as he posted a 4.76 ERA in 13 starts with Kansas City.
Edinson Volquez won 13 games with a 3.55 ERA, but he had a 4.55 ERA in his last 10 starts and clearly lost some steam down the stretch.
The final spot will likely go to 36-year-old Chris Young who led the team with a 3.06 ERA but did it in 18 starts and 16 relief appearances. He pitched beyond the fifth inning just nine times on the year, so counting on him for a quality start could be asking too much.
They could certainly find the magic of 2014 once again and make a run, but this team isn't entering the playoffs with the same head of steam last year's club had after battling for a wild-card spot to the final day.
World Series Odds: 10-1
Texas Rangers (AL West Champs, No. 3 Seed)
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Team Overview
Many expected the Texas Rangers to sell at the trade deadline, or at least to move upcoming free agent Yovani Gallardo, as the team was 50-52 on the year and was seven games back in the AL West.
Instead Texas went out and landed Cole Hamels in a blockbuster deal, then proceeded to go 38-22 the rest of the way to overtake the Houston Astros and win the division title.
So while the Rangers' overall record may not stack up to someone like the Kansas City Royals, they played as well as any team in baseball over the final two months.
The addition of Hamels certainly helped, as he went 7-1 with a 3.66 ERA in 12 starts, but getting Derek Holland and Martin Perez healthy proved to be equally important.
Gallardo and Hamels will take the ball in the first two games of the division-series matchup against the high-powered Toronto Blue Jays offense, with the starters for Game 3 and beyond still to be determined from the trio of Holland, Perez and Colby Lewis.
That rotation will be backed Sam Dyson (31 G, 1.15 ERA), Keone Kela (68 G, 2.38 ERA) and Shawn Tolleson (73 G, 35/37 SV, 2.99 ERA) in the late innings, as they look to prove they belong in the conversation for best bullpen trio.
On the offensive side, Shin-Soo Choo led all AL hitters in September with a .404 average and 26 runs scored, while Adrian Beltre had 61 RBI in 74 games after the All-Star break.
Throw in a healthy Prince Fielder and a breakout year of sorts from Mitch Moreland, and there is plenty of firepower to back a pitching staff that could surprise some people.
The biggest issue here is their division-series opponent, as the Blue Jays are a tough draw for anyone. That's especially true in a five-game series where David Price can pitch twice and three games will be in Toronto, where the team was 53-28 on the year.
World Series Odds: 8-1
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Chicago Cubs (NL Wild Card Winner, No. 4 Seed)
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Team Overview
A the beginning of the year, most would have called a winning record and some marked improvement by the young core a successful season from a Chicago Cubs.
After all, the team had averaged 93 losses and finished in last place each of the previous five seasons, and most had 2016 pegged as the year the rebuilding efforts would finally start to pay off.
Instead, the young core arrived sooner than expected and played beyond its years, Jake Arrieta emerged as the best pitcher in baseball with a historic second half and all the while the steadying hand of first-year Chicago manager Joe Maddon steered them toward the postseason.
Now after 97 wins and a 4-0 shutout of the Pittsburgh Pirates, they are set to meet the rival St. Louis Cardinals in the postseason for the first time ever.
Arrieta was brilliant once again on Wednesday with a four-hit shutout, but he'll only be available for one start in the division series.
That means $155 million man Jon Lester will need to step up and pitch like the ace the team expected him to be, and the postseason track record is certainly there as he's gone 6-4 with a 2.57 ERA in 84 career innings.
The big X-factor will be someone from the trio of Kyle Hendricks, Dan Haren and Jason Hammel emerging as the No. 3 starter, and there is some reason for optimism that will happen.
Hendricks closed out the year with three straight quality starts and a 1.50 ERA in 18 innings of work, while Haren had a pair of quality starts of his own to end the season in which he allowed just one run in 13.1 innings.
The Cubs looked completely overmatched in a three-game sweep against the Cardinals in St. Louis back in June, but they took six of 10 against them the rest of the way, including a pair of series in September. Momentum is on their side even if experience is not.
World Series Odds: 7-1
New York Mets (NL East Champs, No. 3 Seed)
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Team Overview
In terms of overall starting pitching depth, no team in this year's playoff field stacks up to the New York Mets.
Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey and rookie Steven Matz have been pegged to start the first four games of the postseason, but the team also has veterans Jon Niese and Bartolo Colon as capable arms if the matchup dictates them earning a start.
Meanwhile, the offense did a complete 180 after the acquisition of Yoenis Cespedes, as it went from a potentially unraveling weakness to a legitimate strength of the team.
He's joined in the middle of the lineup by a healthy David Wright, a quietly productive Curtis Granderson and a rejuvenated Lucas Duda, who had a .956 OPS in the second half.
The bullpen is young, but Jeurys Familia has been lights out aside from a few brief rough patches this year and rookie Hansel Robles and deadline pickup Tyler Clippard have been solid setup options.
In a seven-game series, this team would be an incredibly tough draw. But in order for that to be a factor, it will first need to first get past the Los Angeles Dodgers in a best-of-five series where the Mets don't hold home-field advantage.
