Miami vs. Florida State Complete Game Preview
After four lower-profile games each for Miami and Florida State, this weekend is when things really start to heat up in the Sunshine State.
No. 12 Florida State is coming off another underwhelming ACC road win in which the Seminoles remained undefeated by holding off a late charge by Wake Forest. Now Jimbo Fisher's team returns to Doak Campbell Stadium with some positives, some negatives and, most importantly, some injured players who may need to be replaced.
A 3-1 Miami team, on the other hand, has had an extra couple of days to reflect on its Thursday night loss at Cincinnati, where some familiar issues cost the Hurricanes against a Group of Five opponent. The embattled Al Golden must lead his team into its first, biggest and perhaps its toughest ACC matchup of the season.
While Florida State has won five straight in this series, things tend to be close between these two Florida rivals, as 11 of the last 14 meetings have been decided by a touchdown or less. Will Miami be able to hold onto a lead this year against Florida State under the bright lights of prime-time action?
Before heading into the full breakdown of this ACC rivalry clash, take a look at the basic info for the 2015 edition of Miami vs. Florida State:
Date: Saturday, October 10
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Location: Doak Campbell Stadium (Tallahassee, Florida)
TV: ABC
Line: Florida State -9.5, according to Odds Shark
Miami Keys to Victory
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Keep those chains moving
A real problem area for Miami in its loss to Cincinnati last week was third-down conversions. The Hurricanes are ranked second-worst out of 128 FBS teams in that category.
Miami converted three of 11 third-down attempts in a season-opening blowout over Bethune Cookman—and that 27.27 percentage rate has been its best so far this season. Against Cincinnati, Miami went just 4-of-15 offensively on third downs.
Since Florida State's defense is coming off a game in which it allowed several long drives of 12-plus plays to Wake Forest, Saturday night represents an opportunity for the Miami offense to bounce back in this category. With the Seminoles nursing a couple of injuries on that side of the ball, the Hurricanes need to focus on stringing out longer drives and wearing FSU down.
Bottle up FSU's rushing attack
Injuries will also be a potential issue on the offensive side of the ball for Florida State, as star running back Dalvin Cook is day-to-day with a hamstring injury, per Garry Smits of the Florida Times-Union. Furthermore, backup Mario Pender continues to stay out after a collapsed lung.
Miami needs to do a better job against the run this weekend, especially if the Seminoles won't be at full strength with Cook. While opponents have scored only three times on the ground through four games, Miami ranks 109th nationally in yards allowed per rush against FBS opponents.
If Florida State has to rely on the inexperienced Jacques Patrick and Johnathan Vickers out of the backfield, Miami could swing things its way by bottling up the Florida State rushing attack. That would force the Seminoles to rely on a transitioning passing attack against an opportunistic Miami secondary.
Cut down the penalties
Penalties are always rough on teams, but the ones Miami had against Cincinnati were real killers.
A Corn Elder punt-return touchdown came back because of a penalty, and several flags forced Miami's already woeful third-down offense into some tough situations against the Bearcats. Heading into its ACC opener, Miami is the second-most penalized team in the entire conference.
As the underdog away from home, Miami can't afford to give Florida State free yardage and more reasons for its home fans to get loud. The Hurricanes need to stay disciplined and stop shooting themselves in the foot with what could be game-changing mistakes against a team like FSU.
Florida State Keys to Victory
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Get off to a quicker start
Last season, Miami jumped out to a 16-0 lead on Florida State at home before Jameis Winston and the Seminoles had another one of their trademark comebacks in a 30-26 victory.
It's safe to say that this Florida State team doesn't look like last year's, and the younger Seminoles might not be able to rally from such a large deficit this time around. The offense hasn't proved to be capable yet of opening up scoring runs on quality opponents.
Statistically, Miami's defense has played much better in the second half than it has in the first—with the obvious exception of Nebraska's pass-heavy fourth-quarter comeback in Week 3. The Seminoles need to take advantage of that by getting off to a better start at home and pumping up the crowd in their first major test of the season.
Trust the passing game to deliver
After a pair of lackluster starts against USF and Boston College, Everett Golson showed signs of improvement against Wake Forest by throwing for 202 yards and a touchdown with a completion percentage of 64.5.
"He's showed his maturity, and just growing into what's there, making sure his team is in positions to win games," Fisher said, per Brendan Sonnone of the Orlando Sentinel. "Taking advantage of opportunities in the red zone. Third down has been pretty decent in protecting the football in those areas."
