Week 5 NFL Picks: Spread Tips, Odds Predictions and More Advice

The Seattle Seahawks caught a major break against the Detroit Lions in their Week 4 Monday night game at CenturyLink Field.

The Lions had the ball trailing 13-10 late in the fourth quarter, but when Matthew Stafford hit stud wideout Calvin Johnson in stride with a short pass, it looked like he would cross the goal line and give the Lions a late lead that might help them secure their first win.

But Kam Chancellor would have none of it. He punched ball out of Johnson's left arm, and K.J. Wright was in position to fall on the ball in the end zone and give the Seahawks a touchback. But inexplicably, Wright batted the ball past the end line, and just as inexplicably, the back judge did not throw the flag for illegal batting.

If he had, the Lions would have been awarded the ball from inside the 1-yard line, because that was the spot where Johnson lost the ball.

The NFL's mistake was the Seahawks' good fortune. They held on to win the game and square their record at 2-2.

However, this week they go to Cincinnati to take on the hard-charging and undefeated Bengals. The Seahawks lost two earlier road games before squaring their record against the winless (at the time) Chicago Bears and Lions.

The Seahawks do not appear to be the same team that went to two consecutive Super Bowls and won one of them. The defense remains solid, but the offensive line is in shambles, and Marshawn Lynch has been troubled by hamstring issues. 

Russell Wilson was sacked six times Monday night by the Lions, and he was under pressure throughout the game. If he wasn't so elusive, he could have been sacked 10 times or more.

The Seahawks appear to be in trouble against the well-rounded Bengals. Quarterback Andy Dalton (1,187 yards, 9-1 TD-interception ratio) is throwing the ball as well as he ever has, and A.J. Green (25-417-3) is making big plays downfield. Marvin Jones is getting the job done as a secondary receiver, and the Bengals defense has been effective. Carlos Dunlap has 3.5 sacks, and the Seahawks may not be able to stop him.

Even though the Bengals are 4-0, they are just a three-point favorite over the Seahawks, according to OddsShark. In the past, this was just the kind of game the Seahawks would win, because they appear to have an edge in toughness and nastiness. However, these Seahawks have a fundamental weakness on the offensive line, and that's why the Bengals should win this game by more than three points.

Game	Line	Over-Under	Selection
Indianapolis at Houston	NL	--	Indianapolis
Washington at Atlanta	Atl. -8	48	Washington; Under
Cleveland at Baltimore	Balt. -7	43.5	Cleveland; Over
Seattle at Cincinnati	Cin. -3	43	Cincinnati; Under
St. Louis at Green Bay	GB -10.5	46	Green Bay; Over
Chicago at Kansas City	KC -10.5	44.5	Kansas City; Under
New Orleans at Philadelphia	Phil. -4.5	49.5	New Orleans; Under
Jacksonville at Tampa Bay	TB -2.5	42	Tampa Bay; Under
Buffalo at Tennessee	Buff. -1	41.5	Buffalo; Over
Arizona at Detroit	2.5	44	Arizona; Over
New England at Dallas	NE -10	50	New England: Under
Denver at Oakland	Den. -4.5	43.5	Oakland: Under
San Francisco at New York Giants	NYG -7.5	43	New York Giants: Under
Pittsburgh at San Diego	SD -3	45.5	San Diego; Under

Angry Chiefs should be ready to play their best game

After opening the season with a win over the Houston Texans, the Kansas City Chiefs have been nailed three games in a row by the Denver Broncos, Green Bay Packers and Cincinnati Bengals. All three of those teams are undefeated, and that's a partial explanation for why the Chiefs have come up short.

Head coach Andy Reid has a lot of work ahead of him. He has to convince his team that three losses in the first quarter of the season does not mean the season is over. Instead, he has to convince them they are still a good team that can come back and determine its own fate.

If his players believe him, the Chiefs have a grand opportunity in Week 5 against the mistake-prone Chicago Bears. Chicago was blanked by Seattle in its last road game and while the Bears returned home to steal a narrow victory over the Oakland Raiders, John Fox's team has plenty of issues on both sides of the ball.

The Chiefs should be able to unleash running back Jamaal Charles and wide receiver Jeremy Maclin on the Bears defense. Charles is clearly one of the best running backs in the league, and Maclin has two consecutive 100-yard receiving games.

That's huge for the Chiefs, who have been bereft of wide receiving talent in recent years.

The Bears should have a healthier Jay Cutler back in the lineup. He returned in Week 4, and while he threw a key fourth-quarter interception, he got another chance and led the Bears to a game-winning drive.

However, the Raiders did not have the pass-rushing ability of the Chiefs. Justin Houston and Tamba Hali are both capable of wreaking havoc on Cutler.

The step down in competition will turn this game into a rout in the Chiefs' favor.

Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images

Steelers have to find a way on the road

The Pittsburgh Steelers had the Baltimore Ravens on the ropes throughout their Week 4 Thursday night game.

Even though they were playing without Ben Roethlisberger, they had a double-digit second-half lead. But when they couldn't add to that lead because Josh Scobee was missing field-goal attempts, that breathed life into the Ravens.

Eventually, the Ravens won the game in overtime, and that was heartbreaking for the Steelers. 

While Pittsburgh outplayed Baltimore for much of the game, head coach Mike Tomlin did not allow quarterback Mike Vick to ever cut it loose. He opted for a conservative game plan.

That seems to be counter to the Steelers' strengths. With an outstanding receiver like Antonio Brown, there doesn't seem to be a good reason for playing conservative football. If Tomlin lets Vick open it up a bit, they should be able to score with the San Diego Chargers this week.

The Chargers love to attack and play aggressive offensive football at home with Philip Rivers leading the way, and if Tomlin doesn't let Vick respond in kind, this game could get away from Pittsburgh.

With one more week of practice, Vick should be sharper. He should also be able to keep the Steelers within the three-point spread and possibly find a way to steal this game.