Facing Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke in Dodger Stadium to kick off the division series is the biggest reason the Mets' odds of winning it all are not higher.
Quickly finding themselves down 0-2 in the NLDS would be a tough hole to climb out of, and that's a very real possibility considering how well the Dodgers play at home (55-26) and how good those two aces have been all season.
If they can find a way to weather that storm and advance to the NLCS, they could become the favorites in the National League, but they'll have their work cut out for them.
World Series Odds: 7-1
Los Angeles Dodgers (NL West Champs, No. 2 Seed)
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Team Overview
How far can the Los Angeles Dodgers ride the duo of Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke?
That will be the question this October for a team that is lacking rotational depth or a reliable bullpen but features two of the best pitchers in all of baseball.
This is also a significantly different looking team offensively after leaning heavily on the likes of Matt Kemp, Hanley Ramirez and Yasiel Puig in the playoffs the past two years.
Steady contributor Adrian Gonzalez remains in the middle of the order, but it will be up to guys like Justin Turner and Corey Seager to elevate their play and shoulder some the load this time around.
Brett Anderson will be the team's No. 3 starter, and as long as he's keeping the ball on the ground (NL-best ground-ball rate, per Fangraphs) he can be effective, but from there it wouldn't be surprising to see the team go to its dynamic one-two punch once again on short rest.
As for the aforementioned bullpen, it's the same story as last year.
Closer Kenley Jansen was lights out with a 2.41 ERA, 0.783 WHIP and 13.8 K/9 while converting 36 of 38 save chances, but finding guys who could consistently bridge the gap to him proved tricky all season.
Even setup man J.P. Howell, who posted a 1.43 ERA in 44 appearances, was hit hard to the tune of a .272 opponent batting average, and memories of last postseason's struggles may still be fresh in his mind.
It's hard to bet against a team with two elite arms in the division series, especially when it is playing host in those first two games and in a great position to jump out to an early 2-0 lead.
However, as far as winning the World Series goes, it will take a number of unexpected contributions for this Dodgers team to be hoisting the trophy when all is said and done.
World Series Odds: 7-1
St. Louis Cardinals (NL Central Champs, No. 1 Seed)
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Team Overview
The single biggest question for the St. Louis Cardinals right now is whether Yadier Molina will be able to play every day in the postseason while nursing a partially torn ligament in his left thumb.
He'll be wearing a splint in Game 1 of the NLDS to protect it, but it remains to be seen whether that will be a viable solution.
Veteran Matt Holliday summed up perfectly just how much he means to the team while talking with Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.
"I think the one constant of having Yadi back there is he makes everybody feel comfortable, from the pitchers to the position players to the leadership in the locker room. Just knowing that Yadi is back there, is almost like a comfort zone.
I think having him healthy and having him with us every day is a real key for us no matter what else is going on out there. It’s not his batting average or his home runs. It’s more than that.
Guys don’t want to disappoint Yadi.
"
The Cardinals have found ways to win all season despite one injury after another to key players, and even the loss of All-Star starter Carlos Martinez in September looks like it can be overcome as a playoff rotation of John Lackey, Michael Wacha, Jaime Garcia and Lance Lynn still looks formidable.
However, it's hard to see this team winning it all without its leader.
The Cardinals are 88-48 (.647) with him in the lineup this year, compared to 12-14 (.462) without him.
The pitching staff has a 2.79 ERA with him behind the plate, compared to a 3.49 ERA with anyone else doing the catching.
To put it simply, with Yadi behind the plate, the Cardinals are World Series contenders and without him, they're not.
World Series Odds: 6-1
Toronto Blue Jays (AL West Champs, No. 2 Seed)
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Team Overview
The addition of David Price at the deadline in July and a healthy Marcus Stroman in September has taken the Toronto Blue Jays from offensive juggernaut with serious questions about the rotation to World Series front-runner.
Price was 9-1 with a 2.30 ERA in 11 starts with the team, while Stroman returned from what was expected to be a season-ending torn ACL in spring training to go 4-0 with a 1.67 ERA in four starts down the stretch.
Throw in a breakout season from Marco Estrada (13-8, 3.13 ERA) and another workhorse performance from veterans Mark Buehrle (15-8, 3.81 ERA, 198.2 IP) and R.A. Dickey (11-11, 3.91 ERA, 214.1 IP) and suddenly the rotation looks like a real strength.
However, this team is still built on offense, and it produced plenty of it this year in scoring 5.5 runs per game and 127 more runs than any other team.
All of that said, there are still some question marks.
While the Blue Jays were dominant at the Rogers Centre with a 53-28 record, they were actually below .500 on the road at 40-41.
They will also be turning to 20-year-old Roberto Osuna to close out games under the bright lights of October.
He was terrific for much of the season, converting 20 of 23 save chances with a 2.58 ERA, but he had an 8.53 ERA with two losses and a blown save in his last eight appearances of the regular season.
Still, this team looks to have all the pieces to make a legitimate run at winning it all in its first postseason appearance since hoisting the trophy back in 1993.
World Series Odds: 4-1
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted.
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