Golson has been turnover-free so far at FSU after struggling in that area last season as Notre Dame's quarterback. If Cook is unable to play Saturday, more pressure will be on Golson to make plays downfield for the offense. While Miami has picked off eight passes this season, big plays against this defense are definitely out there, as Nebraska and Cincinnati showed.
Improve the four-man pass rush
Florida State seemed to have a favorable matchup against a weak Wake Forest offensive line last weekend, but the Seminoles were unable to take advantage with its pass rush.
"Getting pressure with just four rushers will be critical for FSU's success against Miami and competent dual-threat quarterback Brad Kaaya," Sonnone wrote. "The Hurricanes do not get sacked frequently and have enough downfield weapons to beat FSU vertically, meaning there's an extra emphasis on getting to Kaaya with four defenders this week."
Florida State's back seven will have its hands full with what Miami can bring in terms of balance out of the backfield. The spotlight will be on the defensive line to generate enough pressure on Kaaya, who hit FSU for 316 yards through the air last season on just 16 completions.
Miami Players to Watch
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QB Brad Kaaya
Brad Kaaya has had a solid beginning to his second season as Miami's starting quarterback. He's above the 60 percent mark for completions and has a ratio of five touchdowns to one interception with 1,094 yards in four games.
Kaaya will consistently challenge a tough Florida State pass defense that is ranked fourth in the country in yards allowed per attempt. Last weekend, Wake Forest completed 62.8 percent of its passes against the Seminoles, which was the highest of any FSU opponent this season.
The sophomore quarterback also brings some improved footwork in the pocket. Kaaya doesn't get yardage on the ground—in fact, he's at minus-21 rushing yards on the season—but he doesn't get sacked often. He'll create enough space for himself in order to make plays downfield.
RB Joseph Yearby
Joseph Yearby is an excellent backfield weapon next to Kaaya for the Hurricanes. He's averaging an impressive 7.31 yards per carry this season and has rushed for more than 100 yards against all three of Miami's FBS opponents.
Even though the offensive line has been far from outstanding this season, Yearby continues to make things happen for the Hurricanes. He's also a playmaker in the passing game, as he caught three passes for 97 yards and a touchdown against Florida Atlantic earlier this season.
While teammate Mark Walton has been more of a grind-it-out running back with five touchdowns and 184 yards this season, Yearby is the most consistent big-play threat on the roster for Miami.
CB Corn Elder
One of the most active defensive backs in the entire country so far this season, Corn Elder has six pass breakups and an overtime interception to his name in 2015. His play is catching the eyes of people at the next level.
"He's a lights-out cover corner at the University of Miami," Bleacher Report's Matt Miller wrote. "Scouts are raving about him, and for good reason. Per Pro Football Focus, Elder is the top-ranked cornerback in the nation so far."
In addition to locking down Florida State's receivers Saturday, Elder will also be a weapon in the special teams game. He's averaging 15.78 yards per punt return this season, and he came close to joining Maryland's Will Likely last weekend as the only players to have two punt-return touchdowns in 2015.
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Florida State Players to Watch
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DE DeMarcus Walker
While Fisher was unhappy about the pass rush against Wake Forest last Saturday, defensive end DeMarcus Walker had his best game of the season. The junior had a season-high five tackles and 1.5 sacks in addition to a forced fumble in the victory over the Demon Deacons.
As previously mentioned, defensive linemen such as Walker will receive extra attention this weekend when Florida State goes after Kaaya with a four-man rush. After a great performance, Walker sounds ready for the challenge.
"[Pass rush is] very important because [Kaaya] is a great athlete," Walker told Sonnone. "He can make stuff happen with his feet."
DB Trey Marshall
Another defensive player who stood out against Wake Forest was "star" back Trey Marshall, who was named an ACC Co-Defensive Back of the Week with Pittsburgh's Terrish Webb.
Marshall had 11 tackles against Wake Forest and was instrumental in keeping the Demon Deacons from hitting the Seminoles for chunk plays downfield. Wake Forest only scored 16 points in the contest as Marshall kept most everything in front of him defensively.
His "star" position in the defensive backfield will be important against a balanced offense such as the one Miami will use Saturday night. Look for him to be a tackle machine once again for the Seminoles against the run and the pass.
The running backs
For the second straight weekend, the running backs receive the spotlight here because of their injury status. Florida State averaged 127 rushing yards on just 21 carries against Wake Forest, but those numbers are deceiving—Dalvin Cook got 94 of them on just one touchdown carry in the first quarter.
After Cook went down with his hamstring injury, Florida State struggled to move the ball efficiently on offense with backup Johnathan Vickers.
Even if Cook is good to go for Saturday night's game against Miami, true freshman Jacques Patrick is expected to play a bigger role in the offense. Florida State fans will definitely be ready to see what the 6'3" running back can bring to an offense that could use a spark.
What They're Saying
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Miami
Head coach Al Golden on the matchup versus Florida State, per Andrea Adelson of ESPN.com:
"This obviously a big game for us and something we're excited about. Regardless of the outcome on Saturday night, the fact remains we have to be consistent and move forward. It's not really about this game. This game is always going to be a big game. It's really about response and our quest to be a consistent team week in and week out and we weren't (against Cincinnati).
"
Quarterback Brad Kaaya after the Hurricanes' loss to Cincinnati, per Manny Navarro of the Miami Herald:
"Of course we’re upset. We hate losing. But everyone owned up to it. There wasn’t really much pouting. Guys kept their heads high. We all know what we have to work on to get better. This team will bounce back.
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Former Heisman-winning quarterback Gino Torretta on Miami's offense, per Susan Miller Degnan of the Miami Herald:
"At some point in time you have to take over the game yourself as a player and you have to hate losing so much that you do whatever you need to do to get in the end zone. The players are the ones who have to execute. Look at all the great teams. There are certain times the offensive line, or whomever, says, ‘Hey, the game’s on us. We’ll take over.’ Or defensively, ‘Hey, the game’s on us.’ You need that on any successful team. You have to hate losing that much that you can’t be denied scoring, converting a third down, stopping a third down — whatever.
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Florida State
Head coach Jimbo Fisher on the rivalry game, per Seminoles.com:
"[The Seminoles] know the Miami rivalry. They know what it means. [Miami] has a great program. We’ve got a great program. We have a lot of respect for them. They have a lot of respect for us. Two teams are going to go play their tails off. They definitely do that. They move the ball very well. They’re running the ball good with [running backs] Joe Yearby and Mark Walton. They’ve got a nice offense. They do a good job.
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Fisher on Miami quarterback Brad Kaaya, per Tom D'Angelo of the Palm Beach Post:
"Brad’s got a good grasp on what they’re doing. You can see mastery at the line of scrimmage, so much more comfortable, making more calls. You see him communicating with so many other guys in a quicker manner and knowledge of what’s going on. You just see his maturity. He’s a really, really good player.
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Defensive back Jalen Ramsey on the defensive struggles versus Wake Forest, per Corey Clark of the Tallahassee Democrat:
"We stick together as a team; we stick together as a defense. So we knew when guys were getting penalties, we weren’t doing it on purpose. They were very incidental things that we have not had happen to us a lot this year, but they happened (on Saturday). That’s football. We just have to stay together and bounce back.
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Prediction
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Saturday night marks the start of huge stretches for Miami and Florida State—and those stretches will define their 2015 seasons. On top of all the rivalry hype and prime-time buzz, a win here will go a long way in determining if either side is a true ACC title contender.
Florida State is banged up right now without Cook, safety Nate Andrews and linebacker Terrance Smith. That opens the door for Miami to take advantage in a number of key areas if the Hurricanes can correct some of the woes that plagued them against Cincinnati.
The Seminoles have already been tested in ACC play this season, but this will be the first big-game atmosphere for a lot of new starters. They've shown they can grind out wins as decent-sized favorites on the road, but how will they handle the pressure of this nationally televised contest?
If Cook is able to play, then Florida State should move the ball effectively against this Miami defense and open up things downfield for an improving Golson. If Cook doesn't play, that would put a lot of strain on some young running backs. When Miami has the ball, look for the 'Canes to keep the FSU defense off-balance with the play-action work between Kaaya and Yearby.
Florida State had a letdown performance last weekend against Wake Forest, but this team will be fired up to get a big win over a rival. Expect top-notch kicker Roberto Aguayo to play a big role in finishing drives—an area Miami struggled mightily with against Cincinnati—in another tight, grind-it-out victory for the Seminoles.
Prediction: Florida State 26, Miami 20
Unless otherwise noted, statistics courtesy of cfbstats.com.
Justin Ferguson is a college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